Random cubs/baseball talks

[chibears55]

As we get closer to July and trades...
Looking ahead for Playoffs roster
My opinion

High percentage of me right now thinks the Cubs will stay as is with position player..
Just think theo will stick with his guys at least through this year to get the job done...
Be very surprise if he makes a mega trade for someone..

Very Small chance they may go big for starter like DeGrom or Hamels, guess it depends on what they get from Hendricks Darvish and Quintana these next couple weeks...
Dont think theyll any lesser starter to replace Chatwood in rotation, itll either be someone who will be top 3 in playoff rotation or stick with what they got.

I think they will add into the pen this year with one maybe two guys who can go multiple innings...

The way it looking with the SP this year, I think the hope in the playoffs will be to get 4 or 5 solid innings at least and then turn it over to the pen..
So they may look into adding a couple of mid relief guys who can get them 2+ innings.

Right now for bulllpen playoff roster..
Morrow Cishek Wilson Strop Edwards Montgomery are locks .

Rosario looking good if he can keep it up

So they do have at least 2 spots to fill if Rosario sticks..









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[chibears55]

Relievers are going to be hot commodity for contenders ..
Cubs may need to get a jump on them early if that the route their gonna take

https://twitter.com/mlbdailydish/status/1008863149393575937?s=19

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[CSF77]

Which is a totally moronic way of choosing the "best" player

Votes are by sports writers not Fangraphs

 

[CSF77]

Relievers are going to be hot commodity for contenders ..
Cubs may need to get a jump on them early if that the route their gonna take

https://twitter.com/mlbdailydish/status/1008863149393575937?s=19

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Thinking it over: I believe that they do nothing.

Line of reasoning:

1. They spend in the offseason to address needs.
2. The signed Smyly coming off T.J. Should be ready by the dead line. Has control next year which covers losing Wilson.
3. Emergence of Rosario. Little blip is proving to be a long term asset.
4. Control. They have 3 years of control over Montgomery.

Now I do believe with Smyly, Cishek, Strop, Duensing all going into F/A after 2019 that they consider using the trade market to get a early start on covering 2020's pen issues. But you have to figure the depth upwelling will also solve a few of the openings.

Over all they really don't have the trade wealth to make a deal right now. Alozay is not tradable in injury. Contreras goes down you screw your self trading Caratini. Not to mention they have pretty much depleted the system and are in a semi rebuild...as we have seen with the refill of hitting talent this year. They are not going to go back to the way the trib ran things.

 

[chibears55]

Thinking it over: I believe that they do nothing.

Line of reasoning:

1. They spend in the offseason to address needs.
2. The signed Smyly coming off T.J. Should be ready by the dead line. Has control next year which covers losing Wilson.
3. Emergence of Rosario. Little blip is proving to be a long term asset.
4. Control. They have 3 years of control over Montgomery.

Now I do believe with Smyly, Cishek, Strop, Duensing all going into F/A after 2019 that they consider using the trade market to get a early start on covering 2020's pen issues. But you have to figure the depth upwelling will also solve a few of the openings.

Over all they really don't have the trade wealth to make a deal right now. Alozay is not tradable in injury. Contreras goes down you screw your self trading Caratini. Not to mention they have pretty much depleted the system and are in a semi rebuild...as we have seen with the refill of hitting talent this year. They are not going to go back to the way the trib ran things.

Not about just getting through the regular season..

If their looking to get back into the WS this year and win, then they need to make sure they have the pitching that will be able to not just compete with but beat the like of the...

Dodgers
Nationals
Braves
Dbacks
Brewers

If they get out of the NL playoffs

Yankees
Redsox
Mariners
Astros
Indians


If your goal is for them to win it all , then you want them to have the best pitching they can get heading into the playoffs, you have to look pass the regular season and look at a playoff roster..

So guys like Smyley Duensing arent guys youre counting on this year for the playoffs..
If they can add 1 or 2 solid arms for the pen at the deadline that will help in the postseason, you hope they pull that trigger

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[Omeletpants]

Votes are by sports writers not Fangraphs

Makes no difference. The objectionable part is that the Cy Young or MVP should come from a playoff contending team

 

[CSF77]

Makes no difference. The objectionable part is that the Cy Young or MVP should come from a playoff contending team

Like I said the votes come from sports writers and most are bias in general. If it was the fangraphs award then the numbers would pick the winner. If it was the WAR award then that would pick it.

The thing is these guys are going to pick for what ever reason motivates them. If it is about being the ace of a play off bound staff that is dominating the league...ya who is to say that is wrong. You have to figure that is going to give Verlander some votes alone. NL central there is really no pitcher standing out. West ditto. East is is a 2 horse race and some may vote against Scherzer for messed up reasons.. like not wanting it to be his award. Others will look at the teams and say the 2 are close but 1 guy led his team to a play off birth and the other had great numbers on a .500 team.

Is it messed up? Yes. But it is people voting not a spread sheet. People tend to be just that.

 

[CSF77]

Not about just getting through the regular season..

If their looking to get back into the WS this year and win, then they need to make sure they have the pitching that will be able to not just compete with but beat the like of the...

Dodgers
Nationals
Braves
Dbacks
Brewers

If they get out of the NL playoffs

Yankees
Redsox
Mariners
Astros
Indians


If your goal is for them to win it all , then you want them to have the best pitching they can get heading into the playoffs, you have to look pass the regular season and look at a playoff roster..

So guys like Smyley Duensing arent guys youre counting on this year for the playoffs..
If they can add 1 or 2 solid arms for the pen at the deadline that will help in the postseason, you hope they pull that trigger

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Fan bias here. Unfortunately this is a management that keeps spitting out not sacrificing the future for the present. (Breaking curse was an exception) Add to it they don't have the trade capita.

 

[CSF77]

What I think happens is Darvish returns which pushes Chatwood into the pen and Mazz to AAA.

That adds a talented arm into a shorter stint.

Then Smyly should be ready in Aug. As it is you have nowhere to put him and they might just keep him in extended rehab just in case. Rosario is proving to be pretty legit right now so they might be better served extending Smyly's innings in the minors vs tossing him out there in a play off push.

That doesn't even get into Edwards.... ya know that is like adding 3 F/A pitchers as it is. I just really don't see this huge need. What they 'need' is to get healthy.

 

[chibears55]

Fan bias here. Unfortunately this is a management that keeps spitting out not sacrificing the future for the present. (Breaking curse was an exception) Add to it they don't have the trade capita.

Talking about adding a reliever or two for middle relief, that not going to set back or sacrifice the future.....

Also i wouldn't call Jiminez a spit out,
That was a huge sacrifice to get Quintana who they had hoped would pitch them into the WS last year



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[chibears55]

What I think happens is Darvish returns which pushes Chatwood into the pen and Mazz to AAA.

That adds a talented arm into a shorter stint.

Then Smyly should be ready in Aug. As it is you have nowhere to put him and they might just keep him in extended rehab just in case. Rosario is proving to be pretty legit right now so they might be better served extending Smyly's innings in the minors vs tossing him out there in a play off push.

That doesn't even get into Edwards.... ya know that is like adding 3 F/A pitchers as it is. I just really don't see this huge need. What they 'need' is to get healthy.

Again, youre looking at a roster that could be good enough to get through the last month of regular season with Smyley, who we dont even know how he'll be when he returns and all we know is that he struggled big time his last season in 2016 before he got hurt..

That not someone im willing to count on right now to get the job done in the playoffs ..



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[CSF77]

Again, youre looking at a roster that could be good enough to get through the last month of regular season with Smyley, who we dont even know how he'll be when he returns and all we know is that he struggled big time his last season in 2016 before he got hurt..

That not someone im willing to count on right now to get the job done in the playoffs ..



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Almost no point arguing with you here. You believe what they have is not good enough. I believe they need to get Darvish and Edwards back. Smyly I believe should work on recovering until rosters expand honestly.

Add to it the Cubs are #2 in team ERA in MLB. Behind only Houston.

Like I said we can argue this all day but the facts support mine more.

 

[CSF77]

I look at it as if they are not built to win it all this year then they need to readjust in the off season. This team is feast of famine in general. The staff has been better than expected and the guys that they have called up have done better than they did at Iowa.

Bitching about the pen is honestly looking at this team wrong. The pen is fine. The real issue going on is getting these guys to be able to create runs. Sure there are going to be days that they come in bunches. But like yesterday they couldn’t get anything started. Sure the pen gave up a few runs but that didn’t matter. The O shut down and to me that has been the problem in general.

 

[chibears55]

Almost no point arguing with you here. You believe what they have is not good enough. I believe they need to get Darvish and Edwards back. Smyly I believe should work on recovering until rosters expand honestly.

Add to it the Cubs are #2 in team ERA in MLB. Behind only Houston.

Like I said we can argue this all day but the facts support mine more.

LMAO..what facts

Im telling you they could look into adding an arm to improve their bullpen for the POSTSEASON...

You're stuck on August and September and hoping Smyley will be an answer for the pen to finish the season out and for next year, and a return of Darvish and Edwards..

Sure this roster as is may be good enough to win the division, but that also depends on what moves the Brewers might make to improve...

Im not looking to just be good enough to win the division, im hoping they improve at least in the bullpen to win it all...

Seriously, how do you argue that thought process..
Except that you just wanna argue

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[chibears55]

Bitching about the pen is honestly looking at this team wrong. The pen is fine. The real issue going on is getting these guys to be able to create runs. Sure there are going to be days that they come in bunches. But like yesterday they couldn’t get anything started. Sure the pen gave up a few runs but that didn’t matter. The O shut down and to me that has been the problem in general.

Who the F@#% bitching about the damn pen?
LMFAO
Wow

I just originally said that i think if they make any trades this deadline it will be to improve the pen by adding an arm or two that can go 2+ innings

Lol

Im done here with you..
Wow lol
Talk about twisting words around



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[beckdawg]

Relievers are going to be hot commodity for contenders ..
Cubs may need to get a jump on them early if that the route their gonna take

https://twitter.com/mlbdailydish/status/1008863149393575937?s=19

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Thing about relievers is it's always what you're trying to acquire. Some relievers are dirt cheap. I mean look at what Monty's cost was. Like wise if all you need is someone like Rodney was in 2015 you can get those guys for PTBNL. Relievers don't get expensive until you start talking about closers or set up guys. I'm not sure the cubs need that type of reliever. I mean Morrow looks legit. RP can turn on a dime so there's always a chance something goes wrong but as much as they have babied his arm I think he'll be good and healthy. Strop doesn't get enough credit from cubs fans. He's an elite set up guy and has been for awhile. Edwards is down now but that might be sort of a blessing in disguise because it will limit his usage some. Wilson still has a bit of a walk problem but if he gets that under control his 12 k/9 is fairly elite. Cishek is perhaps a tad over worked but he's been fantastic. He's on a roughly 71 IP pace which would be high for him. Highest he's hit since breaking in in 2011 was 69 innings. But it's not absurdly high and when we get to August/September you can rest him more with more guys on the 40 man getting called up.

If the cubs go after someone I suspect it will be a guy who's specifically good at getting RH out. They got enough LOOGY types especially if Smyly ends up in the pen.

 

[chibears55]

Thing about relievers is it's always what you're trying to acquire. Some relievers are dirt cheap. I mean look at what Monty's cost was. Like wise if all you need is someone like Rodney was in 2015 you can get those guys for PTBNL. Relievers don't get expensive until you start talking about closers or set up guys. I'm not sure the cubs need that type of reliever. I mean Morrow looks legit. RP can turn on a dime so there's always a chance something goes wrong but as much as they have babied his arm I think he'll be good and healthy. Strop doesn't get enough credit from cubs fans. He's an elite set up guy and has been for awhile. Edwards is down now but that might be sort of a blessing in disguise because it will limit his usage some. Wilson still has a bit of a walk problem but if he gets that under control his 12 k/9 is fairly elite. Cishek is perhaps a tad over worked but he's been fantastic. He's on a roughly 71 IP pace which would be high for him. Highest he's hit since breaking in in 2011 was 69 innings. But it's not absurdly high and when we get to August/September you can rest him more with more guys on the 40 man getting called up.

If the cubs go after someone I suspect it will be a guy who's specifically good at getting RH out. They got enough LOOGY types especially if Smyly ends up in the pen.

My thought is...

Right now their SP are basically 5 inning guys this year and Maddon has shown that pretty much what he looking for from them in the playoffs.

So im thinking if they can find someone off the As Rays Marlins Tigers bottom feeders roster that can come in and give them 2+ innings for inning 5 and 6 + if needed that what theyll look for.
This way they dont have to overwork Cishek and Monty on consecutive games and push them closer to the 7th inning to hold

I just dont think their gonna stand pat as is with the pen if there a chance to add someone who can help in the postseason

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[beckdawg]

My thought is...

Right now their SP are basically 5 inning guys this year and Maddon has shown that pretty much what he looking for from them in the playoffs.

So im thinking if they can find someone off the As Rays Marlins Tigers bottom feeders roster that can come in and give them 2+ innings for inning 5 and 6 + if needed that what theyll look for.
This way they dont have to overwork Cishek and Monty on consecutive games and push them closer to the 7th inning to hold

I just dont think their gonna stand pat as is with the pen if there a chance to add someone who can help in the postseason

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I doubt they entirely stand pat as well but my question is more about whether or not the player they acquire is someone to get them to october or someone they need IN october. Thing to remember about the playoffs is there's a lot more rest between games than a typical in season series. In 2016, they basically only used like 2-3 guys. Granted Chapman was toast by the end but if they have 4-5 guys they are confident in I'm not sure they need someone for October unless it's someone who does one thing well and thus is a cheaper acquire. Historically that's been LOOGY type guys but as mentioned I'm not seeing the need there.

As for your idea on the whole 2 inning type guy... I think that's Smyly if he's back to what he was pre-injury. Typically the limitation with relievers is they only have 2 good pitches. If you can't develop at least an average 3rd pitch you end up in a bullpen. Smyly is already a starter so he has control of 4 pitches. In his career, hitters hit .233/.288/.414 vs him in the first 3 innings of games. He has a 9.32 K/9 a 2.70 bb/9 and a 3.54 ERA over 257.0 innings. And if he knows he's only going to need to go 2 innings he can dial up his fastball some which should help those k rates.

 

[chibears55]

I doubt they entirely stand pat as well but my question is more about whether or not the player they acquire is someone to get them to october or someone they need IN october. Thing to remember about the playoffs is there's a lot more rest between games than a typical in season series. In 2016, they basically only used like 2-3 guys. Granted Chapman was toast by the end but if they have 4-5 guys they are confident in I'm not sure they need someone for October unless it's someone who does one thing well and thus is a cheaper acquire. Historically that's been LOOGY type guys but as mentioned I'm not seeing the need there.

As for your idea on the whole 2 inning type guy... I think that's Smyly if he's back to what he was pre-injury. Typically the limitation with relievers is they only have 2 good pitches. If you can't develop at least an average 3rd pitch you end up in a bullpen. Smyly is already a starter so he has control of 4 pitches. In his career, hitters hit .233/.288/.414 vs him in the first 3 innings of games. He has a 9.32 K/9 a 2.70 bb/9 and a 3.54 ERA over 257.0 innings. And if he knows he's only going to need to go 2 innings he can dial up his fastball some which should help those k rates.

Im not saying itll be a "major" trade for that guy...
But
I think if they go that route itll be for someone thatll be for playoff matchups against Dodgers Nationals etc...
Kinda like when they went out and added Monty in 16 and Wilson last year..

As far as Smyley goes, i get it and itll be great if he can be that guy and all but he not due back til August the earliest and they have no clue how he'll do when he returns..
I think theyll bring him in slowly to finish out the year ( be like ST) then give him the off season with no stress from the playoffs..
Smyley more in their plan for 2019

We'll see , going to be another great final 3 months ..
Be interesting to see what they do to give themselves a boost the rest of the year and be stronger for the playoffs..
NL leaders looks a little stronger this year


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[CSF77]

The whole point I’m trying to make is the staff ERA is #2 in baseball right now. And that is missing Edwards and Darvish.

Posting this buy now is pretty typical of you 55. Pen gives up a few runs and you start chiming the fire alarm while disregarding how solid it has been in general.

Beck: what you are saying: pick up waver wire or low cost trades. You know that is fine when the rosters expand. But I doubt that they impact more than what they have. But I agree with what you are saying about Smyly but you also have to see it as Montgomery and Chatwood would be in that 2 inning role.

Look if they had this deep farm it would make sense trading up for a 1A pen arm. But they don’t have this excess depth. So you have to depend on what you have And that has been pretty good.

55: maybe you should look at what they have done and weigh that to their hick-ups. If the bad outweighs the good then your arguement holds weight. But if all you are looking at is name value then that is your lacking.

Now on Cishek: I see him as a 1A right now and that is because Edwards is injured. Edwards gets back that load is shifted. But in the injury Strop stepped up so that also lessens the future load.

Then when Darvish returns it pushes Chatwood or Montgomery back into long relief.

Again the sub’s have done a really nice job filling in. None have been in over their heads. Other than each has walked hitters more than what you would want.

Now over all you in a vacuum yes a high leverage arm would be ideal to add for the play offs. I’ll give you that 55. But this is not a vacuum and they don’t have the chips needed to pull it off. Remember they have 0 top 100 prospects. And unless it is Happ (who has questionable return value right now) I really don’t see it. Not to mention wearing 1 area to strengthen another nets 0 gain.