Ryan Dempster Trade Discussion Thread

[Rice Cube]

So we're looking at something above what the Cubs got back in the D-Lee trade, but less than Zack Lee.

 

[dabynsky]

So we're looking at something above what the Cubs got back in the D-Lee trade, but less than Zack Lee.

That is a pretty big gap though since we are talking about 3 guys that were probably in the 15-30 range of the Braves system at the time to a top 50 prospect in baseball.

 

[dabynsky]

Going by the notion of two B/B- is what Dempster is worth and that the Cubs would want arms these are probably the type of guys that we are talking about from the Braves:
LHP Sean Gilmartin
RHP J.J. Hoover
RHP Zeke Spurill
RHP JR Graham
LHP Carlos Perez

That is going by John Sickels rankings of prospects, but looking at the names that is probably in the range of not tremendous but good value for Dempster that eventually the Cubs will probably settle into.

 

[Rice Cube]

That is a pretty big gap though since we are talking about 3 guys that were probably in the 15-30 range of the Braves system at the time to a top 50 prospect in baseball.

Naturally, but we've also gone from "Dempster is going to net a great return" all the way to "Dempster won't return jack" so the short answer to all this is "I don't know" :lol: Which I realize is a cop-out, but thinking about it more and more, if I were an opposing GM with no commitment from Dempster beyond this next couple months, I'm not giving up a lot at all.

 

[dabynsky]

Naturally, but we've also gone from "Dempster is going to net a great return" all the way to "Dempster won't return jack" so the short answer to all this is "I don't know" :lol: Which I realize is a cop-out, but thinking about it more and more, if I were an opposing GM with no commitment from Dempster beyond this next couple months, I'm not giving up a lot at all.

Your position is probably the best position to be in because the information we get is so controlled around this situation. Information comes out regularly that contradicts what was previously held to be true. A lot of posturing by both sides is going on, and we won't know anything until Dempster accepts a trade out of Chicago (or at least the northside of Chicago). That said, what reputable person has said the Cubs will get jack squat? I am legitimately asking because most of the things I've read is that the Cubs won't get what they want for Dempster because of the rental/lack of comp angle but I hadn't read that the Cubs wouldn't get anything for him.

 

[Rice Cube]

Your position is probably the best position to be in because the information we get is so controlled around this situation. Information comes out regularly that contradicts what was previously held to be true. A lot of posturing by both sides is going on, and we won't know anything until Dempster accepts a trade out of Chicago (or at least the northside of Chicago). That said, what reputable person has said the Cubs will get jack squat? I am legitimately asking because most of the things I've read is that the Cubs won't get what they want for Dempster because of the rental/lack of comp angle but I hadn't read that the Cubs wouldn't get anything for him.

My counterposition, which I believe you have also stated in previous posts, is whether what is in the return will be of greater value than the potential draft pick or Dempster himself. Contingent on whether he decides to leave for free agency (draft pick) or whether he calls their bluff and signs for that year and $12.5MM and gives you that production which I'm reasonably confident he can provide. As for whether someone else signs him...well, you have a solid, durable pitcher (freak accidents aside) that gives you a sub-4 FIP every season and isn't old as dirt quite yet. The question isn't whether another GM will want to give up that pick but whether they will pay enough to get Dempster to decline the qualifying offer in my opinion.

 

[dabynsky]

My counterposition, which I believe you have also stated in previous posts, is whether what is in the return will be of greater value than the potential draft pick or Dempster himself. Contingent on whether he decides to leave for free agency (draft pick) or whether he calls their bluff and signs for that year and $12.5MM and gives you that production which I'm reasonably confident he can provide. As for whether someone else signs him...well, you have a solid, durable pitcher (freak accidents aside) that gives you a sub-4 FIP every season and isn't old as dirt quite yet. The question isn't whether another GM will want to give up that pick but whether they will pay enough to get Dempster to decline the qualifying offer in my opinion.

If I had to guess I think this is the angle the Cubs are playing with the teams interested in Dempster. More and more I think about it though the more and more I think teams aren't going to sign middling guys like Dempster if it costs them their highest draft pick and the cash assigned to that pick. Hamels, Greinke sure teams will sign them despite the loss of draft picks but guys like Sanchez and Dempster I am no longer so sure that it will work out that way with the new CBA.

 

[Rice Cube]

If I had to guess I think this is the angle the Cubs are playing with the teams interested in Dempster. More and more I think about it though the more and more I think teams aren't going to sign middling guys like Dempster if it costs them their highest draft pick and the cash assigned to that pick. Hamels, Greinke sure teams will sign them despite the loss of draft picks but guys like Sanchez and Dempster I am no longer so sure that it will work out that way with the new CBA.

If there are no Hamels or Greinke on the market and the best available are the middling guys there could be a possibility, but if worst-case scenario is that they keep Dempster for a cheapy multi-year deal I guess I'll live. I think they have to weigh the draft pick against what they might get in return, because if what they're getting is pure crap with just a wee bit of upside, it doesn't seem worth it and you might as well keep Demp around.

 

[Rice Cube]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/braves-moving-toward-deal-for-starting-pitcher.html

Speak of the devil...not sure which pitcher yet. Wouldn't be surprised if it was Dempster.

 

[dabynsky]

Dempster or Liriano would seem to be the most likely given that Shields, Greinke, and Hamels aren't really on the market yet. Maybe Anibal Sanchez.

 

[Jntg4]

Bet it is Dempster, since he was supposed to be the first domino to fall and may be the cheapest (prospect-wise) of the top tier of available SP.

 

[dabynsky]

Dempster is the logical conclusion. So ready for this to be over and finally have something tangible to start to analyze the market for pitching.

 

[Jntg4]

Can't wait for the obsessive Matt Garza watch

 

[dabynsky]

I am actually starting to think that Maholm might get dealt before Garza.

 

[Jntg4]

Probably, but it won't be as exciting

 

[dabynsky]

Heyman is reporting that the Braves are closer to getting Dempster.

 

[Jntg4]

It IS Dempster per Heyman
dempster would provide huge immediate impact for #braves, once finalized. hearing it is close. #cubs

 

[dabynsky]

Probably, but it won't be as exciting

Probably not as much as Garza, but at the same time I wondering if the return on Maholm shouldn't be more than Dempster given the control a team has over him next season since everything we have heard is that rentals aren't worth that much.

 

[Rice Cube]

Go ahead and post a new thread with the details when you Twitter-whores get it

 

[dabynsky]

Maybe our long national (Cubdom) nightmare is over...Fitting that our final image of Ryan Dempster might be him in a Captain America suit.