Ryan Dempster Trade Discussion Thread

[whitesoxman77]

I could see it happening since both FO are so tightlipped about things, but Kenny likes guys that are AL proven. But he just picked up Bretty Myers so perhaps that is overstated.

I think the Braves make a lot of sense given their pitching depth in the farm system and the fact that they want to make moves that don't cost them a ton of cash. I am kind of wondering if that might have been the problem with the Dodgers. The Cubs wanted to pay the salary to get better prospects and the Dodgers wanted to pick up the salary to give up lesser prospects.

I could definitely see that being a possibility, the Cubs might rather try and pry Julio Tehran away from the Braves and pick up all Demp's salary instead of the Dodgers giving them MAYBE a AA pitcher with a lot of upside and paying all of Demps salary themselves. Plus the Dodgers have a ton of money to spend, as evidenced by their pursuit of Prince Fielder and they are also expected to be huge players in the Cole Hamels sweepstakes this summer, while the Braves have always acted like small-market club. Braves prospects are probably more worth it anyway, gotta love organizations like the Braves and the Twins who know how to breed baseball talent in their minor league systems.

 

[dabynsky]

I could definitely see that being a possibility, the Cubs might rather try and pry Julio Tehran away from the Braves and pick up all Demp's salary instead of the Dodgers giving them MAYBE a AA pitcher with a lot of upside and paying all of Demps salary themselves. Plus the Dodgers have a ton of money to spend, as evidenced by their pursuit of Prince Fielder and they are also expected to be huge players in the Cole Hamels sweepstakes this summer, while the Braves have always acted like small-market club. Braves prospects are probably more worth it anyway, gotta love organizations like the Braves and the Twins who know how to breed baseball talent in their minor league systems.

But that is exactly why I am always nervous to deal for Braves pitchers. They don't often pick wrong about which pitcher to keep and which one to give up on.

 

[whitesoxman77]

But that is exactly why I am always nervous to deal for Braves pitchers. They don't often pick wrong about which pitcher to keep and which one to give up on.

that is also something to consider, but I would assume Theo wouldn't allow himself to get fleeced between him, Jed, and their head scouting dude whose name escapes me I know they'll do their due diligence on whomever they target

 

[dabynsky]

Depressing Goldstein tweet:

Exec on Dempster delays: "As a rental, they aren't going to get tremendous value for him and that's not an easy realization on their end."

 

[Rice Cube]

Depressing Goldstein tweet:

Based on how the new CBA changed things, it wasn't hard to figure out. Sorry folks.

 

[dabynsky]

Based on how the new CBA changed things, it wasn't hard to figure out. Sorry folks.

Yeah it certainly could play out that well in the end, but lets not forget that a rival executive is the one saying this. It is certainly not hard to not imagine why they might be willing to put out there that Dempster's value is low.

 

[Captain Obvious]

I think a Teherah + lower level prospect would be awesome. It's hard to shake your head at that, especially with Teheran being very close to being MLB ready. I'd let him finish out the year in the big leagues, just for the experience aspect. He's already had an option used on him this year, so why not?

EDIT: I better edit this to clarify that that would be ideal, not necessarily realistic.

 

[nwfisch]

Based on how the new CBA changed things, it wasn't hard to figure out. Sorry folks.

Based on common knowledge of baseball it wasn't hard to figure out.

Get a prospect or two with upside for Dempster.

Thanks for the memories!

 

[whitesoxman77]

So your saying there's a chance KW will overpay for him and get him?!? :lol:

 

[Rice Cube]

I think at the start I thought that if they traded him early, the extra month or so of production would've netted a better prospect, but the more they wait, the less the new team will get in "rental" and that's that much less the Cubs get back. I think someone else said that the Dempster DL stint was possibly the worst thing to happen as it set him back 2+ weeks and that's time that wouldn't allow him to be traded. At the same time, he was still going to be a rental and wouldn't have gotten anything close to a top prospect back.

So it might come time to expect Dempster to end the year as a Cub so the compensation pick will come into play. Obviously I don't know the future but that's a significant possibility.

 

[dabynsky]

I think a Teherah + lower level prospect would be awesome. It's hard to shake your head at that, especially with Teheran being very close to being MLB ready. I'd let him finish out the year in the big leagues, just for the experience aspect. He's already had an option used on him this year, so why not?

Teheran alone would be an awesome return. And as far as options go, once he is sent down once he can be sent down as many times as you want and it still counts as one option during that season.

 

[Rice Cube]

Based on common knowledge of baseball it wasn't hard to figure out.

Get a prospect or two with upside for Dempster.

Thanks for the memories!

You can assign dollar values to Dempster, those hypothetical prospects, and the compensation pick should Dempster remain with the Cubs and then leave via free agency.

So how much is that comp pick worth relative to the prospects for the Cubs, and how much is Dempster worth relative to the prospects for the other team? That will tell you how likely Dempster is to be traded because the Cubs likely don't want to be cheated, contingent on how badly Dempster desires to be shortchanged at the end of the season when the Cubs elect not to keep him (also hypothetical).

 

[Rice Cube]

I'm guessing Dempster is earning $6MM or so for the rest of the season. The compensation pick is worth about $1MM in additional pool money and itself carries some value because of the ability of the prospect brought back. Each tier of prospect also carries some monetary value. So you're the other GM, and the Cubs pay your $6MM. How much are you willing to give up, if at all? If you're the Cubs, do you think what that hypothetical team gives up is worth sending $6MM and forfeiting that potential comp pick?

 

[Rice Cube]

Via MLBTR:

With the Dodgers cooling on Ryan Dempster, the Braves have emerged as the favorites to land the right-hander, report Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com. Potential suitors, including the Cardinals and Nationals, are wary of parting with better prospects for what could prove to be a rental given Dempster's status as a free agent at the end of the season.

All you need is one dumb GM, but I fear GMs aren't going to be as dumb as we thought they would be.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Based on common knowledge of baseball it wasn't hard to figure out.

Get a prospect or two with upside for Dempster.

Thanks for the memories!

Why would you do that? You only do that if the money is an issue, which it is not. Dempster will get us TWO first rounders. First rounders are BY FAR more likely to make it to the major leagues than lower rounds. That's two shots at an MLB player... and relatively good shots at that. You have to get better than that in a trade. One or two prospects likely aren't going to do that, unless they have potential... which is different from just upside.

Teheran alone would be an awesome return. And as far as options go, once he is sent down once he can be sent down as many times as you want and it still counts as one option during that season.

Right. Since it has been exercised, we might as well get use out of it. IIRC, Sept. call ups do not count as an option, therefore only one has been exercised.

I'm guessing Dempster is earning $6MM or so for the rest of the season. The compensation pick is worth about $1MM in additional pool money and itself carries some value because of the ability of the prospect brought back. Each tier of prospect also carries some monetary value. So you're the other GM, and the Cubs pay your $6MM. How much are you willing to give up, if at all? If you're the Cubs, do you think what that hypothetical team gives up is worth sending $6MM and forfeiting that potential comp pick?

There is TWO compensation picks, the one from another team and the sandwich round. So that's an additional 1MM. I am really thinking that we hang onto him.

 

[Rice Cube]

Dabynsky and MLBTR checked the CBA and the team's original pick disappears and the Cubs only get the compensation round pick now.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/the-new-draft-pick-compensation-system.html

This changes the calculus a bit but the question still remains...which is more valuable, the pick or the two or three mid- to low-tier prospects the Cubs might get back? I'm leaning towards the pick, myself.

 

[dabynsky]

I would be curious about a guy like Mike Minor or Jair Jurrjens. I am sure Theo and Jed's preference would be pure prospects, but if teams are really unwilling to part with prospects for a rental I am wondering if guys that have lost their luster in the majors might be more palatable. Jurrjens with only a year left of control left and terrible performance should be worth less than Dempster, but I am just thinking out loud at this point with so little to go on.

 

[Rice Cube]

It's fun to speculate

 

[dabynsky]

It's fun to speculate

So who hangs up first on Jurrjens and a B- for Dempster with the cash evened out? Who hangs up first on Minor for Dempter with the cash picked up?

 

[Shawon0Meter]

take the pick