S. Castro's hitting and his walks

[X]

The main thing is, what do you want to get out of the inning? In the top of a 2nd inning in a 0-0 game, you're not going to bunt, b/c it gives an out to the other team.


I'm the bottom of the 9th in a 4-4 game? man on 2nd no out? lol...bunt that shit.

 

[Rice Cube]

Sorry, but Im talking about stastically valid sample sizes that lead to 97.5% (or whatever it is) validity. Im not talking about this made up world that Bill James created.

You're looking for a P-value then, I guess. If you wanted that kind of statistical significance you're going to have to be hoping for a guy to have a 50-year career with no games missed :lol: I'm not a statistician but for the most part the statheads seem to look at which skills will correlate with run-scoring (R-squared) and use those rather than hits and RBI. Bill James may have a big imagination, but it's imagination like his that allow the best teams to get to and stay in the playoffs.

 

[Lex L.]

The main thing is, what do you want to get out of the inning? In the top of a 2nd inning in a 0-0 game, you're not going to bunt, b/c it gives an out to the other team.


I'm the bottom of the 9th in a 4-4 game? man on 2nd no out? lol...bunt that shit.

If I have a 3 hitter who hits a lot of deep fly balls and a lot of home runs and the lead off hitter gets on, I have him steal 2nd and then try to bunt him over. This way a fly ball from your 3 hitter gets home a run.

I would do this in the first inning.

 

[Lex L.]

You're looking for a P-value then, I guess. If you wanted that kind of statistical significance you're going to have to be hoping for a guy to have a 50-year career with no games missed :lol: I'm not a statistician but for the most part the statheads seem to look at which skills will correlate with run-scoring (R-squared) and use those rather than hits and RBI. Bill James may have a big imagination, but it's imagination like his that allow the best teams to get to and stay in the playoffs.

No, its way less than that (assuming we're talking about the same thing). It's not that I deny this field of analysis. I think it's value is that it looks at the game in a different way. It steps out of convention and that's its value. But people get too carried away with it and treat it almost like a religion. It should be viewed as a compliment to conventional thinking and not an invalidation of it. Having said that, I agree (and have always agreed) that there are many conventional stats that are flawed or overvalued.

 

[Rice Cube]

Absolutely, you cannot look at statistics in a vacuum.

 

[brett05]

Would lofton pierre Reyes ichiro be in the class of Raines/Wilson?

 

[X]

Absolutely, you cannot look at statistics in a vacuum.

This is clearly because "statistics" are not tactical things than can be swept up in the vacuum in the first place, along with dust bunnies and puzzle pieces.

 

[Rice Cube]

This is clearly because "statistics" are not tactical things than can be swept up in the vacuum in the first place, along with dust bunnies and puzzle pieces.

It's not mutually exclusive either as managers use statistics in forming their strategies.

 

[Lex L.]

Would lofton pierre Reyes ichiro be in the class of Raines/Wilson?

They're not as fast if that's what you're asking.

 

[brett05]

I dunno. Lofton was pretty fast

 

[X]

It's not mutually exclusive either as managers use statistics in forming their strategies.

:hi5:

 

[Rice Cube]

Would lofton pierre Reyes ichiro be in the class of Raines/Wilson?

Let's look at them one by one using just OBP...

Wilson (I assume Mookie): .314 career

Raines: .385

Lofton: .372

Pierre: .345

Reyes (Jose): .341

Ichiro: .370

And just for kicks, Rickey Henderson: .409

Some people think of the prototypical leadoff hitter as someone who gets on base with a slap hit and steals a base here or there. I tend to think of a good leadoff hitter not as a speedy guy but rather as someone who is able to get on base at a high clip. That's why guys like Rickey and Tim Raines are so good, is because they can actually get on base first before they do all the speedy guy crap. Ichiro doesn't walk a lot but he used to have such good bat control that he'd get his 200 hits and keep his OBP up anyway. The other guys are notorious out-makers. Making outs generally stalls a rally and kills your inning, so the guys with low OBPs who aren't actually that good at defense either, I wouldn't put in the class of Rickey, Tim Raines, Ichiro or even Kenny Lofton.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

hmmm i get castro needs to generate walks, but i think you do have to consider what position he plays and his style of play(meaning although he is a great hitter, i dont think he will get alot of BBs or IBBs)

 

[Lex L.]

Let's look at them one by one using just OBP...

Wilson (I assume Mookie): .314 career

Raines: .385

Lofton: .372

Pierre: .345

Reyes (Jose): .341

Ichiro: .370

And just for kicks, Rickey Henderson: .409

Some people think of the prototypical leadoff hitter as someone who gets on base with a slap hit and steals a base here or there. I tend to think of a good leadoff hitter not as a speedy guy but rather as someone who is able to get on base at a high clip. That's why guys like Rickey and Tim Raines are so good, is because they can actually get on base first before they do all the speedy guy crap. Ichiro doesn't walk a lot but he used to have such good bat control that he'd get his 200 hits and keep his OBP up anyway. The other guys are notorious out-makers. Making outs generally stalls a rally and kills your inning, so the guys with low OBPs who aren't actually that good at defense either, I wouldn't put in the class of Rickey, Tim Raines, Ichiro or even Kenny Lofton.

He was asking about Willie Wilson. One thing to point out is that OBP doesnt include getting on by an error. The faster the guy, the greater likelihood there is going to be an error. On a game in, game out basis, I don't think there was ever anyone as fast at getting down the first base line as Vince Coleman. Im talking about his time in St. Louis. But really, I wouldn't even put Lofton, Reyes, or Ichiro in their class where footspeed is concerned. Lofton, Reyes, and Ichiro all are fast, especially for compared to contemporaries but they don't have the functional speed like Raines, Wilson, Coleman, or Henderson. I actually think Henderson was the slowest of the group and also the worst basestealer. But he was the best of all of them at the plate so he got on base more which allowed him more steal attempts. You can also say for Henderson is that he had the least drop off with age.

 

[Rice Cube]

Speed is good, but baseball smarts go a long way

 

[Lex L.]

hmmm i get castro needs to generate walks, but i think you do have to consider what position he plays and his style of play(meaning although he is a great hitter, i dont think he will get alot of BBs or IBBs)

No, what you have to consider is that he's a sub par to average defensive shortstop who will likely have to change his position at some point.

The other thing is that, since he's nothing special defensively, his real position might be considered a 2 hitter. A two hitter is definitely someone who should be able to work for at bats, especially if they are able to add someone like Pujols.

 

[brett05]

I saw all those guys play and the only one I ever saw beat out relatively routine ground balls to SS was ichiro

As a side note I thought if Jordan could be taught to ground it to the left he could be lethal

 

[Lex L.]

I saw all those guys play and the only one I ever saw beat out relatively routine ground balls to SS was ichiro

As a side note I thought if Jordan could be taught to ground it to the left he could be lethal

Ichiro's not faster than any of those guys were.

Just as proof, here's a video from the 1986 superstars 100 yard dash. Vince Coleman beat Renaldo Nehamiah and James Lofton twice. He was actually ahead of Willie Gault at 50 yards too on the second run.


[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN758d2qUjk[/ame]

 

[Jntg4]

You're looking for a P-value then, I guess. If you wanted that kind of statistical significance you're going to have to be hoping for a guy to have a 50-year career with no games missed :lol: I'm not a statistician but for the most part the statheads seem to look at which skills will correlate with run-scoring (R-squared) and use those rather than hits and RBI. Bill James may have a big imagination, but it's imagination like his that allow the best teams to get to and stay in the playoffs.

Not Boston

 

[Rice Cube]

Not Boston

They missed out the past two seasons, but six playoff appearances and two World Series wins suggests that it worked out pretty well for them in the past decade.