S. Castro's hitting and his walks

[Lex L.]

In all the situations you can possibly come up with runners on/off base, hitter 1-9 up, inning, number of outs, etc. There are very few situations in which you should bunt.



With that situation, it depends on who you have up. If you have a < .300 wOBA hitter up, you're supposed to swing, if not, you're supposed to bunt. It doesn't take into account streaks and what not and who is on deck, of course, however you'd be smarter off(that sounds dumb lol) to hit it. Of course there are exceptions, but the higher run expectancy is to not bunt.



To do that in the 1st inning is stupid. You're giving up an out in a position where you can capitalize and score more runs.
As far as your idea of stealing and bunting, you have to consider that you have a lot of risk in that. First off, your runner could get thrown out, then you're really SOL. Second, if the bunt doesn't work, you just wasted an out. If your 2 hitter is Darwin Barney, yeah, bunt. But if your 2 hitter is Castro, don't bunt. Most of it goes back the players wOBA, unless of course Castro is 0-for-themonth and Barney is on fire.

I already know what the analysis of data says about stealing. I probably know as much about it as you do and it's your religion. So spare me. You're not even able to think on your own. You're just a parrot repeating things because you think it makes you some hipster insider.

 

[Captain Obvious]

I already know what the analysis of data says about stealing. I probably know as much about it as you do and it's your religion. So spare me. You're not even able to think on your own. You're just a parrot repeating things because you think it makes you some hipster insider.

Except that we weren't talking about stealing there, we were talking about bunting to score a run. Yeah, I like to repeat this stuff because it makes me feel cool because ya know, being a baseball nerd is such a cool thing.

So nobody cares?

You can feel that way all you want, but you're only going to be able to disregard the presence of wOBA for so long.

 

[Lex L.]

If I have a 3 hitter who hits a lot of deep fly balls and a lot of home runs and the lead off hitter gets on, I have him steal 2nd and then try to bunt him over. This way a fly ball from your 3 hitter gets home a run.

I would do this in the first inning.

In all the situations you can possibly come up with runners on/off base, hitter 1-9 up, inning, number of outs, etc. There are very few situations in which you should bunt.



With that situation, it depends on who you have up. If you have a < .300 wOBA hitter up, you're supposed to swing, if not, you're supposed to bunt. It doesn't take into account streaks and what not and who is on deck, of course, however you'd be smarter off(that sounds dumb lol) to hit it. Of course there are exceptions, but the higher run expectancy is to not bunt.



To do that in the 1st inning is stupid. You're giving up an out in a position where you can capitalize and score more runs.

As far as your idea of stealing and bunting, you have to consider that you have a lot of risk in that. First off, your runner could get thrown out, then you're really SOL. Second, if the bunt doesn't work, you just wasted an out. If your 2 hitter is Darwin Barney, yeah, bunt. But if your 2 hitter is Castro, don't bunt. Most of it goes back the players wOBA, unless of course Castro is 0-for-themonth and Barney is on fire.

Except that we weren't talking about stealing there, we were talking about bunting to score a run. Yeah, I like to repeat this stuff because it makes me feel cool because ya know, being a baseball nerd is such a cool thing.


You can feel that way all you want, but you're only going to be able to disregard the presence of wOBA for so long.

I was talking about stealing and you responded to it. And no, bunting a runner to 3rd with a power hitting 3 hitter actually does make sense. In this scenario, he doesnt even require a hit to score a run. All you need is a deep fly ball. Your problem is that you don't know how the game should be played. If you have a runner at 2nd, the batter should be trying to get him home, not hit a HR or take super aggressive swings. Moving him to third, allows him to score (in a variety of ways) while allowing the 3 hitter to be aggressive.

 

[Rice Cube]

I was talking about stealing and you responded to it. And no, bunting a runner to 3rd with a power hitting 3 hitter actually does make sense. In this scenario, he doesnt even require a hit to score a run. All you need is a deep fly ball. Your problem is that you don't know how the game should be played. If you have a runner at 2nd, the batter should be trying to get him home, not hit a HR or take super aggressive swings. Moving him to third, allows him to score (in a variety of ways) while allowing the 3 hitter to be aggressive.

That strategy also costs you an out. It's a matter of how much you value that out in the game's bigger picture. In the beginning of the game you want to maximize the return for your outs by scoring as many runs as possible. If you're going to have your #2 guy keep bunting the #1 guy over (or whoever), you might as well bat your #2 guy 9th because he's wasting outs. At the end of the game though, I agree with increasing the usage of the bunt to maximize win probability.

 

[Captain Obvious]

I was talking about stealing and you responded to it. And no, bunting a runner to 3rd with a power hitting 3 hitter actually does make sense. In this scenario, he doesnt even require a hit to score a run. All you need is a deep fly ball. Your problem is that you don't know how the game should be played. If you have a runner at 2nd, the batter should be trying to get him home, not hit a HR or take super aggressive swings. Moving him to third, allows him to score (in a variety of ways) while allowing the 3 hitter to be aggressive.

Does it make sense bunting the guy over if your #2 hitter is better than your #3 hitter, which he should be?

I don't know how the game should be played? Tell me, how should the game be played? Here I thought you were supposed to score more runs the other team, but I guess I was wrong.

Moving the runner to 3rd only adds one more way that the runner can realistically score and that is by the sac fly. If you're going to be giving up that out, you better not be giving up an out of a batter that is good.

The most flyballs hit are 51%, which was by Soriano. That means that only half the time that he is up, he will hit the flyball that you need. And out of that half, how many are going to be deep enough? All you need is a hit to score the guy whether he is on second or third, and you don't give up the out.

 

[Rice Cube]

I think you could also argue that the wild pitch and the squeeze play are in effect, but generally giving away outs just doesn't sit well with me

 

[Lex L.]

Does it make sense bunting the guy over if your #2 hitter is better than your #3 hitter, which he should be?

I don't know how the game should be played? Tell me, how should the game be played? Here I thought you were supposed to score more runs the other team, but I guess I was wrong.

Moving the runner to 3rd only adds one more way that the runner can realistically score and that is by the sac fly. If you're going to be giving up that out, you better not be giving up an out of a batter that is good.

The most flyballs hit are 51%, which was by Soriano. That means that only half the time that he is up, he will hit the flyball that you need. And out of that half, how many are going to be deep enough? All you need is a hit to score the guy whether he is on second or third, and you don't give up the out.

That's right.

And you should just stop...but you're too stupid.

There are several ways you can score from 3rd. A deep flyball, a deep infield grounder, a passed ball...all things you were to stupid to think about when you made your pointless post.

Like I said before, you're a parrot who's not able to think for himself.

 

[Captain Obvious]

That's right.

And you should just stop...but you're too stupid.

There are several ways you can score from 3rd. A deep flyball, a deep infield grounder, a passed ball...all things you were to stupid to think about when you made your pointless post.

Like I said before, you're a parrot who's not able to think for himself.

Oh right, because passed balls happen > 1% of the time, so I should have included that. That's why I said realistically. In order to get that guy to 3rd, you're wasting an out and that's the whole point. When you already have a guy in scoring position, wasting an out isn't a very smart thing to do. But it all depends on the batter at the plate. If you have a guy who is even an average hitter, you should let him hit.