S. Castro's hitting and his walks

[Jntg4]

They missed out the past two seasons, but six playoff appearances and two World Series wins suggests that it worked out pretty well for them in the past decade.

But they were completely useless by September this year.

 

[nwfisch]

But they were completely useless by September this year.

They had a record breaking collapse Dewey Jr.

 

[Rice Cube]

But they were completely useless by September this year.

Not until the absolute last day.

 

[Jntg4]

They had a record breaking collapse Dewey Jr.

I am honored to bestow that honor.

 

[DewsSox79]

The main thing is, what do you want to get out of the inning? In the top of a 2nd inning in a 0-0 game, you're not going to bunt, b/c it gives an out to the other team.


I'm the bottom of the 9th in a 4-4 game? man on 2nd no out? lol...bunt that shit.

:clap:

finally someone with logic.

 

[Captain Obvious]

What?!?!?! jesus christ.

In all the situations you can possibly come up with runners on/off base, hitter 1-9 up, inning, number of outs, etc. There are very few situations in which you should bunt.

The main thing is, what do you want to get out of the inning? In the top of a 2nd inning in a 0-0 game, you're not going to bunt, b/c it gives an out to the other team.


I'm the bottom of the 9th in a 4-4 game? man on 2nd no out? lol...bunt that shit.

With that situation, it depends on who you have up. If you have a < .300 wOBA hitter up, you're supposed to swing, if not, you're supposed to bunt. It doesn't take into account streaks and what not and who is on deck, of course, however you'd be smarter off(that sounds dumb lol) to hit it. Of course there are exceptions, but the higher run expectancy is to not bunt.

If I have a 3 hitter who hits a lot of deep fly balls and a lot of home runs and the lead off hitter gets on, I have him steal 2nd and then try to bunt him over. This way a fly ball from your 3 hitter gets home a run.

I would do this in the first inning.

To do that in the 1st inning is stupid. You're giving up an out in a position where you can capitalize and score more runs.

As far as your idea of stealing and bunting, you have to consider that you have a lot of risk in that. First off, your runner could get thrown out, then you're really SOL. Second, if the bunt doesn't work, you just wasted an out. If your 2 hitter is Darwin Barney, yeah, bunt. But if your 2 hitter is Castro, don't bunt. Most of it goes back the players wOBA, unless of course Castro is 0-for-themonth and Barney is on fire.

 

[Jntg4]

Shut up CO, Barney is way better than Castro. Castro can't field a ball to save his life.

 

[Rice Cube]

Shut up CO, Barney is way better than Castro. Castro can't field a ball to save his life.

I sincerely hope that this is a joke.

 

[nwfisch]

In all the situations you can possibly come up with runners on/off base, hitter 1-9 up, inning, number of outs, etc. There are very few situations in which you should bunt.



With that situation, it depends on who you have up. If you have a < .300 wOBA hitter up, you're supposed to swing, if not, you're supposed to bunt. It doesn't take into account streaks and what not and who is on deck, of course, however you'd be smarter off(that sounds dumb lol) to hit it. Of course there are exceptions, but the higher run expectancy is to not bunt.



To do that in the 1st inning is stupid. You're giving up an out in a position where you can capitalize and score more runs.

As far as your idea of stealing and bunting, you have to consider that you have a lot of risk in that. First off, your runner could get thrown out, then you're really SOL. Second, if the bunt doesn't work, you just wasted an out. If your 2 hitter is Darwin Barney, yeah, bunt. But if your 2 hitter is Castro, don't bunt. Most of it goes back the players wOBA, unless of course Castro is 0-for-themonth and Barney is on fire.

Who's going to sit in the 9th inning worrying about wOBA?

If a move can win the game, it gets done, regardless. People on here sometimes get too infatuated with numbers and forget about just making a move to win the game, not necessarily scoring the most theoretical runs possible.

 

[nwfisch]

I sincerely hope that this is a joke.

Should have been in green

 

[Rice Cube]

Who's going to sit in the 9th inning worrying about wOBA?

If a move can win the game, it gets done, regardless. People on here sometimes get too infatuated with numbers and forget about just making a move to win the game, not necessarily scoring the most theoretical runs possible.

Some people also forget that at the end game, you play for win expectancy, not run expectancy. I'm too lazy to look it up, but let's say there's a man on second with no outs. You successfully bunt him over. What is the difference in win expectancy between a man on second, one out, versus a man on third, one out? In those situations a bunt works out rather well, methinks. Someone should look that up because I'm too lazy to.

But it's less so in the first inning. In the early innings you just want to score as much as possible.

 

[Rice Cube]

Should have been in green

Definitely Otherwise...facepalm worthy.

 

[Jntg4]

Should have been in green

Or so you think...

 

[Rice Cube]

Win expectancy, but from 2002. Someone else can figure out win expectancy over the past decade in each situation if they want.

http://www.tangotiger.net/welist.html

The situation I'm thinking of is man on, no outs, down one run. If I'm reading this right, if you have that man on first base, you don't bunt because doing so will get him into scoring position, but will cost you an out and about 5% (0.331 to 0.282) in win expectancy...this of course is better than a double play, which would give you bases empty and two outs and drop your win expectancy to 0.042. However, if that man is on second base, with no outs the win expectancy is 0.437. Bunting him to third will cost one out, but the win expectancy only drops to 0.412 which is substantially better than the GIDP situation but still not better than if the guy had just swung away.

If you bunt the guy over from second base with one out though, you're going from 0.282 to 0.170, which would get your tying run 90 feet from home, but with two down, the sac fly is out of play and overall it just looks really stupid.

If the game is tied, though, win expectancies will change with the situation. Bunting the guy over from second base with no outs will actually increase your win expectancy. Generally it's not a bad idea to do this, then, if you are the home team, you know how many runs you need, and the score is tied. So there is a time and place for the bunt.

Again this is a win expectancy table from way back so things might change when a bigger sample size of data is considered, but just an example I thought would help some of you STFU already.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Who's going to sit in the 9th inning worrying about wOBA?

If a move can win the game, it gets done, regardless. People on here sometimes get too infatuated with numbers and forget about just making a move to win the game, not necessarily scoring the most theoretical runs possible.

I'm going to worry about wOBA. Do you want a guy who has a .200 wOBA or a guy with a .450 wOBA up?

Sure a move can win a game, but which move gives you the best shot depends on the player you have up at the plate.

Win expectancy, but from 2002. Someone else can figure out win expectancy over the past decade in each situation if they want.

http://www.tangotiger.net/welist.html

The situation I'm thinking of is man on, no outs, down one run. If I'm reading this right, if you have that man on first base, you don't bunt because doing so will get him into scoring position, but will cost you an out and about 5% (0.331 to 0.282) in win expectancy...this of course is better than a double play, which would give you bases empty and two outs and drop your win expectancy to 0.042. However, if that man is on second base, with no outs the win expectancy is 0.437. Bunting him to third will cost one out, but the win expectancy only drops to 0.412 which is substantially better than the GIDP situation but still not better than if the guy had just swung away.

If you bunt the guy over from second base with one out though, you're going from 0.282 to 0.170, which would get your tying run 90 feet from home, but with two down, the sac fly is out of play and overall it just looks really stupid.

If the game is tied, though, win expectancies will change with the situation. Bunting the guy over from second base with no outs will actually increase your win expectancy. Generally it's not a bad idea to do this, then, if you are the home team, you know how many runs you need, and the score is tied. So there is a time and place for the bunt.

Again this is a win expectancy table from way back so things might change when a bigger sample size of data is considered, but just an example I thought would help some of you STFU already.

If you're in the bottom of the 9th, in a tie game, you should bunt, as it increases your WE by 0.018. However, it does come down to the dude you have up. If you're in the top of the 9th, in a tie game, then there is only a 0.001 difference.

However, if you're in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, your RE is higher with the guy on 2nd with 0 outs than the guy one 3rd with 1 out. But you only need one run and you're about 14% more likely to get one run with the guy one 3rd.

In the situation with a guy on 1st no outs down one, what inning are you referring to? Because the numbers I'm looking at for the bottom of the 9th are different. However, I didn't really look at the numbers in your link, I'm using The Book.

 

[Rice Cube]

I'm going to worry about wOBA. Do you want a guy who has a .200 wOBA or a guy with a .450 wOBA up?

Sure a move can win a game, but which move gives you the best shot depends on the player you have up at the plate.



If you're in the bottom of the 9th, in a tie game, you should bunt, as it increases your WE by 0.018. However, it does come down to the dude you have up. If you're in the top of the 9th, in a tie game, then there is only a 0.001 difference.

However, if you're in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, your RE is higher with the guy on 2nd with 0 outs than the guy one 3rd with 1 out. But you only need one run and you're about 14% more likely to get one run with the guy one 3rd.

In the situation with a guy on 1st no outs down one, what inning are you referring to? Because the numbers I'm looking at for the bottom of the 9th are different. However, I didn't really look at the numbers in your link, I'm using The Book.

I have also read The Book. I think that win expectancy chart is only for 2002 whereas in The Book they used data from 1999 to 2002 so the numbers are probably different but not too much so. I'm only using bottom of the 9th as an example because if you're the away team, bunting for one run doesn't make as much sense.

 

[Jntg4]

You guys honestly think that Castro > Barney? :lmao:

 

[nwfisch]

I'm going to worry about wOBA.

So nobody cares?

 

[Jntg4]

So nobody cares?

Why does anybody care about weighted OBesity Average?

 

[nwfisch]

Why does anybody care about weighted OBesity Average?

Spoiler

:crazydance: