Shohei Ohtani Sweepstakes

[TL1961]

I am not sure what you mean when you say “they will make a rule“ as they’re already our rules and teams have been doing this for a long long time as the famous Bobby Bonilla contract, that Beckdawg referenced, points out

 

[knoxville7]

lots of coping already here lol

 

[Castor76]

I am not sure what you mean when you say “they will make a rule“ as they’re already our rules and teams have been doing this for a long long time as the famous Bobby Bonilla contract, that Beckdawg referenced, points out

I don't know their exact rules, but I can see a cap being set on what percent of a deal can be deferred if one doesn't already exist. Other thoughts I hade about this is the lower revenue teams are being cheated out of the CBT tax they should be getting but aren't because of the deferrals.

 

[CSF77]

lots of coping already here lol

Fans should be used to it by now. Every year the Cubs are named for #Player and every year #Nope.

So maybe it is more about using the Cubs to drive up vs a legit place for prime F/A to.land.

 

[beckdawg]

lots of coping already here lol

I mean for me personally, I said from the start I much preferred Soto the player to Othani though obviously the circumstances aren't equal. If you look at the age curve for position players most trail off very hard after 31. For example Pujols from 21-31 put up 81.2 fWAR and past 31 only put up 7.6. Pitching(with health) can last much longer if you look at the Randy Johnson's and Verlander's of the world but that assumes health for a guy coming off a second tommy john and who while good recently pitching isn't really to their level.

Additionally, the fact he's a DH muddies the water a ton. If you look from 1980 to the present at players 31 or older there's 17 seasons of 5 fWAR. 6 of them are Edgar Martinez. Paul Molitor had 2 as did Giambi. Others are Ortiz(2007), Frank Thomas(2000), Palmerio(1999), David Justice(2000), Nelson Cruz(2015), Reggie Jackson(1980), and Mickey Tettleton(1992). In other words, you have to be a pretty special bat to be worth $46 mil aav a season that's now being reported. If and this is a big if Ohtani pitches well the burden comes down considerably.

That being said, I think the media have built him up with so much hype. Like I routinely hear "best player ever" labels thrown on him which statistically is absurd. I obviously see that he's one of the more unique talents ever being this good hitting and pitching but he's purely a DH who as a pitcher is coming off a major injury. I feel like the hype cycle has built him up to an impossible level to reach.

 

[Probie2429]

The contract defers all but 20 million until the contract expires. This deal is not good for the competitive balance of the league.

 

[Castor76]

The contract defers all but 20 million until the contract expires. This deal is not good for the competitive balance of the league.

There is no way MLB should allow that. I just read that it will still count 46M against the CBT, but that's freeing up 24M to go after other FAs. That much money can get almost any FA left short of the top FA starting pitchers.

 

[beckdawg]

The contract defers all but 20 million until the contract expires. This deal is not good for the competitive balance of the league.

I get the worry but I'm not sure how much it truly matters from a competitive sense. Like the way the league views money this is effectively a 10 year $460 mil contract. If they were to disallow deferment he likely still gets a 10 year $460 mil contract or something close to that. Like that's essentially what we heard Soto was looking for.

In other words, from a competitive sense only, the only number that matters is the number in comparison to your CBT. I suppose you could argue the $240 mil extra from Ohtani's perspective makes it more enticing to sign with the dodgers and that's likely true but I don't really think that's the sole reason he signed with the dodgers.

For example, the dodgers currently are set to pay Ohtani, Freeman and Betts $96,611,728 next season(in CBT numbers not actual salary). If for example they end up paying $25-30 mil for a starter be that glasnow or someone else, they will have committed like $120-125 mil to 4 players with the first CBT threshold being $237 mil. So they'd have roughly $110 mil for the other 36 men on their 40 man or roughly $3 mil per player. In my mind that's fine. If there's an issue it is that going significantly over the CBT threshold should have more teeth to it if that's what you're trying to accomplish to make things "fair". But the fact that it's like a soft salary cap and some teams just don't care is more the issue to me.

 

[beckdawg]

Also, ignoring the whole mets way of going super over CBT....

I think it's an interesting discussion on roster construction to play like this vs spending money more evenly. It's kinda the fantasy sport thing of stars and scrubs vs well rounded teams. And for baseball at least, being more well rounded historically has been the better play because of injuries. But as mentioned if teams can just go crazy over CBT and have stars and stars instead of stars and scrubs it's a bit more unfair.

 

[Castor76]

I get the worry but I'm not sure how much it truly matters from a competitive sense. Like the way the league views money this is effectively a 10 year $460 mil contract. If they were to disallow deferment he likely still gets a 10 year $460 mil contract or something close to that. Like that's essentially what we heard Soto was looking for.

In other words, from a competitive sense only, the only number that matters is the number in comparison to your CBT. I suppose you could argue the $240 mil extra from Ohtani's perspective makes it more enticing to sign with the dodgers and that's likely true but I don't really think that's the sole reason he signed with the dodgers.

For example, the dodgers currently are set to pay Ohtani, Freeman and Betts $96,611,728 next season(in CBT numbers not actual salary). If for example they end up paying $25-30 mil for a starter be that glasnow or someone else, they will have committed like $120-125 mil to 4 players with the first CBT threshold being $237 mil. So they'd have roughly $110 mil for the other 36 men on their 40 man or roughly $3 mil per player. In my mind that's fine. If there's an issue it is that going significantly over the CBT threshold should have more teeth to it if that's what you're trying to accomplish to make things "fair". But the fact that it's like a soft salary cap and some teams just don't care is more the issue to me.

Except it's not a 460M contract over 10 years, or shouldn't be. There are already 5 teams set to be over the CBT for 2024. The Dodgers would make 6. I would then expect the Rangers to make it 7 and actually hope the Cubs make it 8. If that were the case, there are 22 teams that would be shorted on the amount of Competitive Balance Tax money they should be getting simply because a bad use of an option let's the Dodgers or other teams kick that part of the can down the road. Not to mention it keeps the Dodgers as a viable option for many other top FAs. As Cots has it, the Dodgers 40 man CBT now at about 14.5M below the threshold. They will most likely still go over it when they add pitching. With that in mind, their tax penalty will be significantly less as 24M reduces it a complete level for surcharge and possibly keeps their draft pick from being affected.

That it's a soft cap doesn't bother me. What bothers me is how what few road blocks have been set are so easily treated as nothing. I see where the Dodgers will pay him 68M a year for the 10 years right after the contract. Will that only count as the remaining 24M against the CBT?

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I definitely think the next CBA agreement is going to address this. It pretty much makes the soft can and even softer cap.

 

[Chicagosports89]

I definitely think the next CBA agreement is going to address this. It pretty much makes the soft can and even softer cap.

It'll be interesting to see how a $68 million dead cap hit impacts the dodgers in 10 years (for 10 years)

 

[beckdawg]

I'll be honest, the more I read about the Ohtani deal the more i feel its a pr thing more than a competitive balance issue. As I've said before, the league basically views this as a 10 year $460 mil contract because of the deferred money which given the player he is would not be a crazy present day contract. The $700 mil figure tops Lionel Messi's $674 mil deal which allows them to say it's the biggest sports contract ever and all that jazz. And the thing is the league doesn't have to allow this contract. There were talks of people extending a contract to 14 years to peoples mid 40 seasons to circumvent CBT numbers but they quashed those ideas.

It's also possibly a tax dodge from Ohtani's side because i'm not entirely certain how it works but California obviously has high tax rates so if he's getting $68 mil after he leaves the dodgers in a more tax friendly environment he takes home more.

Either way, people can disagree but to me I don't think the contract really hurts competitive balance. and I would argue it's purely a win now contract and when i say win now i mean in 3-5 years cuz after that the contract looks horrid. Even great hitters tend to fall off hard after age 33. Happened to Pujols. Happened to Miggy Cabrera. If it happens to Ohtani that is the most untradable contract in MLB history.