Shohei Ohtani Sweepstakes

[CSF77]

I was sort of joking about Bellinger. Has hard contact issues. I like his 2 strike approach and we know what to expect for the most part with him.

I believe he's good for 30 home runs a 300 batting average and better than average defense at first and any outfield position. As far as the Cubs are concerned they have question marks in centerfield first base and a core left-handed hitter.

Now I do get in the hole hard contact issue but I'd rather look at what he brings to the table which is a lot versus what he doesn't bring which is just one thing

That said if they target Hoskins and they decide to move Moral to third base and they can keep the parts moving of course as things change I mean with DH and morale can move around and so can Bellinger. It honestly is probably not a bad idea to go that direction

 

[Castor76]

While I'm a little sad not to get him, I'm not sad not to have that price. It's said to have a lot of it deferred, but we'll have to wait and see exactly what that means. Even if it's half the salary over another 20 years, that's 17.5M in dead money for 20 years after the deal. It's going to come down to the exacts, but the Dodgers may have handcuffed themselves some for the next 4 years. They are paying almost 55M to Betts and Freeman over that time. At half deferred, that's almost 90M in total when you add Ohtani and they still haven't addressed their starting pitching for 2024 or beyond. They're on a reset CBT so they have some time before the real penalties kick in, but kick in they will.

And if they don't win the Series at least twice, this is a failed signing. That's too much to invest to only win it once in a decade.

 

[Diehardfan]

I'd imagine at this no one on this forum would want him, lol. This is insane, can get 3 players for that.

I said weeks ago....Bellinger, Hader and Hoskins. You can get all three for less money....he's a hell of a player but until he proves he can bounce back and pitch again, he's just a high priced DH. The three I mentioned can and will all help you now. But with Hoyer that's probably a pipe dream as well as @Chicagosports89 already pointed out.

​

 

[Castor76]

The price for Soto next year starts with a 6 and may go to a 7.

 

[CSF77]

I said weeks ago....Bellinger, Hader and Hoskins. You can get all three for less money....he's a hell of a player but until he proves he can bounce back and pitch again, he's just a high priced DH. The three I mentioned can and will all help you now. But with Hoyer that's probably a pipe dream as well as @Chicagosports89 already pointed out.

​

I'll bet that SFG and Jed are talking to Boras ASAP

Yankee's already made their bed. So it is a 2 horse race. I would give the edge to CHC as he has been a part of the culture.


If Jed gets him and Hoskins and lets the SP stick internal we are in a decent place going in

If they keep PCA in Iowa

Happ LF
Bellinger CF
Suzuki RF
Morel 3B
Swanson SS
Hoerner 2B
Hoskins 1B
Gomes C
Wisdom/Mervis DH

 

[TL1961]

I'm just glad that Jed and Tom were involved with a contract of this magnitude. It shows that they're willing to spend money to make this team better.

And yet, they spent nothing.

 

[CSF77]

And yet, they spent nothing.

Not the point. Say Jed offers 575. And Ohtani takes him up on it.

To even be in the conversation means that they were willing to spend a record breaking deal

If they were not planning to spend then back out early and get a team built.

 

[beckdawg]

I mean this deal could look really bad in 5 years. For one thing you have no idea if he bounces back well as a pitcher. For another he has a career 26.3% k rate. it works for him at the moment because he has absurd power which makes pitchers fear him thus his walk rate is higher. Of players 30 or older since 1980 with a 26% k rate or higher here's the best fWARs

2000 - Jim Edmonds 6.5 fWAR
2001 - Jim Thome 5.1 fWAR
1990 - Jesse Barfield - 4.6 fWAR
2002 - Jose Hernadez - 4.5 fWAR
2003 - Jim Thome 4.3 fWAR
2023 - Adolis Garcia 4.8 fWAR
2022 - Eugenio Suarez 4.1 fWAR
2008 - Mike Cameron 4.0 fWAR
2012 - Curtis Granderson 4.0 fWAR

No one else has had a fWAR higher than 4. With the exception of Thome, the rest all provide value at a premium defensive position(SS or CF) and in regards to Thome, while he was a DH he also has a career 16.9% walk rate. None of this is to say Ohtani is a terrible player because obviously he did hit the past 2 years. All I'm getting at is if things spiral even a bit for him this contract suddenly looks really really bad because you don't want him in the field and if he can't pitch then he has to be an elite hitter

 

[CSF77]

Belli? Chapman? Cubs ponder priorities minus Ohtani

CHICAGO – The Instagram post heard ‘round the world on Saturday afternoon featured a Dodgers logo and a few paragraphs underneath crafted by Shohei Ohtani. The two-way superstar had made his hyper-anticipated decision, opting to don Dodger blue for the next decade. Ohtani’s record contract –...

www.mlb.com

 

[Probie2429]

No one even knows if Ohtani can hit for the same power needing Tommy John. Risky move.

 

[Probie2429]

Ohtani also will be 30. If the Cubs are going to have to spend 500-600 million on someone, let it be Soto who is younger.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1733579104916492574

All I see is money that should be going to Ukraine.

 

[Castor76]

I don't know if there are any rules about how much of a contract can be deferred or over how long a period it can run, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Ohtani contract doesn't cause them to be written and 27 teams should want them.

There has to be a true downside to making a contract this large in the sense of competitive balance for baseball. It's been reported/suggested that over half the contract could be deferred. If it were 400M and that was spread out over 40 years, that would take his AAV down to 30M. Given that he is Japanese with no reported history of hard or dangerous lifestyle, the idea of him living until 80 is very realistic. This would put the Dodgers paying him 10M a year for 40 years after the main run of the contract. It's a long time but a manageable one for a team with resources such as the Dodgers. There's not a FA left on the market 40M per would get.

I know Ohtani is a unicorn, but the ability to take mega contracts like this and draw them out over lifetimes will get abused. What would stop a team from just offering/signing Soto to a 720M deal for "48" years and then DFAing him after 16 years next offseason other than there's no way he's playing fornearly half a century longer than next season? It would be the same as if the deal was for 16 years and he deferred 480M for 32 years.

 

[beckdawg]

TLDR, if the dodgers defer $400 mil over 40 years his AAV is still like $42 mil a season based on the way it's calculated. As for DFAing someone you then pay it all in one season like the cubs did with Heyward recently because contracts are guaranteed. It is a loophole but not as beneficial as people think IMO because you're still eating $10 mil for 40 years off your CBT figure. And while yes the CBT figure will increase with time you can only do that so many times before you hurt yourself long term. I mean look at the Mets still paying Bobby Bo. They are still paying him $1 mil a year until 2035.

 

[Castor76]

TLDR, if the dodgers defer $400 mil over 40 years his AAV is still like $42 mil a season based on the way it's calculated. As for DFAing someone you then pay it all in one season like the cubs did with Heyward recently because contracts are guaranteed. It is a loophole but not as beneficial as people think IMO because you're still eating $10 mil for 40 years off your CBT figure. And while yes the CBT figure will increase with time you can only do that so many times before you hurt yourself long term. I mean look at the Mets still paying Bobby Bo. They are still paying him $1 mil a year until 2035.

I'll break this apart as 250 words seems to be too much for you to read at once but over 100 is no problem for you to write.

Deferring 400M takes the AAV down to 30M. 700M minus 400M = 300M divided by 10 = 30M per year.

 

[Castor76]

TLDR, if the dodgers defer $400 mil over 40 years his AAV is still like $42 mil a season based on the way it's calculated. As for DFAing someone you then pay it all in one season like the cubs did with Heyward recently because contracts are guaranteed. It is a loophole but not as beneficial as people think IMO because you're still eating $10 mil for 40 years off your CBT figure. And while yes the CBT figure will increase with time you can only do that so many times before you hurt yourself long term. I mean look at the Mets still paying Bobby Bo. They are still paying him $1 mil a year until 2035.

Part 2 - DFAing can't work like that because Hosner was DFA'd with multiple years left and the money was just being paid by the Padres each year and any team that picked him up was only having to pay the league minimum for him.

I understand it's dead money against the CBT. But super rich teams won't care and just kick the can further down the road unless a rule stops them.

Hope this isn't too much to absorb at once.

 

[beckdawg]

Deferring 400M takes the AAV down to 30M. 700M minus 400M = 300M divided by 10 = 30M per year.

And I'm telling you that's not how they figure CBT numbers. If you really want the math of it there's a thread on twitter explaining it in detail.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1733855098231566806

But like I said, for CBT purposes even if you defer $400 mil the value toward CBT is like $42 mil. Also if you don't believe this twitter, there's reporting out there that his CBT number after deferrals is expected to be between $40-50 mil

 

[beckdawg]

Also as to your second point, i was wrong about that. I was thinking of NFL rules where if you trade/cut a player all guaranteed money counts but you are right, in a case like Hosmer his $13 mil is still on the books for 2024/25 for SD.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

And I'm telling you that's not how they figure CBT numbers. If you really want the math of it there's a thread on twitter explaining it in detail.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1733855098231566806

But like I said, for CBT purposes even if you defer $400 mil the value toward CBT is like $42 mil. Also if you don't believe this twitter, there's reporting out there that his CBT number after deferrals is expected to be between $40-50 mil

Thanks for the explanation. I wasn't sure how the deferrals worked in the cbt

 

[Castor76]

And I'm telling you that's not how they figure CBT numbers. If you really want the math of it there's a thread on twitter explaining it in detail.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1733855098231566806

But like I said, for CBT purposes even if you defer $400 mil the value toward CBT is like $42 mil. Also if you don't believe this twitter, there's reporting out there that his CBT number after deferrals is expected to be between $40-50 mil

1) Thank you for the explanation
2) I don't use twitter so I couldn't find this. Thank you sharing it.
3) I still think they'll make a rule about it, maybe not affecting this deal but ones in the future, as this would bring it down roughly 28M which would be enough to sign just about any FA left.

Smaller market teams will soon point out how the few mega rich teams will just be able to super spread out these massive contracts driving up the prices for all FAs leaving them in the cold.