Small Market Cubs?????

[CSF77]

I expect the OF to shake out in the winter meetings. It will hinge on if they decide to trade out Schierholtz or not. But, with Joe G. Deciding to stay put; the "need to put a quality team" is lessened in 2014. So in that view they could just plug a platoon partner in RF with Schierholtz and move on at low costs. 1st half of 2014 I'll bet will be little turn over from 2013. But with Baez pending it should get better. After Baez and Bryant are on the team the need will be getting a OBA bat in front of them and another LH hitter that hits for SLG. But that depends more so on Rizzo.

If Sweeney takes a step forward he may become that 2nd LH bat at low cost.

 

[Boobaby1]

I've thrown Choo out for a long time but it's beginning to look lik ehis price will be higher than I expect. Still, I'd much rather them go after Norichika Aoki, Crisp and Dejesus assuming options are declined. I'd also throw in Jeff Baker, Rajai Davis, Reed Johnson and Nate McLouth as guys I'd rather see them go after than Morse.

Maybe I wasn't clear. I am talking about a power bat in the line-up. The guys listed above provide none of that with the exception of Choo, and he is not considered a power bat, and as of now expects to get a huge pay raise.

Without a power bat in the line-up, they will simply pitch around Rizzo as he will have no protection and the Cubs will be worse off than the past two years if that's possible.. The object is to get the team better year by year and move forward.

The only way I go with any of the aforementioned players to play for the Cubs is if they are successful in getting Tanaka, extending Wood, and maybe trading Shark. Given that, I would gladly forfeit the season for a 2015 top 5 draft pick and set the next years crop of free agents as targets to go along with the pitching, Baez, and hopefully Bryant to round out the team and shoot for a playoff spot.

 

[beckdawg]

Maybe I wasn't clear. I am talking about a power bat in the line-up. The guys listed above provide none of that with the exception of Choo, and he is not considered a power bat, and as of now expects to get a huge pay raise.

Without a power bat in the line-up, they will simply pitch around Rizzo as he will have no protection and the Cubs will be worse off than the past two years if that's possible.. The object is to get the team better year by year and move forward.

The only way I go with any of the aforementioned players to play for the Cubs is if they are successful in getting Tanaka, extending Wood, and maybe trading Shark. Given that, I would gladly forfeit the season for a 2015 top 5 draft pick and set the next years crop of free agents as targets to go along with the pitching, Baez, and hopefully Bryant to round out the team and shoot for a playoff spot.

Why do they need a power hitter? They were 9th in the league in HRs last year. On the contrary, they were 27th in OBP. They would still be above league average even if you exclude the 17 that Soriano hit. And that was with Rizzo having a down year because he couldn't hit lefties. Presumably he will rebound at least some. You'd also expect Castro to rebound some. Coincidentally, the cubs were also 27th in runs scored. I'd much rather they go after players who actually get on base because that's the way you score runs. What they need is a proper lead off hitter. Also, if you have to have power, Baker put up 11 HRs in 175 PAs.

You could platoon Baker and Schierholtz in RF and have a pretty decent player. Schierholtz basically only hit righties and was a .262 hitter with the majority of his stats there. Baker hit .314 against lefties. If you add their individual splits you get 30 HRs, 83 RBIs .272 averge .320 OBP player for what maybe $10 mil total? That's basically a better Soriano when he was with the cubs. Then you look at the platoon they did this year a 3B and you've got 32 hr 80 RBI .223 average .313 OBP player. Clearly the average there is bad but they are going to be swapping out Ransom presumably for someone who hits lefties since that was Ransom's role. Maybe you grab someone like Mark DeRosa who hit .267 vs lefties. Additionally, as well as Murphy played you would expect to see him seeing more ABs than Vallbeuna out of the righty split which would push up the average as well. Regardless, they have more power than you expect. It's not pretty because it's a platoon but it's there.

It's really not difficult to see them hitting the league average in HRs. On the contrary, if you add a .270 OBP Morse how are they going to improve their .300 team OBP? To even get to league average it would need to jump 18 points.

 

[Parade_Rain]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/21989238/baseball-payrolls-list

Look at the final 4 in playoffs!! ALL BIG MARKETS!!!! LAD 2, BOS 4, DET 5, STL 11... Dont tell me that payroll dont matter. Cubs need to act like a Big Market they are and spend some money. Ricketts is a cheapass!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/articles/baseball_markets.shtml

St Louis is 7th from the bottom and Detroit is slightly more than half the market of Chicago. Of all the markets the Reds, Pirates, Rays and Cardinals all made the playoffs as small market teams.

 

[CSF77]

Thought it over. If they let it go in house they could have by season's end: Szczur CF, Alcantra 2B, Baez 3B, Rizzo 1B, Lake LF, Sweeney RF, Castro SS, Castillo C. Bryant, Almora and Soler would be at AAA at that point. So I would concider going into 2015 to trade some depth for an ace.

So in view I would retain what they have. RF let Vitters and Olt fight for a platoon spot. Keep 3B status Que for Baez. Lake or Sweeney in CF just let. Def. Dictate it til Szcur is ready.

 

[Boobaby1]

Why do they need a power hitter? They were 9th in the league in HRs last year. On the contrary, they were 27th in OBP. They would still be above league average even if you exclude the 17 that Soriano hit. And that was with Rizzo having a down year because he couldn't hit lefties. Presumably he will rebound at least some. You'd also expect Castro to rebound some. Coincidentally, the cubs were also 27th in runs scored. I'd much rather they go after players who actually get on base because that's the way you score runs. What they need is a proper lead off hitter. Also, if you have to have power, Baker put up 11 HRs in 175 PAs.

You could platoon Baker and Schierholtz in RF and have a pretty decent player. Schierholtz basically only hit righties and was a .262 hitter with the majority of his stats there. Baker hit .314 against lefties. If you add their individual splits you get 30 HRs, 83 RBIs .272 averge .320 OBP player for what maybe $10 mil total? That's basically a better Soriano when he was with the cubs. Then you look at the platoon they did this year a 3B and you've got 32 hr 80 RBI .223 average .313 OBP player. Clearly the average there is bad but they are going to be swapping out Ransom presumably for someone who hits lefties since that was Ransom's role. Maybe you grab someone like Mark DeRosa who hit .267 vs lefties. Additionally, as well as Murphy played you would expect to see him seeing more ABs than Vallbeuna out of the righty split which would push up the average as well. Regardless, they have more power than you expect. It's not pretty because it's a platoon but it's there.

It's really not difficult to see them hitting the league average in HRs. On the contrary, if you add a .270 OBP Morse how are they going to improve their .300 team OBP? To even get to league average it would need to jump 18 points.

And what's wrong with Morse's OBP? Sure, if you cherry pick and go by last years average you'd have a point. He was also injured.

A .321, .360, and a .352 OBP the previous three years before with at least 100 games played isn't exactly horrible.

In fact, he is right in line with Rizzo's .342 and .323 OBP respectively.

 

[CSF77]

I only see them signing Morse if they trade out Schierholtz. Other words signing Sweeny was because he hits LHP and they want to move away from platoons.

 

[beckdawg]

And what's wrong with Morse's OBP? Sure, if you cherry pick and go by last years average you'd have a point. He was also injured.

A .321, .360, and a .352 OBP the previous three years before with at least 100 games played isn't exactly horrible.

In fact, he is right in line with Rizzo's .342 and .323 OBP respectively.

I wasn't really cherry picking. To be honest I just didn't dig that deep into it. That being said, he's 31 and has only had 400 ABs twice in 9 seasons in the majors. I'm not going to go back and look to see if that was injuries or ineffectiveness. But, it's a concern. So, unless you're suggesting him in a platoon I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with him as a full time role. Additionally, he is a poor defender.

As for his OBP, in some regards picking the years he played over 100 games is cherry picking as well. But, for the sake of argument let's say he's between .320-330. His career is .334 and considering his career year in 2011 composes 1/4th of his PAs and he had .360 that year I think you need to discount it slightly. IIRC the league average was .319. So, that puts him slightly above average there. The names I've suggested in Aoki(.355 career OBP), Zobrist(.354), Crisp(.330), Nate McLouth(.334), Rajai Davis(.319), Jeff Baker(.321), Reed Johnson(.339) and Dejesus(.353). So, Morse would be better than Davis and Baker obviously but I would imagine he's more expensive than either of those two. Even the players that are close like Crisp and McLouth bring a lot more to the table in terms of speed and defense.

Granted, some of the names on here are guys who will be picked up on options. So, its difficult to say who's the best choice. But even if they do nothing, is Morse really that much better than Lake? With lake you're talking probably 15 HRs and 50-60 RBis 20 SBs with a .280 average and a OBP in the .320 range over a full season. Perhaps you get a bit more power out of Morse but Lake is a much better defender and gives you some speed.

So, in that regard I just don't see it. He'd have to be well under $5 mi/year to consider and I don't think he will be. They let Dejesus go who's been a much better player and would have been $6.5.

 

[daddies3angels]

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/articles/baseball_markets.shtml

St Louis is 7th from the bottom and Detroit is slightly more than half the market of Chicago. Of all the markets the Reds, Pirates, Rays and Cardinals all made the playoffs as small market teams.

So again your making my point that even so called Medium Markets have BIG MARKET payrolls while Cubs are top 3 Market in baseball are acting like low medium market team. Revenue across baseball is crazy high and teams are spending more then ever then you have cheapass Ricketts who is putting all the league revenue into his pocket while charging top NL ticket prices

 

[Boobaby1]

I wasn't really cherry picking. To be honest I just didn't dig that deep into it. That being said, he's 31 and has only had 400 ABs twice in 9 seasons in the majors. I'm not going to go back and look to see if that was injuries or ineffectiveness. But, it's a concern. So, unless you're suggesting him in a platoon I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with him as a full time role. Additionally, he is a poor defender.

As for his OBP, in some regards picking the years he played over 100 games is cherry picking as well. But, for the sake of argument let's say he's between .320-330. His career is .334 and considering his career year in 2011 composes 1/4th of his PAs and he had .360 that year I think you need to discount it slightly. IIRC the league average was .319. So, that puts him slightly above average there. The names I've suggested in Aoki(.355 career OBP), Zobrist(.354), Crisp(.330), Nate McLouth(.334), Rajai Davis(.319), Jeff Baker(.321), Reed Johnson(.339) and Dejesus(.353). So, Morse would be better than Davis and Baker obviously but I would imagine he's more expensive than either of those two. Even the players that are close like Crisp and McLouth bring a lot more to the table in terms of speed and defense.

Granted, some of the names on here are guys who will be picked up on options. So, its difficult to say who's the best choice. But even if they do nothing, is Morse really that much better than Lake? With lake you're talking probably 15 HRs and 50-60 RBis 20 SBs with a .280 average and a OBP in the .320 range over a full season. Perhaps you get a bit more power out of Morse but Lake is a much better defender and gives you some speed.

So, in that regard I just don't see it. He'd have to be well under $5 mi/year to consider and I don't think he will be. They let Dejesus go who's been a much better player and would have been $6.5.

With all the negativity you are citing about Morse, he should come relatively cheap then.

 

[beckdawg]

With all the negativity you are citing about Morse, he should come relatively cheap then.

Like I said, I think that's the crux of the issue. If he's $3 mil/year than fine I have no problem with they taking a shot on him. But he made $7 mil this year and it is unusual to have that sort of salary drop. He isn't a horrible player but I think there are better options out there.

 

[Parade_Rain]

So again your making my point that even so called Medium Markets have BIG MARKET payrolls while Cubs are top 3 Market in baseball are acting like low medium market team. Revenue across baseball is crazy high and teams are spending more then ever then you have cheapass Ricketts who is putting all the league revenue into his pocket while charging top NL ticket prices

New York Yankees $228,995,945
Los Angeles Dodgers $216,302,909
Philadelphia $159,578,214
Boston $158,967,286
Detroit $149,046,844
San Francisco $142,180,333
Los Angeles Angels $142,165,250
Texas $127,197,575
Chicago White Sox $124,065,277
Toronto $118,244,039
St. Louis $116,702,085
Washington $112,431,770
Cincinnati $110,565,728
Chicago Cubs $104,150,726
Baltimore $91,793,333
Milwaukee $91,003,366
Arizona $90,158,500
Atlanta $89,288,193
New York Mets $88,877,033
Seattle $84,295,952
Cleveland $82,517,300
Kansas City $80,491,725
Minnesota $75,562,500
Colorado $75,449,071
San Diego $71,689,900
Oakland $68,577,000
Pittsburgh $66,289,524
Tampa Bay $57,030,272
Miami $39,621,900
Houston $24,328,538

http://deadspin.com/2013-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-462765594

It doesn't look like they are spending much less than Cincinnati and St Louis, who are in the playoffs. Pittsburgh and Atlanta spent less. Small market/large market does not matter. The fact that they are bringing up young players who do not have large salaries yet also dictates some of that lack of spending. As to your issue with Ricketts, I'm glad you like spending other people's money. If I had that kind of dough, the last team I would have purchased was the Cubs. It was way too much money, Wrigley was a real dump that needed fixing up, etc. In most businesses, when you buy a failing company that is top heavy and needs significant capital improvements, you get rid of the crap and make it lean before spending. There isn't anything Ricketts is doing in that regard that bothers me outside of ticket prices. Hoyerstein OTOH can get my dander up every now and then.

 

[Boobaby1]

Like I said, I think that's the crux of the issue. If he's $3 mil/year than fine I have no problem with they taking a shot on him. But he made $7 mil this year and it is unusual to have that sort of salary drop. He isn't a horrible player but I think there are better options out there.

Well I haven't seen anyone state a player who the Cubs could get on the cheap that thrusts the team forward for the long haul, and throwing out a high higher OBP. guy out there with marginally better defense to save a couple million doesn't do a lot either.

It's obvious that you have your opinion and I have mine, and I am not going to beat this dead horse any longer. I think Morse is worth a risk because he is like all of the other players brought in to date. You ink him, hope he gets back to his power hitting numbers in a hitter friendly park, and either increase your chances of winning next year, or flip him.

 

[CSF77]

Well I haven't seen anyone state a player who the Cubs could get on the cheap that thrusts the team forward for the long haul, and throwing out a high higher OBP. guy out there with marginally better defense to save a couple million doesn't do a lot either.

It's obvious that you have your opinion and I have mine, and I am not going to beat this dead horse any longer. I think Morse is worth a risk because he is like all of the other players brought in to date. You ink him, hope he gets back to his power hitting numbers in a hitter friendly park, and either increase your chances of winning next year, or flip him.

It is a gamble and they need a RH power stick in the line up until Baez and Bryant are on the team. I do not see a problem with it to be honest.

But

I believe they should trade out Schierholtz and move Sweeney to RF if they do. Schierholtz can not hit LH pitching and they would have to either spend on a pointless RH side of a platoon as they did with Scott Hairston and cross their fingers on better production or give a unearned opportunity to either Vitters or Olt and see if they can handle the challenge of RF in Wrigley.

Lets talk some layman terms here:

Sweeney was playing RF in Iowa before the call up. He hit LH pitching at .315. Schierholtz had solid slg but his OBA was at .305 which is below league standards. Now he hit over 20 HR's in a platoon but I would call that reason to sell high vs retention for another year.

At this point it would make sense to sign a RH hitter like Morse. Cruz would be more ideal but Morse I expect will be better dollar value.

So looking at it:

2014: LF: Morse/CF: Lake/RF: Sweeney AAA: CF: Szczur AA: RF: Soler Not sure on Almora. Tempting to plug him at AA if he keeps up his production at the AFL. (Bryant is a monster there)

But the way it is panning out with Sweeney on a 2 year deal it covers the gap to Soler and he brings an all around game.

CF: Give Lake a year if he blows they have Szczur in the wings. Almora next.

LF: No heir but: Bryant is a monster...Baez could be shifted to 3B. Bingo Bryant in LF. Swear if Bryant blows up the AFL he may make the team out of S/T and screw Morse.

 

[beckdawg]

Well I haven't seen anyone state a player who the Cubs could get on the cheap that thrusts the team forward for the long haul, and throwing out a high higher OBP. guy out there with marginally better defense to save a couple million doesn't do a lot either.

It's obvious that you have your opinion and I have mine, and I am not going to beat this dead horse any longer. I think Morse is worth a risk because he is like all of the other players brought in to date. You ink him, hope he gets back to his power hitting numbers in a hitter friendly park, and either increase your chances of winning next year, or flip him.

If they could find a solid lead off hitter I think that would give them something they are missing over the next say 4 years. I'm not really sold on Castro being that guy. Lake has potential I suppose to do it but it's probably too early to say. And as for the guys in the minors, I'm not sure any are a prototypical lead off hitter. Some probably can do it but guys like say Almora and Alcantra might be better in a 2 hole or somewhere later in the line up. On the other hand, They presumably have power guys in the mold of Morse. I'd be ok if they were going to try and flip him but given his track record, I'm not sure he's much of a guarantee to see enough ABs to warrant value.

That said, I agree that no one out there is a really big piece of the future at cubs prices. However, I feel if you want to get a big improvement anywhere it needs to come out of the 1 and 2 hitters. This link shows how terrible lead off was and that's with Dejesus being half way decent and obviously gone now.. This link shows how equally bad the 2 hole was. Simply stated, a .257 average with .321 OBP out of the 1 hole and .244 average with .310 OBP out of the 2 hole just isn't getting things done. Even if Castro rebounds big time to say 2011 levels you still need someone for the other position. I don't think any of us want Vallbeuna in either hole. I don't see them replacing Barney. So, that guy is going to have to come out of the OF. If Schierholtz and Morse are full time players that leaves your only choice as Lake or Sweeney in CF.

That's why I'm pushing for the guys I listed. Morse isn't someone you're going to bat in the first two slots. And I don't think you want to push Rizzo up to the #2. So, if you sign him to play outfield you're basically relying on Castro and I guess Lake/Sweeney as the 1/2 hole guys.

 

[CSF77]

If they could find a solid lead off hitter I think that would give them something they are missing over the next say 4 years. I'm not really sold on Castro being that guy. Lake has potential I suppose to do it but it's probably too early to say. And as for the guys in the minors, I'm not sure any are a prototypical lead off hitter. Some probably can do it but guys like say Almora and Alcantra might be better in a 2 hole or somewhere later in the line up. On the other hand, They presumably have power guys in the mold of Morse. I'd be ok if they were going to try and flip him but given his track record, I'm not sure he's much of a guarantee to see enough ABs to warrant value.

They could just let things play out with Castro in 14' then promote Szczur later in the year to take over. I do not see them spending high dollar on a OBA stick.


What I seeing happen is Bryant moved to LF/Baez to 3B/ Alcantra to 2B/ Almora or Szczur or Lake in CF depending on how it shakes out. They will figure out a lead off and #2 hitter to get ahead of Bryant/Rizzo and Baez in the line up.

 

[Crystallas]

The Cubs have two options.
1) Spend a ton of money, miss the playoffs. YES, TAKE THIS TO THE BANK, nobody is giving up enough game-changing players to make the Cubs a contender. They might, if you have God-Mode enabled on your video game, and base reality on your fantasy.
2) Save a ton of money, keep developing, miss the playoffs.


The willingness to spend money when it matters is FAR more important than just throwing money at a problem to fix it.

Right now, the Cubs need to save payroll money, profit up, save up, and when the FA market is right, combine some uber-talents with all hoards of prospects on the team. Big market, small-market. It doesn't matter when you are rebuilding.

 

[patg006]

The Cubs have two options.
1) Spend a ton of money, miss the playoffs. YES, TAKE THIS TO THE BANK, nobody is giving up enough game-changing players to make the Cubs a contender. They might, if you have God-Mode enabled on your video game, and base reality on your fantasy.
2) Save a ton of money, keep developing, miss the playoffs.


The willingness to spend money when it matters is FAR more important than just throwing money at a problem to fix it.

Right now, the Cubs need to save payroll money, profit up, save up, and when the FA market is right, combine some uber-talents with all hoards of prospects on the team. Big market, small-market. It doesn't matter when you are rebuilding.

How about option 3:

Spend the right amount of money on players that will help the team and fix holes from years past, but don't put themselves in terrible contract situations. Nobody is saying sign Bobi Cano and Timmy Lincecum.

But Morse or David Murphy (5-12 mil depending; the OF market is truly skewwed with Pence getting paid), McCann (10-12), Chavez (2-4), Frasor (4-7 mil) for the bullpen, even Grant Balfour (made 4 mil last year, due for a raise. 2 years 16-20 mil) and you really haven't spent a ton of money you seem to have insinuated. The payroll would go from ~55 mil pre-free agency/arb to roughly 90-95 mil, STILL less than what they spent last year.

And what do you know, at the same time you still keep developing, save the payroll from "bad contracts,"(I'm too lazy to rant about how this is something dumb fans think) and then, if they are out of it come the deadline, ship them for more talent.

Did I just do that crazy little 'both' thing again? I'm sorry, I keep forgetting its either: spend money like crazy or hide in the shell/depths and develop talent. 'Both' is an unspeakable term on this board......

 

[dabynsky]

How about option 3:

Spend the right amount of money on players that will help the team and fix holes from years past, but don't put themselves in terrible contract situations. Nobody is saying sign Bobi Cano and Timmy Lincecum.

But Morse or David Murphy (5-12 mil depending; the OF market is truly skewwed with Pence getting paid), McCann (10-12), Chavez (2-4), Frasor (4-7 mil) for the bullpen, even Grant Balfour (made 4 mil last year, due for a raise. 2 years 16-20 mil) and you really haven't spent a ton of money you seem to have insinuated. The payroll would go from ~55 mil pre-free agency/arb to roughly 90-95 mil, STILL less than what they spent last year.

And what do you know, at the same time you still keep developing, save the payroll from "bad contracts,"(I'm too lazy to rant about how this is something dumb fans think) and then, if they are out of it come the deadline, ship them for more talent.

Did I just do that crazy little 'both' thing again? I'm sorry, I keep forgetting its either: spend money like crazy or hide in the shell/depths and develop talent. 'Both' is an unspeakable term on this board......

Are you willing to admit the costs of trying option 3 from day 1 of the Theo Epstein regime because that would mean no Kris Bryant at a bare minimum in the farm system now.

 

[CSF77]

I believe they will do both.

But the both is depend on their own developed talent and use F/A to support them.

VS

buying a team and using the farm to support the F/A.