Soler Power: Cubs Minor League Thread v2

dabynsky · Aug 15, 2012

2SeamHeat said:
And yet, the majority of college players still sit in the minors for 3-4 full seasons these days. The fact that the majority of the guys I list hit the majors by the time they were 22-23, despite being drafted at 20-21... it suggests promoting guys as they seem to be progressing beyond their current level, and when they appear to be capable of making it in the majors.

Look at Baez this year. Drafted last year and played all of 5 games. He's already at high A at the age of 19. If he continues at this pace, he'll be in the majors at 21 in 2014 (possible Sept callup next year... though extremely unlikely). He's not going at an annual step-by-step pace as a cautious "slow approach" would suggest. If Almora moves at a similar pace (which was widely suggested at the time of his drafting... and he happens to be on right now with his promotion to Boise), he could end up in the majors a year earlier than suggest. However, 2016 would still be a fairly quick pace, as it would be only 3.5 years for a high school kid.

It still matters though in terms of development, and is something that shouldn't be glossed over. The Red Sox have were more cautious than the Cubs who pushed anyone who looked like they might be something really quickly through the system. I agree that the 162 thing is overplayed, but their track record suggest that they are more cautious than the Cubs who rushed Patterson, Pie, Castro, and a number of other guys up here.

2SeamHeat · Aug 15, 2012

Jntg4 said:
My interpretation was that Mesa/Boise/Peoria counted as one combined level to them... but you are right, the track record isn't there at all.

They've been more cautious than others have though, Zunino debuted in AA yesterday

I just see it as they are promoting guys as they believe they are ready to move up. Some guys advance quickly, others do not. Also, I think there might also be something with the coaching staff at Tennessee... as I was surprised to not see Lake, Watkins, and Bour promoted to Iowa. However, I read somewhere... and trying to find the link now... that the FO likes Duncan's coaching approach at both the plate and IF defense... and that's why those three are still there. The same was said about Desi Wilson's coaching approach at the plate at Daytona, hence why Baez was moved there, Villanueva was assigned there and not Tennessee, and why it's not expected for Alcantara to be promoted when/if he comes back or Torreyes getting promoted despite his incredible past couple of months or pure dominance.

2SeamHeat · Aug 15, 2012

dabynsky said:
It still matters though in terms of development, and is something that shouldn't be glossed over. The Red Sox have were more cautious than the Cubs who pushed anyone who looked like they might be something really quickly through the system. I agree that the 162 thing is overplayed, but their track record suggest that they are more cautious than the Cubs who rushed Patterson, Pie, Castro, and a number of other guys up here.

While you are correct that they rushed both Patterson and Castro (defensively at least), I disagree with you on Pie. The only place where Pie might have been rushed was moving him through AA to AAA after just playing half a season there due to injury. However, he did spend full seasons at Lansing (low A), and Daytona (high A) prior to that, and a full season and a half at Iowa before getting his chance at the majors.

The point I'm trying to make is that this FO has a track record of moving guys as they appear to be ready. They don't seem to rush guys too often (though you can make the argument they might have rushed Bucholz a bit), but they also don't really hold guys back all that often either. If a guy moves quickly through the system while constantly showing progress in his development, then so be it. If he moves a bit more slowly, but shows the same pace of development, then so be it. I do think they are rushing Jackson right now. However, I don't really see a lot of other examples of rushing someone right now... nor do I see a lot of holding guys back. There's at least some explanation as to why certain guys have not been promoted based around the coaches that are currently helping their development more than the FO feels the coaches at the upper level can at this time.

dabynsky · Aug 15, 2012

I agree 2Seam that they move people when they appear to be ready, and that is what I like from this FO. Also might explain why Fleita was let go given that he was in charge of the Cubs typically aggressive promotions under the previous regime. The point about college players is that with more experience they were more ready to move through the system quickly. Whereas the Cubs would move guys through the system whether they were deserving or not.

dabynsky · Aug 15, 2012

Almora hit a bomb in his second Boise at bat.

dabynsky · Aug 15, 2012

And now the best name in the minors Rock Shoulders absolute crushes one. Boise is the most talented team in the Cubs system which is both exciting and depressing.