Starlin Castro All-Star?

[Rice Cube]

baseball is way passed fangraphs as far as how they evaluate.

there is not one metric that can tell me with authority what a player is going to do in the future. I read all of the write ups on adam dunn, and every single write up was wrong. Baseball is a game of chance, there is no metric that is going to predict the future season of a specific player. We all can guess on what could or should happen based on large sizes of numbers in a career with factors of age/stadium (weather conditions) division opponents etc, but no one and no metric can set a stat line out for the future, and anyone who believes in that is challenged.

It's definitely a game of probability, but since probability still has a basis, you can gauge at what probability a player will perform to his predicted talent level, so there's something to be said for that. All that said, this is why the games are played on the field, not on paper.

 

[poodski]

baseball is way passed fangraphs as far as how they evaluate.

there is not one metric that can tell me with authority what a player is going to do in the future. I read all of the write ups on adam dunn, and every single write up was wrong. Baseball is a game of chance, there is no metric that is going to predict the future season of a specific player. We all can guess on what could or should happen based on large sizes of numbers in a career with factors of age/stadium (weather conditions) division opponents etc, but no one and no metric can set a stat line out for the future, and anyone who believes in that is challenged.

If someone could predict the future then they would be trillionaires. They are projections. Just that. Just like financial projections.

No different.

No one has ever said that projections should be taken as gospel but it has been proven that certain stats (like FIP) are better at projecting future performance than others (like ERA). That doesn't mean that I can look at a players FIP and no what he is going to pitch next year. Looking at one player rather than a whole lot of players is pretty Special person.

 

[poodski]

Well, it's not really like that. The advanced metrics try to dissect every nuance of a play and tease out the principal components are that the most important factors in evaluating skill. They're not really as commonplace as results-based stats like ERA or RBI, but they do tell you what a given player is likely to be able to do going forward. ERA and RBI tell you what they've already done, which is a function of their skills as evaluated by SABR-stats. The numbers aren't "fake" because they are being calculated using real situations that have already happened. Every batted ball is given an ID, every pitch has been tracked, etc. The formulas and stuff are different, but they are all meant to ask "who is the better player" and not "who had the best results". Of course, baseball being a results-based business, you obviously want to try to get the guys who give you the best results.

There are two ways to go about that. One is the one tried by Jim Hendry, who looks at their RBIs and what not and thinks "Hmmm, this guy is probably going to do that again next year" without realizing that the guy is going to age, decline, and maybe having a fluky year.

The other is what SABR nerds in their basements do, and that is to dissect out the nuances of the player as stated above and see what they can do as an individual, outside the context of the team. If he has a good eye, good plate discipline, good power, he'll probably be okay no matter where you stick him in the lineup. Same thing with pitchers. So there's a place for SABR, and it's the reason why teams in the AL East are so successful.

That and the AL East has gobs of money

I think the A's proved that SABR works. More specifically moneyball works.

Barring injuries to their entire staff they were starting to show that moneyball is still alive any well. The Mariners are doing a weird version of moneyball but are also showing it's alive. Mostly because the Mariners have guys like Ichiro driving up the price. But they took players like Franklin Gutierrez and turned them into full time players, that perform well above what their salary indicates.

I want to love the Mariners because of Jack Z and Tom Tango, but Carson Cistulli and Dave Cameron have really soured them for me. Almost to where I hate them as much as the Phillies...... almost.

 

[daddies3angels]

I think the A's proved that SABR works. More specifically moneyball works.

Barring injuries to their entire staff they were starting to show that moneyball is still alive any well. The Mariners are doing a weird version of moneyball but are also showing it's alive. Mostly because the Mariners have guys like Ichiro driving up the price. But they took players like Franklin Gutierrez and turned them into full time players, that perform well above what their salary indicates.

I want to love the Mariners because of Jack Z and Tom Tango, but Carson Cistulli and Dave Cameron have really soured them for me. Almost to where I hate them as much as the Phillies...... almost.

What have SEA and OAK won in the last decade? Nothing.

 

[waldo7239117]

This thread became ruin.... That's why I'm never in her because it's not that thread anymore lol. Title changed.

 

[daddies3angels]

Well, it's not really like that. The advanced metrics try to dissect every nuance of a play and tease out the principal components are that the most important factors in evaluating skill. They're not really as commonplace as results-based stats like ERA or RBI, but they do tell you what a given player is likely to be able to do going forward. ERA and RBI tell you what they've already done, which is a function of their skills as evaluated by SABR-stats. The numbers aren't "fake" because they are being calculated using real situations that have already happened. Every batted ball is given an ID, every pitch has been tracked, etc. The formulas and stuff are different, but they are all meant to ask "who is the better player" and not "who had the best results". Of course, baseball being a results-based business, you obviously want to try to get the guys who give you the best results.

There are two ways to go about that. One is the one tried by Jim Hendry, who looks at their RBIs and what not and thinks "Hmmm, this guy is probably going to do that again next year" without realizing that the guy is going to age, decline, and maybe having a fluky year.

The other is what SABR nerds in their basements do, and that is to dissect out the nuances of the player as stated above and see what they can do as an individual, outside the context of the team. If he has a good eye, good plate discipline, good power, he'll probably be okay no matter where you stick him in the lineup. Same thing with pitchers. So there's a place for SABR, and it's the reason why teams in the AL East are so successful.

That and the AL East has gobs of money

I say this the reason why they win alot

 

[daddies3angels]

This thread became ruin.... That's why I'm never in her because it's not that thread anymore lol. Title changed.

It depends if manager wants 3 SS on roster or not. If he wants only 2 then he out and Marshall the guy in. There back on tractk

 

[poodski]

What have SEA and OAK won in the last decade? Nothing.

Well Seattle has really only done the sabermetric thing for a few years, but they are only a game and a half out of the division lead despite sucking for the first month and a half.

Oakland won 87 games or more for 8 straight years. Won 5 division titles.

Don't confuse WS titles with not winning anything. All you can do is get there the best team rarely wins the WS.

 

[Rice Cube]

I say this the reason why they win alot

They also have better farm systems than the Cubs.

 

[waldo7239117]

It depends if manager wants 3 SS on roster or not. If he wants only 2 then he out and Marshall the guy in. There back on tractk

They have gone with 4 1B in the past so I think 3 SS will be fine. But manager Bruce Bochey said he's gona be bias while picking his players. Which is completely BS.

 

[daddies3angels]

They have gone with 4 1B in the past so I think 3 SS will be fine. But manager Bruce Bochey said he's gona be bias while picking his players. Which is completely BS.

I actually understand that. His players helped him win WS last year and he feels they should be awarded. Managers really dont have to many picks anymore anyways.

 

[daddies3angels]

Well Seattle has really only done the sabermetric thing for a few years, but they are only a game and a half out of the division lead despite sucking for the first month and a half.

Oakland won 87 games or more for 8 straight years. Won 5 division titles.

Don't confuse WS titles with not winning anything. All you can do is get there the best team rarely wins the WS.

Teams like PHI, BOS, NYY whos spend the money have gotten to playoffs and WON WS though. So i rather follow there ways then sabermetric way.

 

[poodski]

They have gone with 4 1B in the past so I think 3 SS will be fine. But manager Bruce Bochey said he's gona be bias while picking his players. Which is completely BS.

Castro will get in. I don't see any way he doesn't.

 

[daddies3angels]

Castro will get in. I don't see any way he doesn't.

Cubs will have only 1 representive and if im manager i pick who i think will help team win more and i take Marshall to face really tough LHB late in games.

 

[waldo7239117]

Middle RP usually never make it and I saw somewhere today that had said that exact same thing. The pitchers that usally make it are closers and starters.

 

[daddies3angels]

Middle RP usually never make it and I saw somewhere today that had said that exact same thing. The pitchers that usally make it are closers and starters.

Thats a very good point. Take Marmol one game that he got crushed in his ERA has to be in low 1....if i manage NL i might want him to come in tight spot to K a hitter.

 

[DewsSox79]

Well Seattle has really only done the sabermetric thing for a few years, but they are only a game and a half out of the division lead despite sucking for the first month and a half.

Oakland won 87 games or more for 8 straight years. Won 5 division titles.

Don't confuse WS titles with not winning anything. All you can do is get there the best team rarely wins the WS.

how has the last 4 years been for the A's?

So since the Cubs were fucking amazing in 2008, it is ok that they got swept in the first round because the best teams dont usually win the WS? your a joke of a fan.

 

[poodski]

how has the last 4 years been for the A's?

So since the Cubs were fucking amazing in 2008, it is ok that they got swept in the first round because the best teams dont usually win the WS? your a joke of a fan.

So teams can't rebuild? Things adapt. Moneyball isn't obp and power now. It's speed and defense. It takes time to change a whole philosophy when you have no payroll.

Who said it was ok? Yeah I just cheered as they got swept. It was all I had ever hoped for and more.

Oh and surprise another insult. You know what they say when you have no argument, insult.

 

[DewsSox79]

So teams can't rebuild? Things adapt. Moneyball isn't obp and power now. It's speed and defense. It takes time to change a whole philosophy when you have no payroll.

Who said it was ok? Yeah I just cheered as they got swept. It was all I had ever hoped for and more.

Oh and surprise another insult. You know what they say when you have no argument, insult.

you are delusional, and cannot read. you blindly state that I dont have an arguement, but there is a ton of archives that show that is all I do. I can post all those if you want in the bar somewhere if you would like.

You said that the best teams dont win the WS anyway so you just gotta get there. So is that a "cop out" or is it one of those things that if you keep telling yourself that it makes the pain of not winning a world series in 100 plus years (especially 2008) more tolerable?

Team X has the best record in baseball, but team X loses in the first round, clearly the best team in the season but lose right away....is that ok with you because the "best team rarely wins the WS" ?

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

the best team doesnt always win the series, but that doesnt mean it is in any way a rare occurence...in baseball because it is low scoring,dependent on very variable hitting and pitching(much more so hitting wise imo)...you see more variety and parity in games...even in the playoffs(this is where pitching comes huge because if you have an ace and some key guys who can pitch 7-8 innings and allow around 2-3 runs...you're in good shape defensively and that can be the biggest difference...when your bats are cold...pitching can help

so i'd say in baseball the best teams wins it all less often than other 6/7 game series sports like basketball and hockey