Starlin Castro discussion thread

CODE_BLUE56 · Jun 13, 2012

Rice Cube said:
You usually project WAR at the beginning of the season based on past performance and what you think his future performance will be as affected by age and decline. I'm not a statistician nor am I an expert on this stuff, but if Soriano's got 1+ WAR right now, it doesn't mean he'll be a 3 WAR player at the end of the season, mostly because his peripherals are expected to regress to the mean.

it's good to use at the beginning or the end...in the middle of the season there are too many factors that get in the way...and too much fluctuation

soriano has a 1.8 WAR right now, has a zips R of 1.2, and a zips U of 2.9

the idea is that he's projected around 3 based on his season and how it can be predicted...of course as you said...he is expected to regress

Rice Cube · Jun 13, 2012

I think every now and then they release rest-of-season projections based on how they expect a player to regress to league average rates etc.

Rice Cube · Jun 13, 2012

Baseball Video Highlights & Clips | DET@CHC: Castro makes a great diving stop - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia

Rice Cube · Jun 16, 2012

Sveum ponders day off for Castro - Chicago Cubs Blog - ESPN Chicago

I think he'll get a day off during the White Sox series if he continues to scuffle tomorrow.

waldo7239117 · Jun 18, 2012

Rory Sparrow said:
I find it odd that so much trade talk is revolving around Castro. He strikes out a lot and makes some errors in the field, but so did Shawon Dunston, and Castro is much more productive than Dunston ever was. Castro is a .300 hitter, Dunston was more of a .260 hitter. Not really relevant to anything, but Dunston had a season where he walked 8 times in 511 plate appearances. The Cubs gave Dunston several years to develop (he never did), and Dunston came up to the majors a couple years later than Castro.

I just think its scary that the Cubs would trade Castro. Reminds me of Jerry Krause getting rid of a young Elton Brand, because Krause thought he was so much smarter than everyone else that he could single-handedly rebuild the Bulls in one year.

This. Great post!

FirstTimer · Jun 18, 2012

Rory Sparrow said:
I find it odd that so much trade talk is revolving around Castro. He strikes out a lot and makes some errors in the field, but so did Shawon Dunston, and Castro is much more productive than Dunston ever was. Castro is a .300 hitter, Dunston was more of a .260 hitter. Not really relevant to anything, but Dunston had a season where he walked 8 times in 511 plate appearances. The Cubs gave Dunston several years to develop (he never did), and Dunston came up to the majors a couple years later than Castro.

I just think its scary that the Cubs would trade Castro. Reminds me of Jerry Krause getting rid of a young Elton Brand, because Krause thought he was so much smarter than everyone else that he could single-handedly rebuild the Bulls in one year.

I agree trading Castro would be questionable but if you could get a team to pony up 2-3 top spects for him for down the road then I think the mindset would be a bit different than Krause's mindset.

Rice Cube · Jun 18, 2012

I don't think they would trade Castro unless they got at least Castro-potential back. I also think that given how crappy SS is around the majors that teams might be willing to overlook the points Rory pointed out and roll the dice if the Cubs were serious about trading him.

The trade talk is just trying to test the waters, I doubt they try to trade Castro until he's nearing the end of his club control...at which point he'd still only be 27 and still be worth a lot in trade. But it never hurts to see what fish might bite.

FirstTimer · Jun 18, 2012

Rory Sparrow said:
But if the Cubs are willing to unload their 23 year old (?) star, wouldn't that make other teams leery of acquiring Castro? Especially when Castro had that night club incident in the off-season?

Jerry Krause: A team will never win a title with Elton Brand at PF!

-moments later-

Jerry Krause: (on phone) Anyone interested in trading for Elton Brand?

I see the point if the Cubs were making declarations as such in the above but if the Cubs are seeing Castro as a valuable commodity that can be traded fro 2-3 more pieces to a team that will be competing in 5 years they'd at least have to look at it. Plus, I feel there is a large difference in what Krause did as far as openly shopping Brand and Theo not immediately laughing and hanging up with phone when/if Castro's name comes up in trade talks.

I just think the overall approaches are likely different.