Starlin Castro discussion thread

Jntg4

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Starlin Castro

35th in MLB in WAR

Where will he rank next year?

I think he will be Top 30
 
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Jntg4

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Dude WAR is so good that it is almost as good as FIP :fap:

And I don't want to know how good he will be, I want to know where he will rank in WAR.
 

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Dude WAR is so good that it is almost as good as FIP :fap:

And I don't want to know how good he will be, I want to know where he will rank in WAR.

You can make a rough correlation between the WAR he accumulated over the season and how "good" he is. Since WAR is a rate stat, asking how much WAR he has accumulated pre-ASG (only a third of the season done) won't tell you anything except for how good he is now. It is entirely possible he could suck ass for the rest of the year and accrue negative WAR. It doesn't mean he will, but that possibility does exist.

I think you worry about his various peripherals (like the fact that he CAN'T TAKE A FUCKING WALK) and fielding (improving) right now and then figure out WAR when the season is over.
 

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I'm going to merge this with the Starlin Castro error thread :lol:

Talking about Starlin Castro right now isn't a fail, but I don't think we should be using WAR right now, though it is impressive that he's amassed about 2 WAR already.
 

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I'm going to merge this with the Starlin Castro error thread :lol:

Talking about Starlin Castro right now isn't a fail, but I don't think we should be using WAR right now, though it is impressive that he's amassed about 2 WAR already.

You weren't here for the big sabermetric war, use of WAR was half-joking. Goes back deep into the CO era.
 

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It is eerie how consistent Castro's BABIP rate has been in his career (.346,.344, .345). Basically his strikeouts are way up and his walks are way down. His out of strikezone swings are up about 8% and as a result the contact rate on those pitches is down. He is holding steady with the amount of contact he makes in the zone. So basically the numbers back up what we are seeing with our eyes that Castro is swinging at too many bad pitches out of the strikezone.

On the plus side though, Castro's LD% and HR/FB are up at their highest rates of his career. The power would probably be showing more in the other stats if he was more selective at the plate.
 

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So let's take a look at his stats.

Starlin Castro Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

You know he can hit for contact pretty well. The power isn't there yet, but he does get his share of doubles and triples. He's also 20-steals fast.

He's also walking 2% of the time he has a plate appearance. TWO. PERCENT. They have no fear of throwing him strikes because they know that if he puts the ball in play he's getting himself out about 70% of the time and they'll risk it. He doesn't have the power to consistently slam the ball over the wall. There's no incentive to pitch around him, and they also know he's aggressive which is why he looks so terrible on swinging strikes. His saving grace is his batting average and that fluctuates wildly. Right now he's getting on base at a rate less than Tony Campana and Darwin Barney, and that's pretty fucking sad. On the plus side he's slugging better than the other two (I won't even get into wOBA because I know some people will shit themselves) but even with his decent batting average he's still a below average offensive player.

That is okay, because SS is the most valuable position on the field so you can accept slightly below average there, but he also seems to have improved on defense. Motions look more fluid. Throws with more confidence. Still has tons of range and athleticism. I don't trust defensive metrics any further than I can throw a baseball so I don't think the dWAR tells you anything, but my lying eyes tell me he's got the drive to become at least a solid defender.
 

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He definitely teases you with what can do with a glove and his arm. He has made more than a few spectuclar plays. The thing that is nice to see is those routine plays starting to look routine with Castro. He seems to be taken a little extra time with those, which he can do with his arm strength. And I am with you, Rice, on defensive metrics.
 

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So let's take a look at his stats.

Starlin Castro Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

You know he can hit for contact pretty well. The power isn't there yet, but he does get his share of doubles and triples. He's also 20-steals fast.

He's also walking 2% of the time he has a plate appearance. TWO. PERCENT. They have no fear of throwing him strikes because they know that if he puts the ball in play he's getting himself out about 70% of the time and they'll risk it. He doesn't have the power to consistently slam the ball over the wall. There's no incentive to pitch around him, and they also know he's aggressive which is why he looks so terrible on swinging strikes. His saving grace is his batting average and that fluctuates wildly. Right now he's getting on base at a rate less than Tony Campana and Darwin Barney, and that's pretty fucking sad. On the plus side he's slugging better than the other two (I won't even get into wOBA because I know some people will shit themselves) but even with his decent batting average he's still a below average offensive player.

That is okay, because SS is the most valuable position on the field so you can accept slightly below average there, but he also seems to have improved on defense. Motions look more fluid. Throws with more confidence. Still has tons of range and athleticism. I don't trust defensive metrics any further than I can throw a baseball so I don't think the dWAR tells you anything, but my lying eyes tell me he's got the drive to become at least a solid defender.

Just slightly below average offensively though, if you believe in stats like wRC+
 

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There's something to be said about tempering one's expectations because of his age though. Castro is hovering around average depending on whether you use OPS+ or not. At his age, at MLB, that's pretty impressive. He could be better, but a lot of MLB guys are worse.
 

CODE_BLUE56

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at this point,way too early to use WAR lol

i think soriano is projected to have a WAR or around 3...doubt that'll happen

castro kind of plays his age(sproradic defense...not good with getting on base and discipline,etc.)..which isn't that bad, except that he's been in the league a little while and you'd expect that he plays like he reflects some of that experience

but certainly, i think his offensive game is improving,especially regarding power
 

Rice Cube

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at this point,way too early to use WAR lol

i think soriano is projected to have a WAR or around 3...doubt that'll happen

castro kind of plays his age(sproradic defense...not good with getting on base and discipline,etc.)..which isn't that bad, except that he's been in the league a little while and you'd expect that he plays like he reflects some of that experience

but certainly, i think his offensive game is improving,especially regarding power

You usually project WAR at the beginning of the season based on past performance and what you think his future performance will be as affected by age and decline. I'm not a statistician nor am I an expert on this stuff, but if Soriano's got 1+ WAR right now, it doesn't mean he'll be a 3 WAR player at the end of the season, mostly because his peripherals are expected to regress to the mean.
 

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