Stock Market/Investing

[knoxville7]

Just to be clear, I am talking about buying into Bond funds.

Bond funds will describe their type of holdings and objectives.

Most Bond funds are just holding diversified debt that pays back small but stable percentages.

I hate to bring it up but those mortgage bonds that went bust in 2008-2009 causing the recession... that remains a big bond holding in most funds.

So long as fuckwits don't hand a 250k+ mortgage to people making 30k a year and then stuff them into normal bonds, a mortgage bond is a pretty solid investment if you are looking for safe and stable, but low % returns.

Treasury bonds is another big one... kinda like the thought of "Mortgage, who doesn't pay their mortgage?" you have U.S. treasury bonds... which is a similar thought process.

I look at these as shorter term investments that serve as a safer option during market instability... I don't look for actual returns, I just want my capital to hold its value for 6-18 months, maybe give me a small return, but mostly protect my money until I am ready to put it back into the market.

When you get towards retirement.... ages 55+ then I'd start looking at them as more standard investment where the returns I've banked over the years can sit, relatively safely, while still having the opportunity to grow a bit.... 3-6% isn't a ton of money when you start investing.... but it is non-trivial once you've amassed say 400k+ over a career of income/401k investment.

You've got Growth funds... risky stocks.... put your money in and ride it when you're young.

You've got Balances/Conservative funds.... still stocks, still risky, but not as much risk as Growth.

You've got Blended funds, these mix stock and bond investments.... I'd look at starting to use these and Bond funds later in life.

You've got Bond/Stable funds.... these mix together Bonds with other more stable assets.... use these for safety during market turmoil or to protect your ROI when you get closer to retirement.

It is your money, you get to decide where it goes, and just leaving it in whatever fund you select when you sign up is not how this works. You can and should leverage all the types of investment funds, and move your money where you want it to be when you want to move it.

got ya...whats the fee(s) and taxes on those bond funds look like?

 

[ijustposthere]

But... you literally can.

I pulled my money out to stable/bonds last year awaiting a drop, which came.

Then I bought in when the DOW was around 21-22k.

Now I am up 28%, I see another downturn coming and I pull out to safer funds and do it again.

This isn't some wildly difficult quant analysis I'm doing, nor do I need some special tricks or privileges... I put my money where I want it.

Executing these things takes button clicks on a website, that's it.

So right now if you want to do what I did... login to your 401k provider, go to your investments, choose to do a full rebalance, and choose to move your money to bonds or "stable" funds, then switch your contributions to go to the same % as your new funds.

When the market turns around later, you go in and do the opposite.... reallocate to your favorite stock/growth funds and send contributions to those funds as well.

Would you allow people to tell you this when you buy something on sale?

"Don't try to time the bread market, just buy it today."

"Don't try to time the TV market, just buy it today."

"Don't try to time the Steam market, just buy it today."

No one listens to this kind of advice in any other circumstance lol, but your money... your fucking retirement fund.... oh don't touch that, don't try to time the market, it is way too complicated, just buy regularly so the professionals can make money timing the market.

Sorry for the rant, but "Don't time the market" is complete and utter nonsense that people need to stop believing in as a general principal.

Might as well start telling people "Don't try to time the weather, just do whatever you have to do in the middle of a hurricane or blizzard or w/e, you'll never time it right"

Oh or I could wait for it to stop raining using very publicly available tools/data, and then go outside.

Not that I disagree with the premise, but you don't feel like you moved more into speculating? I'm assuming you have a buy in point, but who's to say it reaches that point? Maybe it stays stagnant and moves up. Maybe it hits your buy in, and you get back in, then it continues to freefall. Maybe it just shoots up again. I think we're all under agreement that the market is completely disjointed from reality, but hasn't it kind of been that way for all of trumps presidency? How much longer can the Fed help prop this up? It just feels like too many unknowns for me, and I'm not confident in myself to make the right decision in that regard. I'm aware I'm giving up the potential for big gains, but I also feel I'm insulating myself from a costly mistake as well. I have an account for those kind of moves where I'm more indifferent to a mistake.

 

[Ares]

Not that I disagree with the premise, but you don't feel like you moved more into speculating? I'm assuming you have a buy in point, but who's to say it reaches that point? Maybe it stays stagnant and moves up. Maybe it hits your buy in, and you get back in, then it continues to freefall. Maybe it just shoots up again. I think we're all under agreement that the market is completely disjointed from reality, but hasn't it kind of been that way for all of trumps presidency? How much longer can the Fed help prop this up? It just feels like too many unknowns for me, and I'm not confident in myself to make the right decision in that regard. I'm aware I'm giving up the potential for big gains, but I also feel I'm insulating myself from a costly mistake as well. I have an account for those kind of moves where I'm more indifferent to a mistake.

Isn't investing just speculating at various levels of risk tolerance?

Even if you just take your money, put it into one Growth fund at age 22 and don't touch it for 30 years.

Aren't you still speculating that the market will, on the whole, be higher in 30 years than it is now?

In general that is a safe speculation.

If you are not confident in your level of investing literacy and just want to speculate on a really long time horizon, taking the ups with the downs, that is a valid investing profile.

My point is purely... just because some fat hedge fund manager on CNBC says "Don't try to time the market" over and over and over, doesn't mean you should be scared, believe it, and think you aren't allowed to move your own 401k, IRA, or other investments into risk or safety based on your own judgement.

Point in proof... I had my money in safety going into 2020.

When the market tanked, I waited.... I couldn't exactly time the bottom, but when I saw signals indicating it was going on a run, I bought in when the DOW was around 22k and decided to exit back to safety when it was around 26.5k-27k.

I show a 28% Year-To-Date ROI, and I will keep that ROI now regardless of how fucked things get in the next 6-12 months.

This isn't some one-size-fits-all investing strategy I am trying to pitch; I am merely pointing out that if you have some investing literacy you can still "time the market" and the tools are there that allow you to do so.

The accepted norm everyone spouts of "Ya can't time the market!"... like it is some market principle engraved on Mt Rushmore and 100% true needs to be seriously re-examined.

People on TV say that, because they don't want more people "timing the market" and they have no desire to be held liable if you try to do it and fail.

It would be like hearing some NBA player on ESPN playing a game of HORSE say "Don't try this at home", then shooting from the 3 point line while balancing on one leg, and your conclusion being "Well henceforth I shall never attempt to shoot a basketball from the 3 point line"

And you and all other people who might shoot a basketball silently nod in agreement lol

 

[Ares]

got ya...whats the fee(s) and taxes on those bond funds look like?

Not sure off the top of my head... would need to pull up the funds on Fidelity's site and see what they say.

 

[knoxville7]

Not sure off the top of my head... would need to pull up the funds on Fidelity's site and see what they say.

copy that...I can look and see. I’ve got a fidelity account, just curious if you knew off the top of your head. I’d imagine in a Roth there’s no need to worry about taxes...so really just need to look up the fees

 

[Ares]

copy that...I can look and see. I’ve got a fidelity account, just curious if you knew off the top of your head. I’d imagine in a Roth there’s no need to worry about taxes...so really just need to look up the fees

In the context of moving to safety.

I don't think you'll find any combination of risky fund vs bond fund where moving from risk to bonds/stable would incur fees that could compete with the losses of a 15-30% downturn.

 

[knoxville7]

In the context of moving to safety.

I don't think you'll find any combination of risky fund vs bond fund where moving from risk to bonds/stable would incur fees that could compete with the losses of a 15-30% downturn.

haha that’s very true. I was more inquiring to weigh the cost/reward/risk of a bund fund vs. just holding cash

 

[Ares]

haha that’s very true. I was more inquiring to weigh the cost/reward/risk of a bund fund vs. just holding cash

I have this fantasy of calling Fidelity and demanding they move my holdings to cash and deliver it to my house lol.

 

[Burque]

Not trying to attack you, but what is with the phobia over "Timing the market"?

I hear it all the time.

Is it because CNBC and other financial analysts dismiss the idea out of hand?

If you try to perfectly time the market and buy the perfect stocks at the lowest price, and then sell the perfect stocks at their highest price for some crazy like 80%+ ROI, yeah it is a foolhardy errand.

But if you own a stock and it is up 80% and you sell, didn't you "time the market"?

If you see the market is down and some stock is attractive and you buy it at a 52 week low and then it rises over the following 52 weeks, didn't you "time the market"?

Lastly, if you look at a much higher level and a more broad view and you say "Ok the DOW is at 27k, I am going to take my returns, and I won't buy back in until the DOW drops to a range I find attractive, then I will buy back into my riskier stock funds/ETFs"....is that not effectively "timing the market"

Isn't literally every single person with money in the market trying to "time the market"?

Are there any people who buy in totally randomly and sell totally randomly? Or do people tend to buy regularly/opportunistically and sell high/opportunistically?

"You can't time the market" should read "You and literally every investor in the world can and does time the market or they lose money"

I understand that corner case of market timing that can be foolhardy, but in general I don't see why people are so hesitant to pull their money to safety when the market gets overly high, and put it back in when the market returns to an upswing.

It really isn't that radical.... it is literally what all investors do in order to make ROI.

There is a prevalent theory that you cannot beat the market. You just have to be in the market. That over time the market will flatten all the curves and give you a tidy profit that beats inflation.

It is slung far and wide by the Edward Jonses and Vanguards of the world so they can rationalize charging you basis points to passively manage your money. It is also a way for them to explain away how they just lost a **** ton of your money when the market crashes, and how to reassure you that it will all come back, that you just have to ride it out. That timing the market is a bad idea because people that try to beat the market ultimately always fail. The question that I always have for these people is this "If you know it's going to come back, why didn't you know it was going to go down and do something to protect my money?"

Where people are stupid is they want to pull their money out AFTER they have lost a fuckton in a crash. When people are reactive to the market they always time it backwards and that is a really easy way to lose a lot of money trying to time the market. I am sure you have heard someone talking about some company that is sky rocketing and there stock is SOOO hot, and then they get in and it peaks and starts coming back to earth and then it sinks below their point of entry, and they think they can hang on and then it gets so low that it is scaring them that they might go out of business, so they sell it and tuck their tale and say trying to time the market is for fools.

It is a bullshit theory for the most part.

While I do agree that keeping some long term money in target funds isn't always a bad thing, especially if you have zero idea or feelings about the market. Just riding towards your target date isn't the worst option. knowing that it is going to trend you towards safer and safer investments as you get closer and closer to retirement does make sense for someone that has no interest in trying to manage that themselves. Over time they will do ok, they just need to avoid a crash right before they retire.

That being said, for anyone else there is nothing wrong with doing some market timing, trying to take advantage of good buying and selling opportunities.

 

[MDB111™]

I think your last sentence is correct....

I understand one cannot always time the market, but the notion common investors shouldn't even attempt it is utter nonsense.

It is like saying "Don't try to drink from the water fountain, just put your face in the general vicinity and hold the button down and hope some of the water manages to splash into your mouth."

Isn't the point of a water fountain, so the user can drink water?

"Well yeah but you don't have the skill level to time the water hitting your mouth."

People really fall for this?

Now I want to know how to volume water cost dip my face in a fountain. If i dip it in nice increments once a month, I might get full.

 

[Ares]

Now I want to know how to volume water cost dip my face in a fountain. If i dip it in nice increments once a month, I might get full.

Don't try to time the water.

Are you f***ing insane?

 

[ijustposthere]

I'm terrible at timing the weather honestly. I have a pair of shoes that I literally cannot get wet because it soaks through, and every time I wear them, no matter what, it rains.

 

[Ares]

I'm terrible at timing the weather honestly. I have a pair of shoes that I literally cannot get wet because it soaks through, and every time I wear them, no matter what, it rains.

So listen.

I was looking at Weather.com and the radar looked like incoming rain.

I went outside and it looked like rain was coming.

So I went ahead and put my grill cover on.

Now it is thundering, so I am pretty sure rain is coming.

And sure enough it is raining, but my grill is protected because I put the cover on it.

 

[ijustposthere]

So listen.

I was looking at Weather.com and the radar looked like incoming rain.

I went outside and it looked like rain was coming.

So I went ahead and put my grill cover on.

Now it is thundering, so I am pretty sure rain is coming.

And sure enough it is raining, but my grill is protected because I put the cover on it.

I use weather.com all the time. I check it every single work day. Yet, some days there's not supposed to be rain, and it will rain just enough to soak through my work shoes. Just a few minutes is enough. I carry my boots and an extra pair of socks on me now. These shoes really suck. I can't even walk on wet ground, but I hate spending money on work shoes.

 

[ijustposthere]

Just to be clear, I am talking about buying into Bond funds.

Bond funds will describe their type of holdings and objectives.

Most Bond funds are just holding diversified debt that pays back small but stable percentages.

I hate to bring it up but those mortgage bonds that went bust in 2008-2009 causing the recession... that remains a big bond holding in most funds.

So long as fuckwits don't hand a 250k+ mortgage to people making 30k a year and then stuff them into normal bonds, a mortgage bond is a pretty solid investment if you are looking for safe and stable, but low % returns.

Treasury bonds is another big one... kinda like the thought of "Mortgage, who doesn't pay their mortgage?" you have U.S. treasury bonds... which is a similar thought process.

I look at these as shorter term investments that serve as a safer option during market instability... I don't look for actual returns, I just want my capital to hold its value for 6-18 months, maybe give me a small return, but mostly protect my money until I am ready to put it back into the market.

When you get towards retirement.... ages 55+ then I'd start looking at them as more standard investment where the returns I've banked over the years can sit, relatively safely, while still having the opportunity to grow a bit.... 3-6% isn't a ton of money when you start investing.... but it is non-trivial once you've amassed say 400k+ over a career of income/401k investment.

You've got Growth funds... risky stocks.... put your money in and ride it when you're young.

You've got Balances/Conservative funds.... still stocks, still risky, but not as much risk as Growth.

You've got Blended funds, these mix stock and bond investments.... I'd look at starting to use these and Bond funds later in life.

You've got Bond/Stable funds.... these mix together Bonds with other more stable assets.... use these for safety during market turmoil or to protect your ROI when you get closer to retirement.

It is your money, you get to decide where it goes, and just leaving it in whatever fund you select when you sign up is not how this works. You can and should leverage all the types of investment funds, and move your money where you want it to be when you want to move it.

I actually am doing some of this in one of my investment accounts. How many accounts do you have? I got my 401K, a Roth, a HSA, a spec account on Robinhood, and an individual account aimed more towards retirement. In one of my accounts, I am throwing money in mortgage bonds, as well as other bonds, at the moment waiting to invest in my selected stocks when the next crash comes. I won't sell off on those stocks though because I just happened to get in at the current low in March. I'm currently up about 87% in this account, after the last two down days.

My HSA is very conservative, mostly TIPs and other bonds, with a 30% stake in the S&P, my Roth is very aggressive but all dividend stocks/REITs. Robinhood is where I actively try to buy and sell, but I haven't found anything since my last buy/sell of Nikola. There I'm just looking at when Boeing falls under $150 again, and I'm also putting $20 a week towards Canopy Growth. Also keeping my eye open for the next quick buck there.

 

[MDB111™]

So listen.

I was looking at Weather.com and the radar looked like incoming rain.

I went outside and it looked like rain was coming.

So I went ahead and put my grill cover on.

Now it is thundering, so I am pretty sure rain is coming.

And sure enough it is raining, but my grill is protected because I put the cover on it.

Sounds like you identified a strong pattern and reacted accordingly. Timing is everything err, I mean Don't Try and Time the Rain!

 

[MDB111™]

I actually am doing some of this in one of my investment accounts. How many accounts do you have? I got my 401K, a Roth, a HSA, a spec account on Robinhood, and an individual account aimed more towards retirement. In one of my accounts, I am throwing money in mortgage bonds, as well as other bonds, at the moment waiting to invest in my selected stocks when the next crash comes. I won't sell off on those stocks though because I just happened to get in at the current low in March. I'm currently up about 87% in this account, after the last two down days.

My HSA is very conservative, mostly TIPs and other bonds, with a 30% stake in the S&P, my Roth is very aggressive but all dividend stocks/REITs. Robinhood is where I actively try to buy and sell, but I haven't found anything since my last buy/sell of Nikola. There I'm just looking at when Boeing falls under $150 again, and I'm also putting $20 a week towards Canopy Growth. Also keeping my eye open for the next quick buck there.

Canopy has been consolidating nicely for 5 days. Look for a breakout. Could be good or bad. My guess is good though. Might be a $1.00 to $2.00 per share gain. I may swing trade it if it breaks above $16.25

 

[MDB111™]

WKHS went off today... again. Anybody in on it?

 

[ijustposthere]

WKHS went off today... again. Anybody in on it?

No, but I had considered it after nkla.

 

[MDB111™]

No, but I had considered it after nkla.

I snuck in yesterday morning pre-market and happened to look at my phone at 945am and smashed that close position button!