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Normal loss/profit day for me is $18,000-20,000
Stock Market/Investing
- Thread starter knoxville7
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Issue is there is no other place for the money to go. Real Estate is tanking, Euro/Asian investments are weak, Fed rates down to nothing
One thing to consider is the general optimism of Americans, who always look to the bright side opportunities. Been this way for 80 years. The market should be down 30% more right now, but as I always say: "The Market Wants to Run"
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I'm nowhere near confident enough to even try day trading.
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There's a lot of info out there but in short BUY THE DIPS. I like to use Think or Swim app. It's definitely not for everyone though. I'd consider myself more of a swing trader.
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get more creative with your $$ then. I would argue that other than US investments, consider looking into a Vietnam ETF or something like that. Vietnam is reaping the benefits of the US/China trade war, and is kinda where China was in the 90’s economically. China boomed in part due to US consumption of cheap goods, now it is seeming like Vietnam is at the early stages of the same thing. More and more businesses are shifting away from China and looking for cheap and reliable labor/supply chains. Even China is shifting their manufacturing to places like Vietnam, as China is hitting closer and closer economically to the US...Chinese wages rise due to this
Vietnam moving into 'post-Covid situation' with GDP expected to grow, strategist says
Andy Ho, CIO of VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity trust, discusses investment opportunities in Vietnam.
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haha I mean, a 2-3% drop isn’t all that wild. Now a week or so ago when it dropped 7%, like two days after I explained why selling made sense at the time to ommy lol...that was explosion worthy
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I only did it because I thought it was going to be over 1000 point drop. Premature explosion.
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This stock market is totally detached from reality, it will crash hard.
I got a 28% return YTD and pulled my 401k out to bonds/stable value.
Count me back in after the 2nd crash.
I got a 28% return YTD and pulled my 401k out to bonds/stable value.
Count me back in after the 2nd crash.
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I'm not trying to time anything. I just pulled back on my contributions, and I'm putting cash to the side again. My 401k is a target date fund so I'm just gonna ride the wave there.
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Not trying to attack you, but what is with the phobia over "Timing the market"?
I hear it all the time.
Is it because CNBC and other financial analysts dismiss the idea out of hand?
If you try to perfectly time the market and buy the perfect stocks at the lowest price, and then sell the perfect stocks at their highest price for some crazy like 80%+ ROI, yeah it is a foolhardy errand.
But if you own a stock and it is up 80% and you sell, didn't you "time the market"?
If you see the market is down and some stock is attractive and you buy it at a 52 week low and then it rises over the following 52 weeks, didn't you "time the market"?
Lastly, if you look at a much higher level and a more broad view and you say "Ok the DOW is at 27k, I am going to take my returns, and I won't buy back in until the DOW drops to a range I find attractive, then I will buy back into my riskier stock funds/ETFs"....is that not effectively "timing the market"
Isn't literally every single person with money in the market trying to "time the market"?
Are there any people who buy in totally randomly and sell totally randomly? Or do people tend to buy regularly/opportunistically and sell high/opportunistically?
"You can't time the market" should read "You and literally every investor in the world can and does time the market or they lose money"
I understand that corner case of market timing that can be foolhardy, but in general I don't see why people are so hesitant to pull their money to safety when the market gets overly high, and put it back in when the market returns to an upswing.
It really isn't that radical.... it is literally what all investors do in order to make ROI.
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People do buy in monthly increments to Dollar Cost Average into the market on a position. That is not really "timing" the market.
I think "timing" the market refers to getting your money in. If you weren't in the market and had 20k to theow at it, but resisted due to high prices, someone could use that term on you. They say " don't try and time the market, just get your money in.
So that would be a case where that phrase would work.
But...
The smartests investors literally time the market. So maybe the phrase if just a condescending term for market newbs???
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I mean, for individual stocks and such, yeah, maybe look for values and whatnot. I'm still looking for buys and all that, but I'm not going to try and do that with my 401k was all I was saying. Generally I just pull back on my contributions when it feels too high, and up my contributions when it starts to crash, but I don't play with the ratio. I just let the target fund do what it does.
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But... you literally can.
I pulled my money out to stable/bonds last year awaiting a drop, which came.
Then I bought in when the DOW was around 21-22k.
Now I am up 28%, I see another downturn coming and I pull out to safer funds and do it again.
This isn't some wildly difficult quant analysis I'm doing, nor do I need some special tricks or privileges... I put my money where I want it.
Executing these things takes button clicks on a website, that's it.
So right now if you want to do what I did... login to your 401k provider, go to your investments, choose to do a full rebalance, and choose to move your money to bonds or "stable" funds, then switch your contributions to go to the same % as your new funds.
When the market turns around later, you go in and do the opposite.... reallocate to your favorite stock/growth funds and send contributions to those funds as well.
Would you allow people to tell you this when you buy something on sale?
"Don't try to time the bread market, just buy it today."
"Don't try to time the TV market, just buy it today."
"Don't try to time the Steam market, just buy it today."
No one listens to this kind of advice in any other circumstance lol, but your money... your fucking retirement fund.... oh don't touch that, don't try to time the market, it is way too complicated, just buy regularly so the professionals can make money timing the market.
Sorry for the rant, but "Don't time the market" is complete and utter nonsense that people need to stop believing in as a general principal.
Might as well start telling people "Don't try to time the weather, just do whatever you have to do in the middle of a hurricane or blizzard or w/e, you'll never time it right"
Oh or I could wait for it to stop raining using very publicly available tools/data, and then go outside.
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I think your last sentence is correct....
I understand one cannot always time the market, but the notion common investors shouldn't even attempt it is utter nonsense.
It is like saying "Don't try to drink from the water fountain, just put your face in the general vicinity and hold the button down and hope some of the water manages to splash into your mouth."
Isn't the point of a water fountain, so the user can drink water?
"Well yeah but you don't have the skill level to time the water hitting your mouth."
People really fall for this?
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im with you on what you’re saying. I do want to get clarification on one thing, though. Are you buying/selling in an “all in/out” fashion? Or are you tapering in/out?
I think it’s much safer to gradually buy/sell positions. That way if you’re wrong on your timing, you’re not totally missing out. Like, if you sell and it keeps going up and never drops back under where you sold...you’re still making profits at least.
but, I certainly agree with your overall point of we are all trying to time the market in reality. And that even if you sell something and it keeps going up, as long as you sold for a profit...you timed the market...just not to perfection. Timing to perfection is impossible, but timing still possible.
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You could do it in either fashion.
But for me I pulled it all in a rebalance, and put it all back in.
I think if you are a novice, this is probably the safest method if you see major signals.
If you want to be more judicial, you could do a longer term, staged modification of your positions.
Change contributions like @ijustposthere did.... perhaps scaling them back month over month.
Do incremental rebalances.... take some % out, leaving some % in every 2-4 weeks.
For simplicity sake I've not leveraged that capability.
Also I think it is more of a relevant toolset when you are buying and selling your own investments in something more like an IRA or even just an individual investment account.
I think the right place for a novice to begin is wholesale movement to safety when you see danger.
Once you've spent time watching and understanding the markets better, you can try to gain more value by staying in good markets longer and slowly withdrawing your money, and same on the upside.
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solid point. bonds are something I need to learn more about. I get the basics, but have little experience with them. What sort of bonds do you like to get into? I’ve gathered you prefer the safer bonds it seems
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Just to be clear, I am talking about buying into Bond funds.
Bond funds will describe their type of holdings and objectives.
Most Bond funds are just holding diversified debt that pays back small but stable percentages.
I hate to bring it up but those mortgage bonds that went bust in 2008-2009 causing the recession... that remains a big bond holding in most funds.
So long as fuckwits don't hand a 250k+ mortgage to people making 30k a year and then stuff them into normal bonds, a mortgage bond is a pretty solid investment if you are looking for safe and stable, but low % returns.
Treasury bonds is another big one... kinda like the thought of "Mortgage, who doesn't pay their mortgage?" you have U.S. treasury bonds... which is a similar thought process.
I look at these as shorter term investments that serve as a safer option during market instability... I don't look for actual returns, I just want my capital to hold its value for 6-18 months, maybe give me a small return, but mostly protect my money until I am ready to put it back into the market.
When you get towards retirement.... ages 55+ then I'd start looking at them as more standard investment where the returns I've banked over the years can sit, relatively safely, while still having the opportunity to grow a bit.... 3-6% isn't a ton of money when you start investing.... but it is non-trivial once you've amassed say 400k+ over a career of income/401k investment.
You've got Growth funds... risky stocks.... put your money in and ride it when you're young.
You've got Balances/Conservative funds.... still stocks, still risky, but not as much risk as Growth.
You've got Blended funds, these mix stock and bond investments.... I'd look at starting to use these and Bond funds later in life.
You've got Bond/Stable funds.... these mix together Bonds with other more stable assets.... use these for safety during market turmoil or to protect your ROI when you get closer to retirement.
It is your money, you get to decide where it goes, and just leaving it in whatever fund you select when you sign up is not how this works. You can and should leverage all the types of investment funds, and move your money where you want it to be when you want to move it.
