Tanaka will be posted

[CSF77]

Yep. Saying they will not get out bid is pretty much that. That doesn't mean that the highest bid will win though.

What matters is to not let him go at under value due to penny pinching.

If this was 2 years ago I would have thought why? The team was shedding contract and the next wave was far away.

Right now it makes sense. Baez in AAA. Bryant on the fast pace and winning the MVP in the fall league. Almora holding his own in the same league as the youngest player.

Over all the hitting prospects look pretty good and are looking to start coming up this year.

Shoot I would go 7 at 140 mil. Start him at 16 mil and scale him up so he is at Ace pay when he hits 28. Sori will be off the books and they have not added any contract.

After that I would trade the Yanks Shark for Gardner and a prospect (pitching). This would end up being a better scenerio for the yanks. Shark would give them 200 IP at a fraction of the cost and they can extend him after they get some contract out.

Cubs get a legit lead off. Him and Almora can figure out CF/LF later and they become a decent 1-2 punch.

I believe this is a solid direction to go.

 

[Boobaby1]

Yep. Saying they will not get out bid is pretty much that. That doesn't mean that the highest bid will win though.

What matters is to not let him go at under value due to penny pinching.

If this was 2 years ago I would have thought why? The team was shedding contract and the next wave was far away.

Right now it makes sense. Baez in AAA. Bryant on the fast pace and winning the MVP in the fall league. Almora holding his own in the same league as the youngest player.

Over all the hitting prospects look pretty good and are looking to start coming up this year.

Shoot I would go 7 at 140 mil. Start him at 16 mil and scale him up so he is at Ace pay when he hits 28. Sori will be off the books and they have not added any contract.

After that I would trade the Yanks Shark for Gardner and a prospect (pitching). This would end up being a better scenerio for the yanks. Shark would give them 200 IP at a fraction of the cost and they can extend him after they get some contract out.

Cubs get a legit lead off. Him and Almora can figure out CF/LF later and they become a decent 1-2 punch.

I believe this is a solid direction to go.

And with the Cubs, he would take a backseat to no one including Samardzija. That is something he would have to do with every other team supposedly posting. Let him be the star of the show. I am cool with whatever it takes to sign him.

As far as Shark, I am not sure if the Cubs were able to sign Tanaka that they wouldn't extend him and Wood. Of course, they don't have to make a move on either one at this point, however, Wood could probably be had at a relatively low salary, and having those three at the top of the rotation wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Couple that with cheapies like a combo of Johnson, Edwards, Hendricks, and an outside shot of Viscaino, and you have a relatively inexpensive rotation by todays standards for years to come.

And payroll gets even better if Baez and Bryant make it up sometime in the next year or so. You could see an explosive team with a payroll sitting at around 90-100 million per year. That's enticing if you ask me. Not so much the low payroll part as much as the flexibility to add a key piece.

If they happen to somehow ink Tanaka, I would assume that they keep Shark until the deadline and see how these three perform together. If they do well, I think they will sign all of them for the long term unless they are completely blown out of the water by some team as far as players and/or prospects.

 

[beckdawg]

Are you going to listen to the evaluators, or have trust in your beloved front office? I happen to choose the latter because the evaluators aren't going to help the Cubs win in any capacity.

In general? No. People make decisions that aren't logical but instead based on pressures of the job. Some GM's will be in the position where they are trying to keep their job. I'm not saying that is the case with the cubs front office but it's possible they feel the ticket sales drop and get pressured to make a move that may or may not be in the best interest of the team. I really hope that's not the case they are in. And even if the cubs aren't in that situation, it doesn't mean other GM's aren't. If one of them wants to make an irrational decision to potentially save their job I don't agree with making an even more irrational decision just because you've previously said you were all in on someone.

I just believe you set a value on a player and don't cross that. When you do that you aren't assessing players you're gambling. Even if that means you miss that player that doesn't mean you're not doing your job or you're a bad GM. A good GM will find some other way to allocate those resources. For example, the yankees were wanting to clear payroll so they traded A.J. Burnett to the pirates for two low level prospects with the pirates paying him only $13 million. And for that deal they got 2 years and 7 WAR out of the deal. If you have open payroll space you can make those type of moves. A great example of this is Andre Either. The dodgers supposedly would be willing to give him up for peanuts if teams will take on his salary. If the cubs were to get the dodgers to eat $11 mil the cubs would be on the hook for 4 years at $15 mil per and a $2.5 mil buyout for a 5th year which that $11 mil would also cover. So, if the cubs could get Either for 2 low level prospects and have them eat $11 mil that in my eyes is a very good deal.

Tanaka obviously lines up with what they are trying to do. So maybe you put a higher value on him than someone like Garza just as an example. The value you set on someone can factor in stuff like Tanaka's age and your lack of top end arms. But, I just don't believe in artificially increasing that value because that's what it's going to take to "win." That's how you make "the big mistake." Mistakes are part of the game. But, if you don't cross the line you put on values at least when you make your mistakes they are on your terms and not the terms the player wants to set.

Also, maybe that value for the cubs really is $23-25 mil/year. If that's what they truly believe he's worth then I'm fine with the decision making though I find it a bit difficult to believe that is really how they value him. I just don't want this to be a case where they are giving him that money just because they wanted to beat the other teams in the negotiations.

 

[CSF77]

The problem with shark is he will not budge on the no trade. Theo won't give that to him. Cash wise I believe that is not the hold up. Yanks I believe would give shark some control. At least a limited no trade.

I believe that they do not want to get locked into any player and are looking to flip players going forward. It is more to do with payroll flexability. As we saw with the last generation the Ricketts were locked into contract and I doubt they are going to start that cycle again.

Wood I would lock up his Arb years. I believe he is right now a #3. He has always had a solid WHIP and took the next step.

What I would do is put up a140 mil contract to Tanaka. If they sign then trade shark to the Yanks. That brings back Gardner who becomes the needed lead off going forward. After that I lock up Wood and resign Baker. This nets a solid rotation next year and puts Gardner/Castro/Rizzo at the top. Baez and Bryant later Lear. Hopefully Olt and Schierholtz as placeholders.

The team would look good in a year. That doesn't get into Viz bouncing back and potentially taking a rotation spot. Imagine Jackson rebounding and building up trade value with Viz in AAA starting. Then Viz taking over after Jackson is moved.

Well we can dream.

 

[Boobaby1]

In general? No. People make decisions that aren't logical but instead based on pressures of the job. Some GM's will be in the position where they are trying to keep their job. I'm not saying that is the case with the cubs front office but it's possible they feel the ticket sales drop and get pressured to make a move that may or may not be in the best interest of the team. I really hope that's not the case they are in. And even if the cubs aren't in that situation, it doesn't mean other GM's aren't. If one of them wants to make an irrational decision to potentially save their job I don't agree with making an even more irrational decision just because you've previously said you were all in on someone.

I just believe you set a value on a player and don't cross that. When you do that you aren't assessing players you're gambling. Even if that means you miss that player that doesn't mean you're not doing your job or you're a bad GM. A good GM will find some other way to allocate those resources. For example, the yankees were wanting to clear payroll so they traded A.J. Burnett to the pirates for two low level prospects with the pirates paying him only $13 million. And for that deal they got 2 years and 7 WAR out of the deal. If you have open payroll space you can make those type of moves. A great example of this is Andre Either. The dodgers supposedly would be willing to give him up for peanuts if teams will take on his salary. If the cubs were to get the dodgers to eat $11 mil the cubs would be on the hook for 4 years at $15 mil per and a $2.5 mil buyout for a 5th year which that $11 mil would also cover. So, if the cubs could get Either for 2 low level prospects and have them eat $11 mil that in my eyes is a very good deal.

Nothing wrong with a move like that and expect the Cubs to do it IF they feel that it is in the best interest 3-4 years down the line. Of Course, there will be other teams like Pittsburgh or Tampa that would pull the trigger on that in a heartbeat too because they are competing now.

Tanaka obviously lines up with what they are trying to do. So maybe you put a higher value on him than someone like Garza just as an example. The value you set on someone can factor in stuff like Tanaka's age and your lack of top end arms. But, I just don't believe in artificially increasing that value because that's what it's going to take to "win." That's how you make "the big mistake." Mistakes are part of the game. But, if you don't cross the line you put on values at least when you make your mistakes they are on your terms and not the terms the player wants to set.

Also, maybe that value for the cubs really is $23-25 mil/year. If that's what they truly believe he's worth then I'm fine with the decision making though I find it a bit difficult to believe that is really how they value him. I just don't want this to be a case where they are giving him that money just because they wanted to beat the other teams in the negotiations.

They value him (and we will soon see how much) for more reasons than you and I will ever know. They have the playbook and we don't. If they feel it is part business to boost sales, so be it because that is what Rickett's wants also. This is not just a GM, Vice President, Scouting Dept, or owner decision, it's all of them combined, so they must all be on the same page with how he fits into what they are doing. I tend to like that.

You know, it may be as simple as they overpay for Tanaka to maybe get overpaid for Shark. Like I said, there is a bounty of things we and the general public will probably never know. opcorn:

 

[Boobaby1]

The problem with shark is he will not budge on the no trade. Theo won't give that to him. Cash wise I believe that is not the hold up. Yanks I believe would give shark some control. At least a limited no trade.

I believe that they do not want to get locked into any player and are looking to flip players going forward. It is more to do with payroll flexability. As we saw with the last generation the Ricketts were locked into contract and I doubt they are going to start that cycle again.

Wood I would lock up his Arb years. I believe he is right now a #3. He has always had a solid WHIP and took the next step.

What I would do is put up a140 mil contract to Tanaka. If they sign then trade shark to the Yanks. That brings back Gardner who becomes the needed lead off going forward. After that I lock up Wood and resign Baker. This nets a solid rotation next year and puts Gardner/Castro/Rizzo at the top. Baez and Bryant later Lear. Hopefully Olt and Schierholtz as placeholders.

The team would look good in a year. That doesn't get into Viz bouncing back and potentially taking a rotation spot. Imagine Jackson rebounding and building up trade value with Viz in AAA starting. Then Viz taking over after Jackson is moved.

Well we can dream.

Not that he is a bad player but I am hoping Shark brings back a lot more than Gardner (who is also 30) and a prospect, and I would like to see the Cubs table setters come from in house between Alcantara and Almora. They are going to be cheap for a long time which will allow for bigger fish when they need them and won't cost you Shark in return now.

Locking up Tanaka and boosting Shark's trade value is very possible, and would net what the Cubs need now which is pitching. If the Cubs asked for a ridiculous price to Atlanta for Heyward or Upton, then they will want something pretty big or else they just won't trade him because they don't have to.

 

[SilenceS]

Well, whether we get Tanaka or not. I can say almost absolute certainly we are still going to suck. So, we got that going for us.

 

[CSF77]

Problem will be in run generation. Last year the pen was shaky but turned into a strong point. I believe it will even be better.

OBA: Castro and Valbuena

Castro needs to bounce back to his 2012 .323 OBA numbers. To be fair here he could score 100 runs this year leading off.

Valbuena: ran a 16.1% BB ratio last year. His work load would increase this year. He ended up with 331 AB's and I expect something closer to 400 in a platoon hitting #2. 1 hr/27.6 AB's.

Murphy .257/.350/.600 splits last year. It is passable.

Now if this was 2B production it would be better. 3B not so much. Even so they combined for 23 HR's in 480 AB's. 600 AB's you are looking at 30 HR's of production out of that platoon. That is even passable at 3B.

Rizzo I can not believe he will hit .233 2 years in a row. I can believe .260-.275 with 30 HR power. Again I believe this falls on the old hitting coach and scouting reports.

Now at this point I would want to push Olt into the 4 hole at 3B. Just roll with it and see if he responds. It can no be worse then Barney's production.

Then you have Schierholtz and Ruggiano in RF. I can see a 30 HR platoon here also. Ruggiano hit 18 HR's last year in a bigger ball park. In a platoon I could see 10-14 HR's in 200 AB's. Schierholtz has already proven he is good for 20 HR's in a platoon.

Lake becomes the 6 hitter. Just let him run and stuff. Bottom of the order spark plug with some RBI opportunities.

7 hitter would be Sweeney. Not a bad hitter. .278/.336/.385 career avg. last years SLG was .448 so some power. Decent #7 hitter stuff.

Castillo .274/.349/.397 Decent #8 hitter production.



It is not great but it could be better than expected.

They just have to move past Barney at 2B. He kills the line up.

 

[patg006]

Problem will be in run generation. Last year the pen was shaky but turned into a strong point. I believe it will even be better.

OBA: Castro and Valbuena

Castro needs to bounce back to his 2012 .323 OBA numbers. To be fair here he could score 100 runs this year leading off.

Valbuena: ran a 16.1% BB ratio last year. His work load would increase this year. He ended up with 331 AB's and I expect something closer to 400 in a platoon hitting #2. 1 hr/27.6 AB's.

Murphy .257/.350/.600 splits last year. It is passable.

Now if this was 2B production it would be better. 3B not so much. Even so they combined for 23 HR's in 480 AB's. 600 AB's you are looking at 30 HR's of production out of that platoon. That is even passable at 3B.

Rizzo I can not believe he will hit .233 2 years in a row. I can believe .260-.275 with 30 HR power. Again I believe this falls on the old hitting coach and scouting reports.

Now at this point I would want to push Olt into the 4 hole at 3B. Just roll with it and see if he responds. It can no be worse then Barney's production.

Then you have Schierholtz and Ruggiano in RF. I can see a 30 HR platoon here also. Ruggiano hit 18 HR's last year in a bigger ball park. In a platoon I could see 10-14 HR's in 200 AB's. Schierholtz has already proven he is good for 20 HR's in a platoon.

Lake becomes the 6 hitter. Just let him run and stuff. Bottom of the order spark plug with some RBI opportunities.

7 hitter would be Sweeney. Not a bad hitter. .278/.336/.385 career avg. last years SLG was .448 so some power. Decent #7 hitter stuff.

Castillo .274/.349/.397 Decent #8 hitter production.



It is not great but it could be better than expected.

They just have to move past Barney at 2B. He kills the line up.

This offense is punchless, gutless, and has low levels of talent.

You can stare at a painting of a turd and call it art, but it doesn't change the fact its still a turd.......

But don't worry, prospects will save us like they do EVERY SINGLE TEAM.

 

[CSF77]

They are not going to dump cash into the team. The only hope as a Cubs fan that is available is if Baez, Almora and Bryant are good. Not every one will make it but they are flooding the system with depth. Some will make some will not.


Sadly that is what we are stuck with. Honestly I don't care if it is a self grown team or a rent-a-center team. As long as they put out a winning product I can care less on the price tag each player costs.

 

[beckdawg]

They are not going to dump cash into the team. The only hope as a Cubs fan that is available is if Baez, Almora and Bryant are good. Not every one will make it but they are flooding the system with depth. Some will make some will not.

I don't know that there is really a choice in the matter. If you look at the playoff teams last year Cleveland is the only team without a real star or multiple stars carrying their team. Kipnis was the best with 4.5 WAR and no one else over 3.7. WAR. Even Oakland had Donaldson as a 7.7 and Pitt had McCutch who was an 8+ WAR player. Let's be real here, who do the cubs have that even has the potential to be a 5 WAR player? Castro even in his best years was a 3.2ish WAR player. If you double Rizzo's 2012 year to make it a full season that's 3.4 WAR. Shark in 2012 was a 3 WAR player. They all can be decent players on a playoff team but they aren't going to carry one. They need probably 2 premium hitters and probably a premium pitcher before they are keep up with the likes of the Sox or Cards.

Sure, you can add players like Cano but how long is he really going to be a 5+ WAR player? 3 years maybe? The cubs would still need a second premium bat and a premium pitcher. I'm not saying those players don't have value but you got to have more around than the cubs do at the moment for them to matter. If Baez turns into the superstar he looks like then talking about Cano types starts to make sense. The simple facts are this ownership group isn't going to shell out $50 mil/year to get two players like say Cano and Ellsbury at the current time in a single season. So if that's the reality they have to develop or trade for at least one and preferably 2.

 

[CSF77]

Potentially they have Baez and Bryant. Both look like 40 HR power. Add that to Rizzo and that is decent.

With depth they have Olt, Soler, Vogelbach All 3 project as 3-5 hitters and are good fall back option.

F/A options should be explored if said talent fails and they do not have a potential close.

They have been using F/A but no heavy investments. I wouldn't expect more than a 3/15 deal on a F/A bat. SP I believe they will spend on. Developing pitching is more of a crack shoot

 

[SilenceS]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majo...anking-the-top-10-teams-for-the-japanese-ace/

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majo...anking-the-top-10-teams-for-the-japanese-ace/

LA dodgers really don't make sense to me. Assuming he gets $20 mil/year the dodgers would be giving 3 starters $75+ mil plus($25 Grienke, $30+ for Kershaw and $20). They also have Ryu thru 2018 as well. So that gives them 4 starters with Billingsly, Beckett and Haren all as short term options for this year. That's a hell of a lot of pitching. They also have Zach Lee who profiles as a middle of the rotation starter. While they could try and trade some of these guys it just doesn't feel like they have the need at all. It'd be a case of spending money just to spend it.

The Yanks also really don't make sense to me. They've clearly tried to make this the year they got under the luxury tax. If they sign Tanaka there's basically 0 chance they get under for the next 3 years. I'm pretty sure that even holds true if A-rod is suspended year long. People can, and have, said they don't really care but if that's the case why did they even try to get under? Burnett and Russell Martin were cast offs in the cost cutting and they sure helped the Pirates last year.

I don't get the tigers at all. They gave away Fister for basically peanuts to have money to re-sign some of their guys. Now they are going to dump $20 mil into Tanaka?

I really think it's the cubs and maybe 1-2 other teams. That's probably the M's and maybe someone like the the Rangers or Jays. It feels like a lot of the reports are just there to have something to write about rather than having any inside info. Really when you logically think about it teams like the Tigers and Dodgers don't make sense.

 

[Boobaby1]

LA dodgers really don't make sense to me. Assuming he gets $20 mil/year the dodgers would be giving 3 starters $75+ mil plus($25 Grienke, $30+ for Kershaw and $20). They also have Ryu thru 2018 as well. So that gives them 4 starters with Billingsly, Beckett and Haren all as short term options for this year. That's a hell of a lot of pitching. They also have Zach Lee who profiles as a middle of the rotation starter. While they could try and trade some of these guys it just doesn't feel like they have the need at all. It'd be a case of spending money just to spend it.

The Yanks also really don't make sense to me. They've clearly tried to make this the year they got under the luxury tax. If they sign Tanaka there's basically 0 chance they get under for the next 3 years. I'm pretty sure that even holds true if A-rod is suspended year long. People can, and have, said they don't really care but if that's the case why did they even try to get under? Burnett and Russell Martin were cast offs in the cost cutting and they sure helped the Pirates last year.

I don't get the tigers at all. They gave away Fister for basically peanuts to have money to re-sign some of their guys. Now they are going to dump $20 mil into Tanaka?

I really think it's the cubs and maybe 1-2 other teams. That's probably the M's and maybe someone like the the Rangers or Jays. It feels like a lot of the reports are just there to have something to write about rather than having any inside info. Really when you logically think about it teams like the Tigers and Dodgers don't make sense.

The teams that make the most sense are the teams with the most flexibility which is the Cubs and Mariners.

The Cubs have little to no contracts of substance tied to the bottom line, while the Mariners have King Felix and Cano. The M's could make another splash if needed, but they also have really good talent coming through the ranks on the pitching end, and I am hoping that their next investment will be a hitter and not Tanaka.

It's time for Theo and Co. to pull out all of the stops and lace a potential deal with perks-o-plenty to convince Tanaka to join the Cubs.

One perk for sure is that he will immediately be thought of as the Cubs ACE. Call it minute, but I think every player wants to be considered the best on his team at his respective position.

As for the rest of the perks, I will leave that up to Theo and Jed.

Hopefully, Theo can use his background to convince Tanaka to come to a team that is on the verge of being good rather than a team that is already there. That might be the toughest one of them all.

 

[chibears55]

im a bit surprise that after a week. , we still haven't heard of any offers made. I know he still in Japan but I haven't even heard about a team actually talking to him yet.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I437 using Tapatalk

 

[SilenceS]

LA dodgers really don't make sense to me. Assuming he gets $20 mil/year the dodgers would be giving 3 starters $75+ mil plus($25 Grienke, $30+ for Kershaw and $20). They also have Ryu thru 2018 as well. So that gives them 4 starters with Billingsly, Beckett and Haren all as short term options for this year. That's a hell of a lot of pitching. They also have Zach Lee who profiles as a middle of the rotation starter. While they could try and trade some of these guys it just doesn't feel like they have the need at all. It'd be a case of spending money just to spend it.

The Yanks also really don't make sense to me. They've clearly tried to make this the year they got under the luxury tax. If they sign Tanaka there's basically 0 chance they get under for the next 3 years. I'm pretty sure that even holds true if A-rod is suspended year long. People can, and have, said they don't really care but if that's the case why did they even try to get under? Burnett and Russell Martin were cast offs in the cost cutting and they sure helped the Pirates last year.

I don't get the tigers at all. They gave away Fister for basically peanuts to have money to re-sign some of their guys. Now they are going to dump $20 mil into Tanaka?

I really think it's the cubs and maybe 1-2 other teams. That's probably the M's and maybe someone like the the Rangers or Jays. It feels like a lot of the reports are just there to have something to write about rather than having any inside info. Really when you logically think about it teams like the Tigers and Dodgers don't make sense.

Yankees are going to be right in the middle. They are not going to sit back. They have plans to spend on him. The Yanks always need pitching and will do anything to win. You are holding on to the luxury tax thing to much. There were just reports that the Yanks plan to shatter the International spending record this year. Its what the Yanks do. Dodgers, they are a wild card. You can say its to much, but no one really knows how far the Dodgers pockets will go. Detroit is a little surprising, but so was Fielder when they signed him.

 

[CSF77]

NL West Notes: D'Backs, Tanaka, Hanley, Giants
By Mark Polishuk [January 2, 2014 at 10:09pm CST]
The Diamondbacks consider Masahiro Tanaka to be their "No. 1 target" and are serious suitors for the Japanese ace, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports. Had Arizona not acquired Mark Trumbo, the Snakes were open to spending the $140MM that agent Scott Boras said it would've taken to sign Shin-Soo Choo, and Rosenthal notes that D'Backs management could instead invest that money (the $20MM posting fee and a $120MM contract) towards landing Tanaka. The D'Backs could have an extra source for information on Tanaka in the form of scout Rick Short, who played with Tanaka from 2007-09 on the Rakuten Golden Eagles.

You can click here for some Tanaka news from earlier today, and here are some more items from around the NL West...

Also from Rosenthal's piece, Arizona could be more motivated to sign an ace like Tanaka in free agency since they found the Cubs' and Rays' respective asking prices for Jeff Samardzija and David Price to be too high, Rosenthal notes, not to mention the fact that Price will become more expensive in his final two arbitration-eligible seasons. The D'Backs rate Tanaka higher than other free agent arms like Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana.





Phillies Agree To New TV Contract
By Mark Polishuk [January 2 at 9:26pm CST]
The Phillies have agreed to a new local TV contract with Comcast SportsNet, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News reports. A CSN spokesperson confirmed the deal in an e-mail to Murphy. Terms of the deal weren't announced, but Kevin Cooney of the Bucks County Courier Times reports that the contract is between 20-25 years in length and is worth a "massive" amount of money, according to a source. The Phillies were already getting roughly $35MM per year in their current deal with CSN, and the new contract will begin once the current deal expires following the 2015 season.

Given the length of the new deal, the Phillies seem set to be the latest team to earn over $1 billion from their TV rights. As Murphy notes, however, it's too soon to know how the extra revenue will impact the club's player payroll, as the Phils have (if anything) seemingly been looking to trim payroll though they knew this TV windfall was in the offing.




Nationals Notes: Molina, Tanaka, Payroll
By Mark Polishuk [January 2 at 8:03pm CST]
The Nationals had interest in Jose Molina as the club's backup catcher in 2014, MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports, but Molina instead chose to re-sign with Tampa Bay. This leaves Chris Snyder (signed to a minor league deal two weeks ago) and prospects Jhonatan Solano and Sandy Leon as the current candidates to spell Wilson Ramos behind the plate. Ladson discusses the Nats' middle infield options, a possible lineup and other topics as part of his reader mailbag piece. Here are some more Nationals-related items....

James Wagner and Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post have a Nationals mailbag piece of their own, which includes Kilgore's opinion that the Nats won't pursue Masahiro Tanaka "in any meaningful way" since he'll command too high a price. That said, the Nats have scouted Tanaka and like him; the baseball operations department feels Tanaka is "pretty close in quality to Yu Darvish" except they project Tanaka as a dominant ground-ball pitcher instead of a big strikeout arm.

Gammons On Gardner, Denorfia, Drew
By Mark Polishuk [January 2 at 6:09pm CST]
Here are some hot stove items from Peter Gammons in his latest piece for his namesake website, GammonsDaily.com...

Gammons adds the Phillies to the list of teams who "have taken a run" at acquiring Brett Gardner from the Yankees. Philadelphia is one of "at least a half-dozen teams" who have checked in on Gardner --- we've seen the Tigers, Reds, Indians, and Giants also linked to Gardner earlier in the offseason. Both Yankees president Randy Levine and GM Brian Cashman have said they admire Gardner's play and aren't willing to move him, though Gammons feels that Cashman "won’t move [Gardner] until and unless [Cashman] has to for starting pitching." This is just my speculation, but Gammons' phrasing could be a hint that the Yankees could shop Gardner if they fail to land Masahiro Tanaka.



Latest On Masahiro Tanaka
By Jeff Todd [January 2 at 2:25pm CST]
The market's most intriguing name, Masahiro Tanaka, will undoubtedly continue to generate ample speculation, rumors, and discussion until he chooses a destination. Here are today's notes on the former Rakuten ace, including multiple accounts that tilt towards a reunion in Seattle with Hisashi Iwakuma, who once fronted the rotation of the Golden Eagles alongside Tanaka:

Competing executives view the Mariners as a real threat to land Tanaka, tweets ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. The industry perception, says Stark, is that Seattle can make one more big splash to accompany its signing of Robinson Cano.
Based on his own conversations with industry sources, Baseball America's Ben Badler agrees that Seattle is the odds-on favorite amongst the ten most likely landing spots. Badler believes that the team has the strongest blend of need and available cash with respect to Tanaka. The other top contenders for Tanaka are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs, says Badler, while the Tigers figure as a "sleeper" team and "lurkers" include the Rangers, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, and Angels
Looking at things from the perspective of need, rather than handicapping the results of the market, Seattle again comes out in the lead, according to Dave Szymborski of ESPN.com (Insider piece). Adding Tanaka could be the best way for the Mariners to build towards the approximately ten WAR that the club still needs to add to be a full-blown threat in a reloaded AL West, Szymborski says. Other teams that could most use the 25-year-old Japanese hurler include the Phillies and Orioles.
Attempting to find comparable players for Tanaka, Fangraphs' Dave Cameron argues that his upside may not come with a sufficient floor to justify a nine-figure investment. Given Tanaka's anticipated blend of low walk, average strikeout, and high groundball rates, says Cameron, reasonable expectations should perhaps be that he'll be above average but not great. While a series of attractive starters have thrived with Tanaka's skillset, Cameron explains, there are plenty of other potential comparables who would never receive those kinds of dollars.

 

[beckdawg]

Yankees are going to be right in the middle. They are not going to sit back. They have plans to spend on him. The Yanks always need pitching and will do anything to win. You are holding on to the luxury tax thing to much. There were just reports that the Yanks plan to shatter the International spending record this year. Its what the Yanks do. Dodgers, they are a wild card. You can say its to much, but no one really knows how far the Dodgers pockets will go. Detroit is a little surprising, but so was Fielder when they signed him.

International spending has nothing to do with the luxury tax though. They are separate things. And sure there's taxes applied to overspending there but worst case they are spending what? $5 mil in taxes?

Also why shouldn't I hold on to the the luxury tax? If they don't get under this year they wont be under the next 3. And if they are over this year every dollar they are over is taxed at 50% That may not seem like a big deal but think about how many older players they have on that team. Unless they get an infusion of young talent from their minors the only way they can stay competitive is to spend on top FA like they have in the past. But as they would already be over any FA they sign cost 50% more to them than anyone else. Ellsbury this year would go from costing them $20 mil to $30 mil a season essentially. And ok they are the yankees and have deep pockets but they also just built a huge stadium they need to pay off with the most expensive tickets in the majors. They couldn't sell them so they reduce their prices. And then they still couldn't sell them.

Believe it or not they do have limits. And as I said, if they don't give a shit about the tax then what was the point in letting Burnett and Martin go to save money in the first place? They didn't replace them with better players which is why they had to go out and spend money on pitching and and a catcher this year. To be honest, I heard someone suggest the only reason they are "in" on Tanaka is to drive up the price for their competition which makes sense given their situation. Frankly, if they get into this scenario where they keep throwing money at older players and eat a 50% penalty every year to do so they are going to end up with quite a mess.

Also, let's say the Yanks try to get under during the season as some have suggested. The two players that are probably the easiest for them to move are Soriano and Kuroda both of whom have NTC's. Soriano waived it to come to the yanks and may not waive it for them. Kuroda had already killed a previous trade with his.

 

[SilenceS]

International spending has nothing to do with the luxury tax though. They are separate things. And sure there's taxes applied to overspending there but worst case they are spending what? $5 mil in taxes?

Also why shouldn't I hold on to the the luxury tax? If they don't get under this year they wont be under the next 3. And if they are over this year every dollar they are over is taxed at 50% That may not seem like a big deal but think about how many older players they have on that team. Unless they get an infusion of young talent from their minors the only way they can stay competitive is to spend on top FA like they have in the past. But as they would already be over any FA they sign cost 50% more to them than anyone else. Ellsbury this year would go from costing them $20 mil to $30 mil a season essentially. And ok they are the yankees and have deep pockets but they also just built a huge stadium they need to pay off with the most expensive tickets in the majors. They couldn't sell them so they reduce their prices. And then they still couldn't sell them.

Believe it or not they do have limits. And as I said, if they don't give a shit about the tax then what was the point in letting Burnett and Martin go to save money in the first place? They didn't replace them with better players which is why they had to go out and spend money on pitching and and a catcher this year. To be honest, I heard someone suggest the only reason they are "in" on Tanaka is to drive up the price for their competition which makes sense given their situation. Frankly, if they get into this scenario where they keep throwing money at older players and eat a 50% penalty every year to do so they are going to end up with quite a mess.

Also, let's say the Yanks try to get under during the season as some have suggested. The two players that are probably the easiest for them to move are Soriano and Kuroda both of whom have NTC's. Soriano waived it to come to the yanks and may not waive it for them. Kuroda had already killed a previous trade with his.

We will see but they were willing to sign Cano as well. I know internetional spending doesn't count. It just shows how they are. Yankees crave pitching and if they can get him. They will get him. Everything I read says the yanks are going to go hard. I have no reason to believe they won't because they never just sit back. Oh and they lowered tickets because they were a fortune and the economy isn't good enough for regular fans to continue to buy. The cubs won't lower theres and attendance keeps dropping