Tanaka will be posted

[The Bandit]

I agree. I'd love to add Tanaka, as he's young and we'd have him under our control for a long time. Something Jed and Theo talk a lot about. But we're facing off with teams like Yankee's. If they offered Cano $180M and missed out, they clearly have money to spend. We're not going to land Tanaka because small market teams like us can't compete with the bigger cities.

If the bidding war was with teams in markets that were only slightly bigger, like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee, maybe we could win. But a tiny town like Chicago can't financially compete with huge markets like Annaheim and New York City. Annaheim has neighborhoods bigger than our entire city, for Christ sakes. I'm surprised a town as small as ours can even support a minor league baseball team, let a lone a single major league ball club.

Sucks being from a small town. I dream of living in a mega-metropolis like Cincinnati.

:andruw::enough:

 

[SilenceS]

From what I gathered, all 30 teams can negotiate with Tanaka. Whoever he decides is the best deal and accepts the team then adds on the 20 million for his services. They is no posting fee put up then they can negotiate. He can talk to any team.

 

[dabynsky]

From what I gathered, all 30 teams can negotiate with Tanaka. Whoever he decides is the best deal and accepts the team then adds on the 20 million for his services. They is no posting fee put up then they can negotiate. He can talk to any team.

You are correct. Tanaka is essentially a free agent with a 20 million dollar tax added to the deal.

 

[The Bandit]

From what I gathered, all 30 teams can negotiate with Tanaka. Whoever he decides is the best deal and accepts the team then adds on the 20 million for his services. They is no posting fee put up then they can negotiate. He can talk to any team.

This new system is very interesting.. basically anyone can throw out a feeler and see what it would take with 0 liability.

 

[beckdawg]

Bob Nightengale ✔ @BNightengale
Follow
Team officials involved in Tanaka sweepstakes say the Japanese star will cost a minimum of $17 million a year

This isn't really "news" as most expect it higher but I think people would be surprised that $17 mil is the low end. Seems like some here think the low end is $20 mil+. Seems like $20 mil is closer to the top end based on this.

 

[The Bandit]

This isn't really "news" as most expect it higher but I think people would be surprised that $17 mil is the low end. Seems like some here think the low end is $20 mil+. Seems like $20 mil is closer to the top end based on this.

Can't say I'm surprised that 20 is close to the top. Ace money for A supposed solid 2 that hasn't thrown a pitch here yet is a bit out there.

 

[dabynsky]

Can't say I'm surprised that 20 is close to the top. Ace money for A supposed solid 2 that hasn't thrown a pitch here yet is a bit out there.

Seriously 20 million hasn't been Ace money for five years now.

 

[CSF77]

25-28 mil is considered top 3 starter cash.

Cliff Lee 25 mil this year
Zack Greinke 24 mil this year.
CC Sabathia 23 mil per
Cole Hamels 22.5 mil
Felix Hernandez 22 mil scales up every year.
Justin Verlander 20 mil in 2014, 2015 28 mil
Matt Cain 20 mil

20 mil is in the top 10 for SP.

 

[beckdawg]

Seriously 20 million hasn't been Ace money for five years now.

Still not really #2 money either though unless your #2 is a potential ace on another team. Sanchez got $18 mil/year.

 

[chibears55]

You are correct. Tanaka is essentially a free agent with a 20 million dollar tax added to the deal.

so there is no bidding process? every japanese player that posts will cost an extra 20 mil no matter the talent level? then why was 20 mil set as a max amount if there is no actual bidding to see who bid the highest and have the rights to negotiate if all teams are able to negotiate?

 

[dabynsky]

so there is no bidding process? every japanese player that posts will cost an extra 20 mil no matter the talent level? then why was 20 mil set as a max amount if there is no actual bidding to see who bid the highest and have the rights to negotiate if all teams are able to negotiate?

No bidding. The NPB team sets the posting fee up to 20 million. Then the player is free to negotiate with all MLB teams and whatever team signs him agrees to pay the posting fee the NPB team set. This system actually will be pretty interesting when it comes to the non-elite NPB players that get posted.

 

[dabynsky]

25-28 mil is considered top 3 starter cash.

Cliff Lee 25 mil this year
Zack Greinke 24 mil this year.
CC Sabathia 23 mil per
Cole Hamels 22.5 mil
Felix Hernandez 22 mil scales up every year.
Justin Verlander 20 mil in 2014, 2015 28 mil
Matt Cain 20 mil

20 mil is in the top 10 for SP.

CC is the only one that was truly close to a free agent though. Greinke is hardly an ace and received well over 20 million.

 

[chibears55]

No bidding. The NPB team sets the posting fee up to 20 million. Then the player is free to negotiate with all MLB teams and whatever team signs him agrees to pay the posting fee the NPB team set. This system actually will be pretty interesting when it comes to the non-elite NPB players that get posted.

thanks, that's what I wasn't getting.. I thought the MLB teams were bidding up to 20 MIL, so yes it will be interesting to see how a NPB team values some lesser players compared to MLB.. wouldn't surprise me if there were some questionable ones that were posted at 20 MIL, just to see if a few MLB teams will bite..

 

[beckdawg]

CC is the only one that was truly close to a free agent though. Greinke is hardly an ace and received well over 20 million.

Not sure if you buy into WAR but over the past 3 years he's had 11.3 which makes him the 13th best. Even if you don't buy into WAR, 3.32 ERA with 46-15 record are pretty damn good numbers not to mention 8.80 k/9 and 2.32 bb/9. He'd easily be the best pitcher on almost every team without a Kershaw type(read top 5 pitcher).

 

[dabynsky]

Not sure if you buy into WAR but over the past 3 years he's had 11.3 which makes him the 13th best. Even if you don't buy into WAR, 3.32 ERA with 46-15 record are pretty damn good numbers not to mention 8.80 k/9 and 2.32 bb/9. He'd easily be the best pitcher on almost every team without a Kershaw type(read top 5 pitcher).

Look the definition of ace is something special. Greinke has pitched at the highest levels basically twice in his career, 2009 and last year. The rest of the time he has been a very good but not great pitcher. Going by the arbitrary end points of the past three seasons he ranks between Doug Fister and Bartolo Colon in terms of ERA amongst starting pitchers. FIP and xFIP are a lot more kind placing him in the top 10, but I have hard time buying the ace label when his ERA+ is lower than CJ Wilson's during that timeframe despite pitching 70 fewer innings.

But here is the thing about arbitrary endpoints, let us extend the timeframe just one more year out. Greinke drops to 43rd in terms of ERA amongst qualified starters. Greinke ranks well in terms of WAR, FIP and xFIP because he does well in the three true outcome categories, but the results have not always bore that out. Heading into signing his deal he had a career 3.77 ERA with a 110 ERA+ coming off of years of 4.17, 3.83, 3.48. He was hardly pitching like an ace when he was signed.

Even if you want to place Greinke in the ace category that is still well above the 20 million mark, and he signed that at an older age than Tanaka is now. Just to put things in perspective a broken Tim Lincecum got 17.5 million before testing free agency this past offseason.

 

[beckdawg]

Look the definition of ace is something special. Greinke has pitched at the highest levels basically twice in his career, 2009 and last year. The rest of the time he has been a very good but not great pitcher. Going by the arbitrary end points of the past three seasons he ranks between Doug Fister and Bartolo Colon in terms of ERA amongst starting pitchers. FIP and xFIP are a lot more kind placing him in the top 10, but I have hard time buying the ace label when his ERA+ is lower than CJ Wilson's during that timeframe despite pitching 70 fewer innings.

But here is the thing about arbitrary endpoints, let us extend the timeframe just one more year out. Greinke drops to 43rd in terms of ERA amongst qualified starters. Greinke ranks well in terms of WAR, FIP and xFIP because he does well in the three true outcome categories, but the results have not always bore that out. Heading into signing his deal he had a career 3.77 ERA with a 110 ERA+ coming off of years of 4.17, 3.83, 3.48. He was hardly pitching like an ace when he was signed.

Even if you want to place Greinke in the ace category that is still well above the 20 million mark, and he signed that at an older age than Tanaka is now. Just to put things in perspective a broken Tim Lincecum got 17.5 million before testing free agency this past offseason.

I wasn't trying to be tricky using 3 years. It's just a good look at a decently large recent sample size and typically that's how you view people. Either way, the term of "ace" is rather nebulous. If you want to question whether he's worthy of the top pitcher money that's a valid concern. But it's not like he's some second rate #2 people are propping up as an ace. He's easily one of the 30 best pitchers in the league no matter what time line you put him on. If you look at his WAR over the length of his career he has 37.3 which is 8th over that time frame. He'd have a 3.65 ERA with 106-82 record 7.98 k/9 and 2.29 bb/9. His ERA over that time would be 22nd but should be noted he spent a lot of his time in the AL which inflates it some over a lot of the names ahead of him who have been NL only pitchers. For example, Lincecum has only been up since 2007 but he pitched in a pitchers park as well as the NL and he has a career 3.46. Last year the AL averaged 4.33 runs/game while the NL averaged 4.00 runs/game. Over 32 starts that's roughly 11 more runs a season and if you pitch say 200 innings that adds up to a half run of ERA though it's probably closer to 1/4th as some of that will be relievers.

Arguably he's more in the 5-15 range pitcher discussion and as such should be making closer to $20 mil like you mentioned. All I'm saying is he's still a very good pitcher. I'd put him more in the Hamels range than say the Kershaw range.

 

[dabynsky]

I wasn't trying to be tricky using 3 years. It's just a good look at a decently large recent sample size and typically that's how you view people. Either way, the term of "ace" is rather nebulous. If you want to question whether he's worthy of the top pitcher money that's a valid concern. But it's not like he's some second rate #2 people are propping up as an ace. He's easily one of the 30 best pitchers in the league no matter what time line you put him on. If you look at his WAR over the length of his career he has 37.3 which is 8th over that time frame. He'd have a 3.65 ERA with 106-82 record 7.98 k/9 and 2.29 bb/9. His ERA over that time would be 22nd but should be noted he spent a lot of his time in the AL which inflates it some over a lot of the names ahead of him who have been NL only pitchers.

Arguably he's more in the 5-15 range pitcher discussion and as such should be making closer to $20 mil like you mentioned. All I'm saying is he's still a very good pitcher. I'd put him more in the Hamels range than say the Kershaw range.

Even accepting that, he is still well above that 20 million mark which was my point. To sign an ace today costs you well above 20 million. That has been true for several years with Johan Santana and CC getting well over 20 million in 08 and 09. The price of pitching is crazy and while you can make an argument that it is crazy to sign a guy who hasn't throw a major league pitch to something in that 6 year 120 million mark. The market will bear that price given how much prices are escalating, after all Kershaw turned down 300 million reportedly.

 

[beckdawg]

Even accepting that, he is still well above that 20 million mark which was my point. To sign an ace today costs you well above 20 million. That has been true for several years with Johan Santana and CC getting well over 20 million in 08 and 09. The price of pitching is crazy and while you can make an argument that it is crazy to sign a guy who hasn't throw a major league pitch to something in that 6 year 120 million mark. The market will bear that price given how much prices are escalating, after all Kershaw turned down 300 million reportedly.

It's really not surprising Kershaw turned down that contract if reports are right. A lifetime contract for $300 mil is probably low for what he can get. He'll be 26 next year. If he takes say a 5 year deal for $30 mil a season he can then get another bite the apple at age 31 for potentially $35 mil+ if he continues doing what he's doing and stays healthy. You could make the argument he could end up getting a 5 year $150 mil deal and then a 8-9 year deal for $280-315 in 5 years. As you can see that's way more than $300 mil.

As for Tanaka, color me as just not seeing it. It's one thing if you're absolutely sure he's a #1 pitcher. But the word is that he's a #2. And how many #2 pitchers are making $20 mil? Grienke isn't a #1 on the dodgers but he would be on probably 20 teams if not more. No one's talking about Garza getting $20 mil. Sanchez got $18 mil. It seems to me the #1 market is currently $20-25 mil. The #2 market seems to be $15-19 mil. The #3 market seems to be $10-14 mil. Now some teams like the tigers are paying for #2's to be their #3 and obviously the dodgers are paying #1 money to Grienke to be a #2. So, that's not 100% accurate. But that seems to be the dividing lines.

 

[CSF77]

80 mil should be his market value. The hype will push it up.

I believe it will be a 2 horse race in the end. Cubs and Yanks.

When the price goes over 120 mil then the other teams will go after Garza etc.

Tanaka will get over paid.

 

[Boobaby1]

It's not about teams folding. It's about spending your money efficiently. Also, you're suggesting that having a spending limit is being afraid which is silly. Offering someone $20 mil/year isn't penny pinching. People act like the only way to improve a team is with one great player and if you don't get him all is lost. Sorry but if i'm going to pay top 5 pitcher money I want someone who's already shown he's a top 5 pitcher.

Could Tanaka work out at that price? Sure. But don't act like I'm the only one adverse to paying him that high. There's numerous talent evaluators who have said they don't think his skills will translate or are worried he will break down. All I'm saying is pay him what you think he's worth. Don't pay whatever it takes to win if that exceeds what he's worth by a substantial margin.

And all I am saying is that the Cubs say they are all in, and that is all that should matter to anyone regardless of what talent evaluators think. The Cubs brass and head honcho obviously feel he is the real deal.

Are you going to listen to the evaluators, or have trust in your beloved front office? I happen to choose the latter because the evaluators aren't going to help the Cubs win in any capacity.