Tanaka will be posted

[TL1961]

I really hate the Sox v. Cubs debates. I know, I know if I don't like them stay out of the threads they're in. But, come on, guys. Does it really matter?

You DID stay out of a Cubs vs. Sox thread.

You innocently entered a thread on Tanaka, as many of us did, and learned that some bonehead hijacked it for his own interests.

 

[TL1961]

In fairness it's not $3 mil though if you're talking about the difference between $20 mil and $23 mil. It's probably $18-21 mil depending on the length of his deal. Also, $3 mil is a decent bench player. And even if they do make money back in merchandising that doesn't mean it filters into the front office's budget to that same extent. In other words, if they sell $3 million in jerseys from him that doesn't mean the front office has $3 mil more to spend.

Plus, he's not making $18-21 mil over 6-7 years. He would be making $138-$161 mil. Saying "it's just $3 mil" ignores the context. Hypothetically, if you can sign Garza to $16 mil Tanaka is very unlikely to be $7 mil/year better than him unless he turns into Darvish or unless Garza is just flat out bad/injured. Scouts project him as a solid 2 with potential. Garza is a solid 2. Even if Garza goes for $18 mil/year Tanaka isn't going to bring in an additional $5 mil to the front office budget.

You also say don't worry about him being an ace because other teams have won without them. True enough. But none of the non-ace's you listed were making top 5 pitcher money which is what Tanaka would be making at $23 mil/year. That's sort of the point. Because they didn't dump a ton of money into those pitchers they were able to spend else where and make the team better, namely paying Pujols, Carpenter, Rolen,and Edmonds

The hypothetical I was presenting was that it takes the extra $3 mil to get him. So if you save the $3 million, and get a "decent bench player", you have no top pitcher.

Not having a legit #1 or 2 would have a far more negative effect than any "decent bench player" could offset.

In other words, if that three million was the difference between having him or not having him, it could be money well spent.

I can't guarantee he's a true #1. (Most say he's a solid #2) But given the Cubs current makeup, with lots of position player prospects, and not a lot of pitching in the minors that is close, this is the type of deal that would make sense.

 

[TL1961]

As for the revenue, as I said $5 mil in revenue isn't $5 mil in payroll for the cubs. That's not how it works. The cubs had $274 mil in revenue last year and only had $105 mil opening day payroll. The front office is getting roughly 1/3rd of the revenue the cubs make. So, realistically to cover that $5 mil difference he has to bring in $15 mil every year of his deal. [/B]


I don't understand your point. $5 million in revenue to the Cubs is $5 million in revenue to the Cubs, period. The fact they have not spent the exact same on payroll as they have brought in in revenue (naturally) doesn't change the fact that, if they spend an additional $3 and bring in an additional $5, they offset that money.

Now to be fair, if the assumption they will get $5 million is accurate, they would still get that $5 mil in revenue whether they pay him 23, or 20, or 17. I think the argument is that it would make sense to go to $23 if necessary, as the $5 would offset the 23, and you'd compare that to a guy making 18 without that draw.


As for TV, the revenue ESPN draws really doesn't matter because that's their revenue not the Cubs.

Agree with this - the argument made that ESPN's revenues go up don't help the team signing Tanaka at all.

 

[dabynsky]

So is Tanaka signed yet?

I feel so bored with this process to be completely honest. The offseason has been set up to completely revolve around adding Tanaka, but the odds are low the Cubs land him. That isn't a slam on the front office just the reality that there are a lot of teams involved. Money is probably the number 1 factor, but have to imagine West Coast appeals a lot to him. I guess we will see what happens.

 

[Boobaby1]

When I mention Garza I'm talking more philosophically than saying the cubs should sign him. As I've said numerous times, by all means go after Tanaka but if some team is going to give him $23+ mil then that doesn't mean you have to give him $24+ mil. My point is it's not a case of Tanaka or nothing. They have other options. And even if they choose to do nothing else in FA this season, there's next season and they will still have that money(even more in fact). What if Kershaw decides not to re-sign with LA for whatever reason? Would $25+ mil a year not be much better spent on him? Paying Tanaka substantially more than you think he is capable of performing is money you can't spend on other players. We don't know exactly what the Cubs think he is(eg #1/2). If they truly believe he's a #1 on the level of Kershaw and Verlander...etc then by all means pay him $25 mil. But if you believe the guy is only ever going to be a #2 don't pay him $25 mil because you don't have anything. That's how you end up with someone like Mark Buehrle making $19 mil a year for your team with a 4.15 ERA.

As for the revenue, as I said $5 mil in revenue isn't $5 mil in payroll for the cubs. That's not how it works. The cubs had $274 mil in revenue last year and only had $105 mil opening day payroll. The front office is getting roughly 1/3rd of the revenue the cubs make. So, realistically to cover that $5 mil difference he has to bring in $15 mil every year of his deal. As for TV, the revenue ESPN draws really doesn't matter because that's their revenue not the Cubs. And while higher ratings is something you can use in TV contract negotiations, I really don't see players having that big of an impact on the negotiations. They really can't be because the networks wont know for certain which players will be there long term and which wont. Take Miami as an example. If they had been negotiating TV rights when they went on their spending spree the networks couldn't have thought well we'll have Reyes, Buehrle and Bell as star power because less than a year later they were traded away. And regardless, Theo thinks the cubs will do really well in those tv contract negotiations anyways.

Regardless, I really don't see Theo getting in a bidding to win at any cost situation. He went through a very similar situation with Dice-K and that turned into a disaster. So, he knows exactly how bad things can go with hyped japanesse pitchers. I assume they will have a price they think he is worth and might go slightly above to win but nothing like $25 mil/year.

I believe it wasn't a disaster until he got hurt, and Kershaw at 280-300 million, or Price at 220 million are not immuned to that either. Furthermore, I would think that Theo was not all too unhappy considering that Dice-K was part of a WS victory in year one in 07', and posted an 18-3 record with a stellar 2.90 ERA in 08'. Oh what a problem to have.

I notice you have picked the bad side of the Japanese, now how did Darvish and Ichiro work out for their respective teams?

When I start to see baseball teams folding because of a bad contract, then I will start to believe in penny pinching. The Angels have had a couple seemingly unworthy contracts, and are still to believed to be a player in Tanaka. Teams can't be afraid to pull the trigger because of a bad deal. It's the nature of the business and the risks you take for trying to win.

 

[Chris J]

Here's my prediction..... Of Fisch's reaction

1. If cubs sign Tanaka: O so we are supposed to believe that some guy from Japan is gonna save the Cubs and help us win? Yea how did that work with Dice K?

2. If Cubs dont sign Tanaka: Of course the Cubs miss a great chance to get a good player for once in free agency. THEO SUCKS

 

[nwfisch]

Here's my prediction..... Of Fisch's reaction

1. If cubs sign Tanaka: O so we are supposed to believe that some guy from Japan is gonna save the Cubs and help us win? Yea how did that work with Dice K?

2. If Cubs dont sign Tanaka: Of course the Cubs miss a great chance to get a good player for once in free agency. THEO SUCKS

Wrong.

 

[nwfisch]

Just curious, I thought personal attacks warranted a ban in this forum?

 

[Capt. Serious]

Here's my prediction..... Of Fisch's reaction

1. If cubs sign Tanaka: O so we are supposed to believe that some guy from Japan is gonna save the Cubs and help us win? Yea how did that work with Dice K?

2. If Cubs dont sign Tanaka: Of course the Cubs miss a great chance to get a good player for once in free agency. THEO SUCKS

Go back to sucking Theo's nuts.

 

[Chris J]

haha Yea captain serious didnt you know that. thats an attack against me

 

[dabynsky]

Just curious, I thought personal attacks warranted a ban in this forum?

[video=youtube;RFZrzg62Zj0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFZrzg62Zj0[/video]

This is the thing I missed the least when I was gone. Seriously I am so sick of reading about who got banned and what not. It seems like some people's goal is to suck any fun discussing about actual baseball from this place. But beyond that what personal attack happened in the last few posts?

 

[CSF77]

So is Tanaka signed yet?

I feel so bored with this process to be completely honest. The offseason has been set up to completely revolve around adding Tanaka, but the odds are low the Cubs land him. That isn't a slam on the front office just the reality that there are a lot of teams involved. Money is probably the number 1 factor, but have to imagine West Coast appeals a lot to him. I guess we will see what happens.

Posting window is 30 days. Jan 24 is the end of the window.

I doubt it will take that long.

 

[dabynsky]

Posting window is 30 days. Jan 24 is the end of the window.

I doubt it will take that long.

Thanks. I was being facetious with the is it over. I am just suffering from major Tanaka fatigue at this point. I will be excited if he signs, but there are red flags with him as well. I also think it is more than likely that he ends up on either coast.

 

[nwfisch]

[video=youtube;RFZrzg62Zj0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFZrzg62Zj0[/video]

This is the thing I missed the least when I was gone. Seriously I am so sick of reading about who got banned and what not. It seems like some people's goal is to suck any fun discussing about actual baseball from this place. But beyond that what personal attack happened in the last few posts?

He mocked my reaction to the Tanaka signing...which had 0% baseball related content in it.

 

[dabynsky]

He mocked my reaction to the Tanaka signing...which had 0% baseball related content in it.

Seriously I gave up months ago because you guys are terrible about this. You wanted a free for all and I granted your request on my end.

 

[nwfisch]

Seriously I gave up months ago because you guys are terrible about this. You wanted a free for all and I granted your request on my end.

:clap:

 

[beckdawg]

I don't understand your point. $5 million in revenue to the Cubs is $5 million in revenue to the Cubs, period. The fact they have not spent the exact same on payroll as they have brought in in revenue (naturally) doesn't change the fact that, if they spend an additional $3 and bring in an additional $5, they offset that money.

The point is the revenue they make doesn't go back to the on the field product at the same rate. If the front office over pays on someone that's money they no longer have in their budget. So, sure the business makes the money back but the front office has less flexibility to spend else where because they aren't seeing all of that return to them.

 

[beckdawg]

When I start to see baseball teams folding because of a bad contract, then I will start to believe in penny pinching. The Angels have had a couple seemingly unworthy contracts, and are still to believed to be a player in Tanaka. Teams can't be afraid to pull the trigger because of a bad deal. It's the nature of the business and the risks you take for trying to win.

It's not about teams folding. It's about spending your money efficiently. Also, you're suggesting that having a spending limit is being afraid which is silly. Offering someone $20 mil/year isn't penny pinching. People act like the only way to improve a team is with one great player and if you don't get him all is lost. Sorry but if i'm going to pay top 5 pitcher money I want someone who's already shown he's a top 5 pitcher.

Could Tanaka work out at that price? Sure. But don't act like I'm the only one adverse to paying him that high. There's numerous talent evaluators who have said they don't think his skills will translate or are worried he will break down. All I'm saying is pay him what you think he's worth. Don't pay whatever it takes to win if that exceeds what he's worth by a substantial margin.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

So is Tanaka signed yet?

I feel so bored with this process to be completely honest. The offseason has been set up to completely revolve around adding Tanaka, but the odds are low the Cubs land him. That isn't a slam on the front office just the reality that there are a lot of teams involved. Money is probably the number 1 factor, but have to imagine West Coast appeals a lot to him. I guess we will see what happens.

I agree. I'd love to add Tanaka, as he's young and we'd have him under our control for a long time. Something Jed and Theo talk a lot about. But we're facing off with teams like Yankee's. If they offered Cano $180M and missed out, they clearly have money to spend. We're not going to land Tanaka because small market teams like us can't compete with the bigger cities.

If the bidding war was with teams in markets that were only slightly bigger, like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee, maybe we could win. But a tiny town like Chicago can't financially compete with huge markets like Annaheim and New York City. Annaheim has neighborhoods bigger than our entire city, for Christ sakes. I'm surprised a town as small as ours can even support a minor league baseball team, let a lone a single major league ball club.

Sucks being from a small town. I dream of living in a mega-metropolis like Cincinnati.

 

[dabynsky]

I agree. I'd love to add Tanaka, as he's young and we'd have him under our control for a long time. Something Jed and Theo talk a lot about. But we're facing off with teams like Yankee's. If they offered Cano $180M and missed out, they clearly have money to spend. We're not going to land Tanaka because small market teams like us can't compete with the bigger cities.

If the bidding war was with teams in markets that were only slightly bigger, like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee, maybe we could win. But a tiny town like Chicago can't financially compete with huge markets like Annaheim and New York City. Annaheim has neighborhoods bigger than our entire city, for Christ sakes. I'm surprised a town as small as ours can even support a minor league baseball team, let a lone a single major league ball club.

Sucks being from a small town. I dream of living in a mega-metropolis like Cincinnati.

Do you enjoy being a caricature? I mean seriously your point is beyond old, but even if it wasn't we are talking about the two cities larger than Chicago when it comes to New York and Los Angeles. Much less the fact that is some hidden secret that Japanese players prefer the West Coast since it is closer to home.