Tanaka will be posted

[CSF77]

Not sure why this thread has gone to a worthiness of the 2005 Sox.

Honestly who cares? Last I checked it is going to be 2014 and both the Cubs and sox are fighting for draft pick rights vs any winning ways.

All I can say is good luck in 2014 in getting out of the sewer. At least the sox have a legit ace. I would lock him up.

I also like the deals that they did this year. I believe they can turn it around.

But I believe the Cubs have a better chance at long term success. Face it it comes down to having a top farm and resource. Sox are not matching up there.

Not biased at all. I liked the sox growing up also. I didn't care that they became the Raiders of the MLB in recent years. Bill Veck was the man

 

[brett05]

seriously ?? don't have time to look back for articles of writers and such who may have used lucky over controversial for those calls.

Again you've shown here that you're making stuff up

6) by mentioning luck you come across as sour apples. Insteae you should be calling them one if the top five or so WS champions based on that team's dominance.
post 46

So not original as in post 44 I speak clearly of the playoffs. You can admit it now

haven't said anything but the fact that they had some lucky/controversial calls go their way..

You have belittled the effort plain and simple. Might not have meant to do that but that is exactly what you've done.

good idea.. if it costs that much to land Tanka, if its for more then 4 yrs they should pass.. id be surprise if given more then 5 yrs, if he receives more then 100 mil from teams unless its either front or back loaded or with options..

To a good team yes to a team like the Cubs or the White Sox a 20%+ topping offer will be needed

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[TL1961]

23 per year seems excessive.

I've heard 105 mil. Then another said 125 mil. Yanks are trying to offer him a contract before the posts go up.

I've said 80 mil is the floor with him. Ceiling I'm seeing is 140 mil on a 7 year deal.

23 mil per is proven ace cash. He is not MLB tested.

So if that is his goal then he should sign a 3 year deal then re hit the market at 28 and then look at ace cash. By then his value should be known.

I believe a140 mil offer would lock him up. Yanks are the biggest competition here. They have to put them into a situation that they are going over 200 mil "this year" and into the tax heavy. Already lost to them on a manager would love to see them get screwed either on beating them or sending them into tax hell for years

What's another $3 million?
If they landed him for $20 million per, people would say it's a great deal.
If they pay $23 million, people will say they went overboard and made a bad deal.

Do you want to march out another 95 loss team for the sake of $3 million?

Pay waht it takes. They made tons of $ last year. Spend a few bucks on him and their rebuilding plan could take a huge step forward.

 

[brett05]

The Cubs never lost to the Yanks with a manager. The Cubs were never ever in the game.

If Tanaka signs a shorter deal a team like the Cubs have zero shot.

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[chibears55]

Again you've shown here that you're making stuff up

lol.. ok..

So not original as in post 44 I speak clearly of the playoffs. You can admit it now

Care to quote specifics? I mean they were 11-1. Right now you are coming off as sour apples.

don't see anything written about playoffs or being the top anything team in this post number 44 .....
you were asking me to post specifics about the lucky/controversial calls..

You have belittled the effort plain and simple. Might not have meant to do that but that is exactly what you've done

.
if you think so.. ive heard the most loyal, long time sox fans repeat what I wrote..

To a good team yes to a team like the Cubs or the White Sox a 20%+ topping offer will be needed

again, if it cost 20 or more for greater then 5 yrs, then their better off moving on from him..
we have no idea how this guy will pitch here to risk that much money over 5-7 yrs..

 

[brett05]

lol.. ok..



Care to quote specifics? I mean they were 11-1. Right now you are coming off as sour apples.

don't see anything written about playoffs or being the top anything team in this post number 44 .....
you were asking me to post specifics about the lucky/controversial calls..

You really had no clue that the team was 11-1 in the playoffs?????

.
if you think so.. ive heard the most loyal, long time sox fans repeat what I wrote..

Whatever helps you thru it

again, if it cost 20 or more for greater then 5 yrs, then their better off moving on from him..
we have no idea how this guy will pitch here to risk that much money over 5-7 yrs..

For most teams yes. For the Cubs no. They can take the minor hit. At five years the Cubs need to be 125

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[chibears55]

brett05 your cracking me up...

25 mil a yr for 5 yrs for a pitcher who we have no idea how he will perform here would be asinine. .
theyd been better off keeping garza for 5 yrs at 16 per

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[brett05]

brett05 your cracking me up...

25 mil a yr for 5 yrs for a pitcher who we have no idea how he will perform here would be asinine. .
theyd been better off keeping garza for 5 yrs at 16 per

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Oh I agree. Tanaka is getting 18-20 million from the goid teams. Bad teams 20%+ more

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[beckdawg]

Most recent numbers I've seen from quoted MLB sources(read GM's/scouts) suggested 6 year $105 mil + posting fee or 7 years $125 + posting. I really don't see where fans are pulling these $25 mil+/year numbers from. Darvish got 6 years $60 mil plus $51.7 mil posting fee. Yes the situation is different but Darvish is viewed as a better pitcher. Also, the Rangers were far and away the winners in posting. The cubs and every other team were second and $20 mil short if memory serves. So, I really see it being unlikely he gets much over $20 mil aav.

 

[CSF77]

Like I said 140 mil for 7 years should be his peak.

If he wants to get into the 23 mil range he needs a 3 year deal to prove that he is a top 5 starter. That is the cash that amount dictates.

 

[beckdawg]

Like I said 140 mil for 7 years should be his peak.

If he wants to get into the 23 mil range he needs a 3 year deal to prove that he is a top 5 starter. That is the cash that amount dictates.

I don't really see why any team would want to do that though. Because you're paying $20 mil just to sign him. Teams are going to want a 6-7 year deal to amortize that hit. And even if you're saying $23 mil with the posting fee that pushes the money he gets down to $16.3 mil/year which why would he want to do that? If you're suggesting $23 mil/year + the 20 mil fee you're paying him $30 mil for 3 seasons which is absurd for someone who's not yet thrown a pitch in the majors. And even worse, if you're right in your justification for signing him you're then giving him another big deal 3 years down the road.

I honestly don't even see it getting close to $140 mil unless you're saying that includes the posting fee and only then at 7 years. At $20 mil/year you're paying him around the amount Cain made last year and you don't even know how good he is. If you're the cubs and can front load some of that in a season where you are likely to suck and therefore make him cheaper on the back end when you're ready to compete fine. It matches up with your biggest organizational needs and he fits the time line of your players. But the other teams? The majority of these teams are win now plays and would probably be much safer and better value to go after someone like Garza. Granted he's had health issues but you know exactly what he is when healthy and he's likely to go for cheaper.

How many #2 pitchers are making $20 mil? Grienke makes $26,000,000. Lee makes $25,000,000. Hammels makes $23,500,000. Sabathia makes $23,000,000. King Felix makes $22,857,142. Cain makes $20,833,333. Verlander makes $20,000,000. Wainwright makes $19,500,000. Buehrle makes $19,000,000. Beckett makes $17,000,000. Lincecum makes $17,000,000 So, if you go $125 mil over 6 years or $145 over 7 including the posting fee you're effectively paying him $21 mil a year. To me that's your top end and probably beyond it.

At the end of the day the Rangers ended up paying Darvish effectively $18.6 mil/season when you include the posting fee. Realistically, I think most teams are going to want Tanaka in the $17 mil range when you include the posting fee because most feel he's just not as good as Darvish is. People can say the Rangers got a discount on Darvish's contract because they are the only ones he could negotiate with but compared to the other top pitchers what they paid isn't that much of a discount for an unknown japanesse pitcher.

 

[nickofypres]

I really hate the Sox v. Cubs debates. I know, I know if I don't like them stay out of the threads they're in. But, come on, guys. Does it really matter?

 

[beckdawg]

I really hate the Sox v. Cubs debates. I know, I know if I don't like them stay out of the threads they're in. But, come on, guys. Does it really matter?

I wish the sox well so long as they aren't playing the cubs. I'd much rather see them win than say the red sox or yankees.

 

[SilenceS]

Besides Albert Bell or Frank Thomas! The White Sox can suck a dick! I mean that with all the respect in the world!

 

[nickofypres]

I wish the sox well so long as they aren't playing the cubs. I'd much rather see them win than say the red sox or yankees.

I feel the same about the Cubs. I am not from Chicago, but I have no spite for the Cubs. I hope they can win it for their fans someday.

 

[Boobaby1]

What's another $3 million?
If they landed him for $20 million per, people would say it's a great deal.
If they pay $23 million, people will say they went overboard and made a bad deal.

Do you want to march out another 95 loss team for the sake of $3 million?

Pay waht it takes. They made tons of $ last year. Spend a few bucks on him and their rebuilding plan could take a huge step forward.

Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding! Hey, somebody gets it.

And like I said in other posts before, he will make up far more than that 3 million in media, merchandising, and overall ticket sales. Trust me.

He will be a media magnet every 5th day in Chicago if he is signed, just as Darvish was in Texas, and Ichiro was in Seattle.

Quit worrying whether he will be an ACE or not. I saw a Pittsburgh team take the Cardinals down to the wire this year with no legit ACE.

I've also seen the Cardinals win a WS with Anthony Reyes (Who?), Jeff Weaver (Who?), and Jeff Suppan (Who?) spearheading their WS run. Not one was close to being a #2 on a good team.

Walk the walk if you want to be a winner, which we will soon find out how serious the Cubs are about doing just that.

 

[Boobaby1]

I wish the sox well so long as they aren't playing the cubs. I'd much rather see them win than say the red sox or yankees.

Unless they are playing the Cardinals, then I root for any of them.

 

[beckdawg]

And like I said in other posts before, he will make up far more than that 3 million in media, merchandising, and overall ticket sales. Trust me.

In fairness it's not $3 mil though if you're talking about the difference between $20 mil and $23 mil. It's probably $18-21 mil depending on the length of his deal. Also, $3 mil is a decent bench player. And even if they do make money back in merchandising that doesn't mean it filters into the front office's budget to that same extent. In other words, if they sell $3 million in jerseys from him that doesn't mean the front office has $3 mil more to spend.

Plus, he's not making $18-21 mil over 6-7 years. He would be making $138-$161 mil. Saying "it's just $3 mil" ignores the context. Hypothetically, if you can sign Garza to $16 mil Tanaka is very unlikely to be $7 mil/year better than him unless he turns into Darvish or unless Garza is just flat out bad/injured. Scouts project him as a solid 2 with potential. Garza is a solid 2. Even if Garza goes for $18 mil/year Tanaka isn't going to bring in an additional $5 mil to the front office budget.

You also say don't worry about him being an ace because other teams have won without them. True enough. But none of the non-ace's you listed were making top 5 pitcher money which is what Tanaka would be making at $23 mil/year. That's sort of the point. Because they didn't dump a ton of money into those pitchers they were able to spend else where and make the team better, namely paying Pujols, Carpenter, Rolen,and Edmonds

 

[Boobaby1]

In fairness it's not $3 mil though if you're talking about the difference between $20 mil and $23 mil. It's probably $18-21 mil depending on the length of his deal. Also, $3 mil is a decent bench player. And even if they do make money back in merchandising that doesn't mean it filters into the front office's budget to that same extent. In other words, if they sell $3 million in jerseys from him that doesn't mean the front office has $3 mil more to spend.

Plus, he's not making $18-21 mil over 6-7 years. He would be making $138-$161 mil. Saying "it's just $3 mil" ignores the context. Hypothetically, if you can sign Garza to $16 mil Tanaka isn't very unlikely to be $7 mil/year better than him unless he turns into Darvish or unless Garza is just flat out bad/injured. Scouts project him as a solid 2 with potential. Garza is a solid 2. Even if Garza goes for $18 mil/year Tanaka isn't going to bring in an additional $5 mil to the front office budget.

You also say don't worry about him being an ace because other teams have won without them. True enough. But none of the non-ace's you listed were making top 5 pitcher money which is what Tanaka would be making at $23 mil/year. That's sort of the point. Because they didn't dump a ton of money into those pitchers they were able to spend else where and make the team better, namely paying Pujols, Carpenter, Rolen,and Edmonds

Okay, we are going round and round obviously about the money issue, and if you don't think for a minute that he will bring in 5 million worth of revenue, well then we will have to agree to disagree. I don't know the exact figures, but logically, the revenue generated in merchandising and ticket sales is just one thing. What is the revenue generated by ESPN when they now cover a game by the most highly touted Japanese player in a while?. What is the money generated by Japanese audiences viewing the games he pitches? Ichiro was a media magnet in Seattle and Darvish is no slouch in Texas.

You also keep mentioning Garza and others. Have you heard that the Cubs are all in on Garza? Nope! Not one word. Not Santana, not Choo, nor Cano. Just Tanaka. Why is that?

They don't fit what the Cubs are doing and where they are going. Garza will be 32 approximately when the Cubs are competing and you are talking about paying 18 million for a pitcher on downside of his career.

Tanaka will be in his prime at 27-28 when they are ready to compete, and all he will do is speed this up faster and furthermore, show the fans and especially the team that they are going in a positive direction rather than just trading players away at the deadline for prospects. That would make a guy like Shark and anyone with an ounce of competitiveness a little more in tuned to what direction they are heading.

Again, if you are in on what the Cubs are doing, you should be backing what they are saying. They have said they will not be outbid. Do you believe them or not? Do you believe that they and the scouts know what they are doing or not?

The only way that this would backfire for the Cubs is injury of course (which could happen to any pitcher), or that the Cubs cannot muster any young talent as far as starting pitching to offset this contract which I highly doubt, because EVERY team in baseball has an ACE that came out or is coming out of their system if not more than one. Why should the Cubs be any different if Theo and Co. know what they are doing?

 

[beckdawg]

They don't fit what the Cubs are doing and where they are going. Garza will be 32 approximately when the Cubs are competing and you are talking about paying 18 million for a pitcher on downside of his career.

When I mention Garza I'm talking more philosophically than saying the cubs should sign him. As I've said numerous times, by all means go after Tanaka but if some team is going to give him $23+ mil then that doesn't mean you have to give him $24+ mil. My point is it's not a case of Tanaka or nothing. They have other options. And even if they choose to do nothing else in FA this season, there's next season and they will still have that money(even more in fact). What if Kershaw decides not to re-sign with LA for whatever reason? Would $25+ mil a year not be much better spent on him? Paying Tanaka substantially more than you think he is capable of performing is money you can't spend on other players. We don't know exactly what the Cubs think he is(eg #1/2). If they truly believe he's a #1 on the level of Kershaw and Verlander...etc then by all means pay him $25 mil. But if you believe the guy is only ever going to be a #2 don't pay him $25 mil because you don't have anything. That's how you end up with someone like Mark Buehrle making $19 mil a year for your team with a 4.15 ERA.

As for the revenue, as I said $5 mil in revenue isn't $5 mil in payroll for the cubs. That's not how it works. The cubs had $274 mil in revenue last year and only had $105 mil opening day payroll. The front office is getting roughly 1/3rd of the revenue the cubs make. So, realistically to cover that $5 mil difference he has to bring in $15 mil every year of his deal. As for TV, the revenue ESPN draws really doesn't matter because that's their revenue not the Cubs. And while higher ratings is something you can use in TV contract negotiations, I really don't see players having that big of an impact on the negotiations. They really can't be because the networks wont know for certain which players will be there long term and which wont. Take Miami as an example. If they had been negotiating TV rights when they went on their spending spree the networks couldn't have thought well we'll have Reyes, Buehrle and Bell as star power because less than a year later they were traded away. And regardless, Theo thinks the cubs will do really well in those tv contract negotiations anyways.

Regardless, I really don't see Theo getting in a bidding to win at any cost situation. He went through a very similar situation with Dice-K and that turned into a disaster. So, he knows exactly how bad things can go with hyped japanesse pitchers. I assume they will have a price they think he is worth and might go slightly above to win but nothing like $25 mil/year.