The 2013 Cubs are better than we think... (FanGraphs)

[zack54attack]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2013-cubs-better-than-we-think/

 

[brett05]

Great read

 

[The Bandit]

nice

 

[X]

Honestly, despite the amount of criticism I throw on the team, I agree w/ the article...the Cubs are a decent team. However, given the flack that Theo receives (partially for questionable moves, partially just for being Theo), "decent" won't cut it. Cubs need to get to the playoffs and actually make some noise before anyone buys into the team and the long-term vision. Yes, adding key free agents would help, but this last offseason and this next offseason don't look like the years to commit in that manner.

 

[The Bandit]

Honestly, despite the amount of criticism I throw on the team, I agree w/ the article...the Cubs are a decent team. However, given the flack that Theo receives (partially for questionable moves, partially just for being Theo), "decent" won't cut it. Cubs need to get to the playoffs and actually make some noise before anyone buys into the team and the long-term vision. Yes, adding key free agents would help, but this last offseason and this next offseason don't look like the years to commit in that manner.

Next offseason I think is gonna be the one that determines where we are gonna be, the core is starting to develop, and the farm is getting better, so we should be ready to move forward in the process. 2014 should be the first year of trying to really contend.

 

[patg006]

At -4.3 clutch wins, no one is even close to the Cubs in terms of underperformance by leverage. It’s not even just that they haven’t converted hits into runs, but that when they’ve scored those runs, they haven’t occurred at the right time to translate into wins.

They havent converted hits into runs.....so whats the point of this? Morale victory? "Hey good job, you can hit really well, and you got better stats than a bottom 5 team, you just havent translated it into wins."

Sorry, that isnt good enough for me. I dont want morale victories, I want to be in the goddamn playoffs.

So it seems like their solution should be incredibly fucking simple......find guys who can hit. A few legit bullpen guys couldnt hurt either, or is that too much to ask?

 

[X]

Next offseason I think is gonna be the one that determines where we are gonna be, the core is starting to develop, and the farm is getting better, so we should be ready to move forward in the process. 2014 should be the first year of trying to really contend.

What people tend to forget/overlook, is just how shitty the Cubs forecast was when Theo took over. Bad contracts w/ non-producing veterans, a new owner, ballpark reno up in the air, a poor farm system....we all wanted to believe he could turn it around in a cpl years, but that's really not very realistic. Next year will be year #3, and I believe we'll take positive steps, but probably won't make a huge splash in free agency (largely due to their not being key free agents worth giving big deals to)...but after the 2014 season, players like Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Chase Headley, Dustin Pedroia, Nyjer Morgan, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Clayton Kershaw, Jake Peavy, and several others are due to hit free agency. It's safe to assume a lot of these will sign extensions with their current teams, but I won't be surprised to see the Cubs in on a lot of these players two offseasons from now. The power hitters still aren't there, but I suppose we're hoping that the maturation of in-house players (Rizzo, Almora, Soler, etc.) can fill that void.

 

[The Bandit]

At -4.3 clutch wins, no one is even close to the Cubs in terms of underperformance by leverage. It’s not even just that they haven’t converted hits into runs, but that when they’ve scored those runs, they haven’t occurred at the right time to translate into wins.

They havent converted hits into runs.....so whats the point of this? Morale victory? "Hey good job, you can hit really well, and you got better stats than a bottom 5 team, you just havent translated it into wins."

Sorry, that isnt good enough for me. I dont want morale victories, I want to be in the goddamn playoffs.

So it seems like their solution should be incredibly fucking simple......find guys who can hit. A few legit bullpen guys couldnt hurt either, or is that too much to ask?

It's a matter of circumstance, basically we're better then our record says, no need to snap over it.

What people tend to forget/overlook, is just how shitty the Cubs forecast was when Theo took over. Bad contracts w/ non-producing veterans, a new owner, ballpark reno up in the air, a poor farm system....we all wanted to believe he could turn it around in a cpl years, but that's really not very realistic. Next year will be year #3, and I believe we'll take positive steps, but probably won't make a huge splash in free agency (largely due to their not being key free agents worth giving big deals to)...but after the 2014 season, players like Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Chase Headley, Dustin Pedroia, Nyjer Morgan, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Clayton Kershaw, Jake Peavy, and several others are due to hit free agency. It's safe to assume a lot of these will sign extensions with their current teams, but I won't be surprised to see the Cubs in on a lot of these players two offseasons from now. The power hitters still aren't there, but I suppose we're hoping that the maturation of in-house players (Rizzo, Almora, Soler, etc.) can fill that void.

Exactly, I doubt we even sniff Kershaw if Magic was to ever spend money that's where it's going. Headley would be nice to get to hopefully plug the black hole at 3rd, and honestly we are only maybe 1-2 decent starters, a few decent bats, and an actual bullpen away from being a "good" team. So we have come a long way the last 2 years.

 

[Boobaby1]

At -4.3 clutch wins, no one is even close to the Cubs in terms of underperformance by leverage. It’s not even just that they haven’t converted hits into runs, but that when they’ve scored those runs, they haven’t occurred at the right time to translate into wins.

They havent converted hits into runs.....so whats the point of this? Morale victory? "Hey good job, you can hit really well, and you got better stats than a bottom 5 team, you just havent translated it into wins."

Sorry, that isnt good enough for me. I dont want morale victories, I want to be in the goddamn playoffs.

So it seems like their solution should be incredibly fucking simple......find guys who can hit. A few legit bullpen guys couldnt hurt either, or is that too much to ask?

Not that they are elite bats like Cano, but nor would the contract or amount be.

The Cubs could add Choo, Michael Morse, and a short term starter in the area of Baker or Bronson Arroyo (take your pick), and be even less in payroll than they were this year including a raise to Shark, a re-sign of Garza, Chavez to play 3B and Valbuena stuck at 2B.

They could see what they might get in return for Dejesus, Feldman, and Barney at the deadline or put a package together package to see what prospects they net.

Just a cheap thought.

 

[mountsalami]

As mentioned before. The team was not built to win, only to stumble.

Sprinkling powdered sugar on the turd still makes it a turd.

There's a reason why they are where they are and none of it was addressed during the offseason last year or this one.

One turd for another.

The manager sucks balls more than the players.

One horrible decision after another. Dale's more to blame for the blown wins than the players who suck.

 

[KBisBack!]

You are what your record is, period.

The Cubs are a last place team and one of the worst teams in the NL.

 

[The Bandit]

Honestly, despite the amount of criticism I throw on the team, I agree w/ the article...the Cubs are a decent team. However, given the flack that Theo receives (partially for questionable moves, partially just for being Theo), "decent" won't cut it. Cubs need to get to the playoffs and actually make some noise before anyone buys into the team and the long-term vision. Yes, adding key free agents would help, but this last offseason and this next offseason don't look like the years to commit in that manner.

http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/showthread.php/20615-Cubs-Argument-thread-D3A-s-explainin-thread made me think of the good ol days, arguing with KB is nothing compared to D3A.

 

[patg006]

It's a matter of circumstance, basically we're better then our record says, no need to snap over it.

Me last night
"Bases loaded with no one out, this looks promising.."

Ground out
Strike out
Fly out

Thats why this thread is a farce...

But if some of you guys need morale victories to get through this, then have this one.

 

[nwfisch]

I'm sorry I hate those metrics that say a team is better than what they are.

Like Salami says, I believe you are what your record says you are.

I guess if I have to draw a positive is that there are more useful pieces that Theo acquired that I initially thought.

 

[mountsalami]

This Cubs team was built like one gigantic whiskey dick......

Half hard, mind is barely on the task at hand, and from the very beginning wasn't meant to finish strong.

 

[Flacco4Prez]

The Cubs are atrocious with runners in scoring position. The bullpen is atrocious all the time, and Edwin Jackson is terrible. That's why their record is what it is

 

[justaChifan]

How long before they compete?

 

[Boobaby1]

How long before they compete?

Some estimates are in 2015. I certainly don't see it before then unless they start making a couple of substantial upgrades at various positions. The most notable spots would be 2B, CF, RF, and the bullpen.

 

[KBisBack!]

Some estimates are in 2015. I certainly don't see it before then unless they start making a couple of substantial upgrades at various positions. The most notable spots would be 2B, CF, RF, and the bullpen.

Well if the target date is 2015 then the team will also need to address LF, 3B and SP since apparently the goal is to trade away Garza and Feldman and Baker are on one year deals and Villenueva is on a 2 year deal. That still leaves some glaring holes in the starting rotation.

So basically they need notable upgrades still at most of the roster to become competitive by 2015.

But supposedly there is being great progress made because they have one more top 100 prospect. Yippee.

 

[Boobaby1]

Well if the target date is 2015 then the team will also need to address LF, 3B and SP since apparently the goal is to trade away Garza and Feldman and Baker are on one year deals and Villenueva is on a 2 year deal. That still leaves some glaring holes in the starting rotation.

So basically they need notable upgrades still at most of the roster to become competitive by 2015.

But supposedly there is being great progress made because they have one more top 100 prospect. Yippee.

Well I gave a cheap alternative for the 2014 season IF they wanted to make some moves. Yes I am aware that in 2015, players like Soriano, and some pitchers won't be here and I am hoping that Shark and Garza are locked up.

I feel and I have read enough of your posts too that you have to upgrade position by position. Not saying in one year as you well know and I know you agree on this point too, but Choo for example would be a far superior upgrade to Dejesus. Better runner, massive OBP (which the Cubs need), better power and better average. The Cubs could lock him up for a while a then as you are also aware, move on to the next issue at hand whatever it may be.

To me, coupled with replenishing of the farm which is also needed, that speaks volumes in the stride of moving forward.

Like I said, someone like Michael Morse would also be an alternative and a power hitter tied to a modest contract that wouldn't hinder the Cubs progression in any way, and give them an additional power bat.

The pitching staff is going to be in my thinking for Theo & Co. a solid 3 (not stellar) at the top of the rotation, and then they will juggle pitchers 4 and 5 like the Baker's, Feldman's, and maybe Arroyo's of the world and then possibly flip them until hopeful pitchers like Appel/Gray and others come through the ranks.

Soler is going to have to come a long way (not that he can't) by 2015 to replace Soriano, and that's why you need players like Choo or whomever to be established already, and get that much needed evenflo in length of contracts throughout the Cubs team.

That was a big downfall during Hendry's tenure and why to me was part of the reason the Cardinals endured a lot of success. It seems that not only did the Cardinals have an influx of players to use in the organization when needed, but contracts like Carpenter and Wainright, Holliday, Molina, and Pujols for example were never expiring at or near the same time. They may have lost one, but it's a lot easier to replace one of those contracts, than it is to replace 3 or 4 at the same time.

The Cubs had Dempster, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Zambrano and others coming off of the books in roughly a 2 year window coupled with a change of management. Like it or not, there are some marquee names on that list that are not easy to replace. Hell, it took one top Cubs pitching prospect to get a top positional prospect from the Padres, and there were great risks in doing that.

Sorry to be all over the board on this, just rambling on...