The 2013 Cubs are better than we think... (FanGraphs)

[kchicub08]

I am not anti- sabermetrics. But they certainly only provide a look, not the be all end all.

Results are. 18-28 is what they are.

Mitch Williams has the best view on saber. If you looked at his WHIP and other related stats, those numbers would spell out 25 career saves not 175.

 

[AmericanFlyer1]

They are they record. They are exactly what Theo and Co. have built. They are exactly one of the worst teams in the league. They certainly aren't better than their record.

Any moron can write a blog and have an opinion. Doesn't make it factual. What is a fact is a team's Win/Loss record.

It really is that simple.

If Theo wanted to win more games and get a lot closer, free agency the last two years had some decent-awesome players available. He went with the garbage heap instead. He build this team to lose and lose now.

And he is succeeding. (Probably not as well as he would like. He's like that chic owner in Major League..."I didn't think we would win 18 games all year!"

The only other fact is that he has wasted 2 years now at the Major League level.

 

[X]

They are they record. They are exactly what Theo and Co. have built. They are exactly one of the worst teams in the league. They certainly aren't better than their record.

Any moron can write a blog and have an opinion. Doesn't make it factual. What is a fact is a team's Win/Loss record.

It really is that simple.

If Theo wanted to win more games and get a lot closer, free agency the last two years had some decent-awesome players available. He went with the garbage heap instead. He build this team to lose and lose now.

And he is succeeding. (Probably not as well as he would like. He's like that chic owner in Major League..."I didn't think we would win 18 games all year!"

The only other fact is that he has wasted 2 years now at the Major League level.

The bolded part is the annoying part. The last two years of FA has been "meh" at best. Who did you want the Cubs to go after? Hamilton? He's 32, just signed a 5 yr/$133M deal, and is batting a solid .220. The year before? Yeah, I suppose we could've thrown a couple trillion dollars at him -- but with Rizzo waiting in the wings, 1B wasn't the greatest spot to invest a whole lot of money in. Elite players are getting locked up before hitting FA. Signing the big names for the sake of signing a big name does no more to help the team than signing guys on one-year fliers and flipping them for 'spects. We're just now getting out of the ridiculous contracts of Z, Sori, etc...why would anyone want to be in that position again in 5 years?

 

[patg006]

The bolded part is the annoying part. The last two years of FA has been "meh" at best. Who did you want the Cubs to go after? Hamilton? He's 32, just signed a 5 yr/$133M deal, and is batting a solid .220. The year before? Yeah, I suppose we could've thrown a couple trillion dollars at him -- but with Rizzo waiting in the wings, 1B wasn't the greatest spot to invest a whole lot of money in. Elite players are getting locked up before hitting FA. Signing the big names for the sake of signing a big name does no more to help the team than signing guys on one-year fliers and flipping them for 'spects. We're just now getting out of the ridiculous contracts of Z, Sori, etc...why would anyone want to be in that position again in 5 years?

If you honestly think Josh Hamilton is going to be a complete bust his entire contract, then you're an idiot.....the eye sees what it wants to see, and right now you're ignoring prior, major success in 4 out of the last 6 years (the other two in 2007 and 2009 he didnt play more than 90 games either season) only to see a span of 2 months. Willrust just tried to do the same thing with Luke Hochevar, you're judging a minuscule sample size and determining it fact for the sake of arguing, and you look like a fool when you do.

I only have one question. What was Albert Pujols' BA last year at this time? Then go ahead and remind me what he finished with.

Cant help myself, heres another--Did you think Aramis Ramirez was when he sucked in April and May when he was the guy who was red hot June, July, and August?

Soriano is not a ridiculous contract, what would be the going price of a FA coming off 30 HR and 100 RBI hitting FA at 30 years old right now?

And once again, we've been over this now for the millionth time; Eric Chavez at 3rd and Valbuena at 2nd. The lineup would look a little less shitty with RISP. Nick Swisher could have helped this line up, but once again, for the millionth time--adding quality hitting in free agency doesnt fit certain people's agendas.

 

[Freakyslow15]

Soriano is not a ridiculous contract, what would be the going price of a FA coming off 30 HR and 100 RBI hitting FA at 30 years old right now?

Soriano is a good ways away from 30 years old lol. Josh Willingham (MIN) makes 7 million at 34 this year. Soriano makes 18 million at (an alleged) 37.

 

[kchicub08]

Regardless of anyone's opinion of Soriano, what great prospect has this albatross of a contract been blocking?

On a list of Problems with the Cubs, Soriano would fall at the bottom.

 

[Willrust]

If you honestly think Josh Hamilton is going to be a complete bust his entire contract, then you're an idiot.....the eye sees what it wants to see, and right now you're ignoring prior, major success in 4 out of the last 6 years (the other two in 2007 and 2009 he didnt play more than 90 games either season) only to see a span of 2 months.

From June 2012 to now, Josh Hamilton has had 1 very good month (August 2012). Other than that 1 month he has been a .230/.290/.430 hitter:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=hamiljo03&year=2012&t=b

Do you still say that a 5 month period is a small sample size?

I only have one question. What was Albert Pujols' BA last year at this time? Then go ahead and remind me what he finished with.

Your answer is the lowest AVG, OBP & SLG percentages in his entire career; well, at least until this year.

Soriano is not a ridiculous contract, what would be the going price of a FA coming off 30 HR and 100 RBI hitting FA at 30 years old right now?

Why not ask the Dodgers about that...{cough} Andre Ethier {cough}. Weren't there reports that the Cubs outbid themselves by nearly 30M on the Soriano contract?

Eric Chavez at 3rd

Giving regular starts at 3B to a guy that had 737 AB in 5 years, sure doesn't appear to be a recipe for success or competitiveness to me and should not be for someone preaching sample sizes.

 

[KBisBack!]

Do you still say that a 5 month period is a small sample size?

Well the last three months of last year and first month of this season for Rizzo was too small a sample size.

Whatever fits your agenda.

Your answer is the lowest AVG, OBP & SLG percentages in his entire career; well, at least until this year.

Which was still the 4th highest OPS with at least 450 AB.

So even with it being the 'worst' of his career, still a hugely productive season.

Again, doesn't fit your agenda.

Giving regular starts at 3B to a guy that had 737 AB in 5 years, sure doesn't appear to be a recipe for success or competitiveness to me and should not be for someone preaching sample sizes.

But giving regular starts at 3B to Ian Stewart is a better plan?

Seriously, how can one person be so consistently dumb about baseball?

 

[Willrust]

Well the last three months of last year and first month of this season for Rizzo was too small a sample size.

Whatever fits your agenda.

Rizzo had 1 bad month last year (August) and had 2 solid months last year (July & September). Rizzo had a bad batting average in April, but an OPS of nearly .850 in April and has an OPS over .800 for 2013. You are the one that somehow thinks that Rizzo's second half last year and April this year was bad, although it wasn't, because it fits your agenda.

Which was still the 4th highest OPS with at least 450 AB.

So even with it being the 'worst' of his career, still a hugely productive season.

Compare apples to apples or in this case, Pujols to Pujols. The Angels are not paying Albert Pujols to outproduce player X in OPS, they are paying him to produce numbers similar to what he had through his career. So far, he has failed to produce his average career numbers while a member of the Angels. Since you brought it up, why not tell everyone who was #3 for 1B, just ahead of Mr. Pujols, in OPS for 2012.

But giving regular starts at 3B to Ian Stewart is a better plan?

Seriously, how can one person be so consistently dumb about baseball?

I know, how could someone be so consistently dumb to baseball happenings?

12/05/12:
http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/stor...ger-agrees-deal-chicago-white-sox-source-says

12/05/12:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8717495/eric-chavez-arizona-diamondbacks-agree-contract-sources

12/06/12:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/07/s...yankees-offer-kevin-youkilis-a-deal.html?_r=0

12/06/12:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/12/06/report-cubs-are-going-to-re-sign-ian-stewart/

Only after the Cubs lost out on Jeff Keppinger, Eric Chavez and likely Kevin Youkilis did they resign Ian Stewart...to a non-guaranteed contract...and after they tendered a contract to Luis Valbuena! They never planned to hand over the 3B job to Ian Stewart in 2013, but I am guessing you will continue to believe that despite all of the evidence to the contrary.

[video=youtube;eVmfziT8YIM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVmfziT8YIM[/video]

 

[KBisBack!]

You are the one that somehow thinks that Rizzo's second half last year and April this year was bad, although it wasn't, because it fits your agenda.

Nope. Not an agenda. Facts.

OPS post All Star Game last year (you know, what is called the second half of the season) was .764 which ranked 19th out of 24 MLB 1B that had at least 250 PA.

Sorry, that is a straight fact.

Maybe you think ranking 19th out of 24 was good, but it wasn't.

Compare apples to apples or in this case, Pujols to Pujols. The Angels are not paying Albert Pujols to outproduce player X in OPS, they are paying him to produce numbers similar to what he had through his career. So far, he has failed to produce his average career numbers while a member of the Angels. Since you brought it up, why not tell everyone who was #3 for 1B, just ahead of Mr. Pujols, in OPS for 2012.

No they are not paying him to produce similar numbers to what he had through his career.

They are smart enough to know he isn't at his peak.

He is being paid to continue to be one of the top producing 1B in the game, which he was last year and to help them get the monster local TV deal that they got.

Only after the Cubs lost out on Jeff Keppinger, Eric Chavez and likely Kevin Youkilis did they resign Ian Stewart...to a non-guaranteed contract...and after they tendered a contract to Luis Valbuena! They never planned to hand over the 3B job to Ian Stewart in 2013, but I am guessing you will continue to believe that despite all of the evidence to the contrary.

They sure handed him the job in 2012 though didn't they?

Whoops.

 

[Boobaby1]

Soriano is a good ways away from 30 years old lol. Josh Willingham (MIN) makes 7 million at 34 this year. Soriano makes 18 million at (an alleged) 37.

Had Josh Willingham had the year Soriano had before hitting free agency, I am sure that number would have at least doubled. Furthermore, the Cubs could have had Josh Willingham instead of Dejesus if they wanted, but they didn't.

Another power bat behind Rizzo would look good in my opinion.

 

[Boobaby1]

Regardless of anyone's opinion of Soriano, what great prospect has this albatross of a contract been blocking?

On a list of Problems with the Cubs, Soriano would fall at the bottom.

True! It's not as if Baker and E-Jackson are producing any better for the money spent, but there is very little said about that.

 

[Willrust]

J.F.C.

You piss and moan about sample sizes and then utilize 1 months worth of stats to justify a players second half stats. Tsk, Tsk.

Anthony Rizzo 2012 (AVG/OBP/SLG):

July: .330/.375/.567
August: .252/.300/.342
Sept: .281/.359/.474

Rizzo 2013:

April: .224/.315/.531
May: .293/.326/.439

No they are not paying him to produce similar numbers to what he had through his career.

They are smart enough to know he isn't at his peak.

He is being paid to continue to be one of the top producing 1B in the game

You are saying that Albert Pujols, was given the largest 1B contract in the history of baseball to be a top 5 OPS producer for that specific position; and not to perform equal to his career numbers? :rolling:

I though that one was good then:

and to help them get the monster local TV deal that they got.

The Angels landed Pujols because they signed the television deal, not the other-way around:
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/08/sports/la-sp-angels-fox-tv-20111209

They sure handed him the job in 2012 though didn't they?

We were discussing 2013, and the Cubs apparently learned from their mistake. Perhaps you should take a cue?

[video=youtube;eVmfziT8YIM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=eVmfziT8YIM[/video]

 

[Willrust]

True! It's not as if Baker and E-Jackson are producing any better for the money spent, but there is very little said about that.

Remind us, how was Soriano's production in 2009, 2010 & 2011?

 

[KBisBack!]

J.F.C.

You piss and moan about sample sizes and then utilize 1 months worth of stats to justify a players second half stats. Tsk, Tsk.

Wow, you are really really dumb.

I am using the ENTIRE second half. All of them.

Not just one month.

Keep trying little whiny strawman.

You are saying that Albert Pujols, was given the largest 1B contract in the history of baseball to be a top 5 OPS producer for that specific position; and not to perform equal to his career numbers? :rolling:

Yeah.

There was not one person in the LA Angels front office that expected to get the same production from Pujols now then when he was in his prime.

Your point, as usual, is really dumb.

The Angels landed Pujols because they signed the television deal, not the other-way around:
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/08/sports/la-sp-angels-fox-tv-20111209

The TV deal and the signings of Pujols and Wilson were all announced at almost the same time, and in fact the signings of Pujols and Wilson were announced BEFORE the TV deal was announced.

http://www.baseballnation.com/2011/12/20/2650211/los-angeles-angels-fox-sports-arte-moreno

Seriously, doesn't it get old being publicly proven wrong time and time and time again?

We were discussing 2013, and the Cubs apparently learned from their mistake. Perhaps you should take a cue?

Actually no, the topic was handing 3B over to an 'unworthy' player. The year doesn't matter.

Try again Strawman.

 

[Willrust]

Wow, you are really really dumb.

I am using the ENTIRE second half. All of them.

Not just one month.

The stats are right there in your face! 1 bad month, that's it. Do you need a call from Frank Rizzo on this...Jerky?

There was not one person in the LA Angels front office that expected to get the same production from Pujols now then when he was in his prime.

Your point, as usual, is really dumb.

READ!!! Don't focus on his prime (because nobody but you is focused on his prime), but a rational person would expect him to be able to hit right around his 10 YEAR AVERAGE, not to have the worst statistical season of his entire career. When you sign Albert Pujols, you expect to get Albert Pujols production; ie the best in all of baseball and not just a top 5 first baseman. You don't expect the guy that replaced him in St. Louis to outproduce him, which is exactly what Allen Craig did utilizing your OPS stat.

The TV deal and the signings of Pujols and Wilson were all announced at almost the same time, and in fact the signings of Pujols and Wilson were announced BEFORE the TV deal was announced.

The Angels were working on that television deal in October, long before signing Pujols; and the numbers discussed in that deal allowed them the leverage to go ahead and do the deal with Pujols.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dod...ot-dodgers-close-to-new-tv-deal-with-fox.html

Seriously, doesn't it get old being publicly proven wrong time and time and time again?

You tell me?

Actually no, the topic was handing 3B over to an 'unworthy' player. The year doesn't matter.

Pat mentioned signing Eric Chavez in 2013. When the point was made that signing Eric Chavez in 2013 despite having just over 700AB in 5 major league season, you changed the topic to the decision to trade for Ian Stewart in 2012. That is a strawman argument. If you don't know what the topic is, perhaps you should stay away from discussion, m'kay.

 

[mountsalami]

Soriano is a good ways away from 30 years old lol. Josh Willingham (MIN) makes 7 million at 34 this year. Soriano makes 18 million at (an alleged) 37.

Dumb.

 

[KBisBack!]

The stats are right there in your face! 1 bad month, that's it.?

Once again, his overall production for the second half of last year puts him near the bottom of all major league 1B for that time period.

End of story. There is no argument against it. Like you said the stats are right there in your face.

As usual you want to turn it into one of your strawman semantic battles cause you can't keep up with the people who are smarter than you are.

READ!!! Don't focus on his prime (because nobody but you is focused on his prime), but a rational person would expect him to be able to hit right around his 10 YEAR AVERAGE, not to have the worst statistical season of his entire career. When you sign Albert Pujols, you expect to get Albert Pujols production; ie the best in all of baseball and not just a top 5 first baseman. You don't expect the guy that replaced him in St. Louis to outproduce him, which is exactly what Allen Craig did utilizing your OPS stat.

Only you would be dumb enough to criticize a player who finished top 5 in OPS and WAR at his position while defending moves like Ian Stewart and Chris Volstad as being good.

The Angels were working on that television deal in October, long before signing Pujols; and the numbers discussed in that deal allowed them the leverage to go ahead and do the deal with Pujols.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dod...ot-dodgers-close-to-new-tv-deal-with-fox.html

Great. They were talking about it, big deal.

They could have been talking about getting less money than they ended up getting and when the Angels went out and added legitimate star players, the price of the deal went WAY up.

Doesn't change the FACT that the deals for Pujols and Wilson will announced BEFORE the TV deal.

Pat mentioned signing Eric Chavez in 2013. When the point was made that signing Eric Chavez in 2013 despite having just over 700AB in 5 major league season, you changed the topic to the decision to trade for Ian Stewart in 2012. That is a strawman argument. If you don't know what the topic is, perhaps you should stay away from discussion, m'kay.

This is just more of your strawman, semantic bullshit you drag every single thread into cause you are getting crushed by people smarter than you.

The topic was handing 3B over to an 'unworthy' player, not what season it was.

So you are basically trying to say that it was dumb to do it in 2013 but ok to do it in 2012 simply because YOU hadn't mentioned that season??

Fucking stupid.

Or par for the course with you.

 

[patg006]

Pat mentioned signing Eric Chavez in 2013. When the point was made that signing Eric Chavez in 2013 despite having just over 700AB in 5 major league season, you changed the topic to the decision to trade for Ian Stewart in 2012. That is a strawman argument. If you don't know what the topic is, perhaps you should stay away from discussion, m'kay.

I mentioned signing Eric Chavez because he's a career .270 hitter who's a tenfold upgrade over what we had post-Aramis. This argument is simple.

You want to nitpick sample sizes? Go ahead. Hochevar's 16 innings isnt enough to me. Pujols had a bad year, but would I take his production last year on this team? **** yes. Do I think the poster Vick or whomever told me "how about that Josh Hamilton signing, he really sucks right now" is Special person basing a dumbass argument on a slow, 2 month start I could easily strawman with the annointed Anthony Rizzo back on him? Yes again.

Chavez would have given the cubs the best chance to win, best bat, and more muscle in the line up. Thats a fact. I dont give a shit about 700 AB in past 5 seasons. He's been bit by the injury bug. You dont think thats a sample size, what about his 7-8 years before those 5? Proven player bopping over 30 HR and over 100 RBI.

Funny how nobody is mentioning Chavez's current .337/.389/.567 averages this year. On pace for 20 HR, 30 doubles, and 80 RBI. For the astoundingly absurd price of 4 million dollars this year.

Instead I'm graced with Brent Lillebridge and Valbuena; whom intrigued me right away, but right now is cooling off his hot start.

 

[patg006]

Also will,

I could point out with you and this, your parameters of consistency keep changing with different arguments, which is part of the reason why I think youre wrong.

You've tried to sell me that 16 RIGHT NOW innings is enough to make someone a damn good reliever, but Eric chavez isnt consistent enough based on the last 5 years, not what hes doing now either.

Food for thought...