The beginning of the.....The beginning

[FirstTimer]

Darwin Barney can stay home.

 

[Boobaby1]

Darwin Barney can stay home.

Mr. Mom?

 

[CSF77]

Projecting it:
(For L/R Balance)

LF: Open
CF: Alcantara SH
RF: Soler (AA) RH
3B: Bryant (AAA) RH
SS: Castro RH
2B: Baez (AAA) RH
1B: Rizzo LH
C: Schwarber(A) LH

Gives 3 LH hitters and 4 RH hitter normally. Then you figure in Russell(AA), Almora(A+) and Billy McKinney(A+)

They are going to have to make some trades down the road. There is no way they are going to be able to work this.

 

[dabynsky]

Projecting it:
(For L/R Balance)

LF: Open
CF: Alcantara SH
RF: Soler (AA) RH
3B: Bryant (AAA) RH
SS: Castro RH
2B: Baez (AAA) RH
1B: Rizzo LH
C: Schwarber(A) LH

Gives 3 LH hitters and 4 RH hitter normally. Then you figure in Russell(AA), Almora(A+) and Billy McKinney(A+)

They are going to have to make some trades down the road. There is no way they are going to be able to work this.

The easy solution is not all of them will make it. But if by some miracle the vast majority do then you've got the best trade chip in young, cheap, mlb talent.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Is Schwarber going to get a chance to catch?

 

[beckdawg]

Projecting it:
(For L/R Balance)

LF: Open
CF: Alcantara SH
RF: Soler (AA) RH
3B: Bryant (AAA) RH
SS: Castro RH
2B: Baez (AAA) RH
1B: Rizzo LH
C: Schwarber(A) LH

Gives 3 LH hitters and 4 RH hitter normally. Then you figure in Russell(AA), Almora(A+) and Billy McKinney(A+)

They are going to have to make some trades down the road. There is no way they are going to be able to work this.

There's likely about 0 chance Schwarber stays at catcher. Think of it this way, if Baez, Alcantara, and numerous others who we have mentioned have stayed at their drafted position until AA/AAA and Schwarber is already seeing time in LF what's that suggest about their hopes of him seeing time at C in the majors? The other problem i have with this sort of line up is who's batting 1/2? Soler and Alcantara? Because you're not batting Bryant, Baez and Rizzo there. Ideally, you probably want Bryant with his great walk rate #3, Rizzo #4 to break up R/L and Baez 5th. Schwarber definitely isn't batting 1/2 and likely should be 6th or higher but given the line up that's tough. Castro with his poor on base isn't the best option for 1/2. Ideally, maybe you'd bat him 5/6 on a different team but now you're talking about him 7th. Castillo likely the actual catcher is probably 8th.

I get what Dabs is saying about not everyone making it too. However, whomever does make it you're likely running into these issues. I'm not sure Almora is going to be a 1/2 hitter either. If he can get his walk rate up he'd be a pretty decent one but that doesn't always happen. Soler is probably more of a 3-5 hitter on most teams but given the names this team has with power, I'd suggest him a 6/7 hitter. But then you start to run out of spots after the top of the order.

Incidentally, I think Alcantara is best as a 2 hitter not lead off because he hits so many doubles/triples that if you put someone with really high OBP and really nothing else in front of him they are likely to score a lot. Russell *might* be ok as a #2 hitter. If Russell is Barry Larkin with power, Larkin hit out of the 3 hole the majority of his career(35.9%) with #2 being(32.6%) and #1 being 19.9%.

Overall, I frankly think the cubs have a lot of pieces that really don't fit together. They have far too many 3-5 hitters. You could argue Soler, Schwarber, Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, Castro(5 on a lot of teams) and Russell all would best be 3-5 hitters. So, perhaps the real plan is to take the 3-4 of the best of them and pair with someone like Alcantara at #2 and trade some of the rest for pitching and a prototypical lead off hitter. Assuming you take Alcantara, <insert trade lead off hitter>, 4 guys from that, and Castillo that gives you 7 positional players needing to fill one slot.

 

[CSF77]

The easy solution is not all of them will make it. But if by some miracle the vast majority do then you've got the best trade chip in young, cheap, mlb talent.

I agree. I would hold the deck until it fills up then start dealing the excess depending on who gets the best return.

If I had to judge it early:
Alcantara should be a good major league player.
Bryant all star.
Baez iffy still.

Soler if healthy looks scary
Russell not sure yet. Seems like he has some development to go through.

Almora waiting to be disappointed. At best he ends up a solid player but not a all star.
McKinnley is young for A+ but still another 1st round pick. I'd wait and see with him.

Schwarber IMO they need to move him up to Daytona and see if his numbers hold. I would make him a catcher full time with the surplus happening now.


Getting into 2015:

Who do they retain:
Valbuena 2 years of control: .251/.334/.417
Ruggiano 2 years also .282/.356/.451

Those 2 I would keep. Valbuena has played SS/2B/3B. He makes a good UI.
Ruggiano has played all 3 OF spots. Another keeper for the bench.

F/A's:
Melky Cabrera (30)
Delmon Young (29)
Colby Rasmus (28)
Nick Markakis (31) – $17.5MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Norichika Aoki (33)

Ya know thinking it over I wouldn't mind if they signed Norichika Aoki.
Career: .283/.326/.324 57 SB.

So thinking of a line up then.

Aoki RF leading off
Alcantara hitting #2. most likely in CF.
Rizzo #3 1B
Bryant #4 3B
Castro #5 SS
Baez #6 2B
(Now I would drop Rizzo to 4. Running 3 RH in a row not really ideal)

IDK if I would go after Colby Rasmus for LF. .211/.268/.454 now. So his value is really low but he has hit 20+ HR's the last 2 years and is at 12 right now. For a 7 hitter he might not be that bad of a choice.

So seeing a D set up:
LF: Rasmus
CF: Alcantara
RF: Aoki

Pretty solid range

IF:
3B: Bryant
SS: Castro
2B: Baez
1B: Rizzo

That is where the RBI production is going to come from.

It might be a good direction to go next year.

 

[CSF77]

There's likely about 0 chance Schwarber stays at catcher. Think of it this way, if Baez, Alcantara, and numerous others who we have mentioned have stayed at their drafted position until AA/AAA and Schwarber is already seeing time in LF what's that suggest about their hopes of him seeing time at C in the majors? The other problem i have with this sort of line up is who's batting 1/2? Soler and Alcantara? Because you're not batting Bryant, Baez and Rizzo there. Ideally, you probably want Bryant with his great walk rate #3, Rizzo #4 to break up R/L and Baez 5th. Schwarber definitely isn't batting 1/2 and likely should be 6th or higher but given the line up that's tough. Castro with his poor on base isn't the best option for 1/2. Ideally, maybe you'd bat him 5/6 on a different team but now you're talking about him 7th. Castillo likely the actual catcher is probably 8th. E]

Lets not worry about players in A ball. It is too early in his development to call him out.

Incidentally, I think Alcantara is best as a 2 hitter not lead off because he hits so many doubles/triples that if you put someone with really high OBP and really nothing else in front of him they are likely to score a lot. Russell *might* be ok as a #2 hitter. If Russell is Barry Larkin with power, Larkin hit out of the 3 hole the majority of his career(35.9%) with #2 being(32.6%) and #1 being 19.9%.

I agree. That is why I was looking at Aoki.
Bonifacio BB rate: 199 BB in 2303 carrer AB's. 8.6% rate
Aoki: 119 BB in 1379 career AB's 8.6%
Wash on the 2.
Career OBA: Aoki .350 Bonifacio .320

This year Bonifacio .320 OBA Aoki .326 OBA

Fact Aoki plays RF and Schierholtz is gone it gives him the edge. Not to mention just in OBA you pick Aoki.

 

[SilenceS]

Whoa, they have to many 3-5 hitters? Who gives a shit. I have said this before and I will say it again. if Baez and Bryant make it, I would love for Rizzo to bat second. He isnt a base clogger and his OBP would play great. There is a new age of thinking that your best hitter should bat 2nd. I dont know if the Cubs prescribed to this, but it seems like this is a trend that is getting going. I dont give a shit about small ball or stealing bases when the most important thing is to get guys on base for the incredible power the Cubs have. The Cubs have legit two 40 plus homer potential guys. 30 plus homer guy in Soler. Add in Schwarber that will bring big power and Volgelbach. Then add in Rizzo that is a 30 to 40 home run guy in his prime. Castro looks like he can stay around 20 homeruns a year before its done and also have Russll that projects to 20 homers. The Cubs have ton of power. Speed is not this huge thing going forward because if the Cubs succeed it wont be them playing small ball. I guarantee that. Some wont make it and some will be traded, but the power bats are extremely deep. No other team in the league has the kind of power our minors have and its not even really that close.

 

[theberserkfury]

Whoa, they have to many 3-5 hitters? Who gives a shit. I have said this before and I will say it again. if Baez and Bryant make it, I would love for Rizzo to bat second. He isnt a base clogger and his OBP would play great. There is a new age of thinking that your best hitter should bat 2nd. I dont know if the Cubs prescribed to this, but it seems like this is a trend that is getting going. I dont give a shit about small ball or stealing bases when the most important thing is to get guys on base for the incredible power the Cubs have. The Cubs have legit two 40 plus homer potential guys. 30 plus homer guy in Soler. Add in Schwarber that will bring big power and Volgelbach. Then add in Rizzo that is a 30 to 40 home run guy in his prime. Castro looks like he can stay around 20 homeruns a year before its done and also have Russll that projects to 20 homers. The Cubs have ton of power. Speed is not this huge thing going forward because if the Cubs succeed it wont be them playing small ball. I guarantee that. Some wont make it and some will be traded, but the power bats are extremely deep. No other team in the league has the kind of power our minors have and its not even really that close.

I tend to agree... I think most people would be content to have a lineup with 8 Albert Pujols in his prime even though he wouldn't be considered a prototypical 1 or 2 hitter...

If you have table-setting guys, cool... but if you have a team full of big boppers, why is that a problem?

I think we're used to just settling for the table-setters because you can never have a team full of power bats...

 

[SilenceS]

I tend to agree... I think most people would be content to have a lineup with 8 Albert Pujols in his prime even though he wouldn't be considered a prototypical 1 or 2 hitter...

If you have table-setting guys, cool... but if you have a team full of big boppers, why is that a problem?

I think we're used to just settling for the table-setters because you can never have a team full of power bats...

Its not bad if your team has to win that way. If the Cubs start winning with these prospects it just wont be because of speed.

 

[chibears55]

Its not bad if your team has to win that way. If the Cubs start winning with these prospects it just wont be because of speed.

I wouldn't say they wouldn't have speed. Just may not be the 30+ SB speed but baez Alcantara russell castro almora are all capable of stealing 15+ bases, Almora and Alcantara may get you closer to the 30 +.. and their all fast base runners..

Of this group
Alcantara and Almora are your leadoff types
You can go with
Alcantara Baez and Russell as you no. 2 hitters

 

[SilenceS]

I wouldn't say they wouldn't have speed. Just may not be the 30+ SB speed but baez Alcantara russell castro almora are all capable of stealing 15+ bases, Almora and Alcantara may get you closer to the 30 +.. and their all fast base runners..

Of this group
Alcantara and Almora are your leadoff types
You can go with
Alcantara Baez and Russell as you no. 2 hitters

Baez has to much power and not enough OBP for 2. Russell and Alcatara yes, but Im with Dabs and dont think he will ever have a high OBP.

 

[beckdawg]

Whoa, they have to many 3-5 hitters? Who gives a shit. I have said this before and I will say it again. if Baez and Bryant make it, I would love for Rizzo to bat second. He isnt a base clogger and his OBP would play great. There is a new age of thinking that your best hitter should bat 2nd. I dont know if the Cubs prescribed to this, but it seems like this is a trend that is getting going. I dont give a shit about small ball or stealing bases when the most important thing is to get guys on base for the incredible power the Cubs have. The Cubs have legit two 40 plus homer potential guys. 30 plus homer guy in Soler. Add in Schwarber that will bring big power and Volgelbach. Then add in Rizzo that is a 30 to 40 home run guy in his prime. Castro looks like he can stay around 20 homeruns a year before its done and also have Russll that projects to 20 homers. The Cubs have ton of power. Speed is not this huge thing going forward because if the Cubs succeed it wont be them playing small ball. I guarantee that. Some wont make it and some will be traded, but the power bats are extremely deep. No other team in the league has the kind of power our minors have and its not even really that close.

The problem with this is it is quite reliant on home runs to score. The reason speedy type players typically are put high in the line up is because they often get doubles/triples or can steal bases to put players in scoring position. A guy on second base dramatically increases scoring odds. I suppose it's possible if some of the guys are big doubles guys. Off hand I don't know for sure of the players who that's true for. I know Alcantara and Russell are big in that regard. Other than that without looking up stats I don't particularly know though I had looked up Bryant/Baez for this at one time as a comparison to Alcantara in that prospect thread I did . IIRC, both were relatively average in that regard when you factor in they were often destroying pitching that clearly wasn't as advanced as they were.

Essentially the problem becomes this. A great home run hitter gets 35 in 700 PAs. So, if you end up relying on singles and walks it's much more difficult to score because obviously not many people hit over .270 these days and anymore a .330 on base is average. So, if one player gets a hit even with nobody out you're talking about one player on average will get on base in the next 3 outs and unless that is an extra base hit they aren't scoring. Also, as we saw in today's game a player like Alcantara can go from second to home on certain hits to the OF where as that's not happening with Rizzo. Additionally, I question the concept even more in the playoffs where you're much more likely to see higher quality pitching overall and thus average/OBP will drop. Perhaps you can argue that the cubs prospects are more than .270/.330 hitters but at this point that seems a bit presumptuous.

I'm all for questioning the norm but teams have long structured lineups a certain way because frankly it works. Whether or not it's the best/only way is obviously another discussion but I feel like if you're going to rock the boat you sort of need to prove the concept first.

 

[WindyCity]

Barney has pretty much gotten way more major league time than he should have so I do not feel bad moving him to the bench.

 

[beckdawg]

So early returns on the short stint for Alcantara at 2B defensively have been pretty positive. His +/- runs saved is at 2 as is his total runs saved. He's made 3 plays on 4 balls in his zone and 4 plays on balls outside his zone. The sample size is ridiculously small but he's some what comparable to Brandon Phillips if that sort of numbers continue. Phillips is 2 runs +/- and 3 total runs saved on the year with a .784 revised zone rating vs the .750 Alcantara has. Obviously that's lower but we're talking about 1 play not made costing him .250. Additionally, the fact he already has 4 plays on balls outside the zone tells me that he's probably going to be good there. Philips only has 20 on the entire season outside his zone.

 

[theberserkfury]

So early returns on the short stint for Alcantara at 2B defensively have been pretty positive. His +/- runs saved is at 2 as is his total runs saved. He's made 3 plays on 4 balls in his zone and 4 plays on balls outside his zone. The sample size is ridiculously small but he's some what comparable to Brandon Phillips if that sort of numbers continue. Phillips is 2 runs +/- and 3 total runs saved on the year with a .784 revised zone rating vs the .750 Alcantara has. Obviously that's lower but we're talking about 1 play not made costing him .250. Additionally, the fact he already has 4 plays on balls outside the zone tells me that he's probably going to be good there. Philips only has 20 on the entire season outside his zone.

You don't happen to be related to Alcantara, do you...?

 

[JZsportsfan]

Remember when people were buzzing about Baez having one of the best seasons ever last year in the minors? Bryant is making that look normal lol. Soler is absolutely crushing it as well. If Soler can stay healthy I think he has as high a ceiling as any of the Cubs prospects

 

[SilenceS]

Michael (CT)

is Soler a main part of the Cubs future?


Klaw

If he can just stay healthy. I still believe he's a star, but all the injuries are killing his development.

I should say they threaten to kill his development. I couldn't say if they actually are doign so.






BK (Mpls)

Can Addison Russell stick at short? I've seen multiple conflicting reports.


Klaw

Yes. I have no doubt.




MH (Chicago)

I know it's the ultimate SSS, but why not keep AA with the Cubs after he just raked today? Can they really not release Barney?


Klaw

I'd demote Lake and try Arismendy in CF. I'd rather have him learn the position on the fly than run Lake's .250 OBP out there every day.

 

[WindyCity]

Demote Lake

Bench Barney

Bench Ruggiano

All of these are fine because none of these guys are in the long term plans. We need playing time, while the Cubs are bad, for these young guys to go through their growing pains.