The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

[chibears55]

If you think it is going to get easier for the Cubs, guess again. By the time the Cubs are willing to spend in what ever year that will be, the other teams like Boston, the Yankees, Angels, Mets, and every other Tom, Dick, and Harry will be ready to spend too.

It is only going to get crazier.

I said next couple off seasons.. 2014,2015... teams like the angels, dodgers, rangers,yankees,tigers will have multiple players tied up to long term deals and have a high payroll.. so , yes even if their just dealing with 2-3 other high payroll teams it will be a bit easier in the next couple seasons as they wont have to battle as many teams for players.

 

[The Bandit]

Choo got 7 years 130 from Texas.

 

[brett05]

7 year deal.... that's a lot of money for someone who doesn't put up more than 20 HRs.

Seems like a steal compared to Cano

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[CSF77]

Pretty good deal. I think he took a discount to go to a contender.

That is a situation where it is worth it to the team to give up a pick. They are a play off team and are competing now vs 3 years from now.

 

[beckdawg]

Pretty good deal. I think he took a discount to go to a contender.

That is a situation where it is worth it to the team to give up a pick. They are a play off team and are competing now vs 3 years from now.

$18.5 mil/season is a "discount?"

 

[CSF77]

He was looking at Jacoby cash.

 

[CSF77]

The Yanks hoped to add Choo’s on-base/power combo to their own lineup after Robinson Cano departed. A source told the Daily News last week that hours after Cano agreed to a $240-million deal with Seattle, the Yanks presented Choo with a contract worth $20 million per year for seven years.
Choo, who is represented by super agent Scott Boras, turned it down, eying something closer to the seven-year, $153-million contract the Yanks had given Boras’ other stud outfield client, Jacoby Ellsbury. But the Yanks pulled the $140 million offer and signed Carlos Beltran for three years and $45 million instead, the source said.
Just because Choo’s Rangers’ deal is reportedly worth $10 million less than the one the Yankees presented doesn’t mean Choo got short-changed, according to multiple reports. Texas does not have a state income tax. The Dallas Morning News suggested Choo’s deal is the equivalent of a contract worth $143 million-$145 million in New York.
The agreement, which was first reported by CBS Sports, will become official after Choo passes a physical and he could be introduced next week. His former club, the Reds, will receive a compensatory draft pick since Choo turned down a qualifying offer.
The 31-year-old Choo has a career on-base percentage of .389, has hit 20 or more homers three times in the last five years and has recorded at least 20 steals four times over that same span.


Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/b...rangers-yanks-article-1.1555006#ixzz2oBF78p3K

 

[CSF77]

Like I said the best thing for the Cubs to do this year is get Olt out there with Lake. Both of them could provide trade value.

Line up:

Castro SS
Valbuena 2B
Rizzo 1B
Olt 3B
Schierholtz RF
Lake LF
Sweeney CF
Castillo C

They would have Baez, Alacantrara, Szczur and Christian Villanueva in AAA to evaluate.
Bryant, Soler and Vogelbach in AA
Almora not sure if they have him skip A+?

By Sept if Soler and Bryant push it they could be looking when rosters expand.

Baez, Alacantara, Bryant, Soler all needing full time roles.

Looking at players that you would want to trade out: Schierholtz, Olt, Lake (Maybe Castro)
Sweeney would be up in the air

They could run out:

Castro SS
Alacantara 2B
Baez 3B
Bryant LF
Rizzo 1B
Soler RF
Sweeney CF
Castillo C

This year

At that point I would be looking at trading up for SP. Shoot Vogelbach would be looking good in a trade. Almora would slot into CF for Sweeney. Line up could use another LH bat but it depends how these hitter hit RH pitching.

So on.

So I don't see the value on adding anything until we get some busts happening then you look at F/A to back fill vs block.

 

[brett05]

Don't you have to trade before busting?

Vitters and Jackson for practical purposes are busts. Cubs are pretty deep which is good. If say the next two bust (say Baez and Alcantra) doesn't that now mean you only hit on a couple of prospects (say Bryant and Almora) and now not have enough for a trade to get quality major league talent?

I'm leaning hard that prospects have to be traded when the ceiling is believed to be AS and not once shown its something much less. Its why I got laughed at two years ago for saying Castro was at maximum value and should be traded. I was right

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[CSF77]

Ya they were busts. And they had filler before and when they struggled in 2012 they signed F/A as extra depth. Vitters got hurt. Stewart got hurt but they were building up depth already then used then drafted Bryant and got Olt in a trade. Jackson was struggling in AAA then they added Bog and Sweeney. Sweeney worked out. Neither Vitters or Jackson got a AB. Yes they both got AB's in 2012. Failed to impress and got replaced from other resource vs doing nothing.

Take Lake. He comes up and hits and plays quality OF. He went into the winter leagues to work on his D. He has a spot. He earned playing time and he is getting an opertunity due to his performance. But I'll bet by June if he is hitting .200 he is getting replaced.

 

[CSF77]

I think the main point is Jed has little resource to work with now and has to work with what he has. I'll bet when they get a new TV deal that is when we see a few major pieces added. Tanaka this year would be nice if it happens.

Regardless they should be at 80 mil and need to get an upgrade to Rusin. Rusin pitched a few gems in 2013 at both levels but then spat out a turd right after vs building off of it. I would be disapointed if they went cheap here.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't get why people are willing to give Olt a shot and then assume Vitters is a total bust. In Olt's only stints in triple A he hit .168 avg .276 obp in the PCL with the cubs and .213 avg .317 OBP with the rangers. He was 24 last year. In his one stint in the majors he hit .152 avg .250 OBP in 40 PAs at age 23. In 109 PAs for Vitters in the majors he hit .121 avg .193 OBP. He was 22. Last year in AAA, Vitters hit .295 avg .380 OBP. The year before, he hit .304 avg .356 OBP.

I'm not saying people should be down on Olt and Olt has always had more power than Vitters. But Vitters is younger than Olt and has crushed AAA where as Olt has struggled. Vitters also posted the highest walk rate in his career last year in AAA with 11% walk rate. He's always hit for average but if he starts walking at over 10%.... he has the potential to be really good on base machine. He could be the type that his 20 HR with a .280ish avg and a .350ish OBP. Those aren't super star numbers but it would put him on a similar level to Alex Gordon, Josh Willingham, Nick Swisher and players of that type. I think he has a realistic shot to win the LF spot with Sweeney and Lake battling it out for the CF slot.

 

[CSF77]

Vitter lost 3B due to his glove. Olt still played league avg 3B.

Olt takes BB and has 30 HR power. Vitters has shown 20 HR power, hits for a better avg but takes BB at a lesser clip.

Fact he is being pushed to a corner OF spot it puts a bigger demand on his OPS to be above .700 pushing .800.

For the record I want neither long term. But Olt was a top 30 prospect and was concidered valuable. If he puts it together (vision is a good excuse) his trade value jumps and the Cubs have 2 better options in Baez and Bryant. So ya it makes sense to see if they can get resale value vs letting a potential trade chip rot.

It will come down to S/T though. If Olt looks like 2012 he should be at 3B. If he looks like 2013 I expect him getting the boot. They are not going to back up 3B.

Vitters already lost his value by taking as long as he did in development. He never reached the potential expected out of a #3 pick. That draft produced better quality after he was picked. So it was a gamble in a HS with a sweet swing and he has not developed as expected.

He can hit but I'm seeing Matt Murtian 2.0

 

[mdj89]

Are Baez an Bryant playing in the 2014 season if they do so good in the farm system?

 

[beckdawg]

Vitters already lost his value by taking as long as he did in development. He never reached the potential expected out of a #3 pick. That draft produced better quality after he was picked. So it was a gamble in a HS with a sweet swing and he has not developed as expected.

Do you know how many 18 year olds take this long? That's kind of my point. You basically have to be a superstar level player to hit the majors at 22 or younger and not suck over an extended period. I mentioned Alex Gordon. He was very hyped coming out of college where he was 22(drafted 2nd) and spent the entire year in AA. It wasn't until he was 23 that he hit the majors full time and he was pretty meh as he was at 24. Vitters was hurt last year at 23 and probably gets the chance this year at 24. Sorry but if you expect every top 5 pick to be a super star you have unrealistic expectations. If he ends up having a Gordon like career it should be considered a success.

Also one more thing.... you know how many OF's hat an OPS above .700 last year who have qualified innings? That would be 44. Only 31 had above .750. And only 20 had above .800. Even if you ignore Vitters' inflated PCL numbers(2013 .295/.380/.511 and 2012 .304/.356/.513) in 2011 in AA he hit .283/.322/.448 and that's before considering the improvement he had in walks last season. Again, I'm not saying he'll be a super star but he could very easily be a fringe all-star type like Gordon developed into.

 

[CSF77]

Again it will come down to performance in S/T. The fact Olt was a top 30 prospect and had vision problems due to his tear ducts he will get an opertunity to compete for 3B. I believe it will be win the job over honestly a Meh platoon or hit the road. Bryant should be at AA and Christian at AAA. There is an outside shot they move him to a corner OF spot. I wouldn't bother if he can't beat Barney (ya they could move the platoon to 2B)

Vitters has already been pushed off of 3B. And it is due to his glove. They went out and traded Bog for the RF platoon. Ya Jed and Theo did not trust Vitters there. They gave LF to Lake. Ya he produced and he is higher on the pecking order.

You really can not pull well this or that is is the reason. Tough tittys. He had a shot in 2012. He sucked. He went back for a 2nd "full" year at AAA and delt with leg issues. Again tough Tittys. He has not earned a spot so ya he needs to go out and crush the ball and impress or he is a wasted 40 man roster spot. He has been in the system long enough to be judged.

Again Olt was ranked higher and 3B has higher trade value over a under powered LF.

If Vitters was so grand he would be given a spot vs on the outside looking in. Olt is in the same boat but again 3B has more trade value

 

[beckdawg]

You really can not pull well this or that is is the reason. Tough tittys. He had a shot in 2012. He sucked. He went back for a 2nd "full" year at AAA and delt with leg issues. Again tough Tittys. He has not earned a spot so ya he needs to go out and crush the ball and impress or he is a wasted 40 man roster spot. He has been in the system long enough to be judged.

Olt was given the same shot in 2012 and he also sucked. He went back and sucked at AAA. You can blame the tear duct issues but they were supposedly fixed during the season and even after being traded to the cubs he didn't perform well in PCL. But it's ok because he was a formerly highly rated prospect.... ya know like Vitters was?

Again, all i'm saying is if you think Olt can be good, why not Vitters? The last time Olt hit was in 2012 in AA. He hasn't hit AAA pitching and he didn't hit MLB pitching. Vitters has hit AAA pitching an sucked equally bad at MLB but he's also a year younger so he should. Lake can easily be moved to CF where he took half his AB and Sweeney can be a 4th outfield if they so choose. Not to mention the fact that Schierholtz undoubtedly will be traded at some point. And are we really going to worry about playing Sweeney over Vitters? I mean Vitters has potential to be a useful piece going forward if he turns around his career like I'm suggesting. Sweeney is already in his prime and still not that great.

Just to remove some bias here, these are the projections fangraphs have on the two.
Olt
Streamer - 444 PAs 47 runs 14 HRs 47 Rbis 4 SB .217/.302/.379, .8 WAR
Oliver - 600 PAs 67 runs 24 HRs 77 RBIs 2 SB .218/.305/.407, 1.6 WAR

Vitters
Streamer - 21 PAs 2 runs 1 HRs 2 RBIs 0 SB .255/.306/.419, .1 WAR
Oliver - 600 PAs, 69 runs 20 HRs 76 RBIs 6 SB .253/.305/.423, 1.4 WAR

Both projections have vitters with a higher OPS. Obviously streamer has a small sample size but both think he's a higher average guy by a significant margin

 

[Flacco4Prez]

Are Baez an Bryant playing in the 2014 season if they do so good in the farm system?

That's the plan. Baez probably June or so, Bryant not until September if at all

 

[beckdawg]

That's the plan. Baez probably June or so, Bryant not until September if at all

Last I heard they don't plan to elevate Bryant unless things go extraordinarily well.

 

[CSF77]

Last I heard they don't plan to elevate Bryant unless things go extraordinarily well.

I agree with that. If he continues what he did in the fall league they will have no choice other than promote him up to Iowa.

I believe he starts in Tenn regardless of S/T results.

On Olt vs Vitters (Really can't compare them as 3B anymore because Vitters projects as a LF now and he is up against Lake)

Minor league career avg:
Olt: .258/.365/.479 .844 OPS (What matters) 1 HR out of 21.95 AB's
Vit: .282/.329/.455 .784 OPS (What matters) 1 HR out of 32.39 AB's.

Honestly looking over the whole body of work Olt is more of a HR threat. Higher OBA higher SLG higher OPS

There was a reason he was ranked higher.

Regardless Vitters is not even a 3B any more. Mute argument.