The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

[beckdawg]

Minor league career avg:
Olt: .258/.365/.479 .844 OPS (What matters) 1 HR out of 21.95 AB's
Vit: .282/.329/.455 .784 OPS (What matters) 1 HR out of 32.39 AB's.

Honestly looking over the whole body of work Olt is more of a HR threat. Higher OBA higher SLG higher OPS

There was a reason he was ranked higher.

Regardless Vitters is not even a 3B any more. Mute argument.

You're comparing someone who had 1584 minor league plate appearances(Olt) to someone who's had 2433(Vitters). Olt had one monster season in AA which was 420 PAs or roughly 25% of that. You're also comparing a player who's minor league career started at age 21 to someone who started at 17. That's pretty unfair considering a 17 year old will developed physically compared to a 21 year old. If you look at Vitteres 21+ years they look like this

2011 Solar Sox (R) .360/.383/.540 1 HR out of 25 AB's
2011 Cubs (AA) .283/.322/.448 1 HR out of 32.07 AB's
2012 Cubs (AAA) .304/.356/.513 1 HR out of 24.41 AB's
2013 Cubs (AAA) .295/.380/.511 1 HR out of 17.6 AB's

I'll concede Olt has more power but that's not really the point. When Olt was 21 he hit .293 /.390/.468 in A- ball compared to what Vitters did in the AFL and AA. When Olt was 22 he .214/.267/.429 in rookie ball, .349/.433/.764 in a second rookie league and .267/.387/.504 in A+ ball. On the contrary, Vitters when 22 hit .304/.356/.513 in AAA. Olt had his break out year at 23 in AA with .288/.398/.579 that got him on prospect lists. At 23, Vitters hit .295/.380/.511 in AAA.

I also don't see what 3B has to do with the argument. I'm not saying they should play Vitters at 3B instead of Olt. I'm saying I'd rather they play Vitters in LF, Lake/Sweeney in CF depending on which plays better in spring training and have the other be a 4th OF. The reason I used Olt was because he's someone who cubs fans think can rebound because he was a major part of the Garza trade. But then those same fans cast off Vitters like he's nothing because he hasn't progressed as fast as Baez did as a player not from college. And if we're going to give up on Vitters because he hit .121 in 109 PAs in 2012 as a 22 year old why would we not also give up on Olt who hit equally poor as a 22 in a cup of coffee call up.

There's a stigma attached to Vitters because he isn't a top 10 prospect right now. Take Soler for example. People are excited about him because he's been hyped up by the prospect people. What's his numbers look like?

2012 Cubs (R) Age 20 .241/.328/.389
2012 Cubs (A) Age 20 .338/.398/.513
2013 Solar Sox (R) Age 21 .271/.311/.376
2013 Cubs (A+) Age 21 .281/.343/.467

Now sure Soler also has good defensive ability to go with him. But from a purely hitting perspective they are pretty comparable for corner outfielders. People seem to act like Vitters is a 26 year old guy with no chance to get better. He'll just be 24. You can't expect superstar out of him but if he had been drafted at 21 and had the same exact lines he did with the cubs people would have an entirely different impression of him. He'd easily be viewed as a top 10 prospect because offensively he's vastly superior to Matt Szczur.

 

[TL1961]

Lake has no feel for the outfield. Blame inexperience, but you simply can't put him in CF. He needs to be in LF if he's in the OF at all.

 

[CSF77]

You're comparing someone who had 1584 minor league plate appearances(Olt) to someone who's had 2433(Vitters). Olt had one monster season in AA which was 420 PAs or roughly 25% of that. You're also comparing a player who's minor league career started at age 21 to someone who started at 17. That's pretty unfair considering a 17 year old will developed physically compared to a 21 year old. If you look at Vitteres 21+ years they look like this

2011 Solar Sox (R) .360/.383/.540 1 HR out of 25 AB's
2011 Cubs (AA) .283/.322/.448 1 HR out of 32.07 AB's
2012 Cubs (AAA) .304/.356/.513 1 HR out of 24.41 AB's
2013 Cubs (AAA) .295/.380/.511 1 HR out of 17.6 AB's

I'll concede Olt has more power but that's not really the point. When Olt was 21 he hit .293 /.390/.468 in A- ball compared to what Vitters did in the AFL and AA. When Olt was 22 he .214/.267/.429 in rookie ball, .349/.433/.764 in a second rookie league and .267/.387/.504 in A+ ball. On the contrary, Vitters when 22 hit .304/.356/.513 in AAA. Olt had his break out year at 23 in AA with .288/.398/.579 that got him on prospect lists. At 23, Vitters hit .295/.380/.511 in AAA.

I also don't see what 3B has to do with the argument. I'm not saying they should play Vitters at 3B instead of Olt. I'm saying I'd rather they play Vitters in LF, Lake/Sweeney in CF depending on which plays better in spring training and have the other be a 4th OF. The reason I used Olt was because he's someone who cubs fans think can rebound because he was a major part of the Garza trade. But then those same fans cast off Vitters like he's nothing because he hasn't progressed as fast as Baez did as a player not from college. And if we're going to give up on Vitters because he hit .121 in 109 PAs in 2012 as a 22 year old why would we not also give up on Olt who hit equally poor as a 22 in a cup of coffee call up.

There's a stigma attached to Vitters because he isn't a top 10 prospect right now. Take Soler for example. People are excited about him because he's been hyped up by the prospect people. What's his numbers look like?

2012 Cubs (R) Age 20 .241/.328/.389
2012 Cubs (A) Age 20 .338/.398/.513
2013 Solar Sox (R) Age 21 .271/.311/.376
2013 Cubs (A+) Age 21 .281/.343/.467

Now sure Soler also has good defensive ability to go with him. But from a purely hitting perspective they are pretty comparable for corner outfielders. People seem to act like Vitters is a 26 year old guy with no chance to get better. He'll just be 24. You can't expect superstar out of him but if he had been drafted at 21 and had the same exact lines he did with the cubs people would have an entirely different impression of him. He'd easily be viewed as a top 10 prospect because offensively he's vastly superior to Matt Szczur.

That was a big winded I like Vitters speech.

The main point here is when S/T starts Olt will be in competition for 3B. Vitters will be in competition for LF.

If neither win it they will not be on the team and most likely off of the 40 man rosters. There are better players up coming.

I think you just like arguing to argue.

 

[CSF77]

Lake has no feel for the outfield. Blame inexperience, but you simply can't put him in CF. He needs to be in LF if he's in the OF at all.

He was getting rave reviews of his OF play this offseason. He should end up a plus defender.

Sweeney best UZR is in RF but his CF is decent also

But main thing in concidering platoons is their splits and if it is necessary.

Sweeney was interesting last year. He IMO took his game to a higher level (I don't buy the projections on fan graphs).

Vs left career: .236/.306/.303. 2013. .313/.365/.458. It doesn't look like the same player

Vs right career .289/.344/.406. 2013 .250/.310/.444

Now I would play him full time in CF due to his 2013 splits as it shows that he was crushing LH pitching. Now if he regresses then this needs to be addressed.

Another point here

Jed has said at the meetings that Lake will play full time. If he was not he would play full time in Iowa.

[video]http://wapc.mlb.com/chc/play/?content_id=31266853&topic_id=8878538&c_id=chc[/video]

He is viewed as a future piece by them.

You notice they don't talk about Vitters. Well for that matter Olt was not promoted either. Jackson got some talk about ow he was making some adjustments

When they have to start opening roster spots if they are still sitting in the minors I'll bet they get bumped off. I would put Jackson as first to go. He just strikes out way too much and lacks the power to justify the lack of contact.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs Claim Brett Marshall
By Steve Adams [December 23, 2013 at 1:06pm CST]
The Cubs have claimed right-hander Brett Marshall off waivers from the Yankees, according to MLB Daily Dish's Chris Cotillo (on Twitter). Marshall was designated for assignment last week when the Yankees made the signing of Carlos Beltran official.

Though he made a trio of relief appearances at the big league level in 2013, the bulk of his season was spent in Triple-A where he posted a 5.13 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 25 starts. He ranked sixth among Yankees prospects just one year ago, drawing praise for having the best changeup in their system. In 2012, Marshall posted a 3.52 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 158 1/3 innings at Double-A Trenton. Still just 23 years old, he's young enough to give the Cubs reason for optimism.

 

[CSF77]

Orioles Claim Liam Hendriks
By Steve Adams [December 23, 2013 at 1:08pm CST]
The Orioles announced that they have claimed right-hander Liam Hendriks of waivers from the Cubs. The Cubs claimed Hendriks just days prior after he was designated for assignment by the Twins to make room for Phil Hughes on the 40-man roster.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old ranked sixth and seventh on the Baseball America's Top 10 Twins prospects lists from 2010-11 and has a solid minor league history. The Australian righty has a 3.61 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 254 career innings at Triple-A and a career 2.99 ERA in the minors as a whole.

Hendriks has been unable to put it together in three Major League stints, however, as evidenced by his bloated 6.06 ERA in 156 innings. He's averaged 5.8 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in those 156 frames to go along with a below-average 40.4 percent ground-ball rate. Hendriks barely averages better than 90 mph on his fastball, leading to too much hard contact when it's in the zone, as evidenced by a 23.3 percent line-drive rate from his opponents that has helped bloat his career BABIP to .330.

After claiming Hendriks, the Orioles now have 39 players on their 40-man roster.

 

[CSF77]

40 man

# Pitchers B/T Ht Wt DOB
49 Jake Arrieta R-R 6'4" 225 Mar 6, 1986
## Dallas Beeler R-R 6'5" 205 Jun 12, 1989
55 Alberto Cabrera R-R 6'4" 210 Oct 25, 1988
11 Kyuji Fujikawa L-R 6'0" 190 Jul 21, 1980
52 Justin Grimm R-R 6'3" 200 Aug 16, 1988
## Brett Marshall R-R 6'1" 195 Mar 22, 1990
36 Edwin Jackson R-R 6'3" 210 Sep 9, 1983
50 Blake Parker R-R 6'3" 225 Jun 19, 1985
43 Brooks Raley L-L 6'3" 200 Jun 29, 1988
## Neil Ramirez R-R 6'4" 190 May 25, 1989
56 Hector Rondon R-R 6'3" 180 Feb 26, 1988
59 Zac Rosscup R-L 6'2" 205 Jun 9, 1988
18 Chris Rusin L-L 6'2" 195 Oct 22, 1986
40 James Russell L-L 6'4" 200 Jan 8, 1986
29 Jeff Samardzija R-R 6'5" 225 Jan 23, 1985
46 Pedro Strop R-R 6'0" 215 Jun 13, 1985
33 Carlos Villanueva R-R 6'2" 215 Nov 28, 1983
41 Arodys Vizcaino R-R 6'0" 190 Nov 13, 1990
37 Travis Wood R-L 5'11" 175 Feb 6, 1987
## Wesley Wright R-L 5'11" 185 Jan 28, 1985

# Catchers B/T Ht Wt DOB
53 Welington Castillo R-R 5'10" 210 Apr 24, 1987
## George Kottaras L-R 6'0" 200 May 10, 1983

# Infielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
## Arismendy Alcantara S-R 5'10" 160 Oct 29, 1991
15 Darwin Barney R-R 5'10" 185 Nov 8, 1985
13 Starlin Castro R-R 5'10" 190 Mar 24, 1990
8 Donnie Murphy R-R 5'10" 190 Mar 10, 1983
## Mike Olt R-R 6'2" 210 Aug 27, 1988
44 Anthony Rizzo L-L 6'3" 240 Aug 8, 1989
24 Luis Valbuena L-R 5'10" 170 Nov 30, 1985
61 Christian Villanueva R-R 5'11" 160 Jun 19, 1991
5 Josh Vitters R-R 6'2" 200 Aug 27, 1989
22 Logan Watkins L-R 5'11" 175 Aug 29, 1989

# Outfielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
7 Brett Jackson L-R 6'2" 220 Aug 2, 1988
21 Junior Lake R-R 6'3" 215 Mar 27, 1990
## Justin Ruggiano R-R 6'1" 210 Apr 12, 1982
19 Nate Schierholtz L-R 6'2" 215 Feb 15, 1984
68 Jorge Soler R-R 6'4" 215 Feb 25, 1992
6 Ryan Sweeney L-L 6'4" 225 Feb 20, 1985
72 Matt Szczur R-R 6'1" 195 Jul 20, 1989

 

[beckdawg]

That was a big winded I like Vitters speech.

The main point here is when S/T starts Olt will be in competition for 3B. Vitters will be in competition for LF.

If neither win it they will not be on the team and most likely off of the 40 man rosters. There are better players up coming.

I think you just like arguing to argue.

You can call it long winded. I'll call it supporting my argument with data. Either way, I'll say it right now I think he will surprise people in ST.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs Claim Brett Marshall

Not a ton to love here I think. He was good in 2011-2012 at A+ and AA. He was the Yanks 7th best prospect according to fangraphs before last season. Maybe he can rebound in AAA this year and he'll only be 24.

 

[CSF77]

You can call it long winded. I'll call it supporting my argument with data. Either way, I'll say it right now I think he will surprise people in ST.

That is fine. If Jed and Theo were hyping him or even talking about him for that matter. Or they were not trading for Justin Ruggiano. Or if Jed did just going into this humping Lake's leg and grouping him in with Bryant and Almora I might start to care about him.

My opinion is the same. I'm classifying him in with Jackson, Olt and the busts until he proves us wrong.

 

[CSF77]

Not a ton to love here I think. He was good in 2011-2012 at A+ and AA. He was the Yanks 7th best prospect according to fangraphs before last season. Maybe he can rebound in AAA this year and he'll only be 24.

I'm kinda worried that they are going with a cheap #5 competition with Rusin if Tanaka doesn't get posted. He had 25 starts in AAA already.

I would rather have them just resign Baker as he is better than Arreta and E. Jaxx.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm kinda worried that they are going with a cheap #5 competition with Rusin if Tanaka doesn't get posted. He had 25 starts in AAA already.

I would rather have them just resign Baker as he is better than Arreta and E. Jaxx.

Well presumably even if they sign Baker they need depth because if and when they trade Shark they need an additional guy.

 

[waldo7239117]

I think the Cubs will try to slip Marshall to Triple-A and so he won't be on the 40-man roster for long. The Cubs tried that with Hendricks, but the O's picked him up.

 

[nickofypres]

I liked Waldo better when his grammar was atrocious.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs Interested In Jesse Crain
By Charlie Wilmoth [December 23, 2013 at 7:44pm CST]
The Cubs are interested in reliever Jesse Crain, 670thescore.com's Bruce Levine tweets. The Cubs are one of many teams looking at Crain's medical information.

Crain, 32, spent the last three years as a setup man for the Cubs' cross-town rivals. He posted an 0.74 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 36 2/3 innings for the White Sox in 2013, although he suffered a shoulder injury in June and missed the rest of the season. The White Sox traded him to the Rays in July, but he did not make an appearance for Tampa Bay.

FOX Sports' Jon Morosi tweeted last week that Crain was deciding whether to take a one- or two-year deal. A one-year deal presumably might be attractive to Crain as a way of proving his shoulder is healthy before hitting the free-agent market against next season.

The Astros have reportedly shown interest in Crain, as have the Rockies. The Cubs agreed to a contract with Jose Veras last week with the intention of making him their closer, so Crain would likely continue to work in a setup-type role if the Cubs were to sign him.

 

[SilenceS]

Cubs Interested In Jesse Crain
By Charlie Wilmoth [December 23, 2013 at 7:44pm CST]
The Cubs are interested in reliever Jesse Crain, 670thescore.com's Bruce Levine tweets. The Cubs are one of many teams looking at Crain's medical information.

Crain, 32, spent the last three years as a setup man for the Cubs' cross-town rivals. He posted an 0.74 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 36 2/3 innings for the White Sox in 2013, although he suffered a shoulder injury in June and missed the rest of the season. The White Sox traded him to the Rays in July, but he did not make an appearance for Tampa Bay.

FOX Sports' Jon Morosi tweeted last week that Crain was deciding whether to take a one- or two-year deal. A one-year deal presumably might be attractive to Crain as a way of proving his shoulder is healthy before hitting the free-agent market against next season.

The Astros have reportedly shown interest in Crain, as have the Rockies. The Cubs agreed to a contract with Jose Veras last week with the intention of making him their closer, so Crain would likely continue to work in a setup-type role if the Cubs were to sign him.

Dude, our bullpen is gonna be stout. Instead of losing 6 to 0. We are going to lose games 4 to 0. Stick that in people's pipe and smoke it.

 

[CSF77]

Not sure what direction they are going here.

Say they get Crane for set up with Stop Veras as closer.

So 7/8/9 set. Right direction IMO

LH spec: Wesley Wright

4 set leaves 3 spots.

Russell as 1.

other two would be in competition: Justin Grimm, Carlos Villanueva, Alberto Cabrera, Blake Parker and Hector Rondon were teh hold overs.


Rotation wise:

Shark, Wood, Jackson, Arreta are set

I'm seeing the #5 depth being: Rusin, Marshall I wouldn't be surprised if Grimm, Cabrera and Villanueva are tossed into to the mix.

Personal choice: In house Cabrera. Has a power arm. Want him for the rotation.

Pen both Grimm and Villanueva for long relief and spot starting. Care less about Parker and Rondon has a power arm but would rather keep in in AAA for depth.

AAA would be Kyle Hendricks, Brooks Raley, Dallas Beeler, Eric Jokisch and Matt Loosen (Way I would work it at least) Rest I would push back. (Loosen I would hold back if any at Tenn)

 

[CSF77]

Dude, our bullpen is gonna be stout. Instead of losing 6 to 0. We are going to lose games 4 to 0. Stick that in people's pipe and smoke it.

Tell me about it.

VS RH: (2013 splits)
1: Starlin Castro .251/.288/.347
2: Luis Valbuena .217/.331/.383
3: Anthony Rizzo .252/.342/.454
4: Nate Schierholtz .262/.300/.499
5: Junior Lake .251/.303/.389
6: Ryan Sweeney .250/.310/.444
7: Wellington Castillo .282/.353/.405
8: Darwin Barney .194/.251/.264

Best hitter was Castillo vs RH pitching. Not as concerned vs LH pitching. Weak link is Barney. Faster they replace him in the line up the better they are. Getting Castro's OBA over .340 is a must also.

 

[beckdawg]

Dude, our bullpen is gonna be stout. Instead of losing 6 to 0. We are going to lose games 4 to 0. Stick that in people's pipe and smoke it.

If they replace Barney at 2B with the 3B split from last year, get halfway decent production out of presumably Olt at 3B and Castro returns to 2012 levels the offense has a shot to be halfway decent. Castro and Barney really killed them last year.

 

[waldo7239117]

They could have a lot of bullpen pieces to trade at deadline. But if they're good, I would keep them and sign them in off-season.