The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

[Boobaby1]

So question for you guys:

Would you rather have Tanaka at 7 yrs 160 mil OR Garza AND Ubaldo or Ervin Santana for around the 160 mil?

Tanaka hands down both from a business side, and the Cubs desperate need of young impact pitching in the system.

The other two out of three won't help out when the Cubs plan to be competitive IMO, and you would have to expect that further wear and tear on their arms in 3-4 years wouldn't be good either when the aforementioned pitchers respectively are now 30, 30, and 31 years of age.

Plus, after Tanaka is signed by whomever, you would have to think that these guys are going to rake in a lot more than that on the open market.

Contracts are getting stupid these days with the TV revenues being generated.

 

[schizm032003]

I don't think we can get Tanaka, someone is gonna massively overpay him, and likely he would rather go to a team with a chance to win, rather than a rebuilding team like our cubs. I'd go after Garza, give him 5yrs for $90 million. It's overpaying some, but we could get him for that if we go aggressively now. He liked being with the cubs, he would have the security he's likely looking for, and he's young enough to be effective when the kids are up. Go after him, sign him, and we have a proven an effective starter going forward.

Then trade Shark and maybe Schierholz to Baltimore for a package of Bundy, and Rodriguez with a lower level prospect. Bundy, if healthy would give us the young pitching prospect with ace potential, and a lefty that could top out as a solid number two type that should be ready within a year. That would give us Garza, Wood, Bundy, Arrieta, and Jackson going into the season. Which would be a solid group, combined with an improving bullpen full of young power arms, Rizzo and Castro hitting better, Baez and Bryant at some point, hopefully Castillo taking another step forward in his development, and we should be a competitive team. Going forward we would have a solid core, solid pitching, with more talent coming.

 

[Boobaby1]

I don't think we can get Tanaka, someone is gonna massively overpay him, and likely he would rather go to a team with a chance to win, rather than a rebuilding team like our cubs. I'd go after Garza, give him 5yrs for $90 million. It's overpaying some, but we could get him for that if we go aggressively now. He liked being with the cubs, he would have the security he's likely looking for, and he's young enough to be effective when the kids are up. Go after him, sign him, and we have a proven an effective starter going forward.

Then trade Shark and maybe Schierholz to Baltimore for a package of Bundy, and Rodriguez with a lower level prospect. Bundy, if healthy would give us the young pitching prospect with ace potential, and a lefty that could top out as a solid number two type that should be ready within a year. That would give us Garza, Wood, Bundy, Arrieta, and Jackson going into the season. Which would be a solid group, combined with an improving bullpen full of young power arms, Rizzo and Castro hitting better, Baez and Bryant at some point, hopefully Castillo taking another step forward in his development, and we should be a competitive team. Going forward we would have a solid core, solid pitching, with more talent coming.

The Cubs had to baby Garza's arm over the past year and a half due to injury, and even though he liked pitching for the Cubs, the same would hold true for your analysis with Tanaka. Why would he want to come to a rebuilding team that is even worse than when he left it?

Garza has already been with a competitive Texas team, and his chances would be better served to be the #3 in Seattle, or go to Toronto where they have established talent. The Cubs have very little talent at the parent level, and if you trade Shark, that is even that much less on the Cubs.

 

[schizm032003]

Dude, our bullpen is gonna be stout. Instead of losing 6 to 0. We are going to lose games 4 to 0. Stick that in people's pipe and smoke it.

I actually think our bullpen could be strong next year. We lost a lot of close games where the bullpen blew a lead, or couldn't keep the tie, or keep the other team to a small lead to give us a shot. I don't think that will be an issue this coming year. If the bullpen is as strong as I believe it can be, and we continue to get pretty good starting pitching, we will be in a lot of games, the offense is what worries me the most. However I think that Olt will not only be our 3B, I think he will hit enough to keep the job all year. I think he will give us about 25 HRs, with a batting average around .240-.260 with a strong OBP. Castro should return closer to the form he's previously shown, and Rizzo should hit better and give us good power numbers. I'm hoping Valbuena is the second baseman until Baez comes up. If Valbuena gives us what we got from him last year, we should be ok there offensively, he will be in a platoon with likely Murphy, but them combined should give us much more than Barney ever will, keeping the production from that position at least respectable.

I don't expect Baez to light it up once he comes up, but he will give us another bat with power, and his bat speed should keep him from being too overmatched. I also expect Bryant to come up around June and actually hit very well, this kid is a natural, and I expect he will not only hit well, but he will be a big part of our offense not long after he comes up. Offensively we should be a lot better there's definite ifs, but I think we will all be pleasantly surprised. I don't think it'll be enough to contend for the division or even the wild card, but it will be enough that we could win 75-80 games. The most important thing will we will all see the beginning of the turn around in our rebuild.

 

[SilenceS]

I actually think our bullpen could be strong next year. We lost a lot of close games where the bullpen blew a lead, or couldn't keep the tie, or keep the other team to a small lead to give us a shot. I don't think that will be an issue this coming year. If the bullpen is as strong as I believe it can be, and we continue to get pretty good starting pitching, we will be in a lot of games, the offense is what worries me the most. However I think that Olt will not only be our 3B, I think he will hit enough to keep the job all year. I think he will give us about 25 HRs, with a batting average around .240-.260 with a strong OBP. Castro should return closer to the form he's previously shown, and Rizzo should hit better and give us good power numbers. I'm hoping Valbuena is the second baseman until Baez comes up. If Valbuena gives us what we got from him last year, we should be ok there offensively, he will be in a platoon with likely Murphy, but them combined should give us much more than Barney ever will, keeping the production from that position at least respectable.

I don't expect Baez to light it up once he comes up, but he will give us another bat with power, and his bat speed should keep him from being too overmatched. I also expect Bryant to come up around June and actually hit very well, this kid is a natural, and I expect he will not only hit well, but he will be a big part of our offense not long after he comes up. Offensively we should be a lot better there's definite ifs, but I think we will all be pleasantly surprised. I don't think it'll be enough to contend for the division or even the wild card, but it will be enough that we could win 75-80 games. The most important thing will we will all see the beginning of the turn around in our rebuild.

Bryant will not be up until September. It is almost unheard of to have a player in the major leagues under a year after the draft.

 

[schizm032003]

The Cubs had to baby Garza's arm over the past year and a half due to injury, and even though he liked pitching for the Cubs, the same would hold true for your analysis with Tanaka. Why would he want to come to a rebuilding team that is even worse than when he left it?

Garza has already been with a competitive Texas team, and his chances would be better served to be the #3 in Seattle, or go to Toronto where they have established talent. The Cubs have very little talent at the parent level, and if you trade Shark, that is even that much less on the Cubs.

Whomever we end up signing, it won't matter, cause Shark is gonna get traded. As for him wanting to contend, I can see that, but at the same time everyone's laying back waiting on Tanaka leaving these other pitchers twisting in the wind. Plus wherever Tanaka goes, the teams that lose out will likely come calling the cubs cause Shark is younger, has some team control, little wear on his arm, leaving a guy like Garza out there to wait that out as well, and it could be longer if Tampa does decide to throw Price out on the market. I think if we went after him hard, we could get him. Just by us showing interest, his love for the city, the fact that likely the longer he's out there the less money he could get, as well as the fact that the kids should begin to arrive next year and continue on after that, he could see we will be a much better and younger team before too much longer, I think he will take it.

I'm not worried over his arm either, he had issues, but I don't think it's a problem now. He's not an ace but he's a solid number two, and we could use that. Not saying that's the be all end all to this offseason, just that we obviously need an arm, and preferably one we know pitches effectively each time out. No one really knows yet what Tanakas gonna do, but I don't think it looks good for us getting him. Plus to me he's a huge question mark right now, is he a Darvish type, or will he be another Irabu? I think tHat while his upside is undeniable, he has a lot of innings on that arm, he's never pitched in the majors, and would be in the United States, away from home, for a very long time. No one can say how he would handle that.

 

[schizm032003]

Bryant will not be up until September. It is almost unheard of to have a player in the major leagues under a year after the draft.

It's happened before, he'll Leaked went to the majors without time in the minors. If the guys tearing it up, they'll bring him up. He's very polished and doesn't need a lot of time in the minors. If he does what he's been doing it doesn't benefit him at all to be sitting in the minors, especially when we really need offense.

 

[Boobaby1]

It's happened before, he'll Leaked went to the majors without time in the minors. If the guys tearing it up, they'll bring him up. He's very polished and doesn't need a lot of time in the minors. If he does what he's been doing it doesn't benefit him at all to be sitting in the minors, especially when we really need offense.

Theo & Co. like to have 500 AB's in the minors before moving, so Bryant is a no. Baez would have to force their hand, and being that young, I see him as an August call up after the Cubs trade away more players so they can show him off for the fans. Hopefully he is tearing up AAA so their will be a buzz.

I'm not worried over his arm either, he had issues, but I don't think it's a problem now. He's not an ace but he's a solid number two, and we could use that. Not saying that's the be all end all to this offseason, just that we obviously need an arm, and preferably one we know pitches effectively each time out.

We already have Jackson, and to add Garza back into the mix would be a mistake IMO. If the Cubs were a contender and needed another arm, I would say yes.

The brass wants to get a lot younger and their is only one pitcher that will do that. If they whiff on Tanaka, expect a Baker or Hammel signing on a one year deal with maybe a club option the following year.

No one really knows yet what Tanakas gonna do, but I don't think it looks good for us getting him. Plus to me he's a huge question mark right now, is he a Darvish type, or will he be another Irabu? I think tHat while his upside is undeniable, he has a lot of innings on that arm, he's never pitched in the majors, and would be in the United States, away from home, for a very long time. No one can say how he would handle that.

That's where the gamble is. He is no different than Pujols, Darvish, Hamilton, Ryu, Fielder, Sabathia, or Ichiro to name a few. Some have success, while some haven't or haven't gotten back to their old form yet or maybe never will. Who cares?

Are these teams going belly up? We are talking about one contract, not five.

Tanaka at 165 million or whatever is no more of a gamble than Kershaw at 300 million. Anybody can blow out an arm or get hurt, but as in gambling, if you play with scared money, you will never win at all.

Cubs fans are so enamored with the Soriano (which is the only mega free agent in the history of the Cubs) contract that they don't want to sign anybody. But in his stay here, he was an integral part of the 07', 08' teams, and the leader in RBI's and the clubhouse the last few years. It's hard for me to say he was a total flop, and I doubt very seriously that the value of the Cubs went down at all while he was here.

Were the Cubs going to win with Soriano in his later years? No! But I also don't want to hear how strapped for cash they are like some claim around here that they are when they ate his contract to play for another team.

If Tanaka brought a WS to Chicago as Dice-K did in Boston for only two years of service, I would take it in a heartbeat because they were still able to win another one just six years later. So much for the long drought and Boston going bankrupt. opcorn:

 

[CSF77]

Theo & Co. like to have 500 AB's in the minors before moving, so Bryant is a no. Baez would have to force their hand, and being that young, I see him as an August call up after the Cubs trade away more players so they can show him off for the fans. Hopefully he is tearing up AAA so their will be a buzz.

That was hype to keep Rizzo's time clock from starting. More recently he has said it falls on the player. If they dominate a level then they are getting promoted.

I would look into the amount spend to sign him. That is allot of cash spend for playing some pointless games.

Baez I believe will fall under the super 2 rule. When he passes that date and his production dictates it he should get a promote.

 

[beckdawg]

That was hype to keep Rizzo's time clock from starting. More recently he has said it falls on the player. If they dominate a level then they are getting promoted.

I would look into the amount spend to sign him. That is allot of cash spend for playing some pointless games.

Baez I believe will fall under the super 2 rule. When he passes that date and his production dictates it he should get a promote.

What good comes from starting Baez's super 2 clock? If you're in the playoff chase then maybe you make an argument but is anyone really going to try and argue the cubs will be in that position? Plus it's not like he has nothing left to work on. His K rate last year was fairly bad for a hyped prospect. His walk rate could also improve and that's before you consider his defense which was a bit of a struggle. All three of those things can be improved. There's no reason to rush him.

 

[SilenceS]

What good comes from starting Baez's super 2 clock? If you're in the playoff chase then maybe you make an argument but is anyone really going to try and argue the cubs will be in that position? Plus it's not like he has nothing left to work on. His K rate last year was fairly bad for a hyped prospect. His walk rate could also improve and that's before you consider his defense which was a bit of a struggle. All three of those things can be improved. There's no reason to rush him.

No one is rushing him. He is forcing peoples hands. He had a wOBA of over .400 last year. He had a wRC+ of 145 in A+ and 180 in AA. Yea, he strikes out but playing against inferior players isnt going to help that. His walks improved last year and he absolutely demolished two leagues. Compare his numbers with anyone. He isnt being rushed. He is just forcing himself on the big league team.

 

[beckdawg]

No one is rushing him. He is forcing peoples hands. He had a wOBA of over .400 last year. He had a wRC+ of 145 in A+ and 180 in AA. Yea, he strikes out but playing against inferior players isnt going to help that. His walks improved last year and he absolutely demolished two leagues. Compare his numbers with anyone. He isnt being rushed. He is just forcing himself on the big league team.

I don't agree he can't improve his approach to the plate vs minor league players. In fact, I'd argue that players are often brought up too soon struggle and then have to be sent back down. There's no good reason to bring him up before the super 2 cut off. I'm not saying he has to stay in AAA all year but to bring him up pre-super 2 cut off would just be a waste. At the very least you're giving him more time to work on his defense at SS(or wherever they plan to play him in the majors).

Also, what indication at all have they given they plan to elevate him to the majors next year before call ups normally happen? They've actually went out of their way to say that patients is needed. And it's not even like it's that unheard of for a top 10 prospect to do what he has done then struggle in the majors. Mike Moustakas had .473 wOBA and 194 wRC+ in AA. The next season he started in AAA had .365 wOBA with 105 wRC+. He's been a disappointment in the majors over 2.5 years.

 

[SilenceS]

I don't agree he can't improve his approach to the plate vs minor league players. In fact, I'd argue that players are often brought up too soon struggle and then have to be sent back down. There's no good reason to bring him up before the super 2 cut off. I'm not saying he has to stay in AAA all year but to bring him up pre-super 2 cut off would just be a waste. At the very least you're giving him more time to work on his defense at SS(or wherever they plan to play him in the majors).

Also, what indication at all have they given they plan to elevate him to the majors next year before call ups normally happen? They've actually went out of their way to say that patients is needed.

Because AA is the biggest step in a players progression and he killed the league. He will be up around the same time rizzo came up if he continues to hit like he did last year. It means AAA isn't challenging him. Have you actually read scouts like parks or law and others about where he will be challenged. AAA is a hitters league. Pitching never domiates in the PCL. He hits he will be up late June or in July. Sitting a player in the minors if he has raked at every level is just dumb. Cubs don't have to worry about a year of less money. This franchise doesn't have to play money ball.

 

[beckdawg]

Because AA is the biggest step in a players progression and he killed the league. He will be up around the same time rizzo came up if he continues to hit like he did last year. It means AAA isn't challenging him. Have you actually read scouts like parks or law and others about where he will be challenged. AAA is a hitters league. Pitching never domiates in the PCL. He hits he will be up late June or in July. Sitting a player in the minors if he has raked at every level is just dumb. Cubs don't have to worry about a year of less money. This franchise doesn't have to play money ball.

I simply don't agree. Team control always matters if for no other reason but making an extension cheaper(eg buying out team controlled years is always much cheaper than new FA years). Waiting 1-2 more months in AAA wont impact his development. So what benefit do they get out of him breaking super 2 status? Like I said, if they were going to be in a playoff run then maybe you make a exception but they simply wont be that good. Also I simply don't buy your statement that there isn't stuff he can work on in AAA. Even if he dominates the level he can always dominate it more. And simply stated, I'd rather bring him up a half season to a year too late than half a season to a year "too early."

 

[beckdawg]

To illustrate my point look at Chris Davis. He's another power hitter who has had high K% throughout his career. His first call up to AA he hit .294/.371/.688 with a 174 wRC+ over 124 PAs which is close to what Baez got last year. Both were 21 when they first hit AA. At 22, Davis started at AA for 202 PAs where he again dominated to the tune of .333/.376/.618 with a wRC+ of 156, went to AAA for 127 PAs hit .333/.402/.685 with a wRC+ of 165 and finally ended the year in the majors where he hit .285/.331/.549 with a wRC+ of 126. Great right? Well what happened year 2 in the majors? He hits .238/.284/.442 with a wRC+ of 80 as a 23 year old. He gets sent back down to AAA where he again performs well .327/.418/.521 with a wRC+ of 148. As a 24 he spends 136 PAs in the majors where he hits .192/.279/.292 with an wRC+ of 44 and the rest of the season in AAA where he again hits well to the tune of 444 PAs with .327/.383/.520 with a wRC+ of 129.

As a 25 year old he spends 210 PAs with the texas in AAA hitting .368/.405/.824 with a wRC+ of 189 before they finally give up on him trading him and Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara. The following year with the O's he hits .270/.326/.501 with a wRC+ of 120. He clearly needed more time to develop than just seeing major league pitching because other than his brief cup of coffee major league pitching dominated him. So to sit here and say you can't get better in AAA is silly in my opinion. Even if you're over cautious, so what? How does Baez spending more time in AAA hurt them? The majority of the prospects needed to make the cubs a competitive team are farther from the major than he is. So, starting his service timer soon really offers them nothing.

 

[SilenceS]

Well convo is done because you made no points about Baez.

 

[chibears55]

Arb wont really matter with players like Baez and Bryant because those are players they will look to extend pass their Arb years like thet did with Castro and Rizzo. .

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[SilenceS]

Arb wont really matter with players like Baez and Bryant because those are players they will look to extend pass their Arb years like thet did with Castro and Rizzo. .

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You are correct. People need to get off money ball.

 

[beckdawg]

Arb wont really matter with players like Baez and Bryant because those are players they will look to extend pass their Arb years like thet did with Castro and Rizzo. .

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Sure it will because when you go to extend them you're going to be paying them substantially more money for the same length of the deal. As I've said, if that gets you into the playoffs or wins you a WS then fine. But what is sticking Baez in AAA for an extra 1-2 months costing them? No one has answered that yet. People are just too impatient. You're talking about starting an arbitration clock for no gain.

 

[SilenceS]

Sure it will because when you go to extend them you're going to be paying them substantially more money for the same length of the deal. As I've said, if that gets you into the playoffs or wins you a WS then fine. But what is sticking Baez in AAA for an extra 1-2 months costing them? No one has answered that yet. People are just too impatient. You're talking about starting an arbitration clock for no gain.

It also shows players that they are not being rewarded for their hard work and production. Major League experience is a ton more valuable then AAA experience. So, why did the Cubs bring up Rizzo in June two years ago? The Cubs were surely not going anywhere.