The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

[brett05]

You are the Cubs. Cash ---- Cow! Who cares if a player needs to be paid more. That means a team has a player or players that deserve to be paid. What a problem to have.

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[beckdawg]

It also shows players that they are not being rewarded for their hard work and production. Major League experience is a ton more valuable then AAA experience. So, why did the Cubs bring up Rizzo in June two years ago? The Cubs were surely not going anywhere.

Guess we'll just have to disagree here. I think it's stupid to cost yourself money for no gain. Baez has essentially one seasons worth of ABs in A ball and half a season in AA. Having him stay in the minors until the super 2 cut off is costing 100 ABs tops in the majors next year. Wil Myers who's a similar level prospect spent 2039 PAs in the minors compared to 976 PAs by Baez. Tavarez has spent 1403 PAs in the minors. Profar spent 1532 PAs in the minors. Xander Bogaerts has 1995 PAs. Miguel Sano has 1606. Even if you want to look at Harper and Trout that's low. Harper had 680 with another 250 in juco while Trout had 1330 PAs before seeing the majors.

So again I ask, why rush him? Even if he spends over half the year in AAA that's what maybe 400 PAs putting him at 1376 PAs which is right around the same amount of time Trout spent in the minors. I don't care how good we think Baez is, if that's the amount of time Trout spent then chances are Baez needs that much and probably more.

 

[brett05]

Guess we'll just have to disagree here. I think it's stupid to cost yourself money for no gain. Baez has essentially one seasons worth of ABs in A ball and half a season in AA. Having him stay in the minors until the super 2 cut off is costing 100 ABs tops in the majors next year. Wil Myers who's a similar level prospect spent 2039 PAs in the minors compared to 976 PAs by Baez. Tavarez has spent 1403 PAs in the minors. Profar spent 1532 PAs in the minors. Xander Bogaerts has 1995 PAs. Miguel Sano has 1606. Even if you want to look at Harper and Trout that's low. Harper had 680 with another 250 in juco while Trout had 1330 PAs before seeing the majors.

So again I ask, why rush him? Even if he spends over half the year in AAA that's what maybe 400 PAs putting him at 1376 PAs which is right around the same amount of time Trout spent in the minors. I don't care how good we think Baez is, if that's the amount of time Trout spent then chances are Baez needs that much and probably more.

I see your viewpont but your analogy of what Baez compared to others is not valid. Proof? Here's a link to the minor league plate appearances of Hall of Famer Dave Winfield. -----

Each player and situation should be judged for what they are on their own.

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[SilenceS]

I see your viewpont but your analogy of what Baez compared to others is not valid. Proof? Here's a link to the minor league plate appearances of Hall of Famer Dave Winfield. -----

Each player and situation should be judged for what they are on their own.

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Absolutely true!

 

[SilenceS]

Guess we'll just have to disagree here. I think it's stupid to cost yourself money for no gain. Baez has essentially one seasons worth of ABs in A ball and half a season in AA. Having him stay in the minors until the super 2 cut off is costing 100 ABs tops in the majors next year. Wil Myers who's a similar level prospect spent 2039 PAs in the minors compared to 976 PAs by Baez. Tavarez has spent 1403 PAs in the minors. Profar spent 1532 PAs in the minors. Xander Bogaerts has 1995 PAs. Miguel Sano has 1606. Even if you want to look at Harper and Trout that's low. Harper had 680 with another 250 in juco while Trout had 1330 PAs before seeing the majors.

So again I ask, why rush him? Even if he spends over half the year in AAA that's what maybe 400 PAs putting him at 1376 PAs which is right around the same amount of time Trout spent in the minors. I don't care how good we think Baez is, if that's the amount of time Trout spent then chances are Baez needs that much and probably more.

No one is rushing him. Baez has forced himself into this position. Theo and them wanted 500 at bats at every level for a player, but things changed when Baez destroyed the leagues. He has forced them to keep promoting him. Fans had nothing to do with him going through two levels last year. That was Theo and scouts and coaches who made that choice. Also, no gain? The Cubs are setup to put out the worst team they have had under Theo. Attendance is going to go down again. Guess what you can use as a marketing ploy? The next big thing. The uber prospect Javier Baez. Him coming to Wrigley would bring people out just to see him. Especially, when Kris Bryant comes up which I suspect will be a September call up barring injury. No one is saying it is set in stone, but if Baez keeps raking the Cubs have no choice but to bring him up and sticking him in the minors to save his super 2 status sends a bad signal to players and fan base. Cubs arent the Rays. They dont need that extra year of control on a player.

 

[Boobaby1]

No one is rushing him. Baez has forced himself into this position. Theo and them wanted 500 at bats at every level for a player, but things changed when Baez destroyed the leagues. He has forced them to keep promoting him. Fans had nothing to do with him going through two levels last year. That was Theo and scouts and coaches who made that choice. Also, no gain? The Cubs are setup to put out the worst team they have had under Theo. Attendance is going to go down again.

Guess what you can use as a marketing ploy? The next big thing. The uber prospect Javier Baez. Him coming to Wrigley would bring people out just to see him. Especially, when Kris Bryant comes up which I suspect will be a September call up barring injury. No one is saying it is set in stone, but if Baez keeps raking the Cubs have no choice but to bring him up and sticking him in the minors to save his super 2 status sends a bad signal to players and fan base. Cubs arent the Rays. They dont need that extra year of control on a player.

If you think Baez would put fans in the stands in July, what do you think a combination of Tanaka and Baez would do as far as the buzz
around Wrigley this year? opcorn:

 

[beckdawg]

No one is rushing him. Baez has forced himself into this position. Theo and them wanted 500 at bats at every level for a player, but things changed when Baez destroyed the leagues. He has forced them to keep promoting him. Fans had nothing to do with him going through two levels last year. That was Theo and scouts and coaches who made that choice. Also, no gain? The Cubs are setup to put out the worst team they have had under Theo. Attendance is going to go down again. Guess what you can use as a marketing ploy? The next big thing. The uber prospect Javier Baez. Him coming to Wrigley would bring people out just to see him. Especially, when Kris Bryant comes up which I suspect will be a September call up barring injury. No one is saying it is set in stone, but if Baez keeps raking the Cubs have no choice but to bring him up and sticking him in the minors to save his super 2 status sends a bad signal to players and fan base. Cubs arent the Rays. They dont need that extra year of control on a player.

You're talking about around 100 ABs between when you want him called up and when the super 2 cut off would be. You really think 100 AB is going to change the cubs attendance in a dramatic fashion? That's maybe 20-25 games of which half are home games. Even if you say he brings in 3k more people for those games it's a change of what 35k tickets? You're acting like I'm saying keep him down there for the next 2 years. Also how is it not rushing him? I've just shown numerous prospects who've destroyed the minors to an equal level from a various selection of teams who were in the minors for significantly more time.

And for crying out loud Baez struck out 28.8% of the time in AA. When you consider he's only had 970 minor league PAs that's not that surprising but are you seriously going to try and tell me that's going to get better when he moves up to better pitching in the majors? Pedro Alvarez is one of the 12 players who struck out more than 25% of the time last year. In AA he struck out 22.9% and in AAA he struck out 24.5%. In 4 years in the majors he's never been below 30% k rate. Giancarlo Stanton is another of the 12. In his last season at AA he struck out 22.1%. In his years with the marlins Stanton has been 28-31%. If you're using those two as any indication you're likely talking 32%+ for Baez.

So, let's not act like he's some flawless prospect that has nothing left to work on. And that's before we even talk about his defense. He had 41 errors last year. I'm not saying either his k rate or errors are set in stone just that it's crap he needs to work on. And if he has stuff left to work on why would you do it in the majors where it costs you money down the line?

 

[brett05]

And if he has stuff left to work on why would you do it in the majors where it costs you money down the line?

It only costs more if you have a player worth paying.

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[TL1961]

It's crazy to assume home attendance increase the minute you bring a guy up from the minors. And if it does, and, as stated, might be half of 25 games, how does that $ compare to paying him millions one yer sooner? Not even close.

Beckdawg is correct - even IF he's definitely worthy of a call up in 2014, it makes no sense to bring him up before the Super 2 cutoff. (When would that be? Mid June?)

And that's IF he's worthy of a call up.

I hope to see him in Wrigley soon. But not before it makes sense.

 

[SilenceS]

You're talking about around 100 ABs between when you want him called up and when the super 2 cut off would be. You really think 100 AB is going to change the cubs attendance in a dramatic fashion? That's maybe 20-25 games of which half are home games. Even if you say he brings in 3k more people for those games it's a change of what 35k tickets? You're acting like I'm saying keep him down there for the next 2 years. Also how is it not rushing him? I've just shown numerous prospects who've destroyed the minors to an equal level from a various selection of teams who were in the minors for significantly more time.

And for crying out loud Baez struck out 28.8% of the time in AA. When you consider he's only had 970 minor league PAs that's not that surprising but are you seriously going to try and tell me that's going to get better when he moves up to better pitching in the majors? Pedro Alvarez is one of the 12 players who struck out more than 25% of the time last year. In AA he struck out 22.9% and in AAA he struck out 24.5%. In 4 years in the majors he's never been below 30% k rate. Giancarlo Stanton is another of the 12. In his last season at AA he struck out 22.1%. In his years with the marlins Stanton has been 28-31%. If you're using those two as any indication you're likely talking 32%+ for Baez.

So, let's not act like he's some flawless prospect that has nothing left to work on. And that's before we even talk about his defense. He had 41 errors last year. I'm not saying either his k rate or errors are set in stone just that it's crap he needs to work on. And if he has stuff left to work on why would you do it in the majors where it costs you money down the line?

And yet again, you keep ignoring what actually scouts say will be his challenge. This is the difference between straight saber guys and guys who actually watch the prospect. I never even cam close to saying he is perfect. I said that scouts believe he will not be challenged in AAA. Its the majors that they have to see if he will boom or bust. Also, his errors mean absolutely nothing if he keeps hitting. They would just stick his ass in left field and let him hit. Bat outweighs defense by a mile.

 

[brett05]

I hope to see him in Wrigley soon. But not before it makes sense.

That's the part that you and beckdawg keep missing. Money has nothing to do with it.

If hes ready he should be up. Period.


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[SilenceS]

Also, comparing players at the minor league level means nothing. You are just using numbers and not using real comparisons. Why did they strike out? Was it over aggressiveness? Was it a hole in their swing? Are they strictly a pull hitter? They are so many variables to why players do what they do that comparing based off numbers makes comparing them impossible.

 

[SilenceS]

It's crazy to assume home attendance increase the minute you bring a guy up from the minors. And if it does, and, as stated, might be half of 25 games, how does that $ compare to paying him millions one yer sooner? Not even close.

Beckdawg is correct - even IF he's definitely worthy of a call up in 2014, it makes no sense to bring him up before the Super 2 cutoff. (When would that be? Mid June?)

And that's IF he's worthy of a call up.

I hope to see him in Wrigley soon. But not before it makes sense.

I would bet money that the attendance for home games would go up if Baez came up. What the **** else would get you excited on this Cubs team.

 

[SilenceS]

Let me be clear, I have no problem with Baez staying in the minors if he is not producing at a high level. My stance is if he rakes in AAA then there is no real reason to hold him back. He isnt blocked and the Cubs are going to be desperate for hitting. Like I said, I think he will be up by June or July. Now, people are going over board on bringing up Bryant around that time as well. I can only see him coming up at the earliest in September.

 

[beckdawg]

And yet again, you keep ignoring what actually scouts say will be his challenge. This is the difference between straight saber guys and guys who actually watch the prospect. I never even cam close to saying he is perfect. I said that scouts believe he will not be challenged in AAA. Its the majors that they have to see if he will boom or bust. Also, his errors mean absolutely nothing if he keeps hitting. They would just stick his ass in left field and let him hit. Bat outweighs defense by a mile.

For the errors, like I've said if you're in the playoff hunt and simply don't have the offense to make it then sure throw him in LF and try to ride his bat to the playoffs. But, he's eventually going to have to improve that to be an every day player that isn't killing you defensively. You and I both know there's a drastic difference in value between someone hitting 30-35 HR's in LF and hitting 30-35 HR at SS. And as I've said, the cubs have almost 0 chance to be in the situation where they need to ride his bat. So, why wouldn't you take the extra time to work on his fielding? And if you're making that call to play him in the majors as you suggest then he's never going back to SS if his defense doesn't improve. That's a bigger decision than something you just decide on a whim.

As for for what the scouts say, if you find one that sees a guy who struck out 28.8% of the time at AA and said he's ready for major league pitching I'd be shocked. This isn't just some minor detail. If you look at players since 1980 on fangraphs there's been 4 players with 20+ WAR and 25%+ K rate and those are B.J. Upton - 21.3, Mike Napoli - 23.1, Ryan Howard - 20.4, Adam Dunn - 23. Certainly we're all expect Baez to be more than those 4. You can say AA isn't challenging him but clearly it is to some extent because he's striking out nearly 1/3 of the time.

You seem to be making the argument that unless he sees MLB pitching he can't improve. That is to say, you're pointing towards scouts who say AA/AAA pitching wont challenge him and drawing the conclusion that means he needs to see MLB to progress right? If that's the case then I think you're making a mistake. I will agree that MLB pitching will expose his weaknesses(more scouting reports but whatever) thus giving him something to work on. However, I'd also argue you can expose many of those same weaknesses by spending time in the minors. For example, how many of the pitchers he has faced in the minors have seen him more than once? With 970ish PAs there's probably next to no book on him. Will the minors show if he can consistently hit a 97 fast ball or a sick 12-6 curve? Probably not. But if he has a hole some where in his swing it will be found over time at minors or the majors.

I don't know if his k rate is an issue with a hole in his swing or poor strike zone command. But clearly it's something the organization should already know needs working on. All I'm saying is you give him 1/2 a year in AAA, call him up post super-2 and see what happens. I'm guessing if he hasn't figured out is k rate issues he'll struggle and he'll have something to work on in AAA in 2015. If he doesn't then great. He probably makes the team out of ST in 2015. The difference between that and what you're suggesting is 100 ABs like I said. In the grand scheme that's peanuts. If nothing else it's several more games to hopefully keep him at SS instead of moving him off that valuable position for something less valuable.

 

[SilenceS]

I will say that I have read quote that a MLB executive said Baez is the most aggressive player at the plate he has ever seen. If he learns better pitch recognition, that could be a great thing. If he doesnt, that could be a bad thing. I think Miggy ended the season with over a 1.300 OPS on first pitches last year. They can pitch to Baez with breaking balls. Thats what people think could stop him and thats why the majors is what everyone is waiting to see. Can he lay off ML breaking balls? We will find out soon enough.

 

[chibears55]

funny cause I recall people saying the same thing about castro, worrying about bringing him up because of ARB..

castro had just over 1000 ABs in minors and never sniffed AAA because he was just dominating AA, and it was time to see him do his stuff in the majors..
Baez has over 900 ABs now, he broke out with power last year.. IF he continues to hit in Apr and May there no reason to hold him back..

If you have a special player in your system and he not being blocked your going to want to bring him up and get as many ABs/PT as he can in the majors to gain experience, especially in a lost season..
Bryce Harper at 19 had only 536 PA in minors and didn't put up as good of numbers as Baez but he obviously showed he was ready and belonged..
special players will get the call up and ARB does not matter, because those players are looked at as long term main stays..

IF Baez a great player, he going to get paid and whether its sooner or later it doesn't really matter because your looking to tie him up long term like castro and Rizzo.
ill bet the farm that if Baez comes up and puts up solid numbers this year and next year, they will be offering him pretty much the same contract they gave castro and Rizzo after next season and tie him up for 7 yrs.

kris Bryant is a different animal, he has just 146 PA in the minors but he has 4 yrs of college ball experience,.. wouldn't surprise me if he starts in AA and depending on how he plays will depend on when they bring him up.. could be June/July or Aug./Sept, but like Baez he has shown so far that he a special talent and if he hits he will be brought up.

just seems funny that its mostly the fans who are worried about players and their ARBs years and teams having to pay..
I agree for most players coming out that they should/could wait, but not for the ones that looks to be special...

 

[brett05]

For the errors, like I've said if you're in the playoff hunt and simply don't have the offense to make it then sure throw him in LF and try to ride his bat to the playoffs. But, he's eventually going to have to improve that to be an every day player that isn't killing you defensively. You and I both know there's a drastic difference in value between someone hitting 30-35 HR's in LF and hitting 30-35 HR at SS. And as I've said, the cubs have almost 0 chance to be in the situation where they need to ride his bat. So, why wouldn't you take the extra time to work on his fielding? And if you're making that call to play him in the majors as you suggest then he's never going back to SS if his defense doesn't improve. That's a bigger decision than something you just decide on a whim.

As for for what the scouts say, if you find one that sees a guy who struck out 28.8% of the time at AA and said he's ready for major league pitching I'd be shocked. This isn't just some minor detail. If you look at players since 1980 on fangraphs there's been 4 players with 20+ WAR and 25%+ K rate and those are B.J. Upton - 21.3, Mike Napoli - 23.1, Ryan Howard - 20.4, Adam Dunn - 23. Certainly we're all expect Baez to be more than those 4.

Wait people think that Baez will be better than a potential hall of famer in Dunn and a terror pre injury in Howard????


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[The Bandit]

Wait people think that Baez will be better than a potential hall of famer in Dunn and a terror pre injury in Howard????


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:jawdrop:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

uke:

 

[beckdawg]

funny cause I recall people saying the same thing about castro, worrying about bringing him up because of ARB..

castro had just over 1000 ABs in minors and never sniffed AAA because he was just dominating AA, and it was time to see him do his stuff in the majors..
Baez has over 900 ABs now, he broke out with power last year.. IF he continues to hit in Apr and May there no reason to hold him back..

If you have a special player in your system and he not being blocked your going to want to bring him up and get as many ABs/PT as he can in the majors to gain experience, especially in a lost season..
Bryce Harper at 19 had only 536 PA in minors and didn't put up as good of numbers as Baez but he obviously showed he was ready and belonged..
special players will get the call up and ARB does not matter, because those players are looked at as long term main stays..

IF Baez a great player, he going to get paid and whether its sooner or later it doesn't really matter because your looking to tie him up long term like castro and Rizzo.
ill bet the farm that if Baez comes up and puts up solid numbers this year and next year, they will be offering him pretty much the same contract they gave castro and Rizzo after next season and tie him up for 7 yrs.

kris Bryant is a different animal, he has just 146 PA in the minors but he has 4 yrs of college ball experience,.. wouldn't surprise me if he starts in AA and depending on how he plays will depend on when they bring him up.. could be June/July or Aug./Sept, but like Baez he has shown so far that he a special talent and if he hits he will be brought up.

just seems funny that its mostly the fans who are worried about players and their ARBs years and teams having to pay..
I agree for most players coming out that they should/could wait, but not for the ones that looks to be special...

I already cover Harper. He graduated high school early to play juco which in reality is similar to college or low level minors. Between that and his actual minors he was at around 1k PAs. He was also beyond a shadow more highly viewed by scouts. To put it into perspective, in 305 PAs in A ball he hit 14 HRs stole 19 bases had a 14.4%/20.0% while hitting .318/.423/.554 as an 18 year old. I like Baez as much as the next guy but to compare the two is silly. If Baez had 10% walk and 20% K rate after the season he had at AA I think the argument is worth discussing but even then I don't necessarily agree that the extra month in the majors makes any difference. But the facts are he didn't have a 20% k rate he had a 28.8% k rate.

I'm not trying to beat that point into the ground but you ask any person who follows prospects what is the #1 problem with hitting prospects who bust and they will tell you putting the ball into play be it contact issues or k's. The stats back this up because the entire concept of BABIP is that any ball put into play has around a .300 avg. Thus, the more contact you make generally the higher average you have. And to follow that up the higher average/on base you have the more runs you create thus the better player you are.

It's interesting you bring Castro up. I'd argue they erred in bringing him up that soon. Nearly every year he's been in the majors his k rate has gone up and every year he's been in the majors is on base has gone down. That's not a good sign for someone who's supposed to be a lead off/#2 hitter. This front office actively tried to encourage him to learn to walk more in the majors and it entirely blew up in their face. Is that the reason for the decline? Hard to say one way or another. But what it does say is that trying to fix an issue at the major league level often just doesn't work. Clearly Baez striking out at a 28.8% clip is an issue that needs some fixing.

All i'm saying is I'd rather see him spend an extra half year or whatever in AAA working on that and his defense and get it right rather than seeing him bounce up and down between the majors and the minors. How often do top Cardinals prospects bounce around? How often do Tampa's highly touted players bounce around? I would argue the reason these teams are so successful at building internally is they give more than ample time to their prospects in the minors.

If that's how you feel there's nothing more I can really say. But I will say them calling up Baez too soon scares the crap out of me. He's already classified by many as a boom or bust type based on his skill set. When I see he's striking out a lot in the minors that scares me even more. So when I hear people wanting to see him in the majors before he's even had 1500 minor league PAs it down right scares the crap out of me. What happens if he comes up and struggles a la Jackson/Vitters? Does he lose confidence? If he bounces up and down like some prospects do you go from needing maybe 1 more year of minors to 2-3 before he's ready. That's the reason I hate when teams bring up a guy too soon.