The Front Office And Ownership Thread

[beckdawg]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2056155-mlb-trade-ideas-that-could-actually-happen

Really can't see the cubs doing this. Castillo maybe 27 but he's also cost controlled for quite some time and not really a bad catcher. Report seems like it's written from the yankees prospect of how they could possibly get it done rather than what the cubs would be wanting which is what it will take to get a deal done.

 

[diavolos]

great, thanks for sharing an article of a purely hypothetical situation written by a columnist writing for an online magazine. cause if we know anything, he knows what he's talking about. since the writer quoted baseball america, we all know they're paragons of analysis too. because baseball america predicted in 1997 that the pirates had the best farm system in baseball. and they ended up with the third worst record in baseball over the next decade. but hey, they were third. when was the last time the cubs were third in anything. or that the rank correlation of baseball america farm system rankings and actual real-world success of .24 is like incredibly awesome, with 0 being no correlation and 1 being total correlation.

meanwhile in reality...

12-21, 106 years and counting. but hey, 2018's shaping up to be an awesome year.

 

[The Bandit]

great, thanks for sharing an article of a purely hypothetical situation written by a columnist writing for an online magazine. cause if we know anything, he knows what he's talking about. since the writer quoted baseball america, we all know they're paragons of analysis too. because baseball america predicted in 1997 that the pirates had the best farm system in baseball. and they ended up with the third worst record in baseball over the next decade. but hey, they were third. when was the last time the cubs were third in anything. or that the rank correlation of baseball america farm system rankings and actual real-world success of .24 is like incredibly awesome, with 0 being no correlation and 1 being total correlation.

meanwhile in reality...

12-21, 106 years and counting. but hey, 2018's shaping up to be an awesome year.

I saw the article, I shared it. Are you the second coming of D3A? It's like a 10 year old is responding with completely idiotic content. Grow the hell up for christ sake. My reality is that basketball playoffs are on and the Cubs are more then a year from being contenders. Accept it and move on punkster. For fucksake it's like I'm back in high school all over again, dealing with little shit's like you.

 

[diavolos]

I saw the article, I shared it. Are you the second coming of D3A? It's like a 10 year old is responding with completely idiotic content. Grow the hell up for christ sake. My reality is that basketball playoffs are on and the Cubs are more then a year from being contenders. Accept it and move on punkster. For fucksake it's like I'm back in high school all over again, dealing with little shit's like you.

i thanked you for sharing the article. and i was criticizing the writer and baseball america.

so why are you all pouty about it?

here are the top ten prospects the pirates had in 1997, the best farm system that year according to baseball america...

1997 Top 10 Prospects MLB Stats: W L ERA G GS SV IP H HR BB SO Whip H9 BB9 SO9
Rank Player Pos Team Current Status HiLvl Years G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
1 Kris Benson P Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2010 70 75 4.42 206 200 0 1244 1292 152 441 806 1.39 9.35 3.19 5.83
2 Chad Hermansen CF-RF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1995-2007 189 492 49 96 23 2 13 34 38 168 9 .195 .255 .329 584
3 Aramis Ramirez 3B Pittsburgh Pirates MIL 40m MLB 1996-2014 1932 7202 1009 2059 442 22 354 1283 581 1100 26 .286 .345 .501 846
4 Jose Guillen RF-LF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2010 1650 5888 748 1591 305 25 214 887 321 1103 31 .270 .321 .440 761
5 Ron Wright 1B Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2004 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .000 .000 0
6 Abraham Nunez SS-2B Pittsburgh Pirates Hitting Coach - Burlington (2013) MLB 1996-2011 1030 2486 286 601 88 19 18 209 250 447 38 .242 .313 .314 627
7 Jimmy Anderson P Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2006 25 47 5.42 122 96 1 575 672 58 240 241 1.59 10.52 3.76 3.77
8 Lou Collier SS-LF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1993-2007 315 713 89 172 33 7 8 78 75 160 12 .241 .317 .341 658
9 Elvin Hernandez P Pittsburgh Pirates Retired AA 1995-1999 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10 Charles Peterson OF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired AAA 1993-2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0

how many world series between them do you venture to guess?

were you even alive in 1997?

 

[diavolos]

and i'm not claiming that i know anything.....except what i see. and the last two years have been the two worst in the history of the franchise. and this year, the cubs are already out of it. they're actually farther away from winning a championship than if they had kept alfonso soriano on the team, the albatross himself, not actually closer to a championship. and now, you share an article about how they should trade their best pitcher, because they might as well suck worse than they already do.

sorry, i'm not down. but i'm sure you can find lots of writers, some of whom even post here, that agree that the organization is on the right track.

 

[beckdawg]

Every day I am on this board this is me...

[video=youtube;xzpndHtdl9A]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzpndHtdl9A[/video]

 

[brett05]

i thanked you for sharing the article. and i was criticizing the writer and baseball america.

so why are you all pouty about it?

here are the top ten prospects the pirates had in 1997, the best farm system that year according to baseball america...

1997 Top 10 Prospects MLB Stats: W L ERA G GS SV IP H HR BB SO Whip H9 BB9 SO9
Rank Player Pos Team Current Status HiLvl Years G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
1 Kris Benson P Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2010 70 75 4.42 206 200 0 1244 1292 152 441 806 1.39 9.35 3.19 5.83
2 Chad Hermansen CF-RF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1995-2007 189 492 49 96 23 2 13 34 38 168 9 .195 .255 .329 584
3 Aramis Ramirez 3B Pittsburgh Pirates MIL 40m MLB 1996-2014 1932 7202 1009 2059 442 22 354 1283 581 1100 26 .286 .345 .501 846
4 Jose Guillen RF-LF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2010 1650 5888 748 1591 305 25 214 887 321 1103 31 .270 .321 .440 761
5 Ron Wright 1B Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2004 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .000 .000 0
6 Abraham Nunez SS-2B Pittsburgh Pirates Hitting Coach - Burlington (2013) MLB 1996-2011 1030 2486 286 601 88 19 18 209 250 447 38 .242 .313 .314 627
7 Jimmy Anderson P Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2006 25 47 5.42 122 96 1 575 672 58 240 241 1.59 10.52 3.76 3.77
8 Lou Collier SS-LF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1993-2007 315 713 89 172 33 7 8 78 75 160 12 .241 .317 .341 658
9 Elvin Hernandez P Pittsburgh Pirates Retired AA 1995-1999 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10 Charles Peterson OF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired AAA 1993-2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0

how many world series between them do you venture to guess?

were you even alive in 1997?

A lot of 10+ year major leaguers there with one having a just miss hall of fame career

 

[diavolos]

A lot of 10+ year major leaguers there with one having a just miss hall of fame career

and yet...

2007 68 94
2006 67 95
2005 67 95
2004 72 89
2003 75 87
2002 72 89
2001 62 100
2000 69 93
1999 78 83
1998 69 93

 

[SilenceS]

and yet...

2007 68 94
2006 67 95
2005 67 95
2004 72 89
2003 75 87
2002 72 89
2001 62 100
2000 69 93
1999 78 83
1998 69 93

The front office traded away there best players. Fuck, the Cubs stole Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton from them. The Pirates were one of the worst run franchises with no money. Everyone knows most prospects fail. You didnt really make a point. Just because a prospect fails for one team doesnt mean a prospect fails for another. Cardinals have been great at it. The Rays. Shit, the Marlins have produced incredible players but traded them off because of money. Do you know how stacked the Marlins would have been for years if they just would have kept there prospects. The Expo's same thing. People act like no major leaguer was ever a prospect. They must of fell of the FA tree and just skipped all that prospect bullshit.

 

[diavolos]

You didnt really make a point.

actually you made several points for me.

The Pirates were one of the worst run franchises with no money.

were they? they seemed to be the model that so many here aspire to. stacked farm system equates to championships. right? isn't that what you and the others harp on. "just wait until our prospects come up"? THEN, we'll win a championship. but yet in the same sentence you mention money.

Everyone knows most prospects fail.

well duh. so why do you think that without spending money the cubs are going to win a championship with just their prospects?

Shit, the Marlins have produced incredible players but traded them off because of money.

notice how again you mention money. and yet what's the common denominator for when the marlins actually won 2 championships. could it be....money?

fine, bring in your fancy draft and your prospects and your sabermetrics and your two world series rings from boston. until the cubs spend money to win, there will be no championship forthcoming.

 

[diavolos]

another list for you...
1. LA Dodgers $235,295,219
2. NY Yankees $203,812,506
3. Philadelphia Phillies $180,052,723
4. Boston Red Sox $162,817,411
5. Detroit Tigers $162,228,527
6. LA Angels $155,692,000
7. San Francisco Giants $154,185,878
8. Texas Rangers $136,036,172
9. Washington Nationals $134,704,437
10. Toronto Blue Jays $132,628,700
11. Arizona Diamondbacks $112,688,666
12. Cincinnati Reds $112,390,772
13. St. Louis Cardinals $111,020,360
14. Atlanta Braves $110,897,341
15. Baltimore Orioles $107,406,623
16. Milwaukee Brewers $103,844,806
17. Colorado Rockies $95,832,071
18. Seattle Mariners $92,081,943
19. Kansas City Royals $92,034,345
20. Chicago White Sox $91,159,254
21. San Diego Padres $90,094,196
22. NY Mets $89,051,758
23. Chicago Cubs $89,007,857
24. Minnesota Twins $85,776,500
25. Oakland A's $83,401,400
26. Cleveland Indians $82,534,800
27. Pittsburgh Pirates $78,111,667
28. Tampa Bay Rays $77,062,891
29. Miami Marlins $47,565,400
30. Houston Astros $44,544,174

 

[SilenceS]

actually you made several points for me.



were they? they seemed to be the model that so many here aspire to. stacked farm system equates to championships. right? isn't that what you and the others harp on. "just wait until our prospects come up"? THEN, we'll win a championship. but yet in the same sentence you mention money.



well duh. so why do you think that without spending money the cubs are going to win a championship with just their prospects?



notice how again you mention money. and yet what's the common denominator for when the marlins actually won 2 championships. could it be....money?

fine, bring in your fancy draft and your prospects and your sabermetrics and your two world series rings from boston. until the cubs spend money to win, there will be no championship forthcoming.

The Marlins would have probably won more if they would have kept their prospects. Also, you keep going back to Theo and money. Thats Ricketts. No one else. You still are trying to make a comparison that really makes no comparison.

 

[MRubio52]

Anyone read the BR article on potential trades? Has shark going to the Yanks for Sanchez, Hensley, and two others I believe. Think it would get the deal done?

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No, I don't think it would.


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[beckdawg]

What I don't get is why whenever this topic comes up daily people never want to talk about the Mets who have done the same damn thing the cubs did as though the cubs are the only cheap team in the league who's gone through a rebuild. Maybe it's just a case of selective notice but it doesn't ever feel like the mets get brought up as being a cheap team yet there they are 50k higher than the cubs. They even have better revenue streams and one of the better cores in Wright. Yet they traded away a cy young winner. They cut salary.

Simply put the cubs aren't the yankees and no matter what people may want they never will be. Hell, Boston wasn't even the yankees when theo was there to the point where that cost them getting A-rod. Even if they were, what's Ellsbury and McCann do for this team? Maybe makes them a .500 team? Like it or not the cubs need the prospects to come through because they aren't buying their way out of sucking.

 

[The Bandit]

i thanked you for sharing the article. and i was criticizing the writer and baseball america.

so why are you all pouty about it?

here are the top ten prospects the pirates had in 1997, the best farm system that year according to baseball america...

1997 Top 10 Prospects MLB Stats: W L ERA G GS SV IP H HR BB SO Whip H9 BB9 SO9
Rank Player Pos Team Current Status HiLvl Years G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
1 Kris Benson P Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2010 70 75 4.42 206 200 0 1244 1292 152 441 806 1.39 9.35 3.19 5.83
2 Chad Hermansen CF-RF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1995-2007 189 492 49 96 23 2 13 34 38 168 9 .195 .255 .329 584
3 Aramis Ramirez 3B Pittsburgh Pirates MIL 40m MLB 1996-2014 1932 7202 1009 2059 442 22 354 1283 581 1100 26 .286 .345 .501 846
4 Jose Guillen RF-LF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2010 1650 5888 748 1591 305 25 214 887 321 1103 31 .270 .321 .440 761
5 Ron Wright 1B Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2004 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .000 .000 0
6 Abraham Nunez SS-2B Pittsburgh Pirates Hitting Coach - Burlington (2013) MLB 1996-2011 1030 2486 286 601 88 19 18 209 250 447 38 .242 .313 .314 627
7 Jimmy Anderson P Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1994-2006 25 47 5.42 122 96 1 575 672 58 240 241 1.59 10.52 3.76 3.77
8 Lou Collier SS-LF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired MLB 1993-2007 315 713 89 172 33 7 8 78 75 160 12 .241 .317 .341 658
9 Elvin Hernandez P Pittsburgh Pirates Retired AA 1995-1999 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10 Charles Peterson OF Pittsburgh Pirates Retired AAA 1993-2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0

how many world series between them do you venture to guess?

were you even alive in 1997?

Was born in 92, if you must know. I didn't start following the team until 06, which I have stated before. Nice try on the insults though.

 

[Sunbiz1]

What I don't get is why whenever this topic comes up daily people never want to talk about the Mets who have done the same damn thing the cubs did as though the cubs are the only cheap team in the league who's gone through a rebuild. Maybe it's just a case of selective notice but it doesn't ever feel like the mets get brought up as being a cheap team yet there they are 50k higher than the cubs. They even have better revenue streams and one of the better cores in Wright. Yet they traded away a cy young winner. They cut salary.

Simply put the cubs aren't the yankees and no matter what people may want they never will be. Hell, Boston wasn't even the yankees when theo was there to the point where that cost them getting A-rod. Even if they were, what's Ellsbury and McCann do for this team? Maybe makes them a .500 team? Like it or not the cubs need the prospects to come through because they aren't buying their way out of sucking.

Question 4/you if you would be so kind.

How have the Braves managed for over 2 decades to successfully grow so much of their own talent?.

Legit question, not being a smartass.

That's a long run of developing successful prospects, and a model the Cubs should be/are? using.

 

[beckdawg]

Question 4/you if you would be so kind.

How have the Braves managed for over 2 decades to successfully grow so much of their own talent?.

Legit question, not being a smartass.

That's a long run of developing successful prospects, and a model the Cubs should be/are? using.

Hopefully that's what the cubs are doing. In my opinion, what people seem to forget is you can't just achieve that over night. The previous regime of the cubs were a very top heavy in terms of salary distribution. This is what their 2011 opening day budget looked like

Total: $134,004,000
Soriano - $19,000,000
Zambrano - $18,875,000
Ramirez - $14,600,000
Dempster - $14,500,000
Fukudome - $14,500,000
Pena - $10,000,000

No one else made over $7 mil. Those 6 players combined to make $91.475 mil of their $134 mil payroll or 68%. If you look at a team like Tampa, their top 6 this year are making $48 mil of 76.8 or 62.5%. Atlanta this year is $68.86 of $112 mil or 61%. So, that's before you consider the fact that many of those players from the 2011 cubs weren't worth that sort of salary. What they ended up doing likely because ownership told them to cut the budget was to essentially cut off a limb in 2012 which meant Ramirez and Pena both left via FA. They traded Zambrano and tried to recoup whatever they could. They tried to trade Soriano but it was vetoed and obviously later did. They traded Dempster and Fukudome was also let walk as a FA.

So, they quickly worked to turn around some of that top heavy aspect of their salary in some cases good(Zambrano, Fukudome) and in some cases at a cost to wins that year(Ramirez, Dempster). However, that left them in a really crappy situation in 2012 of having to cheaply field a team. We saw the Maholms and the Ian Stewarts that year who may have had some upside but were really cheap short term solutions to the problem of having to field a roster. The other problem is there was very little talent in AA and AAA. At the time Jackson and Vitters were fairly highly regarded but neither has had any impact in the majors. For example, who have they pulled out of the minors the past 2 years. Lake? Castillo? Rusin? Pretty slim pickings.

Now back to the initial point of an Atlana-like farm driven team. It obviously starts with drafting well something Hendry appears to have done in his final year. That draft is starting to hit AA for lessor prospects and AAA for guys like Baez and Alcantara. The past 2 drafts under Theo appear to have been good given that thus far there's not any painfully obvious busts. So, there's guys following the last Hendry draft. If you look at the other aspect I talked about with payroll distribution, the opening day cubs had $37.7 mil on their top 6 players of their total $90.6 which is 41.6% though in reality it's more like 49% since they have $14 mil in dead money from the Soriano trade. That's a bit misleading given Shark is still in arbitration as well as Wood but if you say Shark's a $15 mil/year guy and Woods $12 mil/year on their hopefully soon extensions you're looking at another $18 mil which pushes them a lot closer to that low 60's.

Going forward, some prospects are going to disappoint. It's going to happen. However, let's say Bryant is the goods. They are going to lock him up to a very team friendly long term deal similar to what has been done with Rizzo and Castro. That creates a very cheap player for the production he is giving you. That in turn frees up payroll to bring in vets via FA. A lot of these farm driven teams never bother getting into the top 5-10 FAs. What they will do is bring in a solid guy in the $10-15 mil range. Because those players aren't a huge chunk of your payroll if they end up not working out or if you finally get a prospect to replace them it's easy to get out from under their contracts often because they are 3-4 years vs 6-7 or longer for top FAs. Taking this even farther, eventually if Bryant is the good he's going to play out that cheap team friendly deal. By having the flexibility in payroll without huge $20 mil 6-7 year deals you can afford to bring someone like Bryant back if you think he's the guy going forward.

I personally love that style of management. That's why I said I really like Dan Harren this off season at around $10 mil/year on a 2-3 year deal and why I was scared by someone like Tanaka possibly getting more than $25 mil/year for 7-8 years. This is why the Yankees have for the longest time been playing a different game than every other team. When they've made mistakes ownership has given them the money to buy away their problems. Take for example AJ Burnett. They decided he wasn't the guy anymore so they paid a bunch of money($11.5 mil) on his deal to trade him to the Pirates. They then gave Kuroda $15 mil to replace him. So, they ended up paying around $26.5 mil to fix their problem. That's 1/5th of the budget for teams outside the top 10. Most, if any, teams can't do that.

 

[chibears55]

Question 4/you if you would be so kind.

How have the Braves managed for over 2 decades to successfully grow so much of their own talent?.

Legit question, not being a smartass.

That's a long run of developing successful prospects, and a model the Cubs should be/are? using.

The cubs should of been doing what the braves and cardinal have done but since Dallas Greene was let go no one continued what he started. .
They had another opportunity in the early 2000 when they hit on some prospects and built up a solid team but once again the system got somewhat ignored as it turned into adding overpaid FAs over developing kids in their system.

It took 5 yrs to get back in playoffs in 08 and 09 but because they basically ignored the system and had a roster built up mostly of high cost vets with no trade clauses they were basically stuck with what they had which ended up in back to back 90 lost seasons and a change in management..

Now in 2 yrs under new management the system has improved and hopefully they continue to keep improving the system going forward. .
The parent team got dismantled due in large part of ownership needing to lower payroll because of agreement with Zell and whether you agree/like it or not its the quickest way to get top talented closer to major league ready players when you draft top 5..

despite the first 3 yrs of losing , they are headed in the direction of the braves n Cardinals way by stocking the system with good talent. .
In the next 2-3 yrs we will start seeing results from the system and should start seeing them add via trades and FAs to position of needs..

Hopefully we will see consistent year to year playoff runs instead of just 2-3 appearances every decade.

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[beckdawg]

As a follow up, I probably didn't answer the initial question well enough as I sorta went on a tangent. As I said, you have to draft well to be Atlanta. You can have a down year but you can't have multiple in a row. If you do then you're in some trouble because what you don't add via the draft you have to buy and as I said above, the idea is that you supplement your drafts with missing pieces not the other way around. FA's are clearly expensive.

What I'm curious to see and don't really have an answer for is one of the way the Theo sox exploited a system was by trading for players and letting them walk to get compensation picks. So for example if some team was selling off a guy who could help you down the stretch and you have a prospect you're not enamored with you could deal him for the guy who could help your major league team and then let that guy walk and get a pick in the 30's and possibly two if they were a type a player. You also could over slot players more in drafts because there were no limits on spending. Both those two ways are gone.

So, I'm honestly not sure if you're going to have 15-20 year runs for team in quite the same way going forward because it's much much harder to draft low and bring in the same quality of players you could in the past. That also extends to IFA as spending there is also limited on your wins. When you add that in with teams not letting as much talent hit FA anymore it's really hard to add pieces if you don't have them. The best GM's over the next 5-10 years are probably going to have to be able to trade quite well. That's one of the few places where you can get a starter like Travis Wood for cheap salary and only giving up a bullpen arm to do so. Teams that can recognize talent that other teams are missing or can find some way to get talent out of players that other teams can't are probably the teams who'll do well going forward though that's really not a revolutionary statement.

When we talk about someone like Bosio that makes me happy because he has some magic and is able to pull a lot out of guys who were after thoughts for most teams. I wish the cubs had that sort of track record on hitting too but thus far they haven't.

 

[MRubio52]

The CBA was also largely different before Theo took over and was much., MUCH more conducive to rebuilding while competing.

That's a different story tho


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