The Jon Lester Discussion Thread

[DewsSox79]

It would be incredibly stupid to pay Lester $170M over 7-years. If that is what it takes - we pass. We've methodically deconstructed the entire organization from top to bottom and no way do we blow our load on an idiotic deal like that. Paying Lester $24M/year at age 38 is crazy.

If LA offered $160M over 6 years - I'm not even sure I'd match that. I'd probably do 6-years and $145M. There comes a point when you walk away and move on to the next target.

140/6 tops. this bidding can get real stupid. the pitching market is going to sky rocket again. 7 years 170 is stupid. let some other team do that.


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[chibears55]

140/6 tops. this bidding can get real stupid. the pitching market is going to sky rocket again. 7 years 170 is stupid. let some other team do that.


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I agree, as much as id like to see them add lester anything more then 25 per is crazy .. id be ok with the 7th yr even at age 38 cause by then 25 mil will prob be like 17/18 today .. im sure there will be quite a few 30+ mil per deals done by then..


I actually wouldn't be surprised if baseball was forced to have a salary cap by then. ...

 

[Boobaby1]

140/6 tops. this bidding can get real stupid. the pitching market is going to sky rocket again. 7 years 170 is stupid. let some other team do that.


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Well if this is what Lester might command, what in the hell is Scherzer going to get if Lester signs first?

Philly might be liking this, because teams that fail to sign Lester might jump at the chance to try and land Hamels in panic, which there are only a handful of teams that have the inventory to do so.

A team might have to consider giving up some of its commodities even though they might be cost controlled to land a pitcher like Hamels for 5/120 if the last year option is put in.

On the other hand, they can force Philly to sit on Hamels and make them have to pay for a guy while they are in rebuild mode, only to watch dollars go out of the window, and the rebuild stunted.

Philly is not going to like that other teams like the Reds and Nationals will have pitching to sell off, and at much cheaper prices one would figure.

 

[DewsSox79]

Well if this is what Lester might command, what in the hell is Scherzer going to get if Lester signs first?

Philly might be liking this, because teams that fail to sign Lester might jump at the chance to try and land Hamels in panic, which there are only a handful of teams that have the inventory to do so.

A team might have to consider giving up some of its commodities even though they might be cost controlled to land a pitcher like Hamels for 5/120 if the last year option is put in.

On the other hand, they can force Philly to sit on Hamels and make them have to pay for a guy while they are in rebuild mode, only to watch dollars go out of the window, and the rebuild stunted.

Philly is not going to like that other teams like the Reds and Nationals will have pitching to sell off, and at much cheaper prices one would figure.

scherzer money is going to be outrageous. he is sitting back loving every second of this.

there will be a team that gives up too much for cole. it will happen.


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[Boobaby1]

scherzer money is going to be outrageous. he is sitting back loving every second of this.

there will be a team that gives up too much for cole. it will happen.


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I believe that is when the Yankees come calling. That is why (for obvious reasons) I want to land Lester. I would love to see LAD and The Evil Empire hook horns for Scherzer's services.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Ken Rosenthal and other are reporting that Lester will NOT make a decision before the winter meetings which could really hold up some trades. I'm guessing if he waits until Monday or Tuesday the floodgates will open on trading season in spectacular fashion. Could be something to see. What do you bet the Cubs have a plan B if Lester goes with LA or some other "mystery" team?

 

[TL1961]

Ken Rosenthal and other are reporting that Lester will NOT make a decision before the winter meetings which could really hold up some trades. I'm guessing if he waits until Monday or Tuesday the floodgates will open on trading season in spectacular fashion. Could be something to see. What do you bet the Cubs have a plan B if Lester goes with LA or some other "mystery" team?

I am very confident the Cubs have a plan B. I don't know whether it is a trade or FA. But they aren't just sitting around expecting to get Lester and won't be caught off guard if they don't get him.

But Plan B may pale in comparison to Plan A. Shields is underwhelming, especially if he costs a lot of $. Scherzer MAY be their Plan B, but unlikely. Scherzer will cost more than Lester, and the Cubs have ties with Lester. And, frankly, I think Lester is a better guy to hitch your postseason wagon to. But clearly Boras, Scherzer, and enough teams feel otherwise that he'll get big $.

I like guys like Liriano as a second acquisition. If that becomes their "big" signing, it is not as good, obviously.

But keep one thing in mind: The Cubs know they CAN compete if they get Lester, but they are not anywhere close to a situation where they NEED to get their ace this offseason.

 

[Parade_Rain]

That means they (Lester/agent) aren't getting the dollars they want to see at the moment, IMHO.

 

[brett05]

I think Plan B is to hold tight with internal options since none of the guys available outside of Lester, Shields, Scherzer are TOR potential so in house options at no money will be the route they take IMO

 

[brett05]

That means they (Lester/agent) aren't getting the dollars they want to see at the moment, IMHO.

I think they may have the dollars just not the team they want at the moment.

 

[SilenceS]

Reading reports that Lester wont make a decision before winter meetings. Jon Heyman is also reporting that dont sleep on the Giants winning him over. People still think the Cubs are the front runner. Some do think the Red Sox are favorite, but Buster Olney says they wont get a hometown discount.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

I'm very confident that Jed and Theo have Plan B in place and will proceed accordingly. Any way we look at it, 2015 will be a developmental year. We have a new manager and several prospects entering their first full season (Soler, Baez, etc) -- not too mention prospects playing their first partial year (Bryant, etc).

Having Lester on board would help establish a winning culture in the club house and accelerate our competitiveness - but it would still be a developmental year for us. I want to see us now badly but I fear paying him $160-$170M will put us in the same position we just spent three years climbing out from -- saddled with bad contracts.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I am very confident the Cubs have a plan B. I don't know whether it is a trade or FA. But they aren't just sitting around expecting to get Lester and won't be caught off guard if they don't get him.

But Plan B may pale in comparison to Plan A. Shields is underwhelming, especially if he costs a lot of $. Scherzer MAY be their Plan B, but unlikely. Scherzer will cost more than Lester, and the Cubs have ties with Lester. And, frankly, I think Lester is a better guy to hitch your postseason wagon to. But clearly Boras, Scherzer, and enough teams feel otherwise that he'll get big $.

I like guys like Liriano as a second acquisition. If that becomes their "big" signing, it is not as good, obviously.

But keep one thing in mind: The Cubs know they CAN compete if they get Lester, but they are not anywhere close to a situation where they NEED to get their ace this offseason.

Shield's value was hurt buy his postseason, he might not get a 4th year like he was expecting. He might be had at 3 years and under $60 million. I'd take a long hard look at those numbers. They'll still need a lefty TOR guy of course but that maybe could wait. the other thing is either Shields or Liriano worth the draft pick?

 

[Zvbxrpl]

I think Plan B is to hold tight with internal options since none of the guys available outside of Lester, Shields, Scherzer are TOR potential so in house options at no money will be the route they take IMO

What internal options?

I've butted heads about this in some other thread with a couple, mainly silence. CJ Edwards right now doesn't have the endurance to be a starter. Dynamite future closer? Sure. Strong long relief of 2-3 innings? Sure. Can go 8 innings, throwing 120 pitches and pitching 30+ games a season? Cant see it. Neither could scouts. He's gotta jump some very large hurdles, and until then, Edwards can't be counted on to be a starter.

I like Pierce Johnson. When first drafted, people were saying the cubs 'took the guy the cards were targeting.' Cards picked 7-8 spots after the cubs took him 43rd. Somewhere in the comp round. He doesn't project to be TOR. #3 at best in rotation.

The reason I'm not keen on this is because the cubs have no internal options that are TOR material. They've ignored it. The two guys with the best potential to me (McNeil and Cease) aren't going to be up for a long time. Like 3-4 years.

Everything is getting expensive, I think Boo mentioned that the Phillies are loving this, because now asking for the top 2-3 prospects for Hamels isn't so insane sounding.

Cub fans want the best players but don't want to pay for it.

If the plan is to make a statement this year, if the plan is to compete this year...

you sign Lester. Yes. Overpay for him.

If the plan is to be a news headline maybe, Theo has done a great job. Still doesn't help a team in need of TOR quality pitchers. Liriano would be nice, but he's not Lester.

The only in house product right now that has a chance is Hendricks. But even then, teams will adjust to him. I think he can be as good as his brief stint here, but now teams will have figured him out. Even then, nowhere close to an ace. Like Arrieta, a #3 with potential to be a #2 if he overachieves.

I hope he does. Pitching wins.

 

[brett05]

You are right the Cubs currently have no TOR option internally. That is why I said if they miss out on Lester or Max or Shields to jsut stick with your current internal candidates for pitchers instead of signing guys like a Liriano or a Masterson who won't be TOR guys and cost a lot more than the internal options already.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

What internal options?

I've butted heads about this in some other thread with a couple, mainly silence. CJ Edwards right now doesn't have the endurance to be a starter. Dynamite future closer? Sure. Strong long relief of 2-3 innings? Sure. Can go 8 innings, throwing 120 pitches and pitching 30+ games a season? Cant see it. Neither could scouts. He's gotta jump some very large hurdles, and until then, Edwards can't be counted on to be a starter.

I like Pierce Johnson. When first drafted, people were saying the cubs 'took the guy the cards were targeting.' Cards picked 7-8 spots after the cubs took him 43rd. Somewhere in the comp round. He doesn't project to be TOR. #3 at best in rotation.

The reason I'm not keen on this is because the cubs have no internal options that are TOR material. They've ignored it. The two guys with the best potential to me (McNeil and Cease) aren't going to be up for a long time. Like 3-4 years.

Everything is getting expensive, I think Boo mentioned that the Phillies are loving this, because now asking for the top 2-3 prospects for Hamels isn't so insane sounding.

Cub fans want the best players but don't want to pay for it.

If the plan is to make a statement this year, if the plan is to compete this year...

you sign Lester. Yes. Overpay for him.

If the plan is to be a news headline maybe, Theo has done a great job. Still doesn't help a team in need of TOR quality pitchers. Liriano would be nice, but he's not Lester.

The only in house product right now that has a chance is Hendricks. But even then, teams will adjust to him. I think he can be as good as his brief stint here, but now teams will have figured him out. Even then, nowhere close to an ace. Like Arrieta, a #3 with potential to be a #2 if he overachieves.

I hope he does. Pitching wins.

Pitching does win I agree but I also don't think everything goes in the crapper if they don't get a TOR guy this offseason. They ignored TOR pitching early in the draft on purpose. It was a strategy to stockpile the market inequity of right handed power bats. Those bats will eventually land them some pitching but because they're own internal scouting isn't done yet that time hasn't come, at least in part because they've found themselves a year ahead of schedule. Maybe if they don't land Lester they will part with someone in a trade, we don't know that yet. The thing is doesn't there have to be a limit on how much they're willing to pay? If the Giants or Dodgers offer 6/$160 do you really try to compete with that? I don't know that this one single guy is that valuable ot overpay that much. 6/$150 is an overpay and I think they're completely willing to make that move but it might not be enough. They offered Russell Martin a significant overpay and Toronto gave him really silly money. You have to parameters to your business. You can go out on a limb but go too far and the limb breaks.

My feeling is that right now and over the next year the Cubs need a #1 starter and a #3 starter to allow Arrieta to learn to be a #2 and test his durability and to see what you have in Hendricks at the #4 slot. I'm not sold on him but 4 is a good place to learn more. You have more 5's than you can shake a stick at and that surplus could be valuable too. What if they pulled off a trade for a solid #3 but went into the season thinking about picking up that #1 at the deadline? Would that be awful? There will be guys to be had. I don't think the whole bunch of guys that will be available next year will go in trade this offseason and even if they do some won't sign extensions. You're talking a group that includes Price, Fister, Zimmermann, most likely Grienke and Samardzija (obviously not an option for Chicago) and I think missing a couple. Lester is not the last best hope. I want him. I think they'll sign him because I think the Dodgers are playing games with the Giants and I don't think the Giants are going to bite. Just an opinion I suppose but I still think 6/$150-!58 probably gets it done and I'm guessing the Cubs think so too and will go there. If they don't I'm not looking for tall buildings to jump off of.

Oh and Edwards might be better than you think. What you say you've heard and read from scouts is accurate but there are another batch of scouts who believe he is a guy with TOR potential. I think you'll see him in some spot starts late this next season so we'll all start to find out.

 

[Boobaby1]

I'm very confident that Jed and Theo have Plan B in place and will proceed accordingly. Any way we look at it, 2015 will be a developmental year. We have a new manager and several prospects entering their first full season (Soler, Baez, etc) -- not too mention prospects playing their first partial year (Bryant, etc).

Having Lester on board would help establish a winning culture in the club house and accelerate our competitiveness - but it would still be a developmental year for us. I want to see us now badly but I fear paying him $160-$170M will put us in the same position we just spent three years climbing out from -- saddled with bad contracts.

You can't worry about being saddled with bad contracts, and technically, the Cubs were not as saddled as you think IMO. They were at the very end of those contracts, and the Cubs frankly could have kept them on the team and still not done any worse, or better. Referencing Corey Black for Soriano which to this point is nill, the others were Zambrano (1yr) for Chris Volstad, and Marlon Byrd (1yr) for Michael Bowden who offsets the Soriano deal in a big way. Dempster (1 yr) I can't remember, and Ramirez was already heading out.

Payroll has dropped significantly because they did not replace those guys with any equal dollars, but took the route of trying to replace on the cheap with somewhat equal talent. i.e., they still were able to tank.

And to take away any of your fear, have trust that the FO has instilled the waves of talent. That means that you should rarely if ever be saddled with bad contracts because you always have a farm system offsetting the larger contracts and making them more palateable.

The process they have been going through, was recovering from the "win now" campaign in 07' and 08'. It may be a long time before that happens again, and if it does, it probably won't be this front office that is doing it.

Sorry to get off topic, but they could easily pay 6/180 for Lester if they wanted to, and not hurt a bit in the wallet. Attendance would start to rise, merchandising would start to flip because of the buzz around the nation, and by the time Lester figures to not be that guy anymore, the TV contract would be well in place and they would be able to afford 3 more Lester's in the rotation if they wanted to.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Oh and Edwards might be better than you think. What you say you've heard and read from scouts is accurate but there are another batch of scouts who believe he is a guy with TOR potential. I think you'll see him in some spot starts late this next season so we'll all start to find out.

I/scouts don't question his stuff. His stuff screams TOR.

I/scouts question his arm after 50-60 pitches. There is a clear drop in production and he suffered a shoulder injury as a result.

Future closer I can see, unless he puts on some weight and proves he can throw 100 pitches seamlessly an outing for a couple years.

I don't care for anomalies or outliers. I care about overall consistency in health. He doesn't have it. He didn't have it. He needs to have it for a few years to convince me.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

You can't worry about being saddled with bad contracts, and technically, the Cubs were not as saddled as you think IMO. They were at the very end of those contracts, and the Cubs frankly could have kept them on the team and still not done any worse, or better. Referencing Corey Black for Soriano which to this point is nill, the others were Zambrano (1yr) for Chris Volstad, and Marlon Byrd (1yr) for Michael Bowden who offsets the Soriano deal in a big way. Dempster (1 yr) I can't remember, and Ramirez was already heading out.

Payroll has dropped significantly because they did not replace those guys with any equal dollars, but took the route of trying to replace on the cheap with somewhat equal talent. i.e., they still were able to tank.

And to take away any of your fear, have trust that the FO has instilled the waves of talent. That means that you should rarely if ever be saddled with bad contracts because you always have a farm system offsetting the larger contracts and making them more palateable.

The process they have been going through, was recovering from the "win now" campaign in 07' and 08'. It may be a long time before that happens again, and if it does, it probably won't be this front office that is doing it.

Sorry to get off topic, but they could easily pay 6/180 for Lester if they wanted to, and not hurt a bit in the wallet. Attendance would start to rise, merchandising would start to flip because of the buzz around the nation, and by the time Lester figures to not be that guy anymore, the TV contract would be well in place and they would be able to afford 3 more Lester's in the rotation if they wanted to.

Love your optimism and agree on a few of your points -- but I would never pay Lester $180M over 6 years. To me that would be crazy. Regardless I hope we still snag him in the $140M range, as unlikely as that seems.

 

[Boobaby1]

Don't get me wrong here. I didn't say I would go 6/180, just that they could. It would not be the greatest business sense in the world.

That said. I would kick the tires on adding a 7th year in the form of optoions stating that Lester will be performing above par levels in years 5 and 6 though. That would put the figure closer to 7/160 which I would think Lester would accept. This way, the Cubs are still only on the hook for 6 years, and if he is still pitching decently, all is not a total waste as he might then be a #4 or #5 in the rotation, and the Cubs will already have their WS under their belt.

How's that for optimism?