The Jon Lester Discussion Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.

DewsSox79

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Apr 24, 2010
Posts:
29,059
Liked Posts:
7,249
if im going all in on a starter im going all in on scherzer. cubs should just go the scherzer route imo


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk
 

Boobaby1

New member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
2,236
Liked Posts:
1,180
if im going all in on a starter im going all in on scherzer. cubs should just go the scherzer route imo


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

Would hate to think what he will get, and then you can throw the Yankees into that discussion in all likelihood.

Sorry, but no Boras, less money, and no draft pick compensation screams Lester or nothing for this FO.
 

SilenceS

Moderator
Staff member
Donator
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
21,852
Liked Posts:
9,047
Reading from Jon Heyman that a 7 year would seal the deal for a team. An executive said he would bank on Lester getting that 7th year. Also, reading from chicagocubsonline which still may be coming from Heyman that Theo wants to make a splash and would go after Shields or Scherzer hard if Lester falls through.
 

Boobaby1

New member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
2,236
Liked Posts:
1,180
Reading from Jon Heyman that a 7 year would seal the deal for a team. An executive said he would bank on Lester getting that 7th year. Also, reading from chicagocubsonline which still may be coming from Heyman that Theo wants to make a splash and would go after Shields or Scherzer hard if Lester falls through.

Here's the thing though. Whoever fails to sign Lester will also be in the Scherzer bidding too, and now, you will probably be looking at adding BOTH big boys bidding against the Cubs.

The Cubs have a greater chance at signing and having to overpay a little to get Shields than they do at even sniffing a successful bid at landing Scherzer.

Basically, if you can't land Lester, you ain't landing Scherzer.
 

TC in Mississippi

CCS Staff
Joined:
Oct 22, 2014
Posts:
5,305
Liked Posts:
1,816
Here's the thing though. Whoever fails to sign Lester will also be in the Scherzer bidding too, and now, you will probably be looking at adding BOTH big boys bidding against the Cubs.

The Cubs have a greater chance at signing and having to overpay a little to get Shields than they do at even sniffing a successful bid at landing Scherzer.

Basically, if you can't land Lester, you ain't landing Scherzer.

Which is why I wouldn't try. First of all RH pitchers tend to drop off more precipitously than LH pitchers, in other words when it happens it's a steep drop and Scherzer has that feel to him. I'm not sure why but that's my hunch. Now that doesn't mean that he doesn't give you 4 good years and a WS appearance or 2 and for some teams I think that's worth it. I'm not sure it is for the Cubs. If I'm Chicago after missing out on Lester (which I sense won't happen but of course it could) I go hard after Shields and Liriano. That's why I'm a little puzzled by the apparently imminent signing of Jason Hammel. He makes sense with a Lester signing, not so much with a RH signing, unless they think Wood will bounce back or Wada's age won't catch up with him.
 

Boobaby1

New member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
2,236
Liked Posts:
1,180
Which is why I wouldn't try. First of all RH pitchers tend to drop off more precipitously than LH pitchers, in other words when it happens it's a steep drop and Scherzer has that feel to him. I'm not sure why but that's my hunch. Now that doesn't mean that he doesn't give you 4 good years and a WS appearance or 2 and for some teams I think that's worth it. I'm not sure it is for the Cubs. If I'm Chicago after missing out on Lester (which I sense won't happen but of course it could) I go hard after Shields and Liriano. That's why I'm a little puzzled by the apparently imminent signing of Jason Hammel. He makes sense with a Lester signing, not so much with a RH signing, unless they think Wood will bounce back or Wada's age won't catch up with him.

Yes, but if you sign Hammel and Shields lets say, the Cubs have accomplished in essence their goal of getting a top tier, and 2nd tier pitcher in one off-season which is faster than they had probably hoped to.

And after that, if the Cubs can go hard after another TOR via the trade route next year, this Cubs team would be rather well stocked even if it took a little hit with a position player, or some of the farm.

First things first though, the Cubs need to get that all important TOR pitcher.
 

SilenceS

Moderator
Staff member
Donator
Joined:
Apr 16, 2013
Posts:
21,852
Liked Posts:
9,047
I wouldn't call Hammel Tier #2.

He was seeking around a 3 year deal. He can eat innings and seem to connect to Bosio and his gameplan. He will probably slot in a our 3 this year, but hopefully, he will slot in as a 4th or 5th in the coming years.
 

brett05

867-5309
Joined:
Apr 28, 2009
Posts:
27,226
Liked Posts:
4,579
Location:
Hell
He was seeking around a 3 year deal. He can eat innings and seem to connect to Bosio and his gameplan. He will probably slot in a our 3 this year, but hopefully, he will slot in as a 4th or 5th in the coming years.

I agree. I just don;t see Hammel in the next tier after Max, Jon, and James is all I was pointing out.
 

Boobaby1

New member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
2,236
Liked Posts:
1,180
I agree. I just don;t see Hammel in the next tier after Max, Jon, and James is all I was pointing out.

Maybe not around the league, but he is to the Cubs, don't ya think?

He had a hiccup in 2013, but 2012 and 2014 were very solid numbers and if he hovers in the 3.5-3.75 ERA for the Cubs, I would say that he is 2nd tier.

But, 2nd tier to some may be different. If I look at Homer Bailey stats, they are pretty similar.

Who knows, maybe he has found a little of his stride, and hopefully, a comfort zone now that he is back with the Cubs.

I hope this is an oddity seeing that it is a fluke to re-sign with the team that previously dealt you at the deadline. Lets at least hope it holds true for Lester not going back to Boston.
 

DJMoore_is_fat

New member
Joined:
Aug 26, 2012
Posts:
4,143
Liked Posts:
1,792
I agree that if we fail to land Lester, we shouldn't even attempt to land Scherzer. Bidding for him will start at $175M and he's not worth that type of money. The odds of him not living up anywhere close to their deal is extremely high. In fact, I'd say the odds of him performing any near the value of the deal would be maybe 5-10%.

Shields looked horrible in the post season but he's been an excellent regular season pitcher for a long time. Plus he has good repoire with Maddon. I wonder if he'd take 4-years at $80M? I'd hate to pay him $100M over 5 years but I'm sure that is where the bidding will go. I'm just not sure it would be wise to pay Shields $20M per year for 5 years.

Maybe we should focus on two middle tier SP's -- Hammels being one. It's possible we can acquire a better front line SP via trade during the season.
 

Boobaby1

New member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
2,236
Liked Posts:
1,180
I agree that if we fail to land Lester, we shouldn't even attempt to land Scherzer. Bidding for him will start at $175M and he's not worth that type of money. The odds of him not living up anywhere close to their deal is extremely high. In fact, I'd say the odds of him performing any near the value of the deal would be maybe 5-10%.

Shields looked horrible in the post season but he's been an excellent regular season pitcher for a long time. Plus he has good repoire with Maddon. I wonder if he'd take 4-years at $80M? I'd hate to pay him $100M over 5 years but I'm sure that is where the bidding will go. I'm just not sure it would be wise to pay Shields $20M per year for 5 years.

Maybe we should focus on two middle tier SP's -- Hammels being one. It's possible we can acquire a better front line SP via trade during the season.

I would be surprised if he goes to 5 years at his age although I am sure he would take it. I think whoever signs him will lean heavier on the AAV then years. Something in the 4/90 would probably land Shields. He is going to be 33 when pitchers and catchers report in a couple of months.
 

FrankieLyrical

South Side Chicagoan
Joined:
Nov 5, 2012
Posts:
2,483
Liked Posts:
802
Location:
Chicago, IL.
Lester is making his decision tomorrow. Hopefully he's pitching on the North Side next year!
 

DewsSox79

CCS Donator
Donator
Joined:
Apr 24, 2010
Posts:
29,059
Liked Posts:
7,249
I agree that if we fail to land Lester, we shouldn't even attempt to land Scherzer. Bidding for him will start at $175M and he's not worth that type of money. The odds of him not living up anywhere close to their deal is extremely high. In fact, I'd say the odds of him performing any near the value of the deal would be maybe 5-10%.

Shields looked horrible in the post season but he's been an excellent regular season pitcher for a long time. Plus he has good repoire with Maddon. I wonder if he'd take 4-years at $80M? I'd hate to pay him $100M over 5 years but I'm sure that is where the bidding will go. I'm just not sure it would be wise to pay Shields $20M per year for 5 years.

Maybe we should focus on two middle tier SP's -- Hammels being one. It's possible we can acquire a better front line SP via trade during the season.

on your scherzer point the same can be said about lester


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk
 

DJMoore_is_fat

New member
Joined:
Aug 26, 2012
Posts:
4,143
Liked Posts:
1,792
on your scherzer point the same can be said about lester


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk


Absolutely true. Only difference would be probably $50M or so. As Theo says, signing front line SP's is very risky and usually doesn't work out.
 

TL1961

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 24, 2013
Posts:
35,136
Liked Posts:
19,212
Reading from Jon Heyman that a 7 year would seal the deal for a team. An executive said he would bank on Lester getting that 7th year. Also, reading from chicagocubsonline which still may be coming from Heyman that Theo wants to make a splash and would go after Shields or Scherzer hard if Lester falls through.

Shields would be OK if the price is MUCH lower than Lester, but gives you no true ace.

Scherzer will cost so much more than Lester that I can't understand how a team could lose Lester and pursue Scherzer, but same was aid for Red Sox.

If it comes don to year 7 for Lester, give it to him. You'll still spend less than if you sign Scherzer, who also will want 7.
 

TL1961

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 24, 2013
Posts:
35,136
Liked Posts:
19,212
I would be surprised if he goes to 5 years at his age although I am sure he would take it. I think whoever signs him will lean heavier on the AAV then years. Something in the 4/90 would probably land Shields. He is going to be 33 when pitchers and catchers report in a couple of months.

Shields is two years older than Lester. A 5th year for Shields will be at the same age as a 7th year for Lester. If you're going to add a pitcher's Age 37 year to a contract, add the 7th to Lester's.
 

Boobaby1

New member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
2,236
Liked Posts:
1,180
Shields is two years older than Lester. A 5th year for Shields will be at the same age as a 7th year for Lester. If you're going to add a pitcher's Age 37 year to a contract, add the 7th to Lester's.

Not saying they won't add it. Just that he may be a back up plan or not, and more to it that they will not go after Scherzer.

They will eventually have to decide if something as far as a rotation for instance goes like Shields, Arrieta, Latos, Hammel, and Edwards or something like that are good enough to compete for now until they land that true ACE?

The easy pick would be Lester, Arrieta, Hammel and whomever else they can add. I think the FO has a better idea of what they can and cannot spend in the very near future.
 

TL1961

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 24, 2013
Posts:
35,136
Liked Posts:
19,212
Ken Rosenthal reporting that Lester is down to two teams, and Cubs are on of them

As an Illini fan, I am prepared to finish second.

If he picks up a Kansas hat, I will punch his agent in the face.
 

chibears55

Well-known member
Joined:
Apr 18, 2013
Posts:
13,554
Liked Posts:
1,915
Ken Rosenthal reporting that Lester is down to two teams, and Cubs are on of them

As an Illini fan, I am prepared to finish second.

If he picks up a Kansas hat, I will punch his agent in the face.

Giants are the other...

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS · 44m44 minutes ago
concur that giants & cubs seem like favorites, as @Ken_Rosenthal said. tho least red sox havent been informed theyre out.

money and years are somewhat equal, cant see how he don't choose the giants over the cubs unless he doesn't like the west coast
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top