The Post Khalil Mack Financial and Draft Landscape

[WindyCity]

Obviously, the expectations and future team building plans have changed with a monumental deal and this is a look at how it might change for the Bears after Khalil Mack.

2018 Cap Space: 11.1 million

The NFLPA has the Bears at 11.1 million in cap space. That is more than enough entering the season.
What I would do,

Eddie Goldman

4 years 40 million/24 guaranteed + 1 year 2 million= 5 years 42 million/24 guaranteed

Year 1: 5 guaranteed base/2 million signing bonus [7]
Year 2: 4 guaranteed base/2 million signing bonus [6]
Year 3: 3 million base/2 million signing bonus/5 roster bonus [9]
Year 4: 7 million base/2 million signing bonus [9]
Year 5: 8 million base/2 million signing bonus [10]

The Bears should use the remaining cap space they have to take care of Goldman for a couple of reasons,
1. He is more valuable than Adrian Amos to the defense.
2. He is going to command more money than Amos with the safety market

Draft Picks

The Bears need to do what they can to stockpile mid-late round picks with trades. The Deinodre Hall move was a great example of adding some quantity to a low-quality draft pool.

Guys I would dangle in case of injuries around the league.

-Kevin White
-Aaron Lynch or Sam Acho
-Dion Sims, depending on Shaheen health.

 

[WindyCity]

2019 Cap Space: 23 Millions

Cuts

Dion Sims 6 million
Sam Acho 2.5 million
Bradley Sowell 1.5 million

33 million
*Danny Trevathan 6.4 million, would depend on health and Kwiatowski’s development.

-The Bears will pretty easily get to 33 million in cap space entering into the 2019 offseason, which is a healthy position to be in.

-It is not spend like crazy on everyone, but it is healthy enough that they should not get bullied by other teams.

-The Bears also will only need about 2.5 million for their draft pool, which is a weird positive from the Khalil Mack trade.

Free Agents

Keep

Cody Whitehair 5 years 52 million/22 guaranteed-6 years 53 million/22 guaranteed [5] *If more extensive cuts are made.

Eddie Goldman [who I would extend in 2018] cap hit [6 million].
Adrian Amos 3 years 19.5 million/10 guaranteed [Ricardo Allen] [6.5]
Daniel Brown 2 years 2.1 million [Marquise Gray] [1.05]
RRH ERFA 750k Offer: 5 years 25 million/8 guaranteed [Stacy McGee]
Rashard Coward ERFA 750k
Isiah Irving ERFA 750k

Gone

Bobbie Massie
Aaron Lynch
Kevin White

-The reality of the Mack deal is that the Bears are not going to be active in free agency next offseason, which I never thought was the plan after the aggressive moves the made before Khalil Mack was traded for.

-The Bears should very easily be able to keep their key players. There is more than enough money for Amos and Goldman and other key guys like RRH are ERFA and will make nothing.

-The Bears are probably going to be backup shopping in free agency, but with only 1 starting player that needs to be replaced [Massie] that isn’t bad and Massie looks like he has an in house replacement option in Coward.

 

[WindyCity]

2019 Draft

The loss of picks is going to sting, but there are a couple of factors that make it a little less painful for me.

1. The Bears were going to have to draft an OLB in the 1st round anyway.
2. The Bears do not have needs at premium positions like OLB, QB, WR, CB, or LT. Having needs at those areas would only expose further the missing picks. The Vikings were without a 1st round pick 2 years ago, but needed a RB and C and were able to add starting caliber players in the 2nd and 3rd round.

What has to happen?

1. The Bears need to do everything in their power to add day 3 picks and conditional picks and hope that while they may not be making high picks that they are making at least 7-8 picks and get some quantity.
2. They need to use these picks to get depth at a few key spots so that they can bypass free agency and save some money.
3. They need to sit back and eat the lack of top picks this year. No more dealing future picks.

Limited Resources Mock Draft

I know this will be horridly outdated and useless in terms of actual predictions, but I think it acts as a decent visual for seeing what the Bears might be able to do in a limited resource draft.

The explanations are more about the positions and the positions of the picks than the actual players.

3. OT Max Scharping [Northern Illinois] 6’6” 315lbs.

The Bears are going to need a RT and moving on from Massie makes a ton of sense, especially with the emergence of Coward, but the Bears lack quality depth and competition at RT and as a swing OT. The Bears need to add a talented OT that can be developed by Hiestand and provide depth in their first season. I am looking for a player that has played both RT and LT and who has a number of starts under his belt as I am relying on him in 2019 to provide some competition and an option. Scharping has played LT and RT and is a team captain and has OT physical tools.

4. CB Jamal Peters [Mississippi St] 6’2” 210lbs.

The Bears have the most stability at CB that they have had in years, but they need to develop players that can start outside. Tolliver has an interesting camp and was well worth keeping around, but after that the Bears do not have a ton of developmental talent. This is important because if there is a cao squeeze at some point I think Prince could be gone as he really signed a 2 year deal. The Bears clearly like to have some size and physicality at the CB spot. By adding a big CB like Peters to Tolliver the Bears have 2 outside CBs for the future that they are letting Donatel work with.

5. S Mike Edwards [Kentucky] 5’11” 205lbs.

The Bears need more depth at safety and they need someone with a skill set similar to Eddie Jackson that can possibly step in at FS. They need someone with the range and ball skills that Deon Bush lacks as a backup. Bush has looked strong in the preseason, but he has looked good in the Amos role, and we know that they are 2 different positions based on Amos’ struggles at one and success at the other.

7. TE Matt Sokol [Michigan St] 6’6” 255lbs.

The Bears are paying a 3rd TE almost exclusively blocking TE 6 million this season, which is a massive waste of resources. Sims’ value increases with the Shaheen injury, but based on the cap there is almost 0 chance he is on the team next year when the Bears can save 6 million by cutting him. Needing a blocking TE is not a bad spot to be, especially when you have your top 2 guys in place. The Bears can invest a day 3 pick in a big TE that can be used in blocking packages and short yardage. Sokol is a big bodied TE that comes from a run first team and can fill the role.

7. RB Darrin Hall [Pitt] 5’11” 225lbs.

I think that the main casualty of the Khalil Mack trade could be Jordan Howard. I am not convinced that the Bears are going to re-sign him to a big money deal based on the position that he plays and the resources that they have allocated in other spots. The Bears should continue to find a cheap replacement for him. Hall probably never becomes Jordan Howard, but they need to add developmental players that can handle the punishment that Howard takes.

 

[WindyCity]

The Coles Notes

1. The Bears can afford to extend Goldman this season or next year.
2. The Bears can afford to keep Adrian Amos.
3. In 2019 the Bears are not going to have the money to be super active in free agency.
4. The 2019 draft isn't as bleak as we think when you look at the positions of need.

 

[Ares]

Wow, this is really happening....

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

 

[bearmick]

http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/...-Khalil-Mack?p=3095260&viewfull=1#post3095260

#calledit

 

[JesusHalasChrist]

I'm surprised it took you this long to get a mock draft together, Windy. Hopefully Dez doesn't follow suit.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Don't let em get ya down Windy. I enjoy your mocks.

 

[legendxofxlink]

jk, this is actually damn good

 

[Bearly]

2019 Draft

The loss of picks is going to sting, but there are a couple of factors that make it a little less painful for me.

1. The Bears were going to have to draft an OLB in the 1st round anyway.
2. The Bears do not have needs at premium positions like OLB, QB, WR, CB, or LT. Having needs at those areas would only expose further the missing picks. The Vikings were without a 1st round pick 2 years ago, but needed a RB and C and were able to add starting caliber players in the 2nd and 3rd round.

What has to happen?

1. The Bears need to do everything in their power to add day 3 picks and conditional picks and hope that while they may not be making high picks that they are making at least 7-8 picks and get some quantity.
2. They need to use these picks to get depth at a few key spots so that they can bypass free agency and save some money.
3. They need to sit back and eat the lack of top picks this year. No more dealing future picks.

Limited Resources Mock Draft

I know this will be horridly outdated and useless in terms of actual predictions, but I think it acts as a decent visual for seeing what the Bears might be able to do in a limited resource draft.

The explanations are more about the positions and the positions of the picks than the actual players.

3. OT Max Scharping [Northern Illinois] 6’6” 315lbs.

The Bears are going to need a RT and moving on from Massie makes a ton of sense, especially with the emergence of Coward, but the Bears lack quality depth and competition at RT and as a swing OT. The Bears need to add a talented OT that can be developed by Hiestand and provide depth in their first season. I am looking for a player that has played both RT and LT and who has a number of starts under his belt as I am relying on him in 2019 to provide some competition and an option. Scharping has played LT and RT and is a team captain and has OT physical tools.

4. CB Jamal Peters [Mississippi St] 6’2” 210lbs.

The Bears have the most stability at CB that they have had in years, but they need to develop players that can start outside. Tolliver has an interesting camp and was well worth keeping around, but after that the Bears do not have a ton of developmental talent. This is important because if there is a cao squeeze at some point I think Prince could be gone as he really signed a 2 year deal. The Bears clearly like to have some size and physicality at the CB spot. By adding a big CB like Peters to Tolliver the Bears have 2 outside CBs for the future that they are letting Donatel work with.

5. S Mike Edwards [Kentucky] 5’11” 205lbs.

The Bears need more depth at safety and they need someone with a skill set similar to Eddie Jackson that can possibly step in at FS. They need someone with the range and ball skills that Deon Bush lacks as a backup. Bush has looked strong in the preseason, but he has looked good in the Amos role, and we know that they are 2 different positions based on Amos’ struggles at one and success at the other.

7. TE Matt Sokol [Michigan St] 6’6” 255lbs.

The Bears are paying a 3rd TE almost exclusively blocking TE 6 million this season, which is a massive waste of resources. Sims’ value increases with the Shaheen injury, but based on the cap there is almost 0 chance he is on the team next year when the Bears can save 6 million by cutting him. Needing a blocking TE is not a bad spot to be, especially when you have your top 2 guys in place. The Bears can invest a day 3 pick in a big TE that can be used in blocking packages and short yardage. Sokol is a big bodied TE that comes from a run first team and can fill the role.

7. RB Darrin Hall [Pitt] 5’11” 225lbs.

I think that the main casualty of the Khalil Mack trade could be Jordan Howard. I am not convinced that the Bears are going to re-sign him to a big money deal based on the position that he plays and the resources that they have allocated in other spots. The Bears should continue to find a cheap replacement for him. Hall probably never becomes Jordan Howard, but they need to add developmental players that can handle the punishment that Howard takes.

One of the best mocks I've see done before a previous season even begins.

 

[WindyCity]

The draft is just to show what it can look like.

I think that people see the lack of picks and think that you cannot effectively add to the team. Not that it matters when you have Khalil Mack, but the Bears are in a decent spot with the draft, because of the positions of need.

 

[WindyCity]

2017 1 2 9 41 Dalvin Cook RB Florida State
2 3 6 70 Pat Elflein C Ohio State
3 4 2 109 Jaleel Johnson DT Iowa
4 4 14 120 Ben Gedeon LB Michigan
5 5 27 170 Rodney Adams WR South Florida
6 5 37 180 Danny Isidora G Miami (FL)
7 6 17 201 Bucky Hodges TE Virginia Tech
8 7 1 219 Stacy Coley WR Miami (FL)
9 7 2 220 Ifeadi Odenigbo DE Northwestern
10 7 14 232 Elijah Lee LB Kansas State
11 7 27 245 Jack Tocho DB North Carolina State

The Vikings were without a 2017 1st round pick and they were able to make it work for them because they did not have needs at premium round positions, which is similar to the Bears.

 

[WindyCity]

2017 1 2 12 44 Gerald Everett TE South Alabama
2 3 5 69 Cooper Kupp WR Eastern Washington
3 3 27 91 John Johnson DB Boston College
4 4 10 117 Josh Reynolds WR Texas A&M
5 4 19 125 Samson Ebukam LB Eastern Washington
6 6 5 189 Tanzel Smart DT Tulane
7 6 22 206 Sam Rogers RB Virginia Tech
8 7 16 234 Ejuan Price DE Pittsburgh

The Rams in 2017 were able to have a solid building draft without a 1st round pick. The top 6 picks are all playing roles in their 2nd season, but the Rams have done a really nice job of adding mid round and late round picks and just making a bunch of picks even though they don't have the top guys.

 

[Probie2429]

Does 33 million in space for 2019 assume a stagnant cap or a 10 million increase as has been standard for the last few years?

 

[jbunch14]

Thanks very much Windy! Especially for the financial breakdown. I was slightly concerned with the massive amount of money we are paying Mack but it looks like the FO has done a good job of keeping the cap in line.

 

[modo]

Obviously our financial situation is not as flexible as it was for the past few years but frankly most of our talent is in place. The majority of these people are going to be who we make a run with.

There is little to be done in free agency. It is about developing who we have and finding a couple gems in the draft over the next two years. Pace has proven he can find contributors in rounds 3 and up.

We are not in "cap hell" as the uneducated fan has said. (Typically from teams that did not get Mack.)

 

[Probie2429]

Sims and White are both gone replaced with rookies for depth or cheap vets. That's a hefty savings right there alone since right now it's 11 million in cap for non-contributors.

Cutting Kyle Long saves 5 million. I'd rather spend another 4-5 million and get a good guard in FA that isn't 30 and with such an injury history. You might be able to trade him for a day 2/3 pick if Long plays well this year to a team desperate for OL help.

Trevathan is another obvious cut. Again, he's good when he's on the field, but he can't stay on the field. With Smith at the other ILB spot, you can find another vet (think Freeman) for a lot cheaper I would think.

I wouldn't be against bringing Massie back but it would have to be for cheaper than his current deal. I think he balks at that and leaves.

 

[ZOMBIE@CTESPN]

I thought dez would have been the first with one of these threads lol

 

[Hawkeye OG]

Sims and White are both gone replaced with rookies for depth or cheap vets. That's a hefty savings right there alone since right now it's 11 million in cap for non-contributors.

Cutting Kyle Long saves 5 million. I'd rather spend another 4-5 million and get a good guard in FA that isn't 30 and with such an injury history. You might be able to trade him for a day 2/3 pick if Long plays well this year to a team desperate for OL help.

Trevathan is another obvious cut. Again, he's good when he's on the field, but he can't stay on the field. With Smith at the other ILB spot, you can find another vet (think Freeman) for a lot cheaper I would think.

I wouldn't be against bringing Massie back but it would have to be for cheaper than his current deal. I think he balks at that and leaves.

Your plan is to cut Kyle Long and Trevathon and bring back Massie? :thinking:

Not opposed to cutting Long, but we'll see how he plays this year. Don't think we should cut Trevathon. IIRC, his contract was pretty team friendly. We are a much better team with him on the field.