The Pre Opening Day NL Central Standings Prediction Thread

[CSF77]

Obviously that's a more reasoned approach to predictions, this is way too early, but you don't honestly think Bryant will start in the majors do you? With having to only stay in AAA for 9 games I think I'd be very angry if that were to happen and would seem to go against all the principles of this FO.

"It’s totally independent," said Hoyer. "Kris’ development is independent of any move we made today. We have a number of guys who will be working at third [this spring]." As for where the Cubs could turn as a stopgap, they plan to use Mike Olt, Tommy La Stella, and even Arismendy Alcantara or Javier Baez at third base in the spring. However, it's clear that Bryant isn't far off from the big leagues. We still expect him to arrive at some point during the first half. Jan 19 - 5:56 PM




IE after his control date and up toi his super 2 cut off as a eta.

3B I believe Olt will get the lion share as his D justifies it.

 

[Jntg4]

Why? Is Armageddon coming? That year is seen either by the Cubs or the trading partner, isn't it???

Not if he gets a big extension before hitting his last arb year. However, holding him back will still give him one more year at a cheap price.

 

[CSF77]

I don't believe it will make or break the team by holding him back. This team should become legit in 2016. 2015 there are too many question marks going on.

Not to mention if the season hinges on a prospect's eta there there is a real problem going on here.

 

[brett05]

Not if he gets a big extension before hitting his last arb year. However, holding him back will still give him one more year at a cheap price.

Maybe one more year at a cheaper price. For me, if Bryant smashes in year 1 or Year 2, he's signed long term. Whether that is Game #1 Game #10, Game #25 for the 2015 season as his start date in the bigs.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Probably true.

I and others still say it's the wrong move. That year will never, ever be seen.

Why would you never see that year? Even it's a year not playing for the Cubs it adds to value if say they decide to trade him in advance of his FA. It makes know sense to not take advantage of that opportunity. It's 9 games we're talking here, no one thinks they'd hold him down for his Super 2 date.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

"It’s totally independent," said Hoyer. "Kris’ development is independent of any move we made today. We have a number of guys who will be working at third [this spring]." As for where the Cubs could turn as a stopgap, they plan to use Mike Olt, Tommy La Stella, and even Arismendy Alcantara or Javier Baez at third base in the spring. However, it's clear that Bryant isn't far off from the big leagues. We still expect him to arrive at some point during the first half. Jan 19 - 5:56 PM




IE after his control date and up toi his super 2 cut off as a eta.

3B I believe Olt will get the lion share as his D justifies it.

I don't see them holding him down until the Super 2 date in June. That's probably a bridge too far and playing prediction games with arbitration really doesn't help much for a big market team. Super 2 dates are more important for the Twins and Royals of the world. As far the 9 games for a year of control I don't believe for one minute that Hoyer is being honest about that. of course it matters.

 

[brett05]

Why would you never see that year? Even it's a year not playing for the Cubs it adds to value if say they decide to trade him in advance of his FA. It makes know sense to not take advantage of that opportunity. It's 9 games we're talking here, no one thinks they'd hold him down for his Super 2 date.

I commented on this above your post.

http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/...ction-Thread?p=2022700&viewfull=1#post2022700

 

[brett05]

I don't see them holding him down until the Super 2 date in June. That's probably a bridge too far and playing prediction games with arbitration really doesn't help much for a big market team. Super 2 dates are more important for the Twins and Royals of the world. As far the 9 games for a year of control I don't believe for one minute that Hoyer is being honest about that. of course it matters.

It wouldn't be the first time this FO was deceptive. Not that they are the only ones. I guess I am missing what telling the truth would harm.

 

[CSF77]

I don't see them holding him down until the Super 2 date in June. That's probably a bridge too far and playing prediction games with arbitration really doesn't help much for a big market team. Super 2 dates are more important for the Twins and Royals of the world. As far the 9 games for a year of control I don't believe for one minute that Hoyer is being honest about that. of course it matters.

Depends on how he is producing in Iowa and how the 3B situation is going.

Lets say that Alcantara wins it out of S/T and puts up .300 BA with around .430 SLG. Baez proves good enough to hold 2B. Is there a glaring need to promote Bryant then? Not really.

I see it as need before want here.

If he needs some more AB's here and the teams O is generating runs then there is not a glaring need.

What the Cubs need is for the team to be good with out him first vs depending on him to make the team good.

 

[TL1961]

Maybe one more year at a cheaper price. For me, if Bryant smashes in year 1 or Year 2, he's signed long term. Whether that is Game #1 Game #10, Game #25 for the 2015 season as his start date in the bigs.

You keep saying the extra year never materializes, because he will be signed to an extension before that year rolls around. But the extension just costs the team big bucks one year earlier. Any way you slice it, the handful of games in April would cost the team big bucks if they start him on the opening day roster.

If they choose to do it, it may be a show of good faith, and may improve their chances down the road of convincing Bryant to sign an extension. I don't think having him on the opening day roster is necessarily a bad thing.

But it does cost them more money.

 

[TL1961]

It wouldn't be the first time this FO was deceptive. Not that they are the only ones. I guess I am missing what telling the truth would harm.

There's nothing deceptive about it. Everyone knows the rules.

The Cubs didn't make these rules. The players negotiate for these things, they can't cry about their double-edged sword. Certainly the team won't publicly state "we're keeping him down for two weeks to save money", but they're not exactly lying to the player and his agent.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I commented on this above your post.

http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/...ction-Thread?p=2022700&viewfull=1#post2022700

Got it. Missed it before, thanks. I just don't see them being able to lock him up. Based on what Boras says he's looking for in Washington for Bryce Harper and his comments regarding Mike Trout's deal as being a, and I quote, "molestation", I think it will be awfully difficult to sign Bryant to a team friendly long term deal. I'd love to be wrong about this. I see Bryant as playing for 5, maybe 5 1/2 years for the Cubs and being dealt because if he's the player people think he's going to be you're talking Stanton money and this front office isn't going play those games. Again I could be wrong.

As far as deception, I don't know why teams are ever honest with the media but I actually think this one is probably more honest than most, or have been up to know. They went into a plan to lose for three years and needed something for at least part of the fan base to hold on to so they told the truth when they could. Now that they're getting ready for a contention window I assume they will move more to the deception side. It'll encompass more than the contract stuff too. The players they love the most they'll start downplaying some and the players they want to move will be touted as future HoF players. I see it as part of the modern sports landscape.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

There's nothing deceptive about it. Everyone knows the rules.

The Cubs didn't make these rules. The players negotiate for these things, they can't cry about their double-edged sword. Certainly the team won't publicly state "we're keeping him down for two weeks to save money", but they're not exactly lying to the player and his agent.

No everybody knows the game, they just sugar coat it a little. I guarantee you Scott Boras and Kris Bryant know exactly how many games he's going to play in AAA.

 

[brett05]

You keep saying the extra year never materializes, because he will be signed to an extension before that year rolls around. But the extension just costs the team big bucks one year earlier. Any way you slice it, the handful of games in April would cost the team big bucks if they start him on the opening day roster.

If they choose to do it, it may be a show of good faith, and may improve their chances down the road of convincing Bryant to sign an extension. I don't think having him on the opening day roster is necessarily a bad thing.

But it does cost them more money.

It doesn't cost them more a year earlier. Like I said, starting game #1 or 9 he signs long term if he's raking in 2015 and certainly before the start of the 2017 season.

 

[brett05]

There's nothing deceptive about it. Everyone knows the rules.

The Cubs didn't make these rules. The players negotiate for these things, they can't cry about their double-edged sword. Certainly the team won't publicly state "we're keeping him down for two weeks to save money", but they're not exactly lying to the player and his agent.

Deceptive to the fan base.

 

[brett05]

Got it. Missed it before, thanks. I just don't see them being able to lock him up. Based on what Boras says he's looking for in Washington for Bryce Harper and his comments regarding Mike Trout's deal as being a, and I quote, "molestation", I think it will be awfully difficult to sign Bryant to a team friendly long term deal. I'd love to be wrong about this. I see Bryant as playing for 5, maybe 5 1/2 years for the Cubs and being dealt because if he's the player people think he's going to be you're talking Stanton money and this front office isn't going play those games. Again I could be wrong.

I'll lean on Boras' clients past history of the truly great players signing against Boras' advice. Happens a ton.

As far as deception, I don't know why teams are ever honest with the media

Because trust increases reports and reports increases interest which in turn increase sales. Big time "Butterfly Effect."

but I actually think this one is probably more honest than most, or have been up to know. They went into a plan to lose for three years and needed something for at least part of the fan base to hold on to so they told the truth when they could. Now that they're getting ready for a contention window I assume they will move more to the deception side. It'll encompass more than the contract stuff too. The players they love the most they'll start downplaying some and the players they want to move will be touted as future HoF players. I see it as part of the modern sports landscape.

I see them as one of the most dishonest and for the Cub Fan Trolls (and you know who you are), it has nothing to do with my hatred. They were not honest. They said every season matters. Every season counts and they tossed away 3 years. The Front Office couldn't do both (rebuild the minors while making efforts to be competitive at the majors). But that's alright. I think this could be something special for the team this season. Time will tell.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'll lean on Boras' clients past history of the truly great players signing against Boras' advice. Happens a ton.


Because trust increases reports and reports increases interest which in turn increase sales. Big time "Butterfly Effect."




I see them as one of the most dishonest and for the Cub Fan Trolls (and you know who you are), it has nothing to do with my hatred. They were not honest. They said every season matters. Every season counts and they tossed away 3 years. The Front Office couldn't do both (rebuild the minors while making efforts to be competitive at the majors). But that's alright. I think this could be something special for the team this season. Time will tell.

They had to say every season matters for the stupid. The stupid were going to hate them either way but they had to drown them out some, particularly early on. On the other hand, if you listened closely they spelled out everything they were going to do in detail. I wasn't posting here but I could find post I made in other places (if I had the time) that translated all of it. I thought they were exceptionally honest.

As far as Boras goes you and I will always disagree on that. Yes, there are long term contracts that his clients have signed. Many of those clients quickly dismissed Scott Boras after the signing. To me that means they were going against his advice which is their right, but also means they didn't buy into his wealth strategy. I'm never going to assume that a kid like Bryant is going to change his mind on that strategy. if I had a kid who a top prospect I would tell him to choose Boras 10 out of 10 times and not deviate from the plan. Of course people have minds of their own so sure it could happen. I'm looking at Stanton, I'm looking at what Boras said about Trout and I'm looking at the money Bryce Harper is likely to get from someone. That's how I predict Bryant. I would love to be wrong from a Cubs standpoint. I want the Cubs to win every single deal. They have sweetheart deals with Castro, Rizzo and Soler. One team rarely gets so lucky. I doubt it continues. I also doubt they open up Fort Knox for any player. I think that's why they're trying to develop multiple superstars so they don't have to capitulate for one.

 

[brett05]

They had to say every season matters for the stupid. The stupid were going to hate them either way but they had to drown them out some, particularly early on. On the other hand, if you listened closely they spelled out everything they were going to do in detail. I wasn't posting here but I could find post I made in other places (if I had the time) that translated all of it. I thought they were exceptionally honest.

As far as Boras goes you and I will always disagree on that. Yes, there are long term contracts that his clients have signed. Many of those clients quickly dismissed Scott Boras after the signing. To me that means they were going against his advice which is their right, but also means they didn't buy into his wealth strategy. I'm never going to assume that a kid like Bryant is going to change his mind on that strategy. if I had a kid who a top prospect I would tell him to choose Boras 10 out of 10 times and not deviate from the plan. Of course people have minds of their own so sure it could happen. I'm looking at Stanton, I'm looking at what Boras said about Trout and I'm looking at the money Bryce Harper is likely to get from someone. That's how I predict Bryant. I would love to be wrong from a Cubs standpoint. I want the Cubs to win every single deal. They have sweetheart deals with Castro, Rizzo and Soler. One team rarely gets so lucky. I doubt it continues. I also doubt they open up Fort Knox for any player. I think that's why they're trying to develop multiple superstars so they don't have to capitulate for one.

I can agree to disagree on the honesty of the office and Boras. No problem. :hi5:

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Hey what would life be without healthy disagreements?

 

[Parade_Rain]

I thought for a while they were untruthful and deceptive, but the reality is that even when they were tanking, every season was indeed "precious". They waited out bad contracts, flipped some nice FA signings for prospects and actually built the team to be competitive much more quickly than many thought they could/would. Looking back, I find them to have been incredibly honest. The one who threw it off was Ricketts with a pre-season comment, IIRC.