They're starting to post stuff like this and it's making me nervous

[Anno Catuli]

Yes.

One of the first things he said was that the goal every year was to win the WS. Each and every one.

But I guess all GM's say that and we should believe everything else there after.

He also said, it was going to be a long process. THAT is the goal behind restocking the farm system. To make us a consistent contender, each and every year, without having to go out and spend millions of dollars on a patchwork offense of aging players. Once the Cubs are close, they will go out into free agency and buy the big name stud, if and only if, he is the final piece to a championship contender.

 

[dabynsky]

The Cubs have slashed over 50 million in payroll since 2009 and Soriano's contract is stil hindering the teams progression to move forward.

Do I have this right ?

So just to be clear your only complaint is that the major league payroll has been slashed, and you would be fine with the resultsfrom the highest payroll teams in Cubs history if they were spending at 2009 levels.

 

[mountsalami]

He also said, it was going to be a long process

So which is it ?

After he did nothing tangilbe to improve the team over last winter I do remember him back peddling into what you decided to remember.

Fact is this is a one hundred loss team.

If we only lose ninety games this year with payroll slashed by 50 million, it will be a great success story.

To bad ML teams are measured in wins and not production per dollar.

 

[Anno Catuli]

SMH

Let me guess. You are one of those who want the Cubs to spend 200M every year, forfeit every draft pick between now and eternity, sign every big name free agent and hope they bring a win.

 

[mountsalami]

SMH

Let me guess. You are one of those who want the Cubs to spend 200M every year, forfeit every draft pick between now and eternity, sign every big name free agent and hope they bring a win.

According to Baseball Reference, the Cubs only had 3 position players who had a value of +2 or better WAR and one of them was Darwin Barney who is easily replaceable.

First off the stat sucks, but the fact remains this roster is full of major league quality replacement players.

There will ALWAYS be guys like David DeJesus, Nate Scheirholz, Ian Stewart, Darwin Barney, Dioner Navarro, Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Travis Wood, Luis Valbuena, Shawn Camp. That is about half the roster right off the top of my head.

Wake up. This is another 100 loss team and it is a 100 loss team because of lack of effort.

Your logic, and many others, is that the team is bad so why try?

Sorry, but apathy is terrible logic.

 

[mountsalami]

That would be great if the success of the franchise was measured in terms of profit margain or production for dollar spent or a numerous number of financial measurements.

Or if the fans were rewarded with monetary dividends on quarterly earnings instead of wins.

But last time I checked the only thing that matters is number of wins.

I have yet to see any asterisks next to any of the Yankees World Series trophies. They only count the number of championships.

Nobody is going to start the Dodgers at -20 wins going into next season because they are spending more money or adding 20 wins to the Marlins cause they aren't spending money.

Untill there is a hard salary cap in baseball, the number of wins per dollar spent doesn't matter at all and the number of wins period is all that matters.

 

[DewsSox79]

Where's the improvement???

Last offseason we were all told was far too soon to expect any improvements made to the major league team.

Now a year later we will probably be told the same thing.

It shouldn't be too hard to improve on a 100 loss season should it?

Looks like it is.

Let's look at the team shall we??

The offense/everyday 8 are virtually unchanged. No improvements here.

Starting Pitching?? Worse.

Garza and Shark are both back, so they are equal to last year.

Ryan Dempster is gone. Plug in Edwin Jackson. Nice to see the team actually spending some money, but he will not be an improvement over the 2.25 ERA Dempster provided in the 105 innings pitched before being traded. Downgrade.

Paul Maholm is gone. Probably the most pleasant surprise of last year. Plug in Scott Baker once he gets healthy. Maholm provided a nice 3.74 ERA for the Cubs in 120 innings pitched before being traded. That would be asking an awful lot out of Baker to duplicate coming off Tommy John surgery. Baker has only bettered that 3.74 twice in 5 seasons pitching over 100 innings per injury.

Chris Volstad is gone. Whew. Plug in Scott Feldman. Now here is probably an improvement actually. Volstad posted an ugly 6.31 ERA in 111 IP's last year as an improvement over Carlos Zambrano. Sadly however Feldman has posted an ERA above 5.00 in three of his four seasons logging at least 100 IP's. That would still actually be an improvement. So the Cubs have improved here as they will only lose 5-2 this year instead of the 6-2 they lost last year.

The bullpen is virtually identical and still not as good as it was at the end of the 2010 season.

Where is the improvement??

So far a full year into the 5 year Epstein plan and 2 offseasons of the 5 year plan, there are still no signs of improvement at the major league level and one or two more lottery tickets in the minors in Vizcaino and Soler.

Vizcaino was rated the #40 prospect by Baseball America before reconstructive elbow surgery. According to the research done of the Top 100 rankings from the years 1990-2003, that give Vizcaino about a 22.4% chance of providing at least a WAR of 1.5 at the major league level and a 4% chance of providing at least a WAR of 2.5.

MLB.com had him at #68, but I went ahead and used the better number so as not to be accussed of having an agenda.

Soler was ranked #69 last year by MLB.com. That gives him the same 22.4% chance of providing at least a WAR of 1.5 at the major league level and a 7% chance of providing at least a WAR of 2.5

Javier Baez was ranked #23 last year by MLB.com. That gives him a 37.7% chance of providing at least a WAR of 1.5 at the major league level and an 18.2% chance of providing at least a WAR of 2.5.

Albert Almora was ranked #45 last year by MLB.com. That gives him a 32.1% chance of providing at least a WAR of 1.5 at the major league level and a 16.7% of providing at least a WAR of 2.5.

No one is claiming these numbers are exactly the chances these players will have, but it is a very good starting point and probably in the ballpark of what REALISTIC expectations should be of this rewarding journey.

So that gives the Cubs top 4 prospects roughly a 4%, 7%, 18.2% and 16.7% chance of becoming quality major league players.

Less than 1 in 5 for any one of them individually.

Yet people are banking on ALL FOUR developing into the future core of the major league team.

One major league season has already been sacrificed playing these odds and a second season being thrown away is on the horizon.

:clap: finally someone gets it.

 

[Anno Catuli]

According to Baseball Reference, the Cubs only had 3 position players who had a value of +2 or better WAR and one of them was Darwin Barney who is easily replaceable.

First off the stat sucks, but the fact remains this roster is full of major league quality replacement players.

There will ALWAYS be guys like David DeJesus, Nate Scheirholz, Ian Stewart, Darwin Barney, Dioner Navarro, Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Travis Wood, Luis Valbuena, Shawn Camp. That is about half the roster right off the top of my head.

Wake up. This is another 100 loss team and it is a 100 loss team because of lack of effort.

Your logic, and many others, is that the team is bad so why try?

Sorry, but apathy is terrible logic.

The rebuilding processes all about the farm. Outside of Castro, Rizzo and MAYBE Castillo.... none of the other position players are not a part of the Cubs future. They are place holders until the kids are ready.

What is so hard for you to figure out about a rebuild?

 

[MRubio52]

According to Baseball Reference, the Cubs only had 3 position players who had a value of +2 or better WAR and one of them was Darwin Barney who is easily replaceable.

First off the stat sucks, but the fact remains this roster is full of major league quality replacement players.

There will ALWAYS be guys like David DeJesus, Nate Scheirholz, Ian Stewart, Darwin Barney, Dioner Navarro, Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Travis Wood, Luis Valbuena, Shawn Camp. That is about half the roster right off the top of my head.

Wake up. This is another 100 loss team and it is a 100 loss team because of lack of effort.

Your logic, and many others, is that the team is bad so why try?

Sorry, but apathy is terrible logic.

Ohhhhh man.

Firstly lets get this out of the way. I don't know shit about baseball, and neither do you. As much as I want to think I know a lot, I don't. Biggest lesson learned in 2012, I have no fucking clue how to run a major league team.

None.

Zero.

I would kill myself if I had to.

So the "I KNOWZ MORE THAN THEOOOOZZZZZZZ" tone that you're talking is all sorts of laughable.

There's moves that make me feel confident, there's moves that make me feel nervous, but I don't know enough about how baseball REALLY works to completely bash Theo.

He's smarter than I am. He knows more than I do, and this is a universal truth.

Chris Archer - has advanced levels in the minors and held his gains at every level. He's shown improvement from the scouting side as well, but hey if you want to scout with a spreadsheet, go right ahead.

Lastly, the lack of effort thing is a fucking falsehood. If you aren't paying attention to the infrastructure that has been built into an organization that was universally panned for being archaic that's not my problem.

They've gone from a laughingstock to an org with a really goddamn bright future.

You know what they can be, the Rays with money, and it's because of what they've built while you were bitching about the MLB product.

This is finally, FINALLY, a well run organization.

 

[MRubio52]

As for the prospects that "OMG THEY HAVE A SUPER HIGH CHANCE OF FLAMING OUT"

http://worldseriesdreaming.com/2012/12/20/roster-construction/

TLDR

Teams in the playoffs got 37% of their fWAR contributions from players they drafted.

22% came from Free Agency.

30% came via the trade, which requires having prospects.

Here's a picture

STILL TLDR: Drafting is essential in having success in baseball.

 

[JosMin]

A wall of nonsensical bullshit.

I don't understand your logic of being content with whatever result the Cubs would have, just as long as their payroll is north of $150 million. The Cubs' philosophy of handing out lengthy contracts with huge numbers was obviously proven to be the wrong direction. Rebuilding through the draft and acquiring enough assets to have a sustainable roster that is always in a position to compete regardless of what the payroll is.

How dense are you? Look at the Rays -- outside of Longoria and Price, what superstars do they have? They've been in the hunt for AL East titles for the last five years despite the fact that their payroll is routinely in the bottom third of the league. They do it because they're smart enough to stockpile young pitching and controllable assets so they are never forced to overpay guys who might not pan out. Shit, look at the haul they got for James Shields (an above-average starter with a cheap contract) and Wade Davis (a marginal starter/long reliever who's ridiculously cheap through 2017). Can you imagine what they're going to snag whenever David Price comes available?

 

[MRubio52]

One last thing:

The Cardinals are the best run org in the division. This is how their roster is constructed:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AnxTJm98j9jpdE9reW5LQ2lGODFHeUswMFhLU3Ridmc&gid=24

BUT ZOMG PROSPECTS MIGHT TEH FAILZ SIGN POOOHOLES

 

[Jntg4]

:clap: finally someone gets it.

You do realize you just said that a moron rambling incoherently gets something because he is like d3a and wants us to spend erroneously during the rebuild just to finish under .500 anyway, right?

Oh and BTW mountsalami, never ever use MLB.com prospect ranking, they are just awful. And nobody is banking on all 4 being great players, that's why the plan is to accumulate as much talent as possible to increase the chances of having some players that develop into stars...

 

[JosMin]

You do realize you just said that a moron rambling incoherently gets something because he is like d3a and wants us to spend erroneously during the rebuild just to finish under .500 anyway, right?

Oh and BTW mountsalami, never ever use MLB.com prospect ranking, they are just awful. And nobody is banking on all 4 being great players, that's why the plan is to accumulate as much talent as possible to increase the chances of having some players that develop into stars...

Quit trying to use logic, it's useless.

 

[mountsalami]

No one has said that spending big money is certain to give production, nice try.

Just that it is much more likely to provide prodcution than the lottery tickets.

Try to understand the point.

 

[Jntg4]

One last thing:

The Cardinals are the best run org in the division. This is how their roster is constructed:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AnxTJm98j9jpdE9reW5LQ2lGODFHeUswMFhLU3Ridmc&gid=24

BUT ZOMG PROSPECTS MIGHT TEH FAILZ SIGN POOOHOLES

To put that in perspective...
23 players on the 40-man are from the draft
2 were signed as international free agent
1 was purchased from a Mexican League team
1 was a Rule V draft minor league phase pick
That is 27 players out of 40 taken from the farm in some form or another

And they used their prospects to acquire 9 more of those, with only 4 coming through free agency.

 

[mountsalami]

A large portion of the lottery tickets never produce at the major league level at all.

That is the point you refuse to acknowledge because it is counter to your agenda.

 

[MRubio52]

God remember when this awful team went on to do nothing well and sucked forever.

 

[mountsalami]

Funny how you ignore the opportunity cost of passing on proven major league players hoping that the financially cheaper and factually longer shot prospects pan out.

What is the opportunity cost of a busted out prospect?

Money is no more a finite resource than draft picks are. The Cubs get draft picks every year and they also bring in enough revenue every year to easily field a $150M payroll.

The Yankees have fielded a payroll consistently near $200 million a season.

The Phillies have had a $170M + payroll the last couple seasons.

The Cubs have yet to field a payroll above $150 million.

Start comparing the Cubs to these teams when they spend close to what those teams spend.

By the way, the Cubs bring in more in revenue than the Phillies do. But ignore that because it doesn't fit your agenda.

Also the Yankees are still projected to field a $200M payroll and the Phillies about $150M.

The Cubs??

About $95M. Not even in the same universe. These teams are still spending a significant amount in payroll while the Cubs are ciipping coupons.

How has the $50M in dropped payroll since the 2010 season made the franchise better??

With a very strict amateur salary cap, it isn't like they can spend that on the precious prospect basket you insist on placing all your eggs.

 

[MRubio52]

A large portion of the lottery tickets never produce at the major league level at all.

That is the point you refuse to acknowledge because it is counter to your agenda.

So the Cards, Rays, Giants, Braves, Nats are all just lucky then?