What I didn't want to get into was responding to 500 posts about it. So my appologies for not being so forth coming in stating my views.
This was written before this offseason in late September. If I do not respond to everyone's comments you can blame me for cherry picking and having an agenda.
While I understand already that this is an exercise in futility as Failstein has already come out and pretty much said there will be no big FA's moves this year and next season will be another money grab all so the Cubs can once again rely on drafting high in the draft to build the team like small market teams do, here is what I would like to see done this offseason.
The team only has $38 million in guaranteed contracts right now for 2013, so no more of this crying poor crap.
Several of the arbitration eligible players should be released. This includes Randy Wells, Chris Volstad, Ian Stewart, Luis Valbuenna and Blake DeWitt. None of these players are worth more than the major league minimum.
Sign Garza to a 3-4 year extension and offer arbitration to Russell and Shark.
Let's say Garza get's $12M a year, Russell $750K and Shark $4M, that puts the Cubs at around $55M.
Probably another 7 or so players at league minimum puts the team around $63 million.
As of right now all the players you listed are on the major league roster. There is no extension for Garza yet and most of the talk does suggest that he will be traded, but I can at least understand the position of not offering an extension to a guy that hasn't thrown a pitch since last July. I have stated for a while that unless the return is too good to turn down, e.g. Mike Olt from Texas, that I would prefer to extend Garza, but given the market for what Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez got I think 12 million is a very conservative estimate for an extension would cost.
1. Offer Hamilton 6 years $150 million. The team HAS the money to do this and will not harm the development of the system in any way. Soler is probably at least two years away and Soriano has two years left on his deal. Jackson hasn't shown that he is ready but if he is, DeJesus should be benched or traded.
BJ Upton and Nick Swisher would be other options and would obviously be significantly cheaper and still would not block or hinder the development of the system in anyway possible.
I agree with questioning the value of a draft pick over these guys. I do understand the hesistancy to sign a guy like Hamilton with his unique risk factors and age to a 6 year deal. And while cheaper Upton and Swisher both got some of the most lucrative deals in this offseason. A number of peripherals are worrisome about Upton, and I would have loved Swisher myself for his skillset.
2. Sign TWO QUALITY starting pitchers. Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Saunders. These are all guys you can probably get on 2-3 year deals in the $10-12M range max.
So lets say another $22 million on two starting pitchers. We are back to the $110M mark they had this year, or $95M for plan B
Well the Cubs did attempt to land 3 of the four pitchers that you mentioned and succeed in one case. Haren they didn't like his medicals, and his declining velocity and huge spike in numbers aren't particular inspiring. And even with all of that he still signed for more per year than the amount you predicted. The Cubs were willing to go to 5 years/77 million, again well beyond your 10-12 million range for 2-3 years that you were predicting, according to most reports to get Sanchez, but came up short to an old time owner that is all in for buying a World Series. And they did spend 4 years/52 million to land EJax. Saunders the Cubs have shown no interest in, but did add 3 other pitchers that are capable of starting and have actually pushed Travis Wood out of the rotation for right now.
3. Either let Josh Vitters start coming out of spring training and let him sink or swim or get a one year fill in at 3B that is not Ian Stewart. Eric Chavez has had a nice season for the Yanks or take a flier on Youkilis. Thinking $5-6M range.
So we are at like $115 or $100 depending on what happens in the OF. The remaining bench players can just be filled in.
I would have liked Eric Chavez as well to be honest, and was disappointed to see him sign such a short term/low dollar deal. No idea if he would taken an offer from the Cubs for a similar amount or not, but I would have liked to see an effort on that front.
However, nothing in the deal they gave Ian Stewart guarantees him the job. In fact they can cut him at the end of spring training for virtually no cost. If Vitters out performs Stewart in spring training it isn't impossible that he would be given the job. I agree that it is unlikely because his weakest areas is the exactly what the FO has been looking for in patience and defense.
This would give the Cubs at least four legitimate bats instead of the roughly 2.5 they had this year. Rizzo counting for the .5 since he only played about half the year.
A 2-3-4-5 of Castro, Hamilton, Soriano and Rizzo is at least respectable.
They have not seriously improved the offense this year, and the only hope for improvement comes from the possibility of internal options out playing the horrific performances of Soto, Byrd, Campana, etc. Not a pass here, but the offseason isn't finished yet. And while free agency isn't like to yield a substantial upgrade, there are the possibilities of trade still. I am hoping that another OF could be added.
It would give the Cubs four legitimate solid starting pitchers in Garza, Shark and any two of the pitchers I mentioned and leaves the #5 spot for either Wood (yuck) or Vizcaino if he comes back healthy and is ready to take the step up to the major leagues.
I know you will still call this a failure, but the pitching staff has been upgraded a ton in terms of the depth that will effect both the rotation and bullpen. The Cubs added one of the guys you wanted even though the cost was well beyond what you estimated, and added three other pitchers with upside that fill out the rest of the rotation. The bottom line is that rotation has been improved from last season when you consider the fact that Chris Volstad, Jason Berken, Randy Wells, Casey Coleman, Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Justin Germano started the same number of games (54) that Matt Garza, Paul Maholm and Ryan Dempster did. The Cubs don't have to rely on those type of arms unless they have the same luck the Blue Jays had last year in terms of injuries to the rotation next year. If the whole group is healthy then that adds more guys to the bullpen like Villanueva and Wood as it stands now.
The Cubs also went out and added a guy that has the potential to be a more than solid late inning arm. The pitching staff is better than last year even if they didn't do it exactly the way you wanted.
Does this make the Cubs World Series favorites? No.
Does it make the Cubs have a $175M payroll like people have claimed that I demand? No.
Does this financially handicap the Cubs in any way shape or form and prevent them for all of the stated goals of building the organization? No.
Is it a payroll level that I personally find acceptable of the #3 revenue team? Still no, but it is a very weak FA class.
Is it a team that on paper looks like the 100 loss team the Cubs looked like on paper last year and played out as this season? No.
Does that team look any worse than the Orioles did on paper last offseason and are now 3 games away from making the playoffs? No.
Would this at least be a much more watchable team than the AAA train wreck of a team that we were forced to watch this year? Yes.
Would it actually give the Cubs a couple more pieces under team control for the next couple years while the system develops without hindering the development of the system? Yes.
Without moves like this, I have a hard time seeing the Cubs field a team with a payroll of over $90M.
People grasp to the $110 number that barely keeps the Cubs in the top 10 payrolls in baseball and is artificially fueled by Carlos Zambrano.
$90 million would put the Cubs squarely in the middle of the pack in payroll while remaining a top 5 revenue team. That is not acceptable.
This team would most likely be average, but the talk from the front office indicates to me that they are preparing for another 100 loss season which would suck much, much more and no one should be satisfied with no matter how many prospects the team has.
I agree with most of the statements here, but here is where the Cubs are at financially right now. Going by baseball-reference's contract information prior to the Edwin Jackson and Carlos Villanueva signings the Cubs have 62.5 million in guaranteed contracts. That doesn't include Shark's, Garza, Russell, etc. arbitration which they estimate will push the payroll to 82 million. Edwin Jackson's deal is weird in that it is quasi frontloaded with a signing bonus that makes this year actually 18 million. Villanueva's deal isn't official yet, but lets just put in the AAV of the contract which is reportedly 5 million. That 23 million pushed the Cubs payroll to 105 million which would be right in that area you stated as an acceptable given the free agent class available. The Cubs also are still not done and that payroll could be in the 110-115 million range when it is all said and done. A Soriano, Marmol or Garza trade could all drop that payroll a little (most of it coming with a Garza given the cash the Cubs would have to eat to get any sort of return for the other two)
Then add in the fact that Cubs are going to be a player in the market for Cuban SS prospect Diaz. Again you might not like the choice of investments, but this is not likely to be a cheap target.
Bottom line is they didn't accomplish one of your goals, at worst they accomplished half of the second goal and are still capable of doing the third goal easily. The roster has been improved from last year, and the Cubs are spending in the ballpark you outlined for this year.
keep it coming.
