Trade deadline banter

[brett05]

So here's what I'm wondering. Does Lackey hold any value? I don't suspect the cubs will actually move him but I feel like you'd rather be giving Butler/Montgomery that #5 guy slot. And while Lackey's ERA is enormous, he's not the worst buy low candidate ever. He's owed like $8 mil the rest of the way and is a FA after the year. He strikes me as someone that might make sense to a team like the Yankees who need a guy but don't really wanna go all out giving up prospects.

I don't know that the cubs make this move or even try to but realistically there's no way he should be starting in the playoffs for the cubs with their top 4 and I think it's debatable who gives you more in the second half between him and whomever you go with out of Butler/Montgomery. Plus I don't know that the cubs really are in on Gray but if that trade happens you have to move Lackey. Might be worth while to float the idea and see what's out there. If you could get 1-2 fringe top 30 guys think it'd be worth while to consider moving him.

Worth the check? Always. Going to happen? I'd put the odds at 0%. He's done. And teams know it. He's a filler at this point to prevent promotion of guys that aren't ready yet. That's his only value.

 

[beckdawg]

Worth the check? Always. Going to happen? I'd put the odds at 0%. He's done. And teams know it. He's a filler at this point to prevent promotion of guys that aren't ready yet. That's his only value.

I don't know man. Just thinking about Dan Haren to the cubs in 2015. Granted he had a 3.49 ERA but it was 3 straight years of 4.80+ ERA prior to that. Cubs gave up Ivan Pineyro and Elliot Soto neither of who were real prospects. Pineyro was the better of the two. And the thing is Lackey's numbers other than his ERA aren't *that* bad. His hard hit rate is only up 3% from last year and his line drive rate is actually down. His k/9 is still around league average and his walk rate is below league average. The 21.2% HR/FB rate is killing him though. It's double his career rate.

I think you can say he's objectively worse than he was last year but I don't think he's almost +2 full runs of ERA worse. xFIP has him at 4.54 which is probably pretty fair. Not good by any means but I think that HR/FB rate has to fall. Rick Porcello for example has the highest hard hit rate in baseball at 41.7% yet his HR/FB is 12.3%. Robbie Ray is #2 and his HR/FB rate is 14.0%.

And the thing about the deadline is only a handful of names actually move. Often a case of beggers can't be choosers.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think they will trade him. Theo tends to be loyal to his guys. He even did Hammel right by not tagging him with a Comp

Lackey has been hampered with a foot issue and honestly with the excess depth that they have they can DL him as needed.

 

[anotheridiot]

Worth the check? Always. Going to happen? I'd put the odds at 0%. He's done. And teams know it. He's a filler at this point to prevent promotion of guys that aren't ready yet. That's his only value.

Hammel was 11-2 or whatever first half last year and did not make the playoff roster. No way Lackey makes it this year, even without adding another pitcher. I dont think any pitcher we get now is starting in a playoff game. Lester, Jake, Q and Hendricks. Anyone else is in case of injury to the top 4.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't think they will trade him. Theo tends to be loyal to his guys. He even did Hammel right by not tagging him with a Comp

Lackey has been hampered with a foot issue and honestly with the excess depth that they have they can DL him as needed.

I think it is rather unlikely as well but if Lackey plans on pitching next year he's probably better off on another team where you don't have to worry about DL stints like you're suggesting

 

[pseudonym]

Maybe they switch to a FOUR-man rotation, and put those guys in the bullpen?

 

[brett05]

I don't know man. Just thinking about Dan Haren to the cubs in 2015. Granted he had a 3.49 ERA but it was 3 straight years of 4.80+ ERA prior to that. Cubs gave up Ivan Pineyro and Elliot Soto neither of who were real prospects. Pineyro was the better of the two. And the thing is Lackey's numbers other than his ERA aren't *that* bad. His hard hit rate is only up 3% from last year and his line drive rate is actually down. His k/9 is still around league average and his walk rate is below league average. The 21.2% HR/FB rate is killing him though. It's double his career rate.

I think you can say he's objectively worse than he was last year but I don't think he's almost +2 full runs of ERA worse. xFIP has him at 4.54 which is probably pretty fair. Not good by any means but I think that HR/FB rate has to fall. Rick Porcello for example has the highest hard hit rate in baseball at 41.7% yet his HR/FB is 12.3%. Robbie Ray is #2 and his HR/FB rate is 14.0%.

And the thing about the deadline is only a handful of names actually move. Often a case of beggers can't be choosers.

But you could roll the dice with better lesser guys. guys from just the White Sox like Holland, Gonzalez, Holmberg, Pelfrey, Shields that come cheaper and have potentially more upside and that's just one team. Lackey IS NOT the worst. Far from it. But given his age, his effectiveness, etc...Just a lot better choices out there in my eyes.

 

[brett05]

I don't think they will trade him. Theo tends to be loyal to his guys. He even did Hammel right by not tagging him with a Comp

Lackey has been hampered with a foot issue and honestly with the excess depth that they have they can DL him as needed.

They'll only DL him if he's injured. This isn't the NBA.

 

[beckdawg]

But you could roll the dice with better lesser guys. guys from just the White Sox like Holland, Gonzalez, Holmberg, Pelfrey, Shields that come cheaper and have potentially more upside and that's just one team. Lackey IS NOT the worst. Far from it. But given his age, his effectiveness, etc...Just a lot better choices out there in my eyes.

Gonzalez Holmberg and Pelfrey all have a k/9 below 6 which is horrid. Shields is owed at least $33 mil more so while he certainly would be cheap in terms of prospects he's not cheap in terms of salary and you own him for next year too which given his performance isn't exactly a good thing. Holland's the only one on that list who in my eyes is applicable to Lackey.

Edit: also for what it's worth there's only 52 pitchers with qualified innings in the majors with > 7 k/9. And you have to figure a large majority of those are on contending teams or are pieces that wont/can't be traded. I'd argue there's maybe 5-10 guys who fit a similar profile to what Lackey does. That doesn't mean Lackey gets traded or anything I'm just saying it's not as common as you're making it out to be. If a team is actually going to acquire a guy he has to have at least some hope of being worth while.

 

[CSF77]

I think it is rather unlikely as well but if Lackey plans on pitching next year he's probably better off on another team where you don't have to worry about DL stints like you're suggesting

He is not a Cub next year. As far as the 4 man rotation it really depends on the 2nd half stats. You can pretty much ass can the 1/2 half

 

[CSF77]

They'll only DL him if he's injured. This isn't the NBA.

Come on now. New 10 day. Can push back to their last start. That means only missing 1 start in a 5 man. Huge exploit right now.

 

[brett05]

Come on now. New 10 day. Can push back to their last start. That means only missing 1 start in a 5 man. Huge exploit right now.

No one is making up injuries. Again, this is not the NBA

 

[TC in Mississippi]

No one is making up injuries. Again, this is not the NBA

I think there are some questionable injuries and MLB was concerned about them increasing with reduction to the 10 day DL, they even stated that they would crack down on it but to date they have not. Whether they just aren't seeing anything too sketchy or they haven't decided to push yet I don't know. So I would agree it isn't the NBA but smart people will push boundaries.

 

[brett05]

I think there are some questionable injuries and MLB was concerned about them increasing with reduction to the 10 day DL, they even stated that they would crack down on it but to date they have not. Whether they just aren't seeing anything too sketchy or they haven't decided to push yet I don't know. So I would agree it isn't the NBA but smart people will push boundaries.

They used to say that with the 14 day dl as well. And it was not done. Fans had theories about it but it seems to be one of those integrity of the game situations.

 

[chibears55]

So here's what I'm wondering. Does Lackey hold any value? I don't suspect the cubs will actually move him but I feel like you'd rather be giving Butler/Montgomery that #5 guy slot. And while Lackey's ERA is enormous, he's not the worst buy low candidate ever. He's owed like $8 mil the rest of the way and is a FA after the year. He strikes me as someone that might make sense to a team like the Yankees who need a guy but don't really wanna go all out giving up prospects.

I don't know that the cubs make this move or even try to but realistically there's no way he should be starting in the playoffs for the cubs with their top 4 and I think it's debatable who gives you more in the second half between him and whomever you go with out of Butler/Montgomery. Plus I don't know that the cubs really are in on Gray but if that trade happens you have to move Lackey. Might be worth while to float the idea and see what's out there. If you could get 1-2 fringe top 30 guys think it'd be worth while to consider moving him.

I suggested dangling Lackey out there for deadline deal over a month ago and was told i was crazy and they'd never do that, and Lackey just a 4th starter and an inning eater and all.. guess I'm not that crazy...

Here my thought again..

Cubs being 5-6 games out with 70 to play , they can't afford to have a guy in rotation who just gonna eat innings and struggle for most part..

Why I think they'll look to add an upgrade to rotation over having Lackey Montgomery and Butler struggle there..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[chibears55]

https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/7/16/15979550/mlb-trade-rumors-blue-jays-marcus-stroman-cubs

I just found this..
This is the guy I want if the Cubs are willing to part with someone on 25 man roster..

This move would solidify the rotation this year and the next couple years..

Schwarber Russell or Baez would be well worth trading for Stroman..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I suggested dangling Lackey out there for deadline deal over a month ago and was told i was crazy and they'd never do that, and Lackey just a 4th starter and an inning eater and all.. guess I'm not that crazy...

Here my thought again..

Cubs being 5-6 games out with 70 to play , they can't afford to have a guy in rotation who just gonna eat innings and struggle for most part..

Why I think they'll look to add an upgrade to rotation over having Lackey Montgomery and Butler struggle there..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Hendricks is the key to this season. If he comes back strong they have what they need to win the division. If he doesn't they have a great head start on next year. 5th starters aren't terribly important when 1-4 are doing their jobs. The Cubs can cobble together 5 with a combination of Lackey, Butler and Anderson. If any of those guys are being counted on to pitch well on a regular basis then you have bigger issues. Sure, if Lackey is the odd man out and someone wants to go all 2015 Dan Haren then by all means move him but that's a roster move not a trade, not really.

I know it keeps being said that the Cubs are in on Gray but I don't believe it and very few of the national baseball guys do either. It makes sense for Theo to still be on talks though because the last thing you want is for Milwaukee to get him on the cheap so you stay in it to keep the price high. I also don't think the Brewers get him in the end. If the price is a guy like Corey Ray, a 55 grade prospect ready as soon as next year, they'd be foolish to do it when they are overperforming their talent and are about to have a very nice 5 year window. Stearns is not a dummy but he's doing his due diligence as he should, especially with Beane who could throw out an oddball name that he wants. he probably won't though in this case because they look close to a window, at least an Oakland kind of window, and want big league talent. They want Bregman from Houston, which has been reported, then you'd figure on one of Schwarber, Happ or Russell being the ask from the Cubs. If I'm Theo, and I'm even the slightest bit willing to discuss those players, I'm waiting to the offseason and talking to Tampa Bay again. They're just starting a window and pitching is probably not going to be a problem with the young arms they have coming and the fact that they have a little money to spend. If I I'm Theo I'm just not trading all I have left for Gray. He's not a big enough fish. Now if it comes down where they could trade Candelario, Zagunis, etc. than sure, that's why the talks are still open, but I don't think he has roster players on the table.

 

[brett05]

https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/7/16/15979550/mlb-trade-rumors-blue-jays-marcus-stroman-cubs

I just found this..
This is the guy I want if the Cubs are willing to part with someone on 25 man roster..

This move would solidify the rotation this year and the next couple years..

Schwarber Russell or Baez would be well worth trading for Stroman..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Kyle doesn't get the needle moving. In just about every attempt at a move Theo has offered up Kyle and the answer is thanks but no thanks. Theo overvalued Kyle. Time for Kyle to make Theo look great.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So it's kind of hard to figure Houston out. If the reports are true that they won't part with Bregman for Gray, would they trade him for Cole? Is that their endgame? They're on the kind of magic carpet ride the Cubs were on last year and you don't get a lot of those and, in my opinion, if they don't get one more starting pitcher they lose in the playoffs probably to Boston in the ALCS. So you have to figure they will do something but really Gray is the only sure move left with Cole more iffy.

 

[brett05]

So it's kind of hard to figure Houston out. If the reports are true that they won't part with Bregman for Gray, would they trade him for Cole? Is that their endgame? They're on the kind of magic carpet ride the Cubs were on last year and you don't get a lot of those and, in my opinion, if they don't get one more starting pitcher they lose in the playoffs probably to Boston in the ALCS. So you have to figure they will do something but really Gray is the only sure move left with Cole more iffy.

If I am houston, I check in with the Giants and see if they'd take a very nice package for MadBum.