Trade deadline/rumors

[beckdawg]

They could use a LH thumper on the bench. Outside of Rizzo there is no one that really puts fear into you from the left side.

I think you're confusing this a bit. It matters less what handed they are and more about how they match up against LHP/RHP. Baez and Soler are both really strong vs lefties. Not sure if you're viewing Contreras as a bench guy but he has a .393 wOBA vs RHP. La Stella doesn't have a big power bat but he has a .358 wOBA. But additionally, I'm not sure there's a big need to sub guys out vs righties. Zobrist and Fowler switch hit. Heyward and Rizzo are lefties. Bryant is Bryant. Russell crushes righties and struggles vs lefties.

I suppose you can make the case for another bench bat vs righties but it's not super glaring.

 

[TL1961]

So far that has not been shown to be true, the covet part. I provided a list the other day on here of guys that have been overvalued.

You don't think other teams covet the Cubs' MI?

Baez is constantly brought up in trade talks, and they know damn well they're not getting our starting SS.

 

[CSF77]

I think you're confusing this a bit. It matters less what handed they are and more about how they match up against LHP/RHP. Baez and Soler are both really strong vs lefties. Not sure if you're viewing Contreras as a bench guy but he has a .393 wOBA vs RHP. La Stella doesn't have a big power bat but he has a .358 wOBA. But additionally, I'm not sure there's a big need to sub guys out vs righties. Zobrist and Fowler switch hit. Heyward and Rizzo are lefties. Bryant is Bryant. Russell crushes righties and struggles vs lefties.

I suppose you can make the case for another bench bat vs righties but it's not super glaring.

Contreras I expect to start in LF. I'm feeling Maddon will put the pitching first and use Montero/Ross.

What I meant was a LH power bat on the bench. From the left side Rizzo is the only legit HR hitter. Others can hit left and can hit a HR but are not considered a power threat there. And no I don't believe this person should be starting. He should be ready to plugged in into ph roles.

You said it your self. They have Soler and Baez who crush LH pitching. But who do they have on the bench who can wreck a righty? LaStella? Montero when Ross starts? Not really solid choices.

 

[CSF77]

I would be fine having a bench of (off catcher), Baez, Soler, LaStella and a power lefty. An arguement can be made about Szczur over Soler but Soler has the power factor going. Sure if you plug Baez into the prime power from the R side it would be suffice. But his true strength is creating flex where you lose nothing by subbing. Soler you lose D by adding.

Even in DH situations you want Baez starting and DH the weakest link. So in view of this you want a game changer on the bench.

 

[CSF77]

So in theory. If Theo didnt shut the door on Schwarber in the play offs he would have been ideal. Vogelbach fit the typecast but lacked experience.

Just my call. Not a major move but adding a LH hitting vet power bat. Someone you can PH for the starting catcher or pitcher if needed. Just the threat of that on the bench dictates how teams approach the lower part of the line up. Walking a 7 hitter can become a bad scenario when Montero gets pulled then Ross can catch the next inning

 

[chibears55]

@LaurenceWHolmes: This is the Schwarber trade idea piece we are talking about right now on The Score. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-of-kyle-schwarber/

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[Parade_Rain]

I could see Schwarber in LF, Heyward in CF and Bryant in RF next year with Baez starting at 3B. That puts Almora and Szczur as your OF depth. They would need to add a MI at that point to go along with LaStella.

Just getting Schwarber back would off set the loss of Fowler.

Fowler sets the table as the leadoff hitter and he's done a magnificent job this season. I don't think that's easily replaceable.

 

[Omeletpants]

@LaurenceWHolmes: This is the Schwarber trade idea piece we are talking about right now on The Score. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-of-kyle-schwarber/

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writer is not high on long term value of Schwarbie

 

[CSF77]

Fowler sets the table as the leadoff hitter and he's done a magnificent job this season. I don't think that's easily replaceable.

Zobrist, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Schwarber, Baez, Heyward, Russell, Pitcher

Enough said.

As much as we talk about losing Fowler what was the biggest issue was leading off with Zo. He was top 3 in RBI's and gave a protection to Rizzo. Contreras gave some protection back. But the idea is making the line up intense 1-8.

 

[CSF77]

writer is not high on long term value of Schwarbie

Peeps will always look at his flaws. I don't doubt his will power

 

[SilenceS]

Peeps will always look at his flaws. I don't doubt his will power

Im not one to say work ethic over everything. Its why I dont believe in Almora that much. But, I believe in Schwarber work ethic and I was one that did not care for the draft pick. He is a worker.

 

[SilenceS]

I think you're confusing this a bit. It matters less what handed they are and more about how they match up against LHP/RHP. Baez and Soler are both really strong vs lefties. Not sure if you're viewing Contreras as a bench guy but he has a .393 wOBA vs RHP. La Stella doesn't have a big power bat but he has a .358 wOBA. But additionally, I'm not sure there's a big need to sub guys out vs righties. Zobrist and Fowler switch hit. Heyward and Rizzo are lefties. Bryant is Bryant. Russell crushes righties and struggles vs lefties.

I suppose you can make the case for another bench bat vs righties but it's not super glaring.

Zobrist problem is he had a huge month and has been terrible since. Maybe thats baseball evening out, but he has been really bad for the past two months. His last half of the month has been horrendous. I think 4 for 40 something.

 

[CSF77]

Zobrist problem is he had a huge month and has been terrible since. Maybe thats baseball evening out, but he has been really bad for the past two months. His last half of the month has been horrendous. I think 4 for 40 something.

It is an issue for sure. He is 35 and it is not going to get better. That is why they should never trade Happ. He could end on the team next year to rest Zo more.

I feel Zo's biggest issue is he has never really been a starter. Now he is every day playing. Add to it he is older and went through a 24 game string.

 

[CSF77]

Im not one to say work ethic over everything. Its why I dont believe in Almora that much. But, I believe in Schwarber work ethic and I was one that did not care for the draft pick. He is a worker.

They seem polar to each other don't they? Only thing akin is their work ethic.

 

[beckdawg]

@LaurenceWHolmes: This is the Schwarber trade idea piece we are talking about right now on The Score. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-of-kyle-schwarber/

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I read this earlier today and while I generally enjoy fangraphs articles, I don't think it gave enough room for Schwarber to grow. The thing is, he was in the majors a year after being drafted. Now sure he's a college hitter but by any standards that is impressive. So, it's perfectly logical to think that whatever he was he'd improve say 5-10%. Additionally, I don't think it takes into account two things about any trade for pitching. The obvious is that any pitcher can blow out their arm basically at any time. The second thing is that Miller isn't exactly young. He's 31 right now. The problem with that is he basically has to keep being what he has been for it to be even a discussion. If he loses say 1-2 mph on his fastball that really changes who he is.

I also hate this idea that people throw out that one world series win cures everything. I mean I get it, cubs fans want to win finally. But the red sox didn't become a model franchise because they won the world series. They became one because the continually were competing for one. A team that has gone all in to win and then lost it is Miami and clearly they haven't enjoyed the same fan base success despite being essentially winning as many titles in the past 20 years.

 

[beckdawg]

Zobrist problem is he had a huge month and has been terrible since. Maybe thats baseball evening out, but he has been really bad for the past two months. His last half of the month has been horrendous. I think 4 for 40 something.

I looked into this a bit the other day. I didn't dive super deep but it looked like a case of bad BABIP more than anything. Here's a breakdown

2016 Mar/Apr 18.7 %/11.0 % .260/.396/.356 .096 .286
2016 May 13.2 %/13.2 % .406/.483/.653 .248 .432
2016 Jun 14.3 %/16.1 % .221/.339/.368 .147 .243
2016 Jul 10.7 %/12.5 % .100/.196/.300 .200 .050

That's bb/k rate, triple slash, ISO then BABIP by month. Now it could be he's not hitting the ball as hard which tanked his BABIP. Looking there, the difference really isn't huge. You're talking about a soft contact rate of 14.1%, 9.1%, 24.7% and this month 18.6%. Now clearly june was a really bad month and July is down a bit but the numbers suggest june was him actually playing poorly and July is more a fluke with him being closer to his Mar/Apr numbers. His ground ball rate is up a bit the past two months as well which is probably hurting him some.

Long story short, I'm guessing there's a few minor things wrong with him right now he needs to iron out but it really doesn't look like a guy who's just done. He's still hitting for decent power even in June he's just not getting many normal hits and that's obviously tanking his average a bit. If I had to guess, I'd say think something like .270/.360/.420 the rest of the way. The projections systems put him at .272/.364/.441 for zips, .269/.362/.425 for streamer and .270/.363/.433 for depth charts so they think he'll have a bit more power than I do.

 

[chibears55]

I read this earlier today and while I generally enjoy fangraphs articles, I don't think it gave enough room for Schwarber to grow. The thing is, he was in the majors a year after being drafted. Now sure he's a college hitter but by any standards that is impressive. So, it's perfectly logical to think that whatever he was he'd improve say 5-10%. Additionally, I don't think it takes into account two things about any trade for pitching. The obvious is that any pitcher can blow out their arm basically at any time. The second thing is that Miller isn't exactly young. He's 31 right now. The problem with that is he basically has to keep being what he has been for it to be even a discussion. If he loses say 1-2 mph on his fastball that really changes who he is.

I also hate this idea that people throw out that one world series win cures everything. I mean I get it, cubs fans want to win finally. But the red sox didn't become a model franchise because they won the world series. They became one because the continually were competing for one. A team that has gone all in to win and then lost it is Miami and clearly they haven't enjoyed the same fan base success despite being essentially winning as many titles in the past 20 years.

I'm not pushing to trade Schwarber but

I don't feel trading him weakens their goal to continue to compete year after year, they have enough young talent to keep that going.
Plus
I just don't see him being that everyday OFer 2,3,4,5 yrs from now, and now with Contreras, he not going to catch all that much if he still able too.

I think his near future is as a DH and it wouldn't surprise me if he traded by next off season for a starting pitcher.

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[brett05]

Are you talking Castro? Cause that's the only MI that has been traded. Alcantara was never considered a top get.


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Those are two examples of which both have been overvalued.

 

[brett05]

You don't think other teams covet the Cubs' MI?

Baez is constantly brought up in trade talks, and they know damn well they're not getting our starting SS.

Look at the offers that are being made, no, covet is what the Dbacks probably showed with Miller. That's coveting.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Those are two examples of which both have been overvalued.

Outside of Beckdawg, who overvalued Alcantara?