Trade deadline/rumors

[TC in Mississippi]

No way can we be buyers at the dead line this year. Our whole organizational outlook is the next 5-10 years.

With our historic and stunning collapse this season, the single worst thing we could do is jeopardize future years for a season in which we are not realistically going to compete.

I'm still somewhat shell-shocked by our complete unraveling. But we have to stay the course with our 5-10 year plan.

As insane as it sounds, we should probably move Arrieta to further stock our farm system. He has fallen off a cliff completely and will be walking after next season anyways. If this continues who knows what he'll be worth at that point.

In my 36 years as a Cubs fan, this season is the second most disappointing ever (behind only 2003).

We should have known better, guys.


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Given the talent I have no idea how you can give up on a season on July 9 while the team still has a 7.5 game divisional lead. This skid sucks but it's statistically unlikely to stay this bad. It could happen but it's more likely this is s playoff team with as good a chance as anyone else.

 

[beckdawg]

How much talent are you paying for Smyly? Seeing that currently at 2-10 with a ERA ballooned up at 5.47. The SO/BB are good and I'm expecting him to improve going to the NL.

I could see Vogelbach and a pitcher like Johnson or some one off the radar with upside. But no one that is a high end talent.

It's difficult to say. I think it would take more than Vogelbach and Johnson just given what pitching has cost this past offseason. But the reason why I sorta like the idea for Smyly is that I don't think it would take Torres. Given how poorly his results have been let's call him a #3 pitcher value. He strikes me as roughly a similar level player to Gio Gonzo before he was traded to Washington though Gio had better results and Smyly may have more upside. I think both had similar length to their deals. Gio was traded for AJ Cole, Tommy Milone, Derek Noris and Brad Peacock. Washington also got a PTBNL back who wasn't noteworthy. Peacock at the time was a reliever in the nats organization but the A's converted him to a starter. He had good results but was a 41st round pick so I don't particularly think he had a huge talent ceiling. Noris was the #72 prospect for 2011. Cole was #57 the year after the trade. Milone was a soft throwing guy like say Ryan Williams.

I think you can make he argument that something like McKinney, Vogelbach, and two 15-30ish prospects would be fair or at least not far off. Vogelbach is kind of hard to grade in trades because it really comes down to someone buying into his bat. So, some might view him as a top 100 talent. Others might view him more in the 200 range. I think you could also consider Candelario in that deal as well and still not feel too poorly if your'e the cubs. Say something like McKinney, Candelario, Vogelbach and a low level prospect. That might be a bit rich. I'm not sure. i don't think Smyly was ever a top 75 pitcher so giving up a top 100 guy plus 2 guys that are at leas tin the top 150 seems like a lot.

 

[beckdawg]

No way can we be buyers at the dead line this year. Our whole organizational outlook is the next 5-10 years.

With our historic and stunning collapse this season, the single worst thing we could do is jeopardize future years for a season in which we are not realistically going to compete.

I'm still somewhat shell-shocked by our complete unraveling. But we have to stay the course with our 5-10 year plan.

As insane as it sounds, we should probably move Arrieta to further stock our farm system. He has fallen off a cliff completely and will be walking after next season anyways. If this continues who knows what he'll be worth at that point.

In my 36 years as a Cubs fan, this season is the second most disappointing ever (behind only 2003).

We should have known better, guys.


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You realize the cubs have next to no starters near the majors right and they literally don't have enough positions to play all their near ready hitting. "Staying the course" means you're wasting value in guys like Vogelbach who are never going to see the field on the cubs. You develop talent you like and trade redundant talent for areas you're weak in. Now if you're saying don't trade for Andrew Miller, fine. I don't particularly think he's worth the price myself. But trading away 2-3 guys who aren't going to see the field with the cubs for someone like Smyly is a win win for the cubs. They get a 27 year old pitcher they can hopefully develop into the next Arrieta and it costs them parts they couldn't use anyways. That then buys them time for guys like Cease to hopefully become the starters they think they are.

 

[CSF77]

It's difficult to say. I think it would take more than Vogelbach and Johnson just given what pitching has cost this past offseason. But the reason why I sorta like the idea for Smyly is that I don't think it would take Torres. Given how poorly his results have been let's call him a #3 pitcher value. He strikes me as roughly a similar level player to Gio Gonzo before he was traded to Washington though Gio had better results and Smyly may have more upside. I think both had similar length to their deals. Gio was traded for AJ Cole, Tommy Milone, Derek Noris and Brad Peacock. Washington also got a PTBNL back who wasn't noteworthy. Peacock at the time was a reliever in the nats organization but the A's converted him to a starter. He had good results but was a 41st round pick so I don't particularly think he had a huge talent ceiling. Noris was the #72 prospect for 2011. Cole was #57 the year after the trade. Milone was a soft throwing guy like say Ryan Williams.

I think you can make he argument that something like McKinney, Vogelbach, and two 15-30ish prospects would be fair or at least not far off. Vogelbach is kind of hard to grade in trades because it really comes down to someone buying into his bat. So, some might view him as a top 100 talent. Others might view him more in the 200 range. I think you could also consider Candelario in that deal as well and still not feel too poorly if your'e the cubs. Say something like McKinney, Candelario, Vogelbach and a low level prospect. That might be a bit rich. I'm not sure. i don't think Smyly was ever a top 75 pitcher so giving up a top 100 guy plus 2 guys that are at leas tin the top 150 seems like a lot.

Candy, Vogelbach and Almora for Smyly and another mid tier arm. After extend Fowler. It is pretty obvious that Fowler makes this team tick. Almora will never have that impact.

 

[CSF77]

You realize the cubs have next to no starters near the majors right and they literally don't have enough positions to play all their near ready hitting. "Staying the course" means you're wasting value in guys like Vogelbach who are never going to see the field on the cubs. You develop talent you like and trade redundant talent for areas you're weak in. Now if you're saying don't trade for Andrew Miller, fine. I don't particularly think he's worth the price myself. But trading away 2-3 guys who aren't going to see the field with the cubs for someone like Smyly is a win win for the cubs. They get a 27 year old pitcher they can hopefully develop into the next Arrieta and it costs them parts they couldn't use anyways. That then buys them time for guys like Cease to hopefully become the starters they think they are.

Theo pretty much said they have no answers for starting pitching. So that means just that. Ceace etc are too far away to even start to consider. Rest are not good enough.

This is the result of not drafting pitching in the first round. Not saying what they did is wrong but you have no high upside fast to the majors college arms upcoming. Just projectile HS arms for the most part with back of the rotation/BP filler.

The best answer if to acquire proven talent from outside vs cross your fingers. That is why you stock pile positional depth. It becomes trade commodity.

 

[Diehardfan]

Candy, Vogelbach and Almora for Smyly and another mid tier arm. After extend Fowler. It is pretty obvious that Fowler makes this team tick. Almora will never have that impact.

I couldn't agree more. A lead off switch hitter who gets on base, runs the bases well, hits the occasional HR and plays a decent CF. I've seen enough of Almora to know that Fowler is as big a piece of the puzzle as anyone in the Cub's clubhouse. He's only 30 and still in his prime. Extending him is a no-brainer.

 

[beckdawg]

Candy, Vogelbach and Almora for Smyly and another mid tier arm. After extend Fowler. It is pretty obvious that Fowler makes this team tick. Almora will never have that impact.

Kind of a dangerous idea. Cubs don't have a lot of CF depth and what they do have is in A ball. I personally think Almora is better than you do but if I humor your argument that he's not an impact guy, why would you not just keep him around as your #4/5 OF? Fowler historically hasn't remained healthy and as we're seeing now they don't have a lot of answers without him. Removing yet another guy just makes the problem worse. Ultimately, I like McKinney but he's not a CF and the corners are going to be manned by Heyward and probably Schwarber/Bryant. I have to think you'd trade him first not to mention the Rays really don't need a CF.

Basically keeping Fowler doesn't mean you have to trade Almora and the fact you're probably rostering Schwarber in LF necessitates the need for strong defenders on the bench. A fairly basic idea would be to roll with your bats early and then when you double switch hopefully with a lead later in the game you can bring in stronger defenders such as Almora and or Baez if he's not starting and use their added defense to secure games.

 

[CSF77]

Kind of a dangerous idea. Cubs don't have a lot of CF depth and what they do have is in A ball. I personally think Almora is better than you do but if I humor your argument that he's not an impact guy, why would you not just keep him around as your #4/5 OF? Fowler historically hasn't remained healthy and as we're seeing now they don't have a lot of answers without him. Removing yet another guy just makes the problem worse. Ultimately, I like McKinney but he's not a CF and the corners are going to be manned by Heyward and probably Schwarber/Bryant. I have to think you'd trade him first not to mention the Rays really don't need a CF.

Basically keeping Fowler doesn't mean you have to trade Almora and the fact you're probably rostering Schwarber in LF necessitates the need for strong defenders on the bench. A fairly basic idea would be to roll with your bats early and then when you double switch hopefully with a lead later in the game you can bring in stronger defenders such as Almora and or Baez if he's not starting and use their added defense to secure games.

I'll start with they have Szczur who fits that role better. So if you are looking for a 4th OF you have him already. 5th they don't need with Bryant and Zorbrist able to come in.

On the Fowler injury issue I wouldn't concern myself over that. Injuries happen and all you can do is have depth. This year it has been a string of injuries vs 1 guy. You use Zobrist, LaStella and Szczur to balance the equation. All can fill the 1/2 role.

I like McKinney but he's not a CF and the corners are going to be manned by Heyward and probably Schwarber/Bryant.

If that is who they want I wouldn't stand in the way.

Basically keeping Fowler doesn't mean you have to trade Almora

No that pretty much does. That is a commitment to CF long term. I see it as the fall off the table with Fowler on the DL and Almora losing playing time to Heyward in CF says much. Almora did not take the job at all. Contreras did so there is no, there is no opportunity. Production creates opportunity vs it is given to you.

Like I said earlier. This team's O is centered around Fowler. No other player has filled that void. Sure you can say D wise you are better but the complete package that Fowler gives has not been replaced. It shows in the playing time given out. It goes to Heyward in CF for the most part with either Bryant or Zobrist helping out in RF. Then Baez and now LaStella giving support. We have seen Bryant in LF and Zobrist in RF with Lastella at 3B and Baez at 2B while Contreras has been catching. But no Almora.

That speaks volume of the state of things. They do not trust Almora other than late switch for pen arms. That is the reality that this team is going through. Even when Almora becomes dependable he doesn't profile as a 2 hitter. His OBA is co-dependent on his BA too much. That bit is too unpredictable to become trust worthy.

So in view of this and seeing how there is not clear cut CF for at least 2 years. Maybe a year if you convert the answer is to extend what is working now.

I would take a proven guy like Fowler who could face injury like any other player vs a guy that is not proven and has holes in his game that may push him into a 4th OF role.

 

[beckdawg]

No that pretty much does. That is a commitment to CF long term.

Fowler is going to slow down as he ages. It's entirely likely in 2-3 years you may not want him in CF defensively. As for Szczur, he's gonna be 27 next year. He's not exactly a spring chicken at this stage and he's not really a CF defensively. They don't trust a 22 year old rookie? I mean come on man that's hyperbole. That's like saying they didn't trust Baez anymore after he was sent down after his first call up. Young players aren't going to be Kris Bryant most of the time. Almora hasn't even played that poorly. He has an 85 wRC+ which is actually higher than what Heyward has on the season.

If you don't like Almora that's fine but to sit here and say that trading him doesn't severely weaken their organizational depth in CF is flat out false. Their best non-Almora CF prospect is probably Eddy Martinez who's played ok in A but he's not exactly killing it yet. Their second best CF prospect is probably Dewees who's also in A and isn't really much of a bat himself. Their third best CF is DJ Wilson who's in A-. Szczur has played 115 innings in CF and has a UZR/150 of -61.9. He's not a strong defensive OF as he has a -7.7 UZR/150 over 457 innings in the OF overall. To sit there and say "you can't worry about injuries" is again totally the wrong idea. You have to plan for that even if it's a remote chance because if you don't you're screwed and historically Fowler has played more than 135 games in 2 seasons(2016 and 2012). If we exclude his 13 games in 2008 he missed 27 in 2009, 30 in 2010, 37 in 2011, 43 in 2013 and 46 in 2014 and he's obviously missed what a bunch already in 2016. It's more likely than not he's going to miss about 30 games.

And on top of that, knowing this organization I'm willing to put money on them keeping Almora for his character more than anything. Anyone who's ever played with him has talked about his leadership abilities. There's a reason he was selected to a record amount of team usa's. He's more than the sum of his tools. And if we're comparing him and Szczur, it's worth noting Szczur is hitting .264/.309/.407 at age 26 and is an inferior defender. Almora at 22 is hitting .269/.300/.403 in about 20 fewer PAs and he's clearly a strong defender. It's highly unlikely that Szczur gets any better while this is literally Almora's first chance at the majors.

 

[CSF77]

The point is Szczur is a 4th OF. Almora is a CF but is not a lead off. He is not even a 2 hitter. At best he is a 7 hitter due to his walk rate being at a sub 5% rate.

So yes you consider trading Almora early before he becomes a known. Right now all he is us a strong defender with some holes in his hitting. He may improve but if anything that history had told us he has not held a strong walk ratio at any point and it would be a stretch to believe he will become one.

So in view of this and seeing how this team has been built with OBA as a cornerstone I don't see it. He would have to change his whole approach. Seeing what happened with Castro after the rework I doubt they will.

It is much easier to draft a guy with the profile wanted vs forcing a player to reinvent himself.

So ya retaining Fowler makes plenty of sense.

 

[CSF77]

It would make more sense to keep Happ moving at 2B and CF. they have Zobrist for a few years and keeping Fowler around makes perfect sense. Both make a solid 1/2 in the line up.

As a pure lead off/CF I see it as Deewees. He fits the profile you want as a lead off. 2nd option would be Hannennman at AA. These guys have the basic tool set that you see in 1-2 hitters.

 

[Mr. Cub]

Trade everyone. Time to blow it upand try again.

 

[beckdawg]

So in view of this and seeing how this team has been built with OBA as a cornerstone I don't see it.

You realize Almora was the first pick this front office made right? Clearly they thought he would be a fit and he's literally always been this player.

 

[DanTown]

You realize Almora was the first pick this front office made right? Clearly they thought he would be a fit and he's literally always been this player.

I doubt when they drafted him #6 overall they thought they were a guy with an average hit tool, no power, no playable speed, and no walk discipline. He's fine in the sense of being a playable OF but he's not a guy who I would say blocks others. If you imagine the Cubs next year, I'd have to bet that the primary lineup would be Bryant in right, Baez at 3B, and Heyward in CF. That basically leaves Soler/Schwarber as a platoon.

I just struggle to see a time when Albert Almora is one of the three best options to play in the OF on a regular basis. It would have to be the Cubs have to trade a guy like Soler or Baez but I think a lot of teams would see the appeal in Almora.

I wouldn't give Fowler any long term deal but I disagree with the idea Almora is some future high level player in CF.

 

[chibears55]

I doubt when they drafted him #6 overall they thought they were a guy with an average hit tool, no power, no playable speed, and no walk discipline. He's fine in the sense of being a playable OF but he's not a guy who I would say blocks others. If you imagine the Cubs next year, I'd have to bet that the primary lineup would be Bryant in right, Baez at 3B, and Heyward in CF. That basically leaves Soler/Schwarber as a platoon.

I just struggle to see a time when Albert Almora is one of the three best options to play in the OF on a regular basis. It would have to be the Cubs have to trade a guy like Soler or Baez but I think a lot of teams would see the appeal in Almora.

I wouldn't give Fowler any long term deal but I disagree with the idea Almora is some future high level player in CF.

Almora in CF would be great with just his defense, if the rest of lineup are all plus hitters.
So, Almora can bat 8th or 9th and whatever offense he provides would be gravy.

I think that the plan with him next year...

Schwarber will be main LFer and Bryant will play LF against most lefties.

Heyward stays in RF



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[Parade_Rain]

Kind of a dangerous idea. Cubs don't have a lot of CF depth and what they do have is in A ball. I personally think Almora is better than you do but if I humor your argument that he's not an impact guy, why would you not just keep him around as your #4/5 OF? Fowler historically hasn't remained healthy and as we're seeing now they don't have a lot of answers without him. Removing yet another guy just makes the problem worse. Ultimately, I like McKinney but he's not a CF and the corners are going to be manned by Heyward and probably Schwarber/Bryant. I have to think you'd trade him first not to mention the Rays really don't need a CF.

Basically keeping Fowler doesn't mean you have to trade Almora and the fact you're probably rostering Schwarber in LF necessitates the need for strong defenders on the bench. A fairly basic idea would be to roll with your bats early and then when you double switch hopefully with a lead later in the game you can bring in stronger defenders such as Almora and or Baez if he's not starting and use their added defense to secure games.

The Cubs don't need CF as long as Fowler, Heyward and Szczur are on team. As CSF77 stated well, a leopard doesn't change his spots. Almora isn't an OBP guy who takes walks. He will be part of a trade.

 

[beckdawg]

The Cubs don't need CF as long as Fowler, Heyward and Szczur are on team. As CSF77 stated well, a leopard doesn't change his spots. Almora isn't an OBP guy who takes walks. He will be part of a trade.

He doesn't have to be a high OBP guy to fit in the team. First of all, the organizational approach isn't about walks. It's about finding your pitch to hit and laying off what you can't. Walks tend to come with that but they aren't a necessity. Right now he has a 4.3% walk rate and I think it's fair to imagine he'll sty around that. His K rate is at 20.0% That's elevated over what he did in the minors at 11.5% but then that's not really a surprise for a rookie. That should come down. Hypothetically, let's say he's at 4% and 11.5%. Daniel Murphy has been one of the best players in the majors at 5.0%/10.6%. There's numerous other examples of guys with similar rates who've become very good players.

I don't see any reason why you'd prefer to keep Szczur over Almora. Thus far Almora is hitting .269/.300/.403. On his career Szczur is hitting .239/.288/.367 on his career and .261/.306/.402 on the year. He's 26 so there's probably no growth left. Almora could very easily be a .280-.290 hitter with a .320-.330 OBP and supreme defense in a few years. That wont carry a team on his back 1) he'll put balls in play hitting after high OBP players which will lead to runs and 2) he doesn't have to carry a team on his shoulders because Rizzo, Contreras and Bryant all very well might be MVP candidates in their respective primes.

 

[Diehardfan]

He doesn't have to be a high OBP guy to fit in the team. First of all, the organizational approach isn't about walks. It's about finding your pitch to hit and laying off what you can't. Walks tend to come with that but they aren't a necessity. Right now he has a 4.3% walk rate and I think it's fair to imagine he'll sty around that. His K rate is at 20.0% That's elevated over what he did in the minors at 11.5% but then that's not really a surprise for a rookie. That should come down. Hypothetically, let's say he's at 4% and 11.5%. Daniel Murphy has been one of the best players in the majors at 5.0%/10.6%. There's numerous other examples of guys with similar rates who've become very good players.

I don't see any reason why you'd prefer to keep Szczur over Almora. Thus far Almora is hitting .269/.300/.403. On his career Szczur is hitting .239/.288/.367 on his career and .261/.306/.402 on the year. He's 26 so there's probably no growth left. Almora could very easily be a .280-.290 hitter with a .320-.330 OBP and supreme defense in a few years. That wont carry a team on his back 1) he'll put balls in play hitting after high OBP players which will lead to runs and 2) he doesn't have to carry a team on his shoulders because Rizzo, Contreras and Bryant all very well might be MVP candidates in their respective primes.

Keeping Almora over Szczur is one thing...keeping him over extending Fowler is another. Cubs need a table setter at the top of the lineup, a role Fowler has played very well. But a role not fitting Almora's game. As a backup OF, yeah Almora is fine...I just prefer Fowler as my regular CFer.

 

[Omeletpants]

He doesn't have to be a high OBP guy to fit in the team. First of all, the organizational approach isn't about walks. It's about finding your pitch to hit and laying off what you can't. Walks tend to come with that but they aren't a necessity. Right now he has a 4.3% walk rate and I think it's fair to imagine he'll sty around that. His K rate is at 20.0% That's elevated over what he did in the minors at 11.5% but then that's not really a surprise for a rookie. That should come down. Hypothetically, let's say he's at 4% and 11.5%. Daniel Murphy has been one of the best players in the majors at 5.0%/10.6%. There's numerous other examples of guys with similar rates who've become very good players.

I don't see any reason why you'd prefer to keep Szczur over Almora. Thus far Almora is hitting .269/.300/.403. On his career Szczur is hitting .239/.288/.367 on his career and .261/.306/.402 on the year. He's 26 so there's probably no growth left. Almora could very easily be a .280-.290 hitter with a .320-.330 OBP and supreme defense in a few years. That wont carry a team on his back 1) he'll put balls in play hitting after high OBP players which will lead to runs and 2) he doesn't have to carry a team on his shoulders because Rizzo, Contreras and Bryant all very well might be MVP candidates in their respective primes.

I loved the idea of a player like Almora being brought up and making an impact on both sides and he looked solid on defense. But he doesnt exhibit any real power nor does he hit the ball solidly. When he gets a hit it's all he can do to get it over the infileders head. He doesnt take pitches or walks....ok. He doesnt really have gap power. You say he is potentially a .280 hitter. I think you give this guy 200 more at bats and he will be down to .235

 

[DanTown]

He doesn't have to be a high OBP guy to fit in the team. First of all, the organizational approach isn't about walks. It's about finding your pitch to hit and laying off what you can't. Walks tend to come with that but they aren't a necessity. Right now he has a 4.3% walk rate and I think it's fair to imagine he'll sty around that. His K rate is at 20.0% That's elevated over what he did in the minors at 11.5% but then that's not really a surprise for a rookie. That should come down. Hypothetically, let's say he's at 4% and 11.5%. Daniel Murphy has been one of the best players in the majors at 5.0%/10.6%. There's numerous other examples of guys with similar rates who've become very good players.

I don't see any reason why you'd prefer to keep Szczur over Almora. Thus far Almora is hitting .269/.300/.403. On his career Szczur is hitting .239/.288/.367 on his career and .261/.306/.402 on the year. He's 26 so there's probably no growth left. Almora could very easily be a .280-.290 hitter with a .320-.330 OBP and supreme defense in a few years. That wont carry a team on his back 1) he'll put balls in play hitting after high OBP players which will lead to runs and 2) he doesn't have to carry a team on his shoulders because Rizzo, Contreras and Bryant all very well might be MVP candidates in their respective primes.

So it sounds like a guy with a .730 OPS? To play Almora with any sort of regularity means you're sitting Baez, Soler/Schwarber, or Heyward which simply won't happen more than a day or two a week. Also, if Heyward is less likely to opt out, it squeezes out the need for a high defensive CF.

Almora to me is in the Soler class of keep him but don't be afraid to use him to get a high value place.