Trade deadline/rumors

[beckdawg]

Almora to me is in the Soler class of keep him but don't be afraid to use him to get a high value place.

I think that's fair but I would also say they need to know what he is before you even consider trading him. It doesn't look like he'll have a ton of power based on the way he plays but the thing is even scouts get that wrong from time to time. If he's say more a 15-20 HR hitter rather than a 10-15 guy he appears to be that changing the value a lot.

All I'm saying is I don't see many scenarios where it makes sense to trade Almora right now even if you keep Fowler. He's a better player than Szczur and he's younger. His defense makes him useful off the bench and if you're using him in a PH role you probably prefer someone who's aggressive at the plate rather than someone who will sit and take a walk. So, even in a bench capacity he still holds a lot of value. And as I've mentioned before, all of the stuff I've read on him suggests he has off the charts intangibles.

One more thing about playing him, I think you underestimate Maddon. He may not play a full game every day but Maddon moves players around during a game a ton. It wouldn't shock me to see him start Schhwarber and double switch him later in a game for defense like I said. And you could realistically do it with any of the 3 OF if you had a lead because Almora can play anywhere. In that regard you limit some of the wear on guys

 

[Raskolnikov]

Keeping Almora over Szczur is one thing...keeping him over extending Fowler is another. Cubs need a table setter at the top of the lineup, a role Fowler has played very well. But a role not fitting Almora's game. As a backup OF, yeah Almora is fine...I just prefer Fowler as my regular CFer.

Do you want a guy who has been proven top 3 OBP and top 10 lead off guy for years or to try to play the wheel and go through prospects trying to fill that spot?

I never understood why they weren't interested in signing Fowler long term in the first place...a guy is performing at the top of MLB level and you want to refer me to the prospects behind him? Fowler is what you are searching for....lock him up. There is enough young bats behind him not to worry about having a 20 year old going up and down at that spot. Let those guys break into the 9 hole, in the pseudo lead off spot without pressure, but where speed helps.

Alot depends on Soler. If Heyward is going to hit like this, you might need to move him to center and pray Soler reaches the potential he flashed in playoffs. The Cubs could use him getting hot right now.

Arrieta will be fine after the all-star break. Things got a bit crazy, should be a good weekend for him and talk to some older veterans. Relax a bit.


Its going to be ok Cubs fans, just a mid season lull. When it comes time to take the division, you know Madden will have the guys energized, and this sorting out period is good for everyone. The heads were getting a little big, long season...they will rebuild momentum at some point and if Fowler/Heyward/Soler got going it will be a freight train when it gets started again.

of the young guys, Baez/Contreras/Szchur look like they are real playoff contributers. More than Cubs even need. Hell.....


The biggest problem I see...is Epstein doesn't value the middle bull pen enough...he seems to have a dart throwing approach where he is looking for washed ups and sub pars to stick at the spot.

Rich Hill...Wood...Cahill...Warren...and that list goes on.


If that strategy continues this lineup won't have the support it deserves.


I think Monterro needs to go...his defense/calling seems an issue for multiple pitchers.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So it sounds like a guy with a .730 OPS? To play Almora with any sort of regularity means you're sitting Baez, Soler/Schwarber, or Heyward which simply won't happen more than a day or two a week. Also, if Heyward is less likely to opt out, it squeezes out the need for a high defensive CF.

Almora to me is in the Soler class of keep him but don't be afraid to use him to get a high value place.

There isn't anything I don't agree with you on here. I think Almora probably is a .280 hitter but probably not a ton above .700 OPS and as such he really doesn't work with this lineup. I've looked forward to him and his defense for a long time but as an everyday player, right now, it's hard to see a fit as an everyday player.

 

[beckdawg]

I've looked forward to him and his defense for a long time but as an everyday player, right now, it's hard to see a fit as an everyday player.

I don't get that mentality. Like ok if you have Fowler Heyward and Schwarber then sure I can understand his bat isn't good enough to play over those 3. But to use his OPS as the reasoning he can't start makes little sense to me. Brett Gardner has a career OPS of .736. Leonys Martin has a career .674. Lorenzo Cain is at .754. The average CF OPS is .732 this year and presumably that's where he'd play most of his time.

Also for what it's worth, Fowler's career OPS is only .787. Almora's in AAA this season was .779. Granted PCL is gonna elevate your numbers some but I don't think .750+ is that unreasonable long term for Almora. I doubt he gets much above .320-.330 OBP but he's probably going to add some more power to his frame so a .430-.450 slugging isn't that out of the question. I mean Pedroia is the tiniest of guys and he's at .438 this year.

 

[CSF77]

You realize Almora was the first pick this front office made right? Clearly they thought he would be a fit and he's literally always been this player.

He was a HS pick. You notice the picks after were college players.

I wouldn't put too much into their first year as they made many mistakes that year.

 

[beckdawg]

He was a HS pick. You notice the picks after were college players.

I wouldn't put too much into their first year as they made many mistakes that year.

You're assuming it was a mistake which i think is frankly ridiculous. Theo and company weren't first time GM's. They knew what they were doing. They drafted Almora because they liked his skills set. To say he doesn't fit what they are trying to do is beyond silly because they are the ones who picked him.

 

[chibears55]

If Fowler doesn't pick up his 9 mil option for next year , it means he looking for 4+ yrs and probably close to 15 per.

If Epstein wasn't willing to extend after last year, not sure he would be willing to after this year for whatever reason.


I think those of you not willing to give Almora an opportunity next year should be a little more patience with him and give him a legit chance to show what he can do if given the opportunity to play everyday and get consistent AB.

They should have more then enough quality bats in the lineup to be able to carry and go with a defensive CFer and allow him to grow as a hitter on the job.




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[CSF77]

The Cubs don't need CF as long as Fowler, Heyward and Szczur are on team. As CSF77 stated well, a leopard doesn't change his spots. Almora isn't an OBP guy who takes walks. He will be part of a trade.

They have to look at it as what this line up needs. We have seen that Fowler makes this line up tick. Zobrist gave the most impact hitting after Bryant and Rizzo. Heyward seems to be having more success hitting at the bottom vs the top.

When you look at these players you have to look at them as where they fit into the line up more so than how they impact the D.

This team doesn't need a plus defender that gives little impact to the line up. If you have to bat the pitcher 8th to justify it that is a problem. And yes this happened with Russell but we are talking a plus D with a good walk ratio.

What I see this year is injuries are taking their toll this year. They have been using incomplete players to fill the voids. This team was at its strongest when Fowler was leading off and Zobrist was a RBI producer. I see it as making Contreras the starting catcher and Schwarber in LF next year just adding impact to these core players.

In view of this Almora is expendable because he is not a lead off. I do not weigh his D as a factor that out weighs his lacking. Not to mention having 2 guys like that at the same time is a detriment to run production.

 

[chibears55]

They have to look at it as what this line up needs. We have seen that Fowler makes this line up tick. Zobrist gave the most impact hitting after Bryant and Rizzo. Heyward seems to be having more success hitting at the bottom vs the top.

When you look at these players you have to look at them as where they fit into the line up more so than how they impact the D.

This team doesn't need a plus defender that gives little impact to the line up. If you have to bat the pitcher 8th to justify it that is a problem. And yes this happened with Russell but we are talking a plus D with a good walk ratio.

What I see this year is injuries are taking their toll this year. They have been using incomplete players to fill the voids. This team was at its strongest when Fowler was leading off and Zobrist was a RBI producer. I see it as making Contreras the starting catcher and Schwarber in LF next year just adding impact to these core players.

In view of this Almora is expendable because he is not a lead off. I do not weigh his D as a factor that out weighs his lacking. Not to mention having 2 guys like that at the same time is a detriment to run production.

So if Fowler doesn't pick up his option or gets extended, who out there to play CF and fits the leadoff mode for them to get, that won't cost them close to or as much as extending Fowler?

Again, I think their plan is to go with Almora because of his defense and being surrounded by plus hitters and allow him to grow offensively.

I think "leadoff" hitters is overstated because their only true leadoff hitters once through the order.



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[beckdawg]

So if Fowler doesn't pick up his option or gets extended, who out there to play CF and fits the leadoff mode for them to get, that won't cost them close to or as much as extending Fowler?

Again, I think their plan is to go with Almora because of his defense and being surrounded by plus hitters and allow him to grow offensively.

I think "leadoff" hitters is overstated because their only true leadoff hitters once through the order.



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I imagine if Fowler's gone you lead off either Zobrist or Russell. Perhaps Heyward but he'd have to be hitting better. My biggest thing is I don't get how people think a team can have no minor league depth in CF above A ball and go with only 1.5(counting Heyward as a half) CF options. Typically you want at least 2 guys on your active roster who can play any one position and at least one guy in the minors. Schwarber and Soler definitely can't play CF and Szczur has been very bad when doing so according to metrics.

Ultimately if you don't like Almora's game that's fine but he's not anywhere close to the top of players who are redundant and easy trades. You would deal McKinney before Almora because where on earth his he going to play a corner OF spot in the next few years? You would probably deal Soler first. He's already making $3.6 mil and while he's got a high potential bat, playing him off the bench isn't really that viable plus he'd theoretically have more trade value than Almora. As long as Baez is around, Happ is probably redundant. Then there's the lessor names like Candelario, Vogelbach, Zagunis...etc. And all that's before even considering that the cubs organization very well may love his skill set.

I'm honestly just tired of hearing how the cubs need to trade him. People have literally been saying it for 2 years now. He's hitting .269 in his first chance at the majors. His slugging is on par with Russell. Sure he doesn't walk a ton right now and maybe he never will but do you really want a 7th or 8th hitter walking in front of a pitcher? Saying he doesn't fit into how their lineup is constructed is ignoring the fact that walks in the bottom of your order aren't as important as at the top of your order for an NL team. Runs almost always come from hits. So it's great that the cubs 1-5 hitters are among the best in the league at walking but eventually someone has to get a hit or else you leave dozens of guys on base which is part of their problem right now. And by in large hitting for average is actually a weakness this team has. Last I checked they were around league average in batting average despite being well ahead in walk rate and OBP.

Good pitching exposes low contact rate clubs. Theo specifically said before FA that they wanted to add some higher contact players and they did in Zobrist and Heyward. Almora as a hitter should be able to avoid K's and put the ball into play. Against teams who are constructed like the Mets were last year that will be important. Almora is literally the type of player the Royals built their team around both in strong defense and high contact rate. Their offense was able to get to those same pitchers the cubs had problems with.

 

[CSF77]

First of all I'm not predicting if they will or not resign Fowler. I'm saying is the season is showing that they need to make him a priority. I believe they can come together as Fowler came back on ac1 year anyways.

All it comes down to is if they are willing to commit or not the resources needed to retain.

Now if they decide to go forward with Almora in CF the line up would look like: Zobrist, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Schwarber, Russell, Heyward, Almora, pitcher. On Lefty days you would expect something else.

In that it is not bad as long as Schwarber and Contreras both have strong years.

 

[CSF77]

Still at the end of the day that line up looks stronger with Fowler leading off and pushing the rest back 1. Now I'm not saying Heyward will be a dud. I believe he will turn it around.

 

[CSF77]

I imagine if Fowler's gone you lead off either Zobrist or Russell. Perhaps Heyward but he'd have to be hitting better. My biggest thing is I don't get how people think a team can have no minor league depth in CF above A ball and go with only 1.5(counting Heyward as a half) CF options. Typically you want at least 2 guys on your active roster who can play any one position and at least one guy in the minors. Schwarber and Soler definitely can't play CF and Szczur has been very bad when doing so according to metrics.

Ultimately if you don't like Almora's game that's fine but he's not anywhere close to the top of players who are redundant and easy trades. You would deal McKinney before Almora because where on earth his he going to play a corner OF spot in the next few years? You would probably deal Soler first. He's already making $3.6 mil and while he's got a high potential bat, playing him off the bench isn't really that viable plus he'd theoretically have more trade value than Almora. As long as Baez is around, Happ is probably redundant. Then there's the lessor names like Candelario, Vogelbach, Zagunis...etc. And all that's before even considering that the cubs organization very well may love his skill set.

I'm honestly just tired of hearing how the cubs need to trade him. People have literally been saying it for 2 years now. He's hitting .269 in his first chance at the majors. His slugging is on par with Russell. Sure he doesn't walk a ton right now and maybe he never will but do you really want a 7th or 8th hitter walking in front of a pitcher? Saying he doesn't fit into how their lineup is constructed is ignoring the fact that walks in the bottom of your order aren't as important as at the top of your order for an NL team. Runs almost always come from hits. So it's great that the cubs 1-5 hitters are among the best in the league at walking but eventually someone has to get a hit or else you leave dozens of guys on base which is part of their problem right now. And by in large hitting for average is actually a weakness this team has. Last I checked they were around league average in batting average despite being well ahead in walk rate and OBP.

Good pitching exposes low contact rate clubs. Theo specifically said before FA that they wanted to add some higher contact players and they did in Zobrist and Heyward. Almora as a hitter should be able to avoid K's and put the ball into play. Against teams who are constructed like the Mets were last year that will be important. Almora is literally the type of player the Royals built their team around both in strong defense and high contact rate. Their offense was able to get to those same pitchers the cubs had problems with.

In theory if they resign Fowler and trade Almora your back up CF is Heyward with Szczur or Bryant as 3rd options. All have played CF on the major league team and is not a reach

 

[CSF77]

So if Fowler doesn't pick up his option or gets extended, who out there to play CF and fits the leadoff mode for them to get, that won't cost them close to or as much as extending Fowler?

Again, I think their plan is to go with Almora because of his defense and being surrounded by plus hitters and allow him to grow offensively.

I think "leadoff" hitters is overstated because their only true leadoff hitters once through the order.



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I believe I covered it with that line up. They would have to run a power line up after Zobrist. But all hold strong OBA's so it is really a non issue looking at it.

 

[beckdawg]

In theory if they resign Fowler and trade Almora your back up CF is Heyward with Szczur or Bryant as 3rd options. All have played CF on the major league team and is not a reach

Bryant has also played SS and they have Baez and Zobrist. Why not trade Russell too while we're at it? It comes down to this, you think Almora is a poor hitter which I think is rather absurd given he's 22 and not even playing poorly but whatever, everyone is welcome to their opinion. But no team in their right mind would keep Szczur over Almora. It's not even close. And all of this is predicated on the idea that the cubs can re-sign Fowler which isn't a give me. If he comes back and plays strong in the second half you very realistically could be talking about $20 mil/season on him when he opts out. Cubs essentially said they spent any money they planed to use this coming offseason in the past one. I mean I'm sure they will make some minor additions but I strongly doubt they have $20 mil just burning a hole in their pocket. And more to the point at hand, if Almora wasn't part of the team's long term plan then why would you sign Fowler for what amounts to a 1 year deal? Everything about the moves they've made suggests they were buying time for him to mature past AAA.

 

[beckdawg]

Last thing I'll say on Almora is this. Last year Kevin Kiermaier hit .263/.298/.420 and was a 5.5 fWAR player in CF because he was +42 DRS and 30.0 UZR(40.7 UZR/150) in 1174.2 Innings. Right now Almora is hitting .282/.311/.465 with 3 DRS and an UZR of 3.2(67.8 UZR/150) in 139.0 all around the OF. Now I have no doubts that is going to come down some given time but it's obvious to anyone who watches Almora that he's a fantastic defensive player and thus far he's easily been a better hitter than Kiermaier. That gives him a shot to be one of the 5 best CF in baseball in time.

 

[CSF77]

Bryant has also played SS and they have Baez and Zobrist. Why not trade Russell too while we're at it? It comes down to this, you think Almora is a poor hitter which I think is rather absurd given he's 22 and not even playing poorly but whatever, everyone is welcome to their opinion. But no team in their right mind would keep Szczur over Almora. It's not even close. And all of this is predicated on the idea that the cubs can re-sign Fowler which isn't a give me. If he comes back and plays strong in the second half you very realistically could be talking about $20 mil/season on him when he opts out. Cubs essentially said they spent any money they planed to use this coming offseason in the past one. I mean I'm sure they will make some minor additions but I strongly doubt they have $20 mil just burning a hole in their pocket. And more to the point at hand, if Almora wasn't part of the team's long term plan then why would you sign Fowler for what amounts to a 1 year deal? Everything about the moves they've made suggests they were buying time for him to mature past AAA.

Maybe. My issue with him is in his sub 5% walk rate. That puts him into the #8 hitter role.

 

[CSF77]

This year alone he is sitting on 3.3%. Near 300 AB's with 10 total. That is not getting it done. If we were talking 5% and potential to improve.

1516 total AB's he has 72. For a 4.74%. That goes into poorer lower level pitching.

I think what it will come down to is if they want to spend on Fowler or not vs them viewing Almora as option 1.

 

[beckdawg]

Apropos of nothing, I wonder if the O's would consider dealing Kevin Gausman. My initial thought would be no they are in first place in the AL East and if anything probably could use more pitching. But, they do have Dylan Bundy in their bullpen who's out of options and while Gausman has good underlying numbers(reason I was interested in him) his ERA/FIP is 4.15/4.30 and his career ERA/FIP is 4.20/3.92 over 57 starts. Other than the Rays pitchers, Drew Pomeranz and maybe him I'm not seeing much out there in the way of young starters who look even approachable. I suppose Jon Gray is out there too but I don't really see the Rockies moving him. Julio Teheran is out there too but the price seems really high on him.

Getting back to the O's, they have Hunter Harvey as their best prospect in probably A+ when he's back from injury. Their #2 prospect is Jomar Reyes who's a 50 grade and ranks lower than Candelario(Candelario was the #7 3B on mlb.com he's the #9). So, they don't have much in the way of farm system. Additionally, they are playing some combo of Nolan Reimold and Joey Rickard in the OF. So, theoretically someone like Soler might interest them. Tillman has been their best pitcher and they are tied into Ubaldo thru 2017 and Gallardo thru 2017 with a 2018 option. Gausman hasn't pitched great and the final starter is pretty horrid whomever you choose.

Given their lack of a farm system, it would seem difficult for them to make any big deadline moves but I wonder if there might be a way to do a three team deal for say Rich Hill to the O's in turn for some cubs prospects with Gausman going to the cubs or something along those lines. Given the make up of the O's team they probably are less concerned with younger players so being able to win now with someone like Hill might could appeal to them. Picking up Hill and maybe a bullpen piece to replace Bundy with Bundy going into the rotation would seem to help them quite a bit. Oakland also has Ryan Dull, Sean Doolittle, Marc Rzepczynski, and Ryan Madson who would all appear to be appealing bullpen additions.

Just another thought I had and the cubs and O's have got together on a number of deals in the past few years. Obviously Strop/Arrieta but they also traded Lake to them last year for Hunter.

 

[CSF77]

Mets are looking for a arm and I'm betting they will go after Hill. Hill said he would be open to extending to a team that deals for him.

I like Smyly the most long term but I feel he gives little impact for this year. If you are looking at a impact arm now Hill should be the top starter in the market.

Should be in the other thread but he is gaining trade interest and could be a center piece player for a starter.:

Cubs outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez is getting trade attention but the Cubs aren’t eager to part with the talented 19-year-old, CSN Chicago’s David Kaplan tweets. Jimenez signed with the Cubs during their spending spree in the 2013-14 international signing market, inking a deal with a hefty $2.8MM bonus that reflected his status as the most well-regarded prospect of that 2013-14 class. Jimenez is enjoying a breakout year at A-level ball, hitting .332/.372/.527 with 10 homers over 336 plate appearances. He also was one of the stars of today’s MLB Futures Game, going 2-for-3 with a homer and a spectacular catch in the outfield. Despite Jimenez’s promise, the Cubs’ minor league depth meant that he ranked only ninth (Baseball America) and 10th (MLB.com) in preseason rankings of the top 10 prospects in Chicago’s system. The Cubs have such depth that they could explore moving Jimenez or other top prospects in midseason trades and still have one of the game’s best farm systems.