Unless Cubs win a lot right now they will be sellers

[beckdawg]

Mentioned this in the other thread i posted but people need to consider the 40 man roster. Cubs are gonna hit a roster crunch soon or they will have to leave quality players available for the rule 5 draft. I get the thought process behind selling. I really do. However, I'm more inclined to believe they try to buy players with longer control and compete a year too early. Worst case with Bellinger is you just QO him and get a draft pick. Now obviously if you're getting really great offers for him sure you consider it but cubs don't need more fringe top 100 guys. What they need is impact top 50 guys.

Maybe there's a hybrid approach out there.... idk. Like typically teams don't both buy and sell at the deadline so it would be unusual. And typically you don't include vets and prospects to get a better prospect but maybe the cubs could do this. But like i said in the other thread this is gonna be an issue soon. Cubs have arguably the deepest farm system in baseball right now. What they lack is elite prospects outside of pca. I'm talking fangraphs listing them having 52 noteworthy prospects when the MLB average is in the 30s. They had more guys ranked than CLE/LAD/TBR who are well known for their development.

Having said all this, I'm not even entirely sure what the play is myself. Clearly the cubs aren't gonna invest in middle infield with Nico/Swanson. And clearly CF is gonna be held for PCA. LF/RF also seem unlikely both with the amount of OF depth the cubs have and the fact they have spent money on Suzuki/Happ. In retrospect, the cubs probably should have been in on Sean Murphy. Doesn't seem like much out there that would suit their ideal defensive minded catcher who can hit. Doesn't seem like any of the 3B worth looking at would be traded off good teams. And 1B isn't where i'd be wanting to invest a lot to get a star personally.

So realistically, most probable place seems like pitching.

 

[wonky73]

 

[knoxville7]

Mentioned this in the other thread i posted but people need to consider the 40 man roster. Cubs are gonna hit a roster crunch soon or they will have to leave quality players available for the rule 5 draft. I get the thought process behind selling. I really do. However, I'm more inclined to believe they try to buy players with longer control and compete a year too early. Worst case with Bellinger is you just QO him and get a draft pick. Now obviously if you're getting really great offers for him sure you consider it but cubs don't need more fringe top 100 guys. What they need is impact top 50 guys.

Maybe there's a hybrid approach out there.... idk. Like typically teams don't both buy and sell at the deadline so it would be unusual. And typically you don't include vets and prospects to get a better prospect but maybe the cubs could do this. But like i said in the other thread this is gonna be an issue soon. Cubs have arguably the deepest farm system in baseball right now. What they lack is elite prospects outside of pca. I'm talking fangraphs listing them having 52 noteworthy prospects when the MLB average is in the 30s. They had more guys ranked than CLE/LAD/TBR who are well known for their development.

Having said all this, I'm not even entirely sure what the play is myself. Clearly the cubs aren't gonna invest in middle infield with Nico/Swanson. And clearly CF is gonna be held for PCA. LF/RF also seem unlikely both with the amount of OF depth the cubs have and the fact they have spent money on Suzuki/Happ. In retrospect, the cubs probably should have been in on Sean Murphy. Doesn't seem like much out there that would suit their ideal defensive minded catcher who can hit. Doesn't seem like any of the 3B worth looking at would be traded off good teams. And 1B isn't where i'd be wanting to invest a lot to get a star personally.

So realistically, most probable place seems like pitching.

Cubs are in a unique position to do both. I think they will and should listen to offers for stroman and bellinger plus hendricks and any bullpen arms on expiring deals.

At the same time, if a starter or really good reliever with team control comes on the market, the cubs can use some of the farm depth you mentioned to acquire that guy. Not so much for this year, but for next year and any other remaining team control years that player has.

I wouldn’t mind them trading some of the minor league OF depth they have to acquire a 3B with team control. Like a real 3B, not madrigal or wisdom

 

[Castor76]

Mentioned this in the other thread i posted but people need to consider the 40 man roster. Cubs are gonna hit a roster crunch soon or they will have to leave quality players available for the rule 5 draft. I get the thought process behind selling. I really do. However, I'm more inclined to believe they try to buy players with longer control and compete a year too early. Worst case with Bellinger is you just QO him and get a draft pick. Now obviously if you're getting really great offers for him sure you consider it but cubs don't need more fringe top 100 guys. What they need is impact top 50 guys.

Maybe there's a hybrid approach out there.... idk. Like typically teams don't both buy and sell at the deadline so it would be unusual. And typically you don't include vets and prospects to get a better prospect but maybe the cubs could do this. But like i said in the other thread this is gonna be an issue soon. Cubs have arguably the deepest farm system in baseball right now. What they lack is elite prospects outside of pca. I'm talking fangraphs listing them having 52 noteworthy prospects when the MLB average is in the 30s. They had more guys ranked than CLE/LAD/TBR who are well known for their development.

Having said all this, I'm not even entirely sure what the play is myself. Clearly the cubs aren't gonna invest in middle infield with Nico/Swanson. And clearly CF is gonna be held for PCA. LF/RF also seem unlikely both with the amount of OF depth the cubs have and the fact they have spent money on Suzuki/Happ. In retrospect, the cubs probably should have been in on Sean Murphy. Doesn't seem like much out there that would suit their ideal defensive minded catcher who can hit. Doesn't seem like any of the 3B worth looking at would be traded off good teams. And 1B isn't where i'd be wanting to invest a lot to get a star personally.

So realistically, most probable place seems like pitching.

Two possible trade partners for Bellinger that could bring back a 3B is with either TB or Baltimore. Tampa has real need for improved bat and even D in CF and Baltimore could use him at 1B. Both have 3B in the minors who are at a bit of a log jam to get to the majors. Then there is always the Yankees who don't have the position players the Cubs could use quickly, but they have pitching and teams can't have too much of that.

 

[Probie2429]

I don’t think any players contenders will be offering for Stroman or Bellinger are going to need to be on the 40 man roster.

 

[TL1961]

Good content, guys. Thanks.

And @beckdawg consistently brings great stuff without any sideshow BS many of us fall into. Thanks for the good content!!

 

[beckdawg]

Good content, guys. Thanks.

And @beckdawg consistently brings great stuff without any sideshow BS many of us fall into. Thanks for the good content!!

Blame all the hours i spend playing Out of the park games. Actually "running" a team gives you different perspective. It's not perfect but has changed my perspective on a lot of things. I'm not entirely sure if it's the sole reason i am much more in favor of how cleveland/tampa use their resources or not but it had a big impact. LA doing it on a larger scale really is interesting as well. It's also an interesting debate with them because you often get the sense they could sell out more to win titles at the cost of shortening their window but i sorta like the idea they have. Playoffs feel like such a crapshoot you just sorta try to make the playoffs year after year a la the 90's braves and hope your luck is there.

 

[Probie2429]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Hoyer is secretly shopping Steele. Lefty with still some team control is highly attractive. The return would need to be enormous, but it doesn’t hurt to listen.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Mentioned this in the other thread i posted but people need to consider the 40 man roster. Cubs are gonna hit a roster crunch soon or they will have to leave quality players available for the rule 5 draft. I get the thought process behind selling. I really do. However, I'm more inclined to believe they try to buy players with longer control and compete a year too early. Worst case with Bellinger is you just QO him and get a draft pick. Now obviously if you're getting really great offers for him sure you consider it but cubs don't need more fringe top 100 guys. What they need is impact top 50 guys.

Maybe there's a hybrid approach out there.... idk. Like typically teams don't both buy and sell at the deadline so it would be unusual. And typically you don't include vets and prospects to get a better prospect but maybe the cubs could do this. But like i said in the other thread this is gonna be an issue soon. Cubs have arguably the deepest farm system in baseball right now. What they lack is elite prospects outside of pca. I'm talking fangraphs listing them having 52 noteworthy prospects when the MLB average is in the 30s. They had more guys ranked than CLE/LAD/TBR who are well known for their development.

Having said all this, I'm not even entirely sure what the play is myself. Clearly the cubs aren't gonna invest in middle infield with Nico/Swanson. And clearly CF is gonna be held for PCA. LF/RF also seem unlikely both with the amount of OF depth the cubs have and the fact they have spent money on Suzuki/Happ. In retrospect, the cubs probably should have been in on Sean Murphy. Doesn't seem like much out there that would suit their ideal defensive minded catcher who can hit. Doesn't seem like any of the 3B worth looking at would be traded off good teams. And 1B isn't where i'd be wanting to invest a lot to get a star personally.

So realistically, most probable place seems like pitching.

Basically, they need to turn this amazing depth into more high elite quality depth. So trade about 5-6 guys to get the 1-2 cost controlled prospects to compete this year and next.

 

[TL1961]

Buyers aren't interested in 3 mediocre-to-good guys for a top prospect, though.

 

[TL1961]

As far as 3rd basemen, Arenado could very well be traded. Cards would get a ton, as he has 4 more years of control. They have their top prospect playing LF and he is awful out there. He needs to play 3rd if not DH.

But they're not trading him to the Cubs and the cost would be high anyway.

 

[Castor76]

Buyers aren't interested in 3 mediocre-to-good guys for a top prospect, though.

I think the idea would essentially be primary MLB level guy, e.g. Bellinger, Hendricks, Stroman, coupled with a lower tier prospect to get a higher lever one back.

So let's say the Tampa Rays who really need an upgrade at CF and a jolt in the arm right now. Tampa has Curtis Mead at AAA right now, ranked #32 on the MLB top 100 list, but they also have #14 who is also a 3B and only about a year behind him in development. I'm no expert on trade values, but Belli and a mid level guy for Mead seems doable. Cubs get what they need in a guy who fills a hole while Tampa gets a make the push piece and someone with control afterwards.

 

[wonky73]

 

[TL1961]

I think the idea would essentially be primary MLB level guy, e.g. Bellinger, Hendricks, Stroman, coupled with a lower tier prospect to get a higher lever one back.

So let's say the Tampa Rays who really need an upgrade at CF and a jolt in the arm right now. Tampa has Curtis Mead at AAA right now, ranked #32 on the MLB top 100 list, but they also have #14 who is also a 3B and only about a year behind him in development. I'm no expert on trade values, but Belli and a mid level guy for Mead seems doable. Cubs get what they need in a guy who fills a hole while Tampa gets a make the push piece and someone with control afterwards.

Trading Bellinger and Stroman is expected. And no doubt it would be for prospects.

I guess I don’t see how that equates to the “trade 5 or 6 guys for two prospects “ proposition that was suggested.

 

[knoxville7]

As far as 3rd basemen, Arenado could very well be traded. Cards would get a ton, as he has 4 more years of control. They have their top prospect playing LF and he is awful out there. He needs to play 3rd if not DH.

But they're not trading him to the Cubs and the cost would be high anyway.

Those 4 years of control are at a pretty big number per year, correct?

I don’t see him as a good move for the cubs, not that the cards would trade him here anyways

 

[jrsamu]

Mentioned this in the other thread i posted but people need to consider the 40 man roster. Cubs are gonna hit a roster crunch soon or they will have to leave quality players available for the rule 5 draft. I get the thought process behind selling. I really do. However, I'm more inclined to believe they try to buy players with longer control and compete a year too early. Worst case with Bellinger is you just QO him and get a draft pick. Now obviously if you're getting really great offers for him sure you consider it but cubs don't need more fringe top 100 guys. What they need is impact top 50 guys.

Maybe there's a hybrid approach out there.... idk. Like typically teams don't both buy and sell at the deadline so it would be unusual. And typically you don't include vets and prospects to get a better prospect but maybe the cubs could do this. But like i said in the other thread this is gonna be an issue soon. Cubs have arguably the deepest farm system in baseball right now. What they lack is elite prospects outside of pca. I'm talking fangraphs listing them having 52 noteworthy prospects when the MLB average is in the 30s. They had more guys ranked than CLE/LAD/TBR who are well known for their development.

Having said all this, I'm not even entirely sure what the play is myself. Clearly the cubs aren't gonna invest in middle infield with Nico/Swanson. And clearly CF is gonna be held for PCA. LF/RF also seem unlikely both with the amount of OF depth the cubs have and the fact they have spent money on Suzuki/Happ. In retrospect, the cubs probably should have been in on Sean Murphy. Doesn't seem like much out there that would suit their ideal defensive minded catcher who can hit. Doesn't seem like any of the 3B worth looking at would be traded off good teams. And 1B isn't where i'd be wanting to invest a lot to get a star personally.

So realistically, most probable place seems like p

 

[jrsamu]

The Cubs path to success will be driven by the performance of the prospects, augmented by the right free agents. If you simply look at Stroman's track record, at his age, trade him for as much as you can secure this year. I would keep Bellinger through this season. If for no other reason because the lineup needs him and they'll still receive a supplemental pick. They would have to be blown away by the offer otherwise.

Hoerner and Happ struggling a year after re-upping their deals is not surprising. They and Swanson will be better next year. But all will be much better if they have a big bat behind them. That bat doesn't exist without Bellinger, and he can also play 1st base if need be.

The bullpen is way more of a patchwork this year than last, and without that, they will not make the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the Cubs hit rate on prospects and trades so far is not as high as it needs to be. At least thus far. If that doesn't improve soon, Hoyer needs to go or there needs to be another refurbishment of the scout ranks. They cannot afford to miss there.

All the prospects acquired in the Darvish deal, as a case in point, are still very young. That said, only one of them looks like he might be something. Might be. The other three aren't showing much to date.

The Reds are on the upswing. The Brewers have a formula that works and they will restock their prospect pipeline when they inevitably deal Burnes and Woodruff. The Cubs are only close because the division overall is down. They don't have the horses.

 

[TL1961]

I don’t understand why they would have to be “blown away“ by an offer for Bellinger to prefer that to a comp pick.

As I said earlier, signing him to an extension would be preferable to trading him or getting a camp pet, but it is unfortunately not realistic or at least not likely.

 

[beckdawg]

One comment i would make about bellinger is i see no real world where the cubs don't trade him unless they are legit trying to win this year. Even the thought of re-signing him to me is wrong thinking. He is gonna want to go to FA not re-sign with a team he is traded to because more teams will push his value up. So, even if the cubs do want him back you simply just take your prospects now and approach again in FA.

 

[wonky73]

Sell Taillon please