I think I'm going to change my mind on this after reading a lot of arguments for the "definitely a contender" side.
Honestly, I would say that the bears are a contender right now, and pretty much every team that did well last year is, and then there are teams that made big splashes in FA that are now in the contender convo, like the browns and maybe even the raiders with the draft coming up, maybe more because we have no clue how the draft might swing some poorer producing teams into actual superbowl contention. Also the coaching and culture changes.
I would say that more than halve of the test in the NFL should be considered contenders until they arent, especially with so many things that can make them better in the coming months.