Waldo And JNTG's Prospect Discussion Thread VOL 2

[waldo7239117]

Either has TyColv or Simpson.

Do they count? Simpson did not summer an injury so staying healthy might not be a problem. Colvin jus got hit with bad luck. I know he got Tommy John Surgery but we couldn't tell from last year. Same with Cashner.

 

[DewsSox79]

It's not about agreeing or disagreeing with anything at this point.

I don't even know his methodolgy for projecting prospects, let alone know enough it about to disagree with it.

Burgess for Prez.

Discuss

It's not really an arguement.

I'm simply asking him a question in regards to prospect projection.

He's the one closing threads etc avoiding it.

It's pretty funny actually.

Michael Burgess for prez.

Ok, for the last time.

Since you cannot grasp what I was trying to say, I will repeat one more time for you.

I said, you can try to project players by using minor league stats, and 1 year in the majors. My point is its a waste of time to try to project prospects since the so called untouchables sometimes dont work out, and some of the guys who get drafted way late become good to great MLB players. You can use those stats, sure. But what is the point when you will not know? There are too many prospects in a teams system in the MLB to sit there and project guys out based on minor league stats. I dont see what is so hard about this.

2nd, There is no one that can sit here and say that Starlin Castro is going to be great or bad based on minor league stats and 1 year in the majors.

On a side note: The thread was closed, and re done along with other threads in the Cubs and Sox forum, it wasnt for "avoiding" firstimer. so you can stop with that non sense. If you want to throw off another thread again, go for it. You will just be blocked out of the Cubs forum like you were in the Fire forum.

Feel free to ask me again the same question over and over.

 

[waldo7239117]

Twitter

 

[waldo7239117]

Twitter

 

[Captain Obvious]

Ok, for the last time.

Since you cannot grasp what I was trying to say, I will repeat one more time for you.

I said, you can try to project players by using minor league stats, and 1 year in the majors. My point is its a waste of time to try to project prospects since the so called untouchables sometimes dont work out, and some of the guys who get drafted way late become good to great MLB players. You can use those stats, sure. But what is the point when you will not know? There are too many prospects in a teams system in the MLB to sit there and project guys out based on minor league stats. I dont see what is so hard about this.

2nd, There is no one that can sit here and say that Starlin Castro is going to be great or bad based on minor league stats and 1 year in the majors.

On a side note: The thread was closed, and re done along with other threads in the Cubs and Sox forum, it wasnt for "avoiding" firstimer. so you can stop with that non sense. If you want to throw off another thread again, go for it. You will just be blocked out of the Cubs forum like you were in the Fire forum.

Feel free to ask me again the same question over and over.

1) That's not what you said at all. But whatever.

2) No one EVER said he would be great or bad.

 

[DewsSox79]

1) That's not what you said at all. But whatever.
2) No one EVER said he would be great or bad.

umm yes i did

 

[waldo7239117]

Getting back on topic... Jae Hoon did have a good season and was gona move up the chains with Lee. So they feel more comfortable. But now it will be different because of the trade. But expect Hoon to start this season for High A Daytona.

 

[DewsSox79]

1) That's not what you said at all. But whatever.

2) No one EVER said he would be great or bad.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Finally you have someone on your side, all be it someone who cannot read.

For the last time, and hopefully you guys understand. I will break it down for the dummies.

You can try to project a player by minor league stats and 1 year of major league stats. A projection is a projection, it is what it is, it IS NOT concrete.

again, To state that Castro WILL BE GREAT because of his minor league stats, and 1 year sample size in the majors is stupid.

The whole point is the fans stating that FOR SURE he will be great based on his minor league stats and 1 year in the majors.

This isnt hard firstimer, and CO.

and yes i did repeat what i said.

I would be shocked if he fails. There is nothing that says he should, so I'm curious as to what you are basing that off of.

I guess you didnt use the word great.


There is nothing that will say if he fails or succeeds, what dont you get?

He is 20. I will bet you $50 that he will repeat that shit. To think he won't is a little ridiculous, IMO.

and again I guess you didnt use the word great.

Castro's OPS: .755. 16 2B had at least 500 PA last year. 8 had a higher OPS. So he would still be top 10. Like I said. Castro ranked 4th out of 23 SS.

Oh and again you didnt say great

get my point?

great.

 

[FirstTimer]

I said, you can try to project players by using minor league stats, and 1 year in the majors.

No you didn't.

This is what you said

I am not stating that he will step back or blow for sure, I am calling out those who are stating bluntly that he will be great by using 1 year of MLB numbers to back up an arguement. Minor League numbers should not be used on trying to project out a player in the MLB IMO

My point is its a waste of time to try to project prospects since the so called untouchables sometimes dont work out, and some of the guys who get drafted way late become good to great MLB players. You can use those stats, sure. But what is the point when you will not know? There are too many prospects in a teams system in the MLB to sit there and project guys out based on minor league stats. I dont see what is so hard about this.

Ok, and then my point is how do you evaluate trades like the Garza trade? Or why even have a thread like this. Essentially by your logic The Cubs traded Sam Fuld and a bunch of nothings for Matt Garza. If we can't use what those minor leaguers have actually done stats wise how do we evaluate the win/loss on a trade or value or what we gave up in relation to what we got.

How do you evaluate potential Sox prospects? What tools do you use? I'm dead serious.and actually very interested in discussing the topic. I'm not saying we should go simply by stats but at the same time to say they should not be used is an overreach. They should be used but they also aren't the end all be all.

When you talk about the Sox minor leagues what do you discuss and how do you put value to certain prospects and what do you look for in certain guys that would make you more or less confident of them one day contributing or not at the MLB level to whatever degree. I'm genuinely interested in your criteria as I would assume that you discuss the Sox minors to a certain extent.

 

[FirstTimer]

Yeah we have a couple of interesting pacific rim guys.

The Rhee (SP) was supposed to be really good too, but then I believe he had TJ surgery.

Rhee had a rough 2010 after surgery but is still someone the organization likes.

Hung Wen Chen had a solid season. He pitched really well at AA got rocked around a bit at AAA to end the year. He's 24 so the clock is ticking a bit on him. This year could be the make or break season for him as far as his MLB prospects go.

Su-Min Jung is a really young pitcher that has pitched decently as well.

Hoon Ha though is my favorite guy I've seen. He reminds me a lot of Shin Soo Choo.

 

[DewsSox79]

No you didn't.

This is what you said




Ok, and then my point is how do you evaluate trades like the Garza trade? Or why even have a thread like this. Essentially by your logic The Cubs traded Sam Fuld and a bunch of nothings for Matt Garza. If we can't use what those minor leaguers have actually done stats wise how do we evaluate the win/loss on a trade or value or what we gave up in relation to what we got.

How do you evaluate potential Sox prospects? What tools do you use? I'm dead serious.and actually very interested in discussing the topic. I'm not saying we should go simply by stats but at the same time to say they should not be used is an overreach. They should be used but they also aren't the end all be all.

When you talk about the Sox minor leagues what do you discuss and how do you put value to certain prospects and what do you look for in certain guys that would make you more or less confident of them one day contributing or not at the MLB level to whatever degree. I'm genuinely interested in your criteria as I would assume that you discuss the Sox minors to a certain extent.

Of course I am going to evaluate and use minor league stats to judge a prospect at the current time at the current level of the minors. Not for projection purposes, but like you said, evaluating a trade. I look at prospects as chips.

 

[FirstTimer]

Of course I am going to evaluate and use minor league stats to judge a prospect at the current time at the current level of the minors. Not for projection purposes, but like you said, evaluating a trade. I look at prospects as chips.

Ok?

Then what process do you use to try and evaluate what a guy can or can't do or will or won't do at the major league level? How do you project a minor leaguer to the majors with out using his stats at all? What do you look at when saying "Player X at AA Whatever could bring this or that to the MLB level"..and what do you base that on?

I'm honestly curious about this. Like I said, I assume you're enough of a baseball fan to follow minor league prospects.

 

[Jntg4]

Ok?

Then what process do you use to try and evaluate what a guy can or can't do or will or won't do at the major league level? How do you project a minor leaguer to the majors with out using his stats at all? What do you look at when saying "Player X at AA Whatever could bring this or that to the MLB level"..and what do you base that on?

I'm honestly curious about this. Like I said, I assume you're enough of a baseball fan to follow minor league prospects.

What Dews has said this whole time is that anyone can TRY to project a prospect or first-year major leaguer, BUT it won't necessarily be accurate at all, so it is pointless to try to do so.

 

[poodski]

What Dews has said this whole time is that anyone can TRY to project a prospect or first-year major leaguer, BUT it won't necessarily be accurate at all, so it is pointless to try to do so.

Then no one should ever say anything about anyone. Predicting people is very inaccurate. Even the best professionals didn't project much right last year. Who projected the Padres to do as well as they did? Who projected the Reds to win the NLC (well I did)? Who projected the Giants to win the WS (on April 1st)?

So if its pointless why do we have a thread in the White Sox thread about an ALC Preview? Why do we have an NL Central O/U thread? Why did we have a "predictions for next season...?" thread?

Nothing will be accurate, but I don't know what it matters. Using Minor league numbers are fine for projecting a MLB player. Hell there are matrices you can enter the numbers to see what they could translate to at the MLB level.

And if you think the CHONE or PECOTA or ZiPS or Bill James isnt using Minor League numbers for players like Castro and Hayward you are crazy.

 

[FirstTimer]

What Dews has said this whole time is that anyone can TRY to project a prospect or first-year major leaguer, BUT it won't necessarily be accurate at all, so it is pointless to try to do so.

1. It's actually not what he said at all. I already showed that.

2. My question I just asked still stands. What you just said here doesn't answer it and misses the point.

3. I have no idea why you are even jumping into this. I'm trying to ask a legit question of Dews as far as how he personnally tries to project prospects to the MLB level. Maybe he has more access to things we don't as far as scouting reports, films, games, etc.

 

[FirstTimer]

Then no one should ever say anything about anyone. Predicting people is very inaccurate. Even the best professionals didn't project much right last year. Who projected the Padres to do as well as they did? Who projected the Reds to win the NLC (well I did)? Who projected the Giants to win the WS (on April 1st)?

So if its pointless why do we have a thread in the White Sox thread about an ALC Preview? Why do we have an NL Central O/U thread? Why did we have a "predictions for next season...?" thread?

Nothing will be accurate, but I don't know what it matters. Using Minor league numbers are fine for projecting a MLB player. Hell there are matrices you can enter the numbers to see what they could translate to at the MLB level.

And if you think the CHONE or PECOTA or ZiPS or Bill James isnt using Minor League numbers for players like Castro and Hayward you are crazy.

Hallelujah!

But even if Dews doesn't want to use stats I guess that's his perogative but I'd still be interested to know what methods he uses to project minor leaguers, if he even does.........ever.

 

[FirstTimer]

More on subject:

Predictions for Brett Jackson's MLB debut?

I'm thinking September call up for sure.

However if the season turns south you could be looking at a Jackson, Byrd, Colvin OF by early July.

 

[poodski]

More on subject:

Predictions for Brett Jackson's MLB debut?

I'm thinking September call up for sure.

However if the season turns south you could be looking at a Jackson, Byrd, Colvin OF by early July.

I think it really depends on what Colvin does. If Colvin continues to do well it's probably a September call up. If he sort of falls on his face then I think we might see Colvin go down in late May early June and Jackson get a shot.

Of course an injury changes things to, as does how Jackson does in the minors.

 

[Jntg4]

More on subject:

Predictions for Brett Jackson's MLB debut?

I'm thinking September call up for sure.

However if the season turns south you could be looking at a Jackson, Byrd, Colvin OF by early July.

And what happens to Soriano again?

I think Jackson will be up by July, but unfortunately it will be at Byrd or Colvin's expense.

 

[FirstTimer]

And what happens to Soriano again?

.

He either sucks or gets hurt. Basically the same story for the last 3 seasons.