Kush77
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I wanted reply 100 on this thread! :cheer:
TheStig
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houheffna wrote:
I think KG is a good comparison if you want Bosh instead of Wade, which was the original debate. If I could chose between a young KG and Wade, I would say both are equal but I would take KG hands down because of fit. Stats are important, they tell a lot of the story. Cassell really stepped up in Minny and at a late stage in his career. I would say that was the peak of his career and it quickly fell apart. Making players better doesn't necessairly mean everyone just the majority. But Spreewell was also in the twilight of his career and as I recall had a large family to feed.
I think KG is a good comparison if you want Bosh instead of Wade, which was the original debate. If I could chose between a young KG and Wade, I would say both are equal but I would take KG hands down because of fit. Stats are important, they tell a lot of the story. Cassell really stepped up in Minny and at a late stage in his career. I would say that was the peak of his career and it quickly fell apart. Making players better doesn't necessairly mean everyone just the majority. But Spreewell was also in the twilight of his career and as I recall had a large family to feed.
Shakes
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The problem is KG is so much better than Bosh that it's a distorted comparison. KG was regarded as the best player in the league for a couple of years. I think if you're going to compare to another big who was blamed for not being able to lead his team anywhere you should look at Chris Webber. That's more of a like for like comparison in terms of player ability.
fola
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Susan on over on RealGM put together this really interesting post. I looked up much of the stats and it looks like she's right on track. If nothing else, this further cements my anti Joe Johnson stance.
Kush77
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Interesting stats. It can be hit and miss though. I looked 2 guys I was curious about (KG and Malone) and I didn't do all the math but Malone might have been better. He won both of his MVPs after year nine and of corse got to the Finals. KG after year nine had two similar years with Min and of corse won the title with Boston in year 1. The last two years the injuries have clearly left him a different player. Both players did play over 25000 min in their first 9 years.
But the PER doesn't factor in defense outside of steals and blocks. In the case of Pippen, while his PER went down in Portland, he was still playing great D. And he was deferring to a lot of other scorers in Portland.
It seems to me that players dipped at year 12. I would be interested to see what age these players started to dip rather than year. Most of the guys on the list played 4 years of college ball. And in the case of Pippen, I'll use him since I'm most familiar with him, in his first 9 years he played a year and a half worth of playoff games alone. Bird played a ton as well.
If we did some more digging we could probably find some players where the drop wasn't as severe. But then again the drop in numbers isn't always bad. Doesn't mean the player has any less effect. KG's PER was probably down his first year in Boston but I'm sure Celtics fans aren't complaining.
I'll use another Bulls example in Rodman. While he might not of played 25000 min in his first 9 years but his PER with the Bulls was probably less than it was in his first 9 years. But he still gave the Bulls what they needed. He was also a 25 year old rookie so that's a different case too.
PER is hit and miss. I wouldn't be worried about Joe Johnson based on this. I wouldn't mind it if the Bulls signed him. He's not my first choice, but I think he's a good player.
Is he worth max money, that's another argument. If the main players stay put, I can see the Knicks just signing him to the max.
But the PER doesn't factor in defense outside of steals and blocks. In the case of Pippen, while his PER went down in Portland, he was still playing great D. And he was deferring to a lot of other scorers in Portland.
It seems to me that players dipped at year 12. I would be interested to see what age these players started to dip rather than year. Most of the guys on the list played 4 years of college ball. And in the case of Pippen, I'll use him since I'm most familiar with him, in his first 9 years he played a year and a half worth of playoff games alone. Bird played a ton as well.
If we did some more digging we could probably find some players where the drop wasn't as severe. But then again the drop in numbers isn't always bad. Doesn't mean the player has any less effect. KG's PER was probably down his first year in Boston but I'm sure Celtics fans aren't complaining.
I'll use another Bulls example in Rodman. While he might not of played 25000 min in his first 9 years but his PER with the Bulls was probably less than it was in his first 9 years. But he still gave the Bulls what they needed. He was also a 25 year old rookie so that's a different case too.
PER is hit and miss. I wouldn't be worried about Joe Johnson based on this. I wouldn't mind it if the Bulls signed him. He's not my first choice, but I think he's a good player.
Is he worth max money, that's another argument. If the main players stay put, I can see the Knicks just signing him to the max.
Diddy1122
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Wow as players get older they regress? I had no idea, color me stupid.
Logic states that as one gets older they start to slow down, doesn't take a boat load of time wasted on stats to figure that out. And PER I find to be rather ridiculous. I've never liked all these math geeks who try to quantify player production & floor impact with numbers. This isn't hockey or baseball, the game just doesn't lend itself easily to it.
I wouldn't mind having Joe Johnson. I think he would be a very good compliment to Rose, but our biggest need is a front court player which is why I want a Bosh, Stat, or Boozer. And honestly, the last line that Susan has there nearly tears her entire argument down. Ronnie Brewer even at his best will not come close to outproducing Johnson. Seriously, there is some rampant stupidity when it comes to sports fans out there.
Logic states that as one gets older they start to slow down, doesn't take a boat load of time wasted on stats to figure that out. And PER I find to be rather ridiculous. I've never liked all these math geeks who try to quantify player production & floor impact with numbers. This isn't hockey or baseball, the game just doesn't lend itself easily to it.
I wouldn't mind having Joe Johnson. I think he would be a very good compliment to Rose, but our biggest need is a front court player which is why I want a Bosh, Stat, or Boozer. And honestly, the last line that Susan has there nearly tears her entire argument down. Ronnie Brewer even at his best will not come close to outproducing Johnson. Seriously, there is some rampant stupidity when it comes to sports fans out there.
Dpauley23
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The thing is that I would be willing to pay Johnson about a 5/90 contract if we could spend about an 80 million dollar payroll. The thing is that Jerry will only spend about 65 million on the payroll until we make the conference finals
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