What if Fields Bombs in 2024?

[BaBaBlacksheep]

1: Blame the current OC

2: Blame the OL.

3: Blame Nagy for ruining him.

4: Blame Getsy for ruining him further.

5: Opine about how good he would have been if he had gone to anyone but the Bears.

6: Repeat.

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

If you decide to keep Fields, then recouping more future 1st round picks via trading down is a must to compensate for the risk factor in him bombing in 2024.

Hell, depending on which pick they trade, they might have enough future 1st's to draft Arch Manning in a couple years. Either way, the point remains.

Personally, I'm now back on the draft Caleb Williams bandwagon, but the alternative option of continuing to stack these future 1st round picks to build the roster is not a horrible backup option if they elect to go in the other direction. I just think it would be way too risky to pass up on drafting a QB with the #1 pick two years in a row and allow another potential CJ Stroud to walk through the door while there are still serious question marks about Justin Fields.

 

[nvanprooyen]

What if the Bears trade Fields, he goes on to have a great career elsewhere, and the Bears select a bust with their first round pick? Or turn them into a bust, which is a good chance too.

It's all speculative. Personally I think Fields is the less risky option. At a minimum he is tough, has leadership qualities, works hard, and has a shitload of physical talent. You know what you have and the arrow is pointing up. Chicago would likely chew up and spit Williams out at the first sign of adversity, and he seems like a bit of a diva.

But I understand the argument on the other side. I just think it's horribly myopic.

 

[KittiesKorner]

it's all subjective @HeHateMe @warlock

 

[PhilEBuster]

For those who advocate that the Bears should keep Fields as QB1 for the 2024-2025 season, I assume you feel JF is the guy for the foreseeable future. But, what happens if next year it's proven definitively JF isn't the guy? (I think this has already been proven, but I digress) Let's say the Bears win 5 or 6 or 7 games next year, which I think is likely. In this scenario they'll have something like a top 8 to 15 pick with a QB who isn't the guy (Fields) and would have to give up an enormous amount of draft capital to move up to the top 2 or 3 spots to draft Fields' replacement in the 2025 draft. They'd also be choosing from a much weaker QB draft class in 2025 than in 2024.

Doesn't it make more sense to move on from Fields this year, when you potentially have the first or second pick in the draft and have the chance to choose between what many college experts consider two A+ prospects? This also allows the Bears to keep their future draft capital intact. You also can fire Flus after this season, hire a new HC who then gets to draft his guy as QB1.

I think it's far riskier to stick with Fields, hoping he's the guy, bypassing on potentially two great QB's, rather than trading Fields this year and drafting a QB at the top of the next draft when you have the pick to do it.

The simple solution is to keep Fields and also draft QB1.

 

[Bearcub13]

For those who advocate that the Bears should keep Fields as QB1 for the 2024-2025 season, I assume you feel JF is the guy for the foreseeable future. But, what happens if next year it's proven definitively JF isn't the guy? (I think this has already been proven, but I digress) Let's say the Bears win 5 or 6 or 7 games next year, which I think is likely. In this scenario they'll have something like a top 8 to 15 pick with a QB who isn't the guy (Fields) and would have to give up an enormous amount of draft capital to move up to the top 2 or 3 spots to draft Fields' replacement in the 2025 draft. They'd also be choosing from a much weaker QB draft class in 2025 than in 2024.

Doesn't it make more sense to move on from Fields this year, when you potentially have the first or second pick in the draft and have the chance to choose between what many college experts consider two A+ prospects? This also allows the Bears to keep their future draft capital intact. You also can fire Flus after this season, hire a new HC who then gets to draft his guy as QB1.

I think it's far riskier to stick with Fields, hoping he's the guy, bypassing on potentially two great QB's, rather than trading Fields this year and drafting a QB at the top of the next draft when you have the pick to do it.

What if you show up to work sober next season, I know that is a big what if...

 

[Bearcub13]

Fields is just fine, let's work on the rest of the team. I know the Bears don't have all the wins you losers whining about Fields want, but don't worry your limp little dicks will get hard next year when the rebuild really starts to kick in. Patience is a virtue....

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

What if the Bears trade Fields, he goes on to have a great career elsewhere, and the Bears select a bust with their first round pick? Or turn them into a bust, which is a good chance too.

It's all speculative. Personally I think Fields is the less risky option. At a minimum he is tough, has leadership qualities, works hard, and has a shitload of physical talent. You know what you have and the arrow is pointing up. Chicago would likely chew up and spit Williams out at the first sign of adversity, and he seems like a bit of a diva.

But I understand the argument on the other side. I just think it's horribly myopic.

They’re both risky. That’s why Poles gets the big bucks. His career rides on this decision.

 

[KittiesKorner]

Trenches. Without them, Caleb Williams is another Grossman.

 

[Anytime23]

The same thing that happens if you trade him and the next QB bombs. You look for the next opportunity to find another.

Haven't we seen this enough to where we already knows what happens?

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

181 posts over 3 years? + controversial topic?

Whose alt is this?

Jimmy garapalo

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

1: Blame the current OC

2: Blame the OL.

3: Blame Nagy for ruining him.

4: Blame Getsy for ruining him further.

5: Opine about how good he would have been if he had gone to anyone but the Bears.

6: Repeat.

Yawn

 

[Bust]

1: Blame the current OC

2: Blame the OL.

3: Blame Nagy for ruining him.

4: Blame Getsy for ruining him further.

5: Opine about how good he would have been if he had gone to anyone but the Bears.

6: Repeat.

7: blame fumbles/turnovers. For a qb who needs his legs to be effective. Justin's fumbles will be interesting to watch. It's got to wear on him mentally. Also, being the Quarterback, he's not gonna be a part of physical scrimmages or one on one's of practicing hard contact ball protection in any phase of practice.

This is just him on week to week gameday adjustments. 5 more tryouts to go!

Go Bears!!

 

[Nelly]

What if the Bears trade Fields, he goes on to have a great career elsewhere, and the Bears select a bust with their first round pick? Or turn them into a bust, which is a good chance too.

It's all speculative. Personally I think Fields is the less risky option. At a minimum he is tough, has leadership qualities, works hard, and has a shitload of physical talent. You know what you have and the arrow is pointing up. Chicago would likely chew up and spit Williams out at the first sign of adversity, and he seems like a bit of a diva.

But I understand the argument on the other side. I just think it's horribly myopic.

Yep. There's considable risk to taking a QB #1 that I think the Fields-detractors aren't recognizing, as you laid out nicely. No one thought Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Sam Darnold and others would be as bad as they are/were yet here we are (and maybe Young as well). The reality is that the odds are heavily in favor of you getting just a decent QB, or worse, if you select Williams or Maye.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

For those who advocate that the Bears should keep Fields as QB1 for the 2024-2025 season, I assume you feel JF is the guy for the foreseeable future. But, what happens if next year it's proven definitively JF isn't the guy?

Easy.

You get out from under the contract. If you pick up his 5th year, he's still cheap for what QBs get these days and you can deal him, provided him 'bombing' entails his legs/athleticism aren't affected by major injury, and he bombs/isn't hurt with something career altering/ending. If you don't pick up his 5th year option thank him for his service and let him hit FA.

Draft a QB this year to wait in the wings, ideally a late 1st/2nd/even 3rd. Any of Penix, Ewers, McCarthy, or Daniels is fine. Its a stacked QB draft. Not coming away with one should be criminal.

 

[TexasBearfan]

does fields have the skills to make a deep playoff run? As of the Detroit game he was still bailing on clean pockets and not seeing easy wide open throws, he had JT O'Sullivan exasperated at the end of that rundown. Yes he is ridiculously talented, that's called potential. He is a potentially great QB, but he's not becoming a great QB as long as he is repeating his weaknesses...which he is.

I think drafting QB's is akin to going to the horse races, you can bet on the owner, the horse, the jockey, there are a million different stats, and you're still guessing and hoping to get lucky.

When I look at his college profile I see an avg. release time of 3.11 seconds, which isn't horrible but isn't elite, he had a pressure grade of 63.9 and what's alarming is his pressure to sack rate and it's 25%.
Fields athleticism is so elite that its enticing and you really hope he can master the passing thing.

When I look at who we could draft statistically who would be better than Fields Caleb Williams and Maye don't really jump out at me.
Williams avg release 3.16 pressure grade is 39.3 and sack rate is 23%, so at least statistically I don't see him as an improvement.
Maye is only slightly better than Williams, Penix has far better numbers than the top two and Nix has the very best pressure numbers.
CJ Stroud had very poor pressure numbers but looks amazing in the league so what does that really mean?
When I see stats of QBs who are best against the Blitz, the elites all show up, Brees/Brady/Mahomes/Rodgers so obviously beating the blitz is critical and once that skill is mastered a QB will begin to ascend to the upper echelon. Grossman couldn't beat the blitz, trubisky struggled with it and can any of you really say that Fields has made huge progress beating the blitz?

I've heard many extrapolations on here..."well if Fields would have played this many games his stats would be this".....well he hasn't played that many games because he got himself hurt, the play he got hurt on he had an open guy and pulled it down and took off running, which is his go to move. When the coaching staff tried to force him to learn to throw from the pocket everybody had an aneurism, they wouldn't let him do what he does best. They were basically saying what he does best is run and play playground ball. Lamar Jackson can throw fine from a pocket with anticipation so any running he does is a bonus.

he started the year with 3 absolutely horrible games...then he had the 2 great games followed by the first horrible Vikings game.

does anyone believe w/ different coaches he's suddenly going to be able to make the throws across the middle that he's not taking now?

 

[DrGonzo]

Yep. There's considable risk to taking a QB #1 that I think the Fields-detractors aren't recognizing, as you laid out nicely. No one thought Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Sam Darnold and others would be as bad as they are/were yet here we are (and maybe Young as well). The reality is that the odds are heavily in favor of you getting just a decent QB, or worse, if you select Williams or Maye.

Actually plenty of people had concerns about Lance and Darnold and most people thought Lance was over-drafted.

I don't recall anyone saying Wilson would be a complete bust but that's kind of the point: Williams or Maye could be the next Stroud or the next Wilson. Or, statistically more likely, the next Fields (on a rookie contract).

It's not like anyone is so committed to Fields they are certain he's better than all the top qbs in this class. It's more about how much risk you are comfortable with.

Ultimately it's about how much you trust Poles. Because in a few years he could be the next Ozzie Newsome or the next Phil Emery.

Personally I think they should take a qb either with their second first or later, give him a year to sit, and decide in another year.

 

[monkforasia]

You have a point. The Lions took Goff as a cast-off and he's done quite well behind a stout O-line and a great O-coordinator, which is exactly why I'd like to see what Fields can do with a coordinator that can play to his strengths before writing him off entirely. I'm resigned to expecting him not to be a superstar but even if he can be an overall solid/good QB then that's better than what we've had for almost all of time.

Disagree on this. I think goff will always be the one that holds the lions back from winning a Superbowl. I do agree that you need to have a good structure before investing in a QB. Panthers vs Texans case in point. It's not like this team is completely void of talent.

 

[run and shoot]

For those who advocate that the Bears should keep Fields as QB1 for the 2024-2025 season, I assume you feel JF is the guy for the foreseeable future. But, what happens if next year it's proven definitively JF isn't the guy? (I think this has already been proven, but I digress) Let's say the Bears win 5 or 6 or 7 games next year, which I think is likely. In this scenario they'll have something like a top 8 to 15 pick with a QB who isn't the guy (Fields) and would have to give up an enormous amount of draft capital to move up to the top 2 or 3 spots to draft Fields' replacement in the 2025 draft. They'd also be choosing from a much weaker QB draft class in 2025 than in 2024.

Doesn't it make more sense to move on from Fields this year, when you potentially have the first or second pick in the draft and have the chance to choose between what many college experts consider two A+ prospects? This also allows the Bears to keep their future draft capital intact. You also can fire Flus after this season, hire a new HC who then gets to draft his guy as QB1.

I think it's far riskier to stick with Fields, hoping he's the guy, bypassing on potentially two great QB's, rather than trading Fields this year and drafting a QB at the top of the next draft when you have the pick to do it.

"But, what happens if next year it's proven definitively JF isn't the guy? (I think this has already been proven, but I digress)"
-Forty-six

What's been proven is JF has put this team in position to win many times going back to last season. But the defense
lets opponents get back in the game and win (See the recent Detroit game)
What's been proven is JF has progressed as a 2nd year starter with a patchwork OL and.....without Qb development.

Long live Plank and the 46 defense

 

[Anytime23]

does fields have the skills to make a deep playoff run? As of the Detroit game he was still bailing on clean pockets and not seeing easy wide open throws, he had JT O'Sullivan exasperated at the end of that rundown. Yes he is ridiculously talented, that's called potential. He is a potentially great QB, but he's not becoming a great QB as long as he is repeating his weaknesses...which he is.

I think drafting QB's is akin to going to the horse races, you can bet on the owner, the horse, the jockey, there are a million different stats, and you're still guessing and hoping to get lucky.

When I look at his college profile I see an avg. release time of 3.11 seconds, which isn't horrible but isn't elite, he had a pressure grade of 63.9 and what's alarming is his pressure to sack rate and it's 25%.
Fields athleticism is so elite that its enticing and you really hope he can master the passing thing.

When I look at who we could draft statistically who would be better than Fields Caleb Williams and Maye don't really jump out at me.
Williams avg release 3.16 pressure grade is 39.3 and sack rate is 23%, so at least statistically I don't see him as an improvement.
Maye is only slightly better than Williams, Penix has far better numbers than the top two and Nix has the very best pressure numbers.
CJ Stroud had very poor pressure numbers but looks amazing in the league so what does that really mean?
When I see stats of QBs who are best against the Blitz, the elites all show up, Brees/Brady/Mahomes/Rodgers so obviously beating the blitz is critical and once that skill is mastered a QB will begin to ascend to the upper echelon. Grossman couldn't beat the blitz, trubisky struggled with it and can any of you really say that Fields has made huge progress beating the blitz?

I've heard many extrapolations on here..."well if Fields would have played this many games his stats would be this".....well he hasn't played that many games because he got himself hurt, the play he got hurt on he had an open guy and pulled it down and took off running, which is his go to move. When the coaching staff tried to force him to learn to throw from the pocket everybody had an aneurism, they wouldn't let him do what he does best. They were basically saying what he does best is run and play playground ball. Lamar Jackson can throw fine from a pocket with anticipation so any running he does is a bonus.

he started the year with 3 absolutely horrible games...then he had the 2 great games followed by the first horrible Vikings game.

does anyone believe w/ different coaches he's suddenly going to be able to make the throws across the middle that he's not taking now?

No one cares, dude. You thought Dante fucking Pettis was a legit starting WR in 2022.