What if Fields Bombs in 2024?

[run and shoot]

does fields have the skills to make a deep playoff run? As of the Detroit game he was still bailing on clean pockets and not seeing easy wide open throws, he had JT O'Sullivan exasperated at the end of that rundown. Yes he is ridiculously talented, that's called potential. He is a potentially great QB, but he's not becoming a great QB as long as he is repeating his weaknesses...which he is.

I think drafting QB's is akin to going to the horse races, you can bet on the owner, the horse, the jockey, there are a million different stats, and you're still guessing and hoping to get lucky.

When I look at his college profile I see an avg. release time of 3.11 seconds, which isn't horrible but isn't elite, he had a pressure grade of 63.9 and what's alarming is his pressure to sack rate and it's 25%.
Fields athleticism is so elite that its enticing and you really hope he can master the passing thing.

When I look at who we could draft statistically who would be better than Fields Caleb Williams and Maye don't really jump out at me.
Williams avg release 3.16 pressure grade is 39.3 and sack rate is 23%, so at least statistically I don't see him as an improvement.
Maye is only slightly better than Williams, Penix has far better numbers than the top two and Nix has the very best pressure numbers.
CJ Stroud had very poor pressure numbers but looks amazing in the league so what does that really mean?
When I see stats of QBs who are best against the Blitz, the elites all show up, Brees/Brady/Mahomes/Rodgers so obviously beating the blitz is critical and once that skill is mastered a QB will begin to ascend to the upper echelon. Grossman couldn't beat the blitz, trubisky struggled with it and can any of you really say that Fields has made huge progress beating the blitz?

I've heard many extrapolations on here..."well if Fields would have played this many games his stats would be this".....well he hasn't played that many games because he got himself hurt, the play he got hurt on he had an open guy and pulled it down and took off running, which is his go to move. When the coaching staff tried to force him to learn to throw from the pocket everybody had an aneurism, they wouldn't let him do what he does best. They were basically saying what he does best is run and play playground ball. Lamar Jackson can throw fine from a pocket with anticipation so any running he does is a bonus.

he started the year with 3 absolutely horrible games...then he had the 2 great games followed by the first horrible Vikings game.

does anyone believe w/ different coaches he's suddenly going to be able to make the throws across the middle that he's not taking now?

"As of the Detroit game he was still bailing on clean pockets and not seeing easy wide open throws, he had JT O'Sullivan exasperated at the end of that rundown."
-TexasBearfan


Do u have the link for JT's Detroit breakdown? I couldn't find it.

 

[TexasBearfan]

"As of the Detroit game he was still bailing on clean pockets and not seeing easy wide open throws, he had JT O'Sullivan exasperated at the end of that rundown."
-TexasBearfan


Do u have the link for JT's Detroit breakdown? I couldn't find it.

40 second mark ....how do you give a dude 20 million at the QB position who can't see/hit this...yes he got sacked but the ball should already have been gone. It's like they need to give him some meth before the game just go faster dude

 

[HearshotKDS]

Honestly I would be more worried if Fields was just mediocre enough to take team improvements and a weak schedule to 9-10 wins and a playoff game, fooling the Bears FO into signing this for 5 years:



Just to see the wheels fall off the next year when they run into a schedule full of teams with a pulse. As someone who is a fan of the the "tradedown and run it back" path, that is my biggest fear of going that route.

 

[Toast88]

Then you move on to the next OC, head coach & GM. It wouldn’t be Fields’ fault, I’m sure.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

For those who advocate that the Bears should keep Fields as QB1 for the 2024-2025 season, I assume you feel JF is the guy for the foreseeable future. But, what happens if next year it's proven definitively JF isn't the guy? (I think this has already been proven, but I digress) Let's say the Bears win 5 or 6 or 7 games next year, which I think is likely. In this scenario they'll have something like a top 8 to 15 pick with a QB who isn't the guy (Fields) and would have to give up an enormous amount of draft capital to move up to the top 2 or 3 spots to draft Fields' replacement in the 2025 draft. They'd also be choosing from a much weaker QB draft class in 2025 than in 2024.

Doesn't it make more sense to move on from Fields this year, when you potentially have the first or second pick in the draft and have the chance to choose between what many college experts consider two A+ prospects? This also allows the Bears to keep their future draft capital intact. You also can fire Flus after this season, hire a new HC who then gets to draft his guy as QB1.

I think it's far riskier to stick with Fields, hoping he's the guy, bypassing on potentially two great QB's, rather than trading Fields this year and drafting a QB at the top of the next draft when you have the pick to do it.

What if you just stop posting?

 

[TexasBearfan]

Then you move on to the next OC, head coach & GM. It wouldn’t be Fields’ fault, I’m sure.

hopefully Kevin what's his name can break the cycle, you knew as soon as you saw George picking up Poles at the airport he was falling all over himself to hire him.

 

[run and shoot]

40 second mark ....how do you give a dude 20 million at the QB position who can't see/hit this...yes he got sacked but the ball should already have been gone. It's like they need to give him some meth before the game just go faster dude

I looked at the 40minute mark. I would've took the check down. I don't like the lack of pass pro on some of these plays. JF isn't getting time to set his feet Listen to JT's wrap up @54:05

 

[TL1961]

You have a point. The Lions took Goff as a cast-off and he's done quite well behind a stout O-line and a great O-coordinator, which is exactly why I'd like to see what Fields can do with a coordinator that can play to his strengths before writing him off entirely. I'm resigned to expecting him not to be a superstar but even if he can be an overall solid/good QB then that's better than what we've had for almost all of time.

Actually, I think you could argue that the point being made is exactly the opposite of what you think.

The Rams identified Goff as pretty good but not good enough to win a Super Bowl and they were willing to give up a lot of draft capital and Goff to move to a quarterback who was capable of winning the Super Bowl with them and they did it in the first year.

Three years later, the lions are finally about to win their first division title.

They did what Bears fans are recommending, and built around the QB with the draft capital they acquired, but their ceiling is still lower than where they ideally want it to be.

When we talk about the history of Bears quarterbacks, we all know that it has been very bad and becoming the best quarterback the Bears have ever had is a very low bar. But the goal should not be to get a quarterback, who is at least better than what we normally have, the goal should be to get a quarterback you can win a championship with.

 

[TL1961]

Yep. There's considable risk to taking a QB #1 that I think the Fields-detractors aren't recognizing, as you laid out nicely. No one thought Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Sam Darnold and others would be as bad as they are/were yet here we are (and maybe Young as well). The reality is that the odds are heavily in favor of you getting just a decent QB, or worse, if you select Williams or Maye.

People who are advocating for drafting a quarterback, are not necessarily fields haters. Let’s get that out-of-the-way first.

I was thrilled that the Bears were able to draft Justin Fields, I was very happy with what they did last year, not drafting a quarterback, but giving themselves insurance, and I legitimately thought he was going to take a large leap forward in the second year under the same offensive coordinator, which obviously did not happen.

Yes, it’s a risk drafting a quarterback out of college to play in the NFL, and nothing is going to change that. But there is a huge consensus that Caleb Williams is far less risky than most, and there is not an NFL scout on planet earth whoever suggested, Zach Wilson, or Sam, Darnold, or Trey Lance was nearly as good a prospect as Caleb Williams.

 

[Bearly]

And that's exactly it, and was my point in my "argument for Fields" post. Most NFL teams have had even just average to above average quarterbacks, fairly often, and those guys usually have good, long successful careers, and are good enough to win with and on occasion because of.
You put a team around a QB like that, and you can absolutely make hay in the playoffs and give yourself a lot of cracks at going to a Superbowl and pulling one out.

The only thing you're pulling out...

Seriously, Goff was not a cast off. He was traded to give the team he came from that last bit to get them over the hump. A team that threw away their future to trade him away and accomplish the task. Lions don't make that trade without getting a competent QB in exchange. He was not cast off and claimed. He was traded.

He's become a very competent regular season QB but also becomes fallible if asked to do too much against top Ds. He's a guy that can get you to the playoffs and win a game or 2 with a stacked roster as well but he also prevented the most talented team in the league from winning the SB. NE stopped the run and he couldn't leverage that into more passing. You can't set up a guy for better success than the Rams did but even they couldn't get over the hump until they improved the position. Cousins is better but can't get over the hump either simply because he lacks special. It's happened that meh QBs have won SBs but not so much in the modern game and it's consistently rare. There's a reason.

If you have a loaded team, yes, you always have some some shot with a non elite QB but if you got an elite QB with a loaded gun, you almost always have a shot as long as the team isn't crap. Right now Fields is not extremely difficult for elite Ds to defend. I haven't given up on him due to his immense talent but he needs to throw midfield gaps and navigate the pocket better to become that guy. Fortunately he doesn't look stuck so there's genuine hope but he's not surprising anyone with his legs like he did in 2022 anymore. You defend him by pinching and covering the edges. I'll feel better when I see him hitting more crosses and posts on time. It does appear to be getting better.

 

[Nelly]

But the goal should not be to get a quarterback, who is at least better than what we normally have, the goal should be to get a quarterback you can win a championship with.

I agree, but that's proven to be incredibly hard for the vast majority of teams. You look at recent history and you've got two guys that have/will likely win the majority of the championships: Brady and now Mahomes. There's going to be a smattering of guys in between there that can win one or two here and there. Do we think Caleb Williams a guy who can insert himself into that conversation? Perhaps right along with Burrow and others? Or better yet, do we think Caleb Williams can be that guy on the Chicago Bears, the very worst franchise in the NFL at developing quarterbacks?

I suppose it's just how jaded I am with the Bears and our QB history that it feels like whoever we would pick with a top 10 pick is guaranteed bust. Fields looks the best of all of them even with his shortcomings. So if we're going to take a QB, i'd rather it be later in the 1st or the second and we look to develop the guy over the course of the next couple seasons in tandem with Fields. If Fields turns out to be the guy you want to go with then you've got a Kirk Cousins type situation and can get some draft capital back. If Fields doesn't work out then you've got a guy to work who doesn't have the weight of the world on his shoulders of trying to break the QB curse and has lot to work with (hopefully) because Poles has invested some serious draft capital into weapons (Harrison Jr/Bowers) or the defense (Turner/Latu/etc). I just like that plan better for where we're at right now.

 

[Nelly]

People who are advocating for drafting a quarterback, are not necessarily fields haters. Let’s get that out-of-the-way first.

Agreed, but there's plenty who are.

I was thrilled that the Bears were able to draft Justin Fields, I was very happy with what they did last year, not drafting a quarterback, but giving themselves insurance, and I legitimately thought he was going to take a large leap forward in the second year under the same offensive coordinator, which obviously did not happen.

Yes, it’s a risk drafting a quarterback out of college to play in the NFL, and nothing is going to change that. But there is a huge consensus that Caleb Williams is far less risky than most, and there is not an NFL scout on planet earth whoever suggested, Zach Wilson, or Sam, Darnold, or Trey Lance was nearly as good a prospect as Caleb Williams.

Even if Caleb Williams doesn't bust like those other guys, the odds are still in favor of him being nothing more than average. I wouldn't say that Lawrence is just "average" but he's posting a 92 rating this year, worse than last year. He was the last "can't miss" prospect. And while you haven't missed with him, it doesn't appear that you've got the next Tom Brady with him either. What you might have is the next Eli Manning with him. Eli won two superbowls but it wasn't on the back of his greatness: he was just good enough because the team around him was so good, namely the defense.

 

[Nelly]

Actually, I think you could argue that the point being made is exactly the opposite of what you think.

The Rams identified Goff as pretty good but not good enough to win a Super Bowl and they were willing to give up a lot of draft capital and Goff to move to a quarterback who was capable of winning the Super Bowl with them and they did it in the first year.

Chicken or the egg argument, perhaps? The Rams had a great team built already and were able to go get the QB they needed to put them over the hump. We definitely don't have a roster that could dream of being that yet cause we don't have hardly any blue-chip talent, and that's thanks in part to Ryan Pace traded away constant first round picks. Poles has only had the chance to draft one guy in the first round so far.

I guess it depends on how you want to build the team; try to find the elite QB and put pieces around him to win (Mahomes perhaps) or build a great team and then go find the QB that'll work for that team (Rams, current 9ers).

 

[TexasBearfan]

I looked at the 40minute mark. I would've took the check down. I don't like the lack of pass pro on some of these plays. JF isn't getting time to set his feet Listen to JT's wrap up @54:05

exactly, I mean people will say "oh you're a Fields hater" and I'm like no, actually I'm rooting for him to pull it together because the disciplined part of QB'ing combined with his natural tools would be like top 5 in the league but I'm not sure that vision is something that can be taught. I remember someone saying Brady got it really fast and he said to one of the other QBs even when he was a rookie "i'm going to be really good at this", it's a weird mental skill like someone who's just pheomenal at tetris or something I don't know.

I just watched the Boston high school super bowls and I thought it was really fascinating how few really good QBs there are and how hard it is. I wonder if they practiced differently, like instead of gathering in FLA and throwing passes to guys trying to get their timing down with you, practice going against the blitz the entire off season. I'm just spitballing here because I'm just hoping he can get it together but he's running out of time.

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

The bears can and should pick up his 5th year AND draft a quarterback.

 

[run and shoot]

I looked at the 40minute mark. I would've took the check down. I don't like the lack of pass pro on some of these plays. JF isn't getting time to set his feet Listen to JT's wrap up @54:05

exactly, I mean people will say "oh you're a Fields hater" and I'm like no, actually I'm rooting for him to pull it together because the disciplined part of QB'ing combined with his natural tools would be like top 5 in the league but I'm not sure that vision is something that can be taught. I remember someone saying Brady got it really fast and he said to one of the other QBs even when he was a rookie "i'm going to be really good at this", it's a weird mental skill like someone who's just pheomenal at tetris or something I don't know.

I just watched the Boston high school super bowls and I thought it was really fascinating how few really good QBs there are and how hard it is. I wonder if they practiced differently, like instead of gathering in FLA and throwing passes to guys trying to get their timing down with you, practice going against the blitz the entire off season. I'm just spitballing here because I'm just hoping he can get it together but he's running out of time

So first of all good points. I do wonder if Getsy practices blitz passing and scheming.

I've watched a lotta Bear Qb's come and go over decades. IMO.....As a 2nd year starter, JF checks all the boxes, i.e. intelligence, work ethic, talent, leadership just to name a few. However, JF has never had Qb development.
IMHO......it's this coaching staff that should be "running out of time" .......in particular Getsy.

When you get a chance look at how X-pro Qb's Chase Daniels, Tim Jenkins and O' Sullvan are all in support of JF,