What Theo needs to do in 2018

[CSF77]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/...-to-get-right-but-those-wrist-issues-persist/

 

[beckdawg]

So i'm not sure how interested I am but the Marlins are looking to cut payroll. Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa are two relievers they signed last year who disappointed. Ziegler has $9 mil left on his deal for one more year. Tazawa has $7 mil left on his. Ziegler is a big time ground ball guy who's ok walk rate wise and pretty meh k rate wise. He's also 38. Tazawa is better k rate(9ish) and walk rate(2.5 ish) and is only 32.

If Miami were to eat a little salary both might be interesting depth pieces you hope for rebounds on. And given Miami wants to slash money they probably cost next to nothing. If they pay down their salaries to say $5 mil a year they might be names worth considering in PTBNL type trades.

 

[DanTown]

These deals are never about the player "winning." Teams aren't going to buy out your arbitration years and give you a great deal on top of it. The point of these deals from the players perspective is they guarantee the player money and it allows the player to plan accordingly. If you want to argue Bryant has little motivation to re-sign long term I think that's a fair point. Perhaps even Russell is that way though as mentioned I do think an unplanned divorce in his near future cloudies his future. But Hendricks is a prototypical example of why these re-signings happen. He's been a pro for several hears now and made less than $2 million. And while that sounds like a lot of money to you or me you have to consider how much of a players income gets siphoned off by Agents and getting himself in shape to play via trainers, doctors...etc in the offseason not to mention taxes which are a killer at that tax bracket.

Hendricks is about to get $5 million in arbitration so buying out these years seems a little pointless to Kyle. Guys (especially agents) know that the younger you are, the more you make in FA. Kyle is on track to turn 31 the year he becomes a FA; buying out two years would make him 33. Considering he would have to have a huge fall to not make at least the 16 million guaranteed to him in the next three years of arbitration, the risk is simply not worth it.

Those deals that you see (Rizzo, etc) make a lot of sense when they're buying out super arb and 500K but they don't make a ton of sense in the current arbitration and FA landscape.

And with regards to Russell, it likely behooves him to wait on signing a new deal. If he does get divorced (and the allegations of abuse are even remotely close to true) then he's likely on the hook for a large share of alimony as well as child support. Those payments are usually percentage based and alimony usually starts to decline over time (especially in cases of a short marriage/relationship like this was) so Russell would likely "keep" more money by delaying his FA instead of taking and signing a contract and having that negotiated.

 

[beckdawg]

Hendricks is about to get $5 million in arbitration so buying out these years seems a little pointless to Kyle. Guys (especially agents) know that the younger you are, the more you make in FA. Kyle is on track to turn 31 the year he becomes a FA; buying out two years would make him 33. Considering he would have to have a huge fall to not make at least the 16 million guaranteed to him in the next three years of arbitration, the risk is simply not worth it.

Those deals that you see (Rizzo, etc) make a lot of sense when they're buying out super arb and 500K but they don't make a ton of sense in the current arbitration and FA landscape.

And with regards to Russell, it likely behooves him to wait on signing a new deal. If he does get divorced (and the allegations of abuse are even remotely close to true) then he's likely on the hook for a large share of alimony as well as child support. Those payments are usually percentage based and alimony usually starts to decline over time (especially in cases of a short marriage/relationship like this was) so Russell would likely "keep" more money by delaying his FA instead of taking and signing a contract and having that negotiated.

I really disagree on Hendricks. The thing is he's guaranteed nothing right now. Pitchers get hurt and lose their careers all the time. With 2 more passes through arbitration he's maybe in the range of $25-30 mil in money earned(~$2mil so far +$5 mil this time +$7 mil second +$10 mil third). And that's assuming he stays healthy. I think he realistically could get another 5 years $75 mil. That's between $45-50 mil for 2 years of FA. That's a lot of money to risk on your future and even at 5 years he'd still be young enough if healthy to have a decent FA chance after the deal is done.

Ultimately the thing about these deals is the player is at far more risk than the team. If a player suffers a career ending injury they get nothing. If their performance declines they get considerably less. It's easy to sit here and criticize deals players have made because teams sometimes get good deals on players. But from the players perspective this is guaranteed money and enough money for a life time for most people. And the thing is unless you are literally an MVP/Cy Young candidate your difference in lost money likely isn't that much.

For example, you cited Rizzo's deal. If Rizzo hadn't signed the deal he'd be going into arb 2 if i'm not mistaken. May be arb 3 if he was a super 2 guy. He's set to make $7 mil. I can't imagine he'd be making much more than $15 mil in arbitration. Next year in the final year of arb he's making $12 mil. Realistically he's maybe lost $16 mil. And chances are the $5 mil he made in 2015 would have been closer to league minimum so for the sake of argument let's say he's down $10 mil over what he may have had. That's not a big deal when you consider he guaranteed himself $36 mil. What hurts Rizzo is the two option years on the end where he'll make $16.5 mil if the team chooses. Realistically he probably gets $25 mil/year on the open market. So that portion may have cost him $20 mil. But again that's because he has played like an MVP candidate and also because he didn't get hurt. If he was just a good player not all-star level that $16.5 mil in 2020-21 isn't far off what he'd get.

As an example of this, Jon Singleton's deal doesn't seem so great right now. If you're Kris Bryant and already know you're an MVP level talent then yeah I see the point. But the thing to remember about when Rizzo signed that deal it wasn't as though he knew he would be this good. I think Russell falls into that boat a bit himself. There's a lot of reasons to like russell but his career could either go to mega-star level if he starts hitting or he could be a average MLB short stop with good defense. It's easy for people on the sideline to say they should bet on themselves. It's entirely another when a team is offering you tens of millions of dollars and in some cases hundreds of millions.

 

[beckdawg]

Also one last thing I forgot with reference to agents like Boras. The thing to remember there is agents only get paid when the player does as they get a percentage of his earnings. So, there is also incentive for agents to push players toward deals. Agents don't tend to be dumb. If they have a winning hand like Bryant then sure they are going to milk a team for all they are worth. But if you have a player who has talent but hasn't proven to be an elite level player, that's a gamble that they often aren't going to take. I think this is especially true with pitchers. For all the bluster about Boras taking Strasburg to FA he didn't. And there's any number of pitchers on great team friendly deals because they signed early. But there's also deals that once appeared team friendly and may not be any longer(see Julio Teheran). And yeah Teheran's deal isn't *that* bad for Atlanta but that's because teams hold most of the power in negotiations because arbitration favors them so much. Even when they "lose" deals they don't lose hard.

 

[DanTown]

I really disagree on Hendricks. The thing is he's guaranteed nothing right now. Pitchers get hurt and lose their careers all the time. With 2 more passes through arbitration he's maybe in the range of $25-30 mil in money earned(~$2mil so far +$5 mil this time +$7 mil second +$10 mil third). And that's assuming he stays healthy. I think he realistically could get another 5 years $75 mil. That's between $45-50 mil for 2 years of FA. That's a lot of money to risk on your future and even at 5 years he'd still be young enough if healthy to have a decent FA chance after the deal is done.

Ultimately the thing about these deals is the player is at far more risk than the team. If a player suffers a career ending injury they get nothing. If their performance declines they get considerably less. It's easy to sit here and criticize deals players have made because teams sometimes get good deals on players. But from the players perspective this is guaranteed money and enough money for a life time for most people. And the thing is unless you are literally an MVP/Cy Young candidate your difference in lost money likely isn't that much.

For example, you cited Rizzo's deal. If Rizzo hadn't signed the deal he'd be going into arb 2 if i'm not mistaken. May be arb 3 if he was a super 2 guy. He's set to make $7 mil. I can't imagine he'd be making much more than $15 mil in arbitration. Next year in the final year of arb he's making $12 mil. Realistically he's maybe lost $16 mil. And chances are the $5 mil he made in 2015 would have been closer to league minimum so for the sake of argument let's say he's down $10 mil over what he may have had. That's not a big deal when you consider he guaranteed himself $36 mil. What hurts Rizzo is the two option years on the end where he'll make $16.5 mil if the team chooses. Realistically he probably gets $25 mil/year on the open market. So that portion may have cost him $20 mil. But again that's because he has played like an MVP candidate and also because he didn't get hurt. If he was just a good player not all-star level that $16.5 mil in 2020-21 isn't far off what he'd get.

As an example of this, Jon Singleton's deal doesn't seem so great right now. If you're Kris Bryant and already know you're an MVP level talent then yeah I see the point. But the thing to remember about when Rizzo signed that deal it wasn't as though he knew he would be this good. I think Russell falls into that boat a bit himself. There's a lot of reasons to like russell but his career could either go to mega-star level if he starts hitting or he could be a average MLB short stop with good defense. It's easy for people on the sideline to say they should bet on themselves. It's entirely another when a team is offering you tens of millions of dollars and in some cases hundreds of millions.

Players signed those long term deals and watched the FA years they paid for end up being far more valuable than the player anticipated. In Rizzo and McCutchen's case, they likely didn't think that not only did they give up the money in FA years but they also gave up a ton of money they'd have made as FA in those years. You can sit here and say "take the guaranteed money" but all of these guys are already the survivors of their sport; you don't make it to the highest levels of baseball and then say "I'll take the guarantee"; you risked everything to get where you are.

Rizzo took his deal after spending half a year in AAA the year prior; if someone guarantees you $41 million at that point, it's a good risk. But Hendricks is past that point in his career. He's three years from the bank and with arbitration, he will make good money almost no matter what. The closer you get to your FA time, the more costly it is to buy out your FA. Even if the Cubs offered Hendricks 5/75, why should he take it if he is almost guaranteed to make that short of colossal arm failure? And even if he has arm failure, he's likely to still make 25 million in his life.

Tyson Ross just signed for 1/6 AFTER having surgery and not pitching for an entire year; I just don't buy that you have to protect against risk if you're a pitcher like Hendricks. And I doubt they think that way.

 

[beckdawg]

Tyson Ross just signed for 1/6 AFTER having surgery and not pitching for an entire year; I just don't buy that you have to protect against risk if you're a pitcher like Hendricks. And I doubt they think that way.

Rationalize it however you want but Strasburg is every bit the pitcher Hendricks was and he signed a long term extension. And he was a Boras client. So it's still happening.

 

[brett05]

So i'm not sure how interested I am but the Marlins are looking to cut payroll. Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa are two relievers they signed last year who disappointed. Ziegler has $9 mil left on his deal for one more year. Tazawa has $7 mil left on his. Ziegler is a big time ground ball guy who's ok walk rate wise and pretty meh k rate wise. He's also 38. Tazawa is better k rate(9ish) and walk rate(2.5 ish) and is only 32.

If Miami were to eat a little salary both might be interesting depth pieces you hope for rebounds on. And given Miami wants to slash money they probably cost next to nothing. If they pay down their salaries to say $5 mil a year they might be names worth considering in PTBNL type trades.

If the Cubs eat all of it, then yeah, PTBNL. If the Marlins eat any, the cost to the Cubs goes up

 

[anotheridiot]

Well, whatever hand issue Kyle had over the summer with his hand should give him some incentive to take a bridge deal.

But then again, the way Jakes career started, you would think he would also have that incentive.

 

[beckdawg]

If the Cubs eat all of it, then yeah, PTBNL. If the Marlins eat any, the cost to the Cubs goes up

Doubt it. Miami wants to shed $50 mil in payroll. They don't have a lot of options to do that other than trading Stanton and even then they still need to shed about $25 mil. Think they will be selling guys cheap.

 

[DanTown]

Rationalize it however you want but Strasburg is every bit the pitcher Hendricks was and he signed a long term extension. And he was a Boras client. So it's still happening.

Strasburg got 7/175 with two opt outs and that was after his TJ surgery that puts him in FA at age 31 If he wants to get a long term deal. That’s not comparable to saying Kyle should take a deal that doesn’t get him a chance to be a FA at a prime age.

 

[CSF77]

Mooney. Epstein characterized left-hander Mike Montgomery as someone who will likely stretch out as a starter in Spring Training but “probably start the year in the bullpen” barring spring injuries. “And then at the end of the regular season, when you look up, he’ll have somewhere between 10 and 20 starts. And you’ll say: ‘Wow, Mike Montgomery was really valuable this year,'” said Epstein. As for splurging on the free-agent market, Epstein was non-committal when discussing a pursuit of Yu Darvish or a reunion with Jake Arrieta. “…I wouldn’t rule it out completely, and I wouldn’t rule it in,” said Epstein of pursuing a high-priced free-agent pitcher. “I would just say it’s not our preferred method.”

 

[brett05]

Doubt it. Miami wants to shed $50 mil in payroll. They don't have a lot of options to do that other than trading Stanton and even then they still need to shed about $25 mil. Think they will be selling guys cheap.

Oh I agree, which is why you get a PTBNL if the Cubs take on all the salary.

 

[CSF77]

I doubt that Theo goes that direction. In theory they could but I believe the line up changes very little

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Oh I agree, which is why you get a PTBNL if the Cubs take on all the salary.

When you break the deal down it's nowhere near as bad as people make it out to be. Right now if he's dealt this offseason it's a 11/$285 mil contract. So you need approximately 36 WAR to make that deal a break even proposition. Let's say you figure he has 6 years in his 28-33 year old season averaging 5.5 WAR or above. That's 33 WAR right there and his last 5 years if he averaged 2 WAR there would be surplus value. That's without Miami eating any money. Now maybe you're less bullish and you ask Miami to take on $5 mil per, $55 mil over the 11 years. Now he's worth a boatload. Probably 3 top ten prospects at least. I think that's what's going to happen.

 

[beckdawg]

Oh I agree, which is why you get a PTBNL if the Cubs take on all the salary.

I don't think any team is going to take either reliever at full price even for PTBNL because given their performance last year they are pretty hefty over paid. Now I'm not saying Miami would have to buy down their contracts to what would be fair market value today based on last year's performance but you need to get a damn sight closer. $9 mil for Zeigler in particular is a pretty horrid deal. Tazawa at $7 isn't as bad. Maybe they could someone who just wants a quick and easy one year deal on a guy. But I see literally 0 way they move Zeigler without eating money and even then they aren't going to get anything for him.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cu...foundation-could-crumble-epstein-maddon-bosio

 

[CSF77]

Sounds like they want Tseng in AAA next year also. So I’m guessing a trade for Archer and signing Alex Cobb with Hickey coming in as the PC maybe the game plan.

 

[beckdawg]

Sounds like they want Tseng in AAA next year also. So I’m guessing a trade for Archer and signing Alex Cobb with Hickey coming in as the PC maybe the game plan.

I'm not sure that's the team saying that. Think it was the authors view. But even still I think it's basically what I've been saying in that the cubs probably sign some Anderson like cheap vet and have competition for the job rather than he absolutely starts in AAA no questions asked. They might still go after someone like Archer for the other open spot but Cobb + Archer feels like over kill to me.

 

[DanTown]

So if you assume the Cubs don't tender Grimm and Rondon, you're at about 120MM for the rest of the team. I consider by far the most interesting subplot of the team is what they do financially in terms of long term and if they are trying to keep the decks cleared to make an offer for a great haired RF.