What Theo needs to do in 2018

[fatbeard]

So if you assume the Cubs don't tender Grimm and Rondon, you're at about 120MM for the rest of the team. I consider by far the most interesting subplot of the team is what they do financially in terms of long term and if they are trying to keep the decks cleared to make an offer for a great haired RF.

Stop.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not sure that's the team saying that. Think it was the authors view. But even still I think it's basically what I've been saying in that the cubs probably sign some Anderson like cheap vet and have competition for the job rather than he absolutely starts in AAA no questions asked. They might still go after someone like Archer for the other open spot but Cobb + Archer feels like over kill to me.

I think it would be more in line for their long term plans.

If you score Archer then you are looking Archer/Q long term as 1/2 starters. Lester would downgrade to a 3/4 with age. So at that point you are looking at Hendricks/another back of the rotation rounding out the rotation. So Cobb works if they are thinking that Hendricks is a fringe play off starter or not or if they want protection vs Lester’s eventual decline.

If they are looking at the market the following year then signing a rental makes sense.


But the whole Tseng is viewed as a top 3 Iowa guy made sense. Him Butler and Mills would be the top 3 arms there and depth.

Now I would prefer Tseng tossed in but I would get it as he was rushed and not battle tested.

 

[beckdawg]

I think it would be more in line for their long term plans.

If you score Archer then you are looking Archer/Q long term as 1/2 starters. Lester would downgrade to a 3/4 with age. So at that point you are looking at Hendricks/another back of the rotation rounding out the rotation. So Cobb works if they are thinking that Hendricks is a fringe play off starter or not or if they want protection vs Lester’s eventual decline.

If they are looking at the market the following year then signing a rental makes sense.


But the whole Tseng is viewed as a top 3 Iowa guy made sense. Him Butler and Mills would be the top 3 arms there and depth.

Now I would prefer Tseng tossed in but I would get it as he was rushed and not battle tested.

But the problem with this is you're paying a #5 starter likely $15-18 mil a year and you have 0 room in the next 3-4 years to play any young starter you have. Like if the price is right i could see them going after Archer. But in my eyes it's an either or with him/cobb. I really think they are going to look for much cheaper options for the #5 starter. There's no logical reason to spend that much money on your #5 starter when you've got larger issues in the bullpen not to mention escalating salaries of young players. As example, I think they are far more likely to sign Cashner or Martin Perez to a 1-2 year "prove it" deal.

 

[chibears55]

But the problem with this is you're paying a #5 starter likely $15-18 mil a year and you have 0 room in the next 3-4 years to play any young starter you have. Like if the price is right i could see them going after Archer. But in my eyes it's an either or with him/cobb. I really think they are going to look for much cheaper options for the #5 starter. There's no logical reason to spend that much money on your #5 starter when you've got larger issues in the bullpen not to mention escalating salaries of young players. As example, I think they are far more likely to sign Cashner or Martin Perez to a 1-2 year "prove it" deal.

If you have a rotation for the next 3-5 yrs of...

Archer 29 YO
Quintana 29 YO
Lester 34 YO
Cobb 30 YO
Hendricks 28 YO

You're not looking to have a stable full of SP ready in system soon..

Only guy youre looking to replace in next 2 yrs would be Lester..
So
They can go through a slow process of development with these kids



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[Omeletpants]

But the problem with this is you're paying a #5 starter likely $15-18 mil a year and you have 0 room in the next 3-4 years to play any young starter you have. Like if the price is right i could see them going after Archer. But in my eyes it's an either or with him/cobb. I really think they are going to look for much cheaper options for the #5 starter. There's no logical reason to spend that much money on your #5 starter when you've got larger issues in the bullpen not to mention escalating salaries of young players. As example, I think they are far more likely to sign Cashner or Martin Perez to a 1-2 year "prove it" deal.

Yes, you dont need a high powered #5 starter to win the NL Central and the #5 wont play in the playoffs. Total waste of dollars

 

[CSF77]

Honestly Lester, Archer, Q, Hendricks, Tseng makes the most sense. If they want to sign a 1 year deal to delay Tseng in AAA I would get that bit also. Scott Feldman Would be a nice returning player in this situation on a 1 year deal

 

[chibears55]

Yes, you dont need a high powered #5 starter to win the NL Central and the #5 wont play in the playoffs. Total waste of dollars

If youre ranking them by salary then Hendricks no.5..

I look at it 2 ways..
1. If youre a WS contending team why not have 5 solid starters over 4 and a ????

2. Lester only got another good year or so left in the tank, i see Cobb more as his replacement in MOR with say Archer and Quintana on top..
He may be that 4/5 guy in 2018 but will move up in rotation throughout the contract..



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[Parade_Rain]

The Dodgers are clearly ahead of the Cubs. They had better go after good pitching and not cheap out.

 

[brett05]

The Dodgers are clearly ahead of the Cubs. They had better go after good pitching and not cheap out.

We were discussing this the other day in relationship to the Window. We see the Window of dominance for the Cubs having been closed now. That doesn't mean that they won't be in the Playoffs but it means that them being "the only game in town" is over as there are quite a few talented clubs already that can hang with the Cubs and a few more teams coming along like the Brewers.

 

[Parade_Rain]

There was never any "window of dominance" over the League. What they have been able to enjoy is a window over the division. Milwaukee is nipping at their heels.

 

[brett05]

There was never any "window of dominance" over the League. What they have been able to enjoy is a window over the division. Milwaukee is nipping at their heels.

I don't know, we think there was over the NL, but the league caught up right quick.

 

[DanTown]

I don't know, we think there was over the NL, but the league caught up right quick.

Who in their right mind thought the Dodgers were going anywhere considering their young talent + established veterans + massive resources + high quality FO? The Nationals have two top flight pitchers and two of the best hitters in the league. I just don't see how any person thought the Cubs were going to run off pennants for some massive time. Think how good and talented and how much money the Dodgers have spent the previous 5 years and they have just one pennant to speak of.

The Cubs are built to make, not win, the playoffs consistently. No one can consistently win pennants. They have to be one of the five best teams (or best in their division) to do that every year over 162 games; that's far easier to project and build a roster and team around than it is to build a roster and win 7 out of 12.

 

[DanTown]

If youre ranking them by salary then Hendricks no.5..

I look at it 2 ways..
1. If youre a WS contending team why not have 5 solid starters over 4 and a ????

2. Lester only got another good year or so left in the tank, i see Cobb more as his replacement in MOR with say Archer and Quintana on top..
He may be that 4/5 guy in 2018 but will move up in rotation throughout the contract..



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The question becomes resource allocation as you're spending 18 million on a fifth starter when

- You traded any depth you had left to get Archer
- You do not have any consistent arms in the bullpen
- Hendricks will continue to rise in cost as he goes through arbitration so in two years, you'd be spending close to $75 million on just the rotation with Lester (27.5), Cobb (18), Quintana (10.5), Hendricks (10), and Archer (7.5). That's untenable considering you don't have a ton of top shelf quality but more like second shelf quantity.

 

[fatbeard]

I don't know, we think there was over the NL, but the league caught up right quick.

...which should tell you something about your concept of a "window of dominance."

 

[DanTown]

Even if you wanted to say that the Giants had a "run of dominance" winning three WS, they didn't really have a dominant run as a team. They missed the playoffs twice, were a WC for two of those WS wins, and were only 436-374 over their five years (average of 87-79) and didn't win more than 94 games in any stretch.

I repeat this because it's important to remember

Atlanta Braves: 14 consecutive playoff appearances, 1 WS win
Miami (Florida) Marlins: 2 playoff appearances, 2 WS win

Every GM and FO wants to do what the Braves did but every fan would potentially argue the Marlins were more "successful" since they won more WS.

 

[brett05]

...which should tell you something about your concept of a "window of dominance."

Yes, it's closed. Thanks.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

There was never any "window of dominance" over the League. What they have been able to enjoy is a window over the division. Milwaukee is nipping at their heels.

I think Milwaukee takes a step back next year. Their kids aren't quite ready, Nelson is going to ab a top 5 pitcher and if they're smart they save their FA money of which they have some until next year's class. They'll be competitive but I doubt they contend.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I think Milwaukee takes a step back next year. Their kids aren't quite ready, Nelson is going to ab a top 5 pitcher and if they're smart they save their FA money of which they have some until next year's class. They'll be competitive but I doubt they contend.

They certainly surprised this year and gave the Cubs a run for their money.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

They certainly surprised this year and gave the Cubs a run for their money.

They sure could again, they're going to be around awhile but this year's team wasn't that young. They're going to need guys like Lewis Brinson, Josh Hader, Luis Ortiz and Corey Ray to start to make some noise. Hader and Brinson have already been up, but Ray took a step back this year. Ortiz looks like a MOR starter and he'll probably be up sometime in 2018. I think it's going to be hard for them to be a division threat in 2018 but in 2019 look out. Plus as I said they'll have some money to spend on that crazy FA class.

 

[DanTown]

Yes, it's closed. Thanks.

That's some great analysis

"A window that never existed nor was ever open even if you tried to argue did exist is now closed and the franchise will be impacted".

Nothing about the future of this team or what they compete against has changed. Nothing.