What Theo needs to do in 2018

[Parade_Rain]

Saw all his at bats and every ball to LF was the product of a late swing

No it wasn't. It was the product of rotation and letting the ball travel.

 

[fatbeard]

It's funny:

-Schwaber plays like shit this year and people say he is an MVP caliber player

-Happ has a breakout rookie season and everyone says he has maxed out

These are not things that random forum dumbasses are saying, they are things Sharma is hearing from people he talks to inside & around the Cubs org.

fact is that Schwarber is a wilful, stubborn one trick pony that lumbers on defense and has no place except as a DH

This, however, is a good example of what one random forum dumbass is saying.

 

[Parade_Rain]

...they are things Sharma is hearing from people he talks to inside & around the Cubs org.

Sad!

 

[CSF77]

Yes, he did but only when he swung late. Never saw him purposely drive a ball to left field

I think we tend to remember failure more than success. The thing is the shift works. I don't believe that they use it as extensively in the minors and that is why his numbers are off so bad. But what I care about is progress. He made progress after the demotion and that is what matters.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly if they trade anyone it better be Acher in return or Theo is on my hate list.

 

[Omeletpants]

I think we tend to remember failure more than success. The thing is the shift works. I don't believe that they use it as extensively in the minors and that is why his numbers are off so bad. But what I care about is progress. He made progress after the demotion and that is what matters.

Only thing that matters is how a player adjusts. For Schwarber to constantly try to pull all pitches into a shift is asinine, willful and selfish. Happ goes with the pitch which will ultimately make him the better player

 

[CSF77]

Pre ASG: .178/.300/.394
Post ASG: .253/.335/.559

It was an improvement. He is no where near near what you want in a bat first LF.

Theo knows he needs a overhaul though. He even said he got stuck into a sluggers approach vs a hitters approach. And they view him as a hitter vs a slugger.

Just the feedback thus far and his perceived value at a low I don't believe they will deal him.

I look at it this way: If you think he sucks then how is he going to pull back Archer? He wont. So you have to deal some one who has high perceived value.

Looking at Baez/Schwarber/Almora/Happ. And these are the guys that will be milled over. Baez (high value/desirable) Schwarber (Low value and not a front line more of a add in), Almora (Add in), Happ (kinda a head liner if you have solid prospect weight added in which they don't)

 

[CSF77]

But to the thread: What should he do?

1: Sign Hickey. Get that out of the way early.
2: Sign Wade Davis to a 3 year deal. Add in options if he wants more. He will turn 33 next sept so a 3 year deal puts him at 36. Then mutual options if they want to push further.

3: Trade for Archer. I really don't see another target worth dealing for. Too be honest they would be better off taking a mulligan and letting Mills and Tseng start vs dealing out Baez etc for anyone else. That said the highest valued player they should trade would be Baez. Contreras/Bryant/Rizzo/Russell off limits. Rest of roster would be up for discussion. I personally would prefer dealing Baez as he has the highest value of the guys that could be traded. Then the Rays would have less bargaining power to soak the farm system. Which has already been mopped. Seeing how the would be dealing for a SP it makes sense to trade out the SP prospect that are closest. Adbert Alzolay and Tomas Hatch would be solid prospects Oscar De La Cruz has been injured and was slated for AZL and has not tossed a pitch/wouldn't go there myself). Charcer Burks or another fringe guy as a toss in.

4: Figure out the pen (if they resign wade). They will have Wilson and Edwards returning. Add to that Strop and Maples. So they will have good stuff guys surrounding Wade Davis. What they will need is 2 inning guys to support Montgomery. So that is where the investment in F/A should go.

 

[Parade_Rain]

What would be the chances of landing both Darvish and Otani? No interest at all?

 

[dreadpirateroberts]

Unlikely to happen since they are in the same division, but one reliever I'd like to see Theo target in a trade is Reds' Raisel Iglesias. The Reds are bad and probably are going to be for awhile. He's 27. This year, statistically, his ERA, FIP, and xFIP were very good. He obviously won't be cheap.

 

[Iceman2385]

I'm gna say some things that probably are not that popular, but this what I think the Cubs should.

1. Do not re sign Wade Davis too old w injury history and probably too expensive.
2. Do not resign arrieta too old and expensive.
3. Sign a BUNCH of cheap short SP and RP w upside. Some have mentioned Nesheck, I wanted the Cubs to trade for him instead of Wilson, kept arguing for it. But yea he's an option, there's a lot of BP options out there tho.
4. To me it's time to trade ML pieces. I wouldn't trade schwarbs...that would be a grave mistake. I still see him as a potential top 10 hitter in him. To me it's trade Baez and/or Happ. I'd rather only trade 1, but if we can get good value for both that's ok w me. Personally I'm ok w Zobs and TLS at 2nd base. And then Obv signing a cheap decent back infielder., After reading thru the posts did someone say cut TLS??? why????
So who to trade, Baez/or Happ??? That's a tough one??? I'd lean towards Baez, bc we've seen a bigger sample size at the ML level, by now we should know what he is. He has a high floor w his D/baserunning/power, but with his approach his upside is limited. If someone will pay for him like he has star potential trade him. Happ I'm kinda torn, I thought he was promoted too soon, but he really impressed early on. It's very possible if we don't trade him now we missed r chance to sell high tho. For Happ you have to trust ur scouts I guess. I think Happ has more upside then Baez, but Baez is safer to keep his value up until next offseason. Soooo I dno, I guess Id lean towards trading Baez, bc I think he has slightly more trade value then Happ, and I hate r lineup construction w Baez and Heyward in it.

 

[beckdawg]

What would be the chances of landing both Darvish and Otani? No interest at all?

I'm sure even without Otani the cubs will have some interest in Darvish. Really depends on the market though. Think it's fair to say the cubs will at least check in with most FA's and have done so in the past but clearly they have prices lined out for players and they aren't going to out pay people to get the player with the possible exception of Lester but I feel like that was a one time thing where they need a guy to show they were serious and they knew the player well enough to be comfortable going there .

As for Otani, I've said this before but I think you go into the offseason thinking it would be nice to get him but assume you wont. That is to say you certainly do the prep work to try and sign him and entice him you offer him the best chance but there's really no telling what his motivation is as far as choosing a team. As an example here, I think it's likely he will want to play for a winning team but what separates the cubs from the yankees or astros in that regard? All 3 teams have strong young talent groups and are set up to win. He feasibly could choose any of them even if that's his primary motivation. And unlike FA it's not like you can just come over the top monetarily. Just such an odd situation.

As for Archer, I'm really dubious the cubs get that done. At $6.4 and $7.7 the next two years Archer really isn't making *that* much money. For example, I think Tampa is more likely to trade Odorizzi before Archer. Odorizzi doesn't really strike me as a cubs pitcher(33.7% career ground ball rate) but I could see a more likely scenario being the cubs get a starter and colome instead. For example, I could see them possibly making a play for Snell + Colome.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm gna say some things that probably are not that popular, but this what I think the Cubs should.

1. Do not re sign Wade Davis too old w injury history and probably too expensive.
2. Do not resign arrieta too old and expensive.
3. Sign a BUNCH of cheap short SP and RP w upside. Some have mentioned Nesheck, I wanted the Cubs to trade for him instead of Wilson, kept arguing for it. But yea he's an option, there's a lot of BP options out there tho.
4. To me it's time to trade ML pieces. I wouldn't trade schwarbs...that would be a grave mistake. I still see him as a potential top 10 hitter in him. To me it's trade Baez and/or Happ. I'd rather only trade 1, but if we can get good value for both that's ok w me. Personally I'm ok w Zobs and TLS at 2nd base. And then Obv signing a cheap decent back infielder., After reading thru the posts did someone say cut TLS??? why????
So who to trade, Baez/or Happ??? That's a tough one??? I'd lean towards Baez, bc we've seen a bigger sample size at the ML level, by now we should know what he is. He has a high floor w his D/baserunning/power, but with his approach his upside is limited. If someone will pay for him like he has star potential trade him. Happ I'm kinda torn, I thought he was promoted too soon, but he really impressed early on. It's very possible if we don't trade him now we missed r chance to sell high tho. For Happ you have to trust ur scouts I guess. I think Happ has more upside then Baez, but Baez is safer to keep his value up until next offseason. Soooo I dno, I guess Id lean towards trading Baez, bc I think he has slightly more trade value then Happ, and I hate r lineup construction w Baez and Heyward in it.

Think it's a bit too risky to approach the bullpen that way. Presumably in this scenario Edwards is your closer. What happens if he's ineffective? You really put yourself in a bind because the cubs bullpen was already weak this post season with davis. I honestly think you just bite the bullet with him and hope he's on a short term deal. I wouldn't totally be opposed for using the other slots on signings like Duensing was. That is to say cheap guys you think have potential but I think you really need that 9th inning role locked down because if you have to fix that midseason you're in trouble.

 

[Iceman2385]

I'm sure even without Otani the cubs will have some interest in Darvish. Really depends on the market though. Think it's fair to say the cubs will at least check in with most FA's and have done so in the past but clearly they have prices lined out for players and they aren't going to out pay people to get the player with the possible exception of Lester but I feel like that was a one time thing where they need a guy to show they were serious and they knew the player well enough to be comfortable going there .

As for Otani, I've said this before but I think you go into the offseason thinking it would be nice to get him but assume you wont. That is to say you certainly do the prep work to try and sign him and entice him you offer him the best chance but there's really no telling what his motivation is as far as choosing a team. As an example here, I think it's likely he will want to play for a winning team but what separates the cubs from the yankees or astros in that regard? All 3 teams have strong young talent groups and are set up to win. He feasibly could choose any of them even if that's his primary motivation. And unlike FA it's not like you can just come over the top monetarily. Just such an odd situation.

As for Archer, I'm really dubious the cubs get that done. At $6.4 and $7.7 the next two years Archer really isn't making *that* much money. For example, I think Tampa is more likely to trade Odorizzi before Archer. Odorizzi doesn't really strike me as a cubs pitcher(33.7% career ground ball rate) but I could see a more likely scenario being the cubs get a starter and colome instead. For example, I could see them possibly making a play for Snell + Colome.

It would be great to get Otani, but yea can't count on that Obv.

I'm curious as to what it would take to get Snell + Colome...I know the Rays have always liked Baez, seems like it would cost more then just Baez tho.

Addressing what u said about having an elite closer, I get not wanting to be in a position to have to spend resources at the deadline on a elite reliever. I really do. If we can get Davis on a 2 yr deal, I'm all for it, but he seems like he's gna get 4/70 at least, that just seems like way to risky of a signing. I like a lot of the relievers in FA too, we could go after guys like Shaw, Morrow, Nesheck, etc. If we get a couple of guys like that, plus we already have Strop, CJ and Wilson I'm confident we find a closer there.

 

[beckdawg]

It would be great to get Otani, but yea can't count on that Obv.

I'm curious as to what it would take to get Snell + Colome...I know the Rays have always liked Baez, seems like it would cost more then just Baez tho.

Addressing what u said about having an elite closer, I get not wanting to be in a position to have to spend resources at the deadline on a elite reliever. I really do. If we can get Davis on a 2 yr deal, I'm all for it, but he seems like he's gna get 4/70 at least, that just seems like way to risky of a signing. I like a lot of the relievers in FA too, we could go after guys like Shaw, Morrow, Nesheck, etc. If we get a couple of guys like that, plus we already have Strop, CJ and Wilson I'm confident we find a closer there.

On snell/colome I think Baez for Snell straight up is more than fair. In fact I'd argue the cubs are giving up too much. If you instead swap Happ for snell think that's about equal though I'm not sure after he hit 33 HRs this year how much his value may have spiked. Colome I'd say is worth something like Alzolay and one other decent prospect. Not that Tampa exactly wants that sort of offer but I think essentially Happ/Baez + Alzolay + say Caratini or Zagunis might be fair. You might move around some more lower level pieces but something close to that value strikes me as fair.

I'm not 100% sure Tampa even wants to deal Snell but the problem I have is there aren't a lot of pitchers that fit the cubs mold. They like ground ball throwers. They also like strike throwers. There's not a lot of guys with a ground ball rate > 40% and a k rate over 7.5 per 9 who are also under 30. Outside of the common names talked about there's not a ton of names who make sense. I think deGrom would really interesting if the Mets blow it up. Duffy likewise if KC blows it up. Tanaka and Darvish both fit the profile as FA guys likely to get paid. I could also see Kevin Gausman being interesting depending on cost as another former O's starter who hasn't lived up to his talents.

One thing that is actually pretty interesting is that the type of pitcher the cubs like is well represented in the FA pool. Outside of Darvish/Tanaka, Cobb also sorta fits the profile though his k rate is a little low. So, it might not even be that the cubs deal MLB players for starting pitching. Wouldn't shock me if they deal just for Colome or someone like him. I think in an ideal world if you could trade for Colome and re-sign Davis to 3 years with a mutual option 4th year that would go a long way toward solidifying the bullpen. It would still leave you likely hunting for FA pitching but as mentioned there's a couple of options there for the cubs. I think they would like any of Cobb/Darvish/Tanaka if the price were right.

 

[Iceman2385]

On snell/colome I think Baez for Snell straight up is more than fair. In fact I'd argue the cubs are giving up too much. If you instead swap Happ for snell think that's about equal though I'm not sure after he hit 33 HRs this year how much his value may have spiked. Colome I'd say is worth something like Alzolay and one other decent prospect. Not that Tampa exactly wants that sort of offer but I think essentially Happ/Baez + Alzolay + say Caratini or Zagunis might be fair. You might move around some more lower level pieces but something close to that value strikes me as fair.

I'm not 100% sure Tampa even wants to deal Snell but the problem I have is there aren't a lot of pitchers that fit the cubs mold. They like ground ball throwers. They also like strike throwers. There's not a lot of guys with a ground ball rate > 40% and a k rate over 7.5 per 9 who are also under 30. Outside of the common names talked about there's not a ton of names who make sense. I think deGrom would really interesting if the Mets blow it up. Duffy likewise if KC blows it up. Tanaka and Darvish both fit the profile as FA guys likely to get paid. I could also see Kevin Gausman being interesting depending on cost as another former O's starter who hasn't lived up to his talents.

One thing that is actually pretty interesting is that the type of pitcher the cubs like is well represented in the FA pool. Outside of Darvish/Tanaka, Cobb also sorta fits the profile though his k rate is a little low. So, it might not even be that the cubs deal MLB players for starting pitching. Wouldn't shock me if they deal just for Colome or someone like him. I think in an ideal world if you could trade for Colome and re-sign Davis to 3 years with a mutual option 4th year that would go a long way toward solidifying the bullpen. It would still leave you likely hunting for FA pitching but as mentioned there's a couple of options there for the cubs. I think they would like any of Cobb/Darvish/Tanaka if the price were right.

I think i woukd trade Baez for Snell and Colome. It's risky given Baez's high floor as a player and young pitchers bust factor, but I would do it! I like Snells K%, his BBs worry me a bit, but I like his stuff, w the eye test Snell seems like a kid that will learn command. How many years is Colome controllable? If we could get both of those guys to me that would be awesome! I would feel less pressure to get Davis if we got Colume.

I also like Duffy and Degrom and Gausmsn, what do u think it would cost to get them? I wouldn't trade a major league piece for Gausmsn, but I like him. I can't picture the Os trading us Gausman after we stole Arrieata from them tho lol.

I'm not big on Tanaka/DArvish, both of them have injury histories that scare me, I do like them as pitchers tho. It feels like DArvish will get paid really big, Tanakas might be a lil more reasonable but still a lot of money. If it means we get Otani, then I like them enough where screw it sign one of them.

 

[beckdawg]

I think i woukd trade Baez for Snell and Colome. It's risky given Baez's high floor as a player and young pitchers bust factor, but I would do it! I like Snells K%, his BBs worry me a bit, but I like his stuff, w the eye test Snell seems like a kid that will learn command. How many years is Colome controllable? If we could get both of those guys to me that would be awesome! I would feel less pressure to get Davis if we got Colume.

I also like Duffy and Degrom and Gausmsn, what do u think it would cost to get them? I wouldn't trade a major league piece for Gausmsn, but I like him. I can't picture the Os trading us Gausman after we stole Arrieata from them tho lol.

I'm not big on Tanaka/DArvish, both of them have injury histories that scare me, I do like them as pitchers tho. It feels like DArvish will get paid really big, Tanakas might be a lil more reasonable but still a lot of money. If it means we get Otani, then I like them enough where screw it sign one of them.

Colome is under team control for the next 3 years. He's hitting arbitration for the first time this winter. On deGrom I imagine he's similarly priced to Archer. So, whatever people think Archer goes for I imagine deGrom is in the same window. Duffy's a bit harder to place. He's not exactly cheap with 4 years $60 mil left for his age 29-32 seasons. And his performance wasn't as good last year though still decent. I'd say he's worth less than Quintana. I'm trying to think of a recent trade that makes sense comparing but nothing immediate comes to mind. On Gausman I think it would become about what the O's pain threshold is. This winter will be his second trip through arbitration so he's not going to be cheap salary wise. And he has a career 4.18 ERA. So, you're buying potential. Think he'd cost a decent player or two but doubt it would require a MLB player and doubt it would require the tippy-top prospects the cubs have. Perhaps a Clifton and a lessor top 30 guy might make sense. I'm not sure it suits the O's selling that low however.

 

[Iceman2385]

Colome is under team control for the next 3 years. He's hitting arbitration for the first time this winter. On deGrom I imagine he's similarly priced to Archer. So, whatever people think Archer goes for I imagine deGrom is in the same window. Duffy's a bit harder to place. He's not exactly cheap with 4 years $60 mil left for his age 29-32 seasons. And his performance wasn't as good last year though still decent. I'd say he's worth less than Quintana. I'm trying to think of a recent trade that makes sense comparing but nothing immediate comes to mind. On Gausman I think it would become about what the O's pain threshold is. This winter will be his second trip through arbitration so he's not going to be cheap salary wise. And he has a career 4.18 ERA. So, you're buying potential. Think he'd cost a decent player or two but doubt it would require a MLB player and doubt it would require the tippy-top prospects the cubs have. Perhaps a Clifton and a lessor top 30 guy might make sense. I'm not sure it suits the O's selling that low however.

I like ur ideas, seems like the Cubs have plenty of options to improve the club. Another question, do u think the Cubs should give any extensions this year?

 

[beckdawg]

I like ur ideas, seems like the Cubs have plenty of options to improve the club. Another question, do u think the Cubs should give any extensions this year?

I think Russell signs one some time soon. Presumably his wife divorces him and takes half after his personal issues earlier in the year. Would seem likely he may be looking to get some new cash. Hendricks also might sign an extension. He wasn't a high round draft pick(think 8th rounder and got $125k signing bonus) and he hasn't made big money(league min of ~500k the last 3 years). He's set up to make around $5 mil if the arb. estimates I've seen are correct. So, those two inking long term deals wouldn't shock me. I doubt Baez/Schwarber/Contreras/Happ/Almora sign long term deals just yet. There's really no incentive from a teams perspective for people pre-arbitration unless they get a sweetheart deal to do so. Plus there's some question on all of those except Contreras and their long term place in the cubs.

What will be interesting is how Bryant's arbitration case pays out. Estimates I've seen have put him in the $10 mil range. I'm certain the cubs would like to lock him up long term but supposedly they floated the idea of extensions to some guys last year and nothing really happened. And unlike Russell/Hendricks Bryant probably doesn't need the money. Being the #2 pick gave him a hefty signing bonus not to mention he made $1 mil last year. I think eventually something gets done between the cubs and Bryant but I'm not entirely sure it happens this offseason. If he wins another MVP this year or the following his extension probably gets quite a bit bigger and he's likely in a good place to do that.

Anyways that's how I see things playing out. I'm guessing something like 5 years $75 mil for Hendricks makes sense buying out 3 years of arbitration plus 2 years on the end. That would put him at 32. Russell being 24 you could probably look at something like 6 or 7 years. That would give him another nice bite at the apple. Not entirely sure on a dollar figure. maybe 6 years $60 mil or 7 years $75? On Bryant I don't even want to speculate. He could easily approach $300-350 mil over say 10 years and that might be low.

 

[Iceman2385]

I think Russell signs one some time soon. Presumably his wife divorces him and takes half after his personal issues earlier in the year. Would seem likely he may be looking to get some new cash. Hendricks also might sign an extension. He wasn't a high round draft pick(think 8th rounder and got $125k signing bonus) and he hasn't made big money(league min of ~500k the last 3 years). He's set up to make around $5 mil if the arb. estimates I've seen are correct. So, those two inking long term deals wouldn't shock me. I doubt Baez/Schwarber/Contreras/Happ/Almora sign long term deals just yet. There's really no incentive from a teams perspective for people pre-arbitration unless they get a sweetheart deal to do so. Plus there's some question on all of those except Contreras and their long term place in the cubs.

What will be interesting is how Bryant's arbitration case pays out. Estimates I've seen have put him in the $10 mil range. I'm certain the cubs would like to lock him up long term but supposedly they floated the idea of extensions to some guys last year and nothing really happened. And unlike Russell/Hendricks Bryant probably doesn't need the money. Being the #2 pick gave him a hefty signing bonus not to mention he made $1 mil last year. I think eventually something gets done between the cubs and Bryant but I'm not entirely sure it happens this offseason. If he wins another MVP this year or the following his extension probably gets quite a bit bigger and he's likely in a good place to do that.

Anyways that's how I see things playing out. I'm guessing something like 5 years $75 mil for Hendricks makes sense buying out 3 years of arbitration plus 2 years on the end. That would put him at 32. Russell being 24 you could probably look at something like 6 or 7 years. That would give him another nice bite at the apple. Not entirely sure on a dollar figure. maybe 6 years $60 mil or 7 years $75? On Bryant I don't even want to speculate. He could easily approach $300-350 mil over say 10 years and that might be low.

I like extending Hendricks and Russell. Never considered Russell's personal issues playing a factor, but it could. I would jump all over both ur proposed extensions. Could extend Baez if the FO believes he's a "core piece", but I'd rather look to trade him. Wouldnt completely shock me if the Cubs extend "Schwarbs", maybe he would take a really team friendly deal bc of his first half struggles. Seems doubtful tho.