What Theo needs to do in 2018

[CSF77]

I mean while you're not entirely wrong, he chose to come to MLB this year rather than waiting 2 years and likely getting well over $200 mil. The difference between $300k and $3 mil pales in comparison to that. So it would seem that he has other clear motivations not tied to money.

I'd be surprised if he goes to the dodgers. Their loaded with pitching ready now and it would seem odd for him to want to go there with no assurance of the chance to start in the majors especially when the prevailing thought is he will want a quick re-sign to get some of the money he's missing out on by coming early. Like wise I think that SF and LAA as west coast teams are going to have trouble given their both right up against luxury tax issues similar to the dodgers. Among the playoff teams, Houston seems possible but it also seems like a weird fit. The Yankees would seem plausible. Cleveland seems like an odd choice given the small market nature of their team. The nats are loaded with pitching and would seem odd. Boston strikes me as an odd place given their top of the rotation.

Long story short, if I had to handicap it I think the front runners would be the Yankees and Cubs. But it wouldn't shock me if he went to Seattle given their history with Japanesse players. No other team strikes me as having an obvious reason for him to go there.

If he wants to go right now then it would shock me if it was to go to a team that with out him is not a play off quality team. Add to it you want a team that can pay a mega deal.

AL East:
NYY a fav. Has a Japanese starter in hand to ease the transition.
Boston: Not a match based off of current rotation. When Price is not a part of your play off rotation there is a issue going on.
TB: LOL
Toronto: Dark Horse.
Balt: Maybe but I just don't see it.

AL Central:

Cle is the only team that makes sense but again the market is in question.
Not bothering with bottom feeders Minn again same situation as Cle. Bad market

AL West
Honestly this is a hot bed

Hou a front runner. Has built via the draft. Just won a ring and has a solid core. This maybe the front runner in general.
Angels: They are not afraid to spend. They need the pitching so a match. Question is how far away are they.
Sea: History there but honestly are they that close to contending? Are they there with him?
Tex: Honestly with Yu they have come up short. this team seems the also ran sort.
Oak: Wrong market.

NL

List is short here:

NL East:
Wash is the only one that makes sense but again a also ran team that couldn't get past a CHC team that played 1/2 a season.
Rest not a match up. NYM could be arguement but if you go to NY why settle for 2nd place.

NL Central:
Cubs/Cards/Mil only teams with the core worth looking into. Mil has a weaker market. Stl has history and CHC has all of the above. If he wants to focus on pitching only you could see something here.

NL West:
LAD honestly is the first team to break into Japan. You can not discount them and they have a Japanese SP in their core. Depth wise they are bloated but even then they went after Yu. So don't discount them.

Rest are a reach. Col can toss cash and has a core but it is a bad pitching market and honestly not attractive for a guy breaking into the league. Azl is a launching pad. Again not a great place to try to establish. SD never. SFG too far away.

So honestly it is a 2 horse race if he wants to DH. NYY and Hou. If that is not a factor then it opens up some NL spots.

 

[jooo83]

I mean while you're not entirely wrong, he chose to come to MLB this year rather than waiting 2 years and likely getting well over $200 mil. The difference between $300k and $3 mil pales in comparison to that. So it would seem that he has other clear motivations not tied to money.

I'd be surprised if he goes to the dodgers. Their loaded with pitching ready now and it would seem odd for him to want to go there with no assurance of the chance to start in the majors especially when the prevailing thought is he will want a quick re-sign to get some of the money he's missing out on by coming early. Like wise I think that SF and LAA as west coast teams are going to have trouble given their both right up against luxury tax issues similar to the dodgers. Among the playoff teams, Houston seems possible but it also seems like a weird fit. The Yankees would seem plausible. Cleveland seems like an odd choice given the small market nature of their team. The nats are loaded with pitching and would seem odd. Boston strikes me as an odd place given their top of the rotation.

Long story short, if I had to handicap it I think the front runners would be the Yankees and Cubs. But it wouldn't shock me if he went to Seattle given their history with Japanesse players. No other team strikes me as having an obvious reason for him to go there.

I get what you are saying, but you could just as easily argue that declining to wait for a much bigger pay day in 2 years is reason to take as much as possible now. But like I said, I hope I'm wrong.

 

[CSF77]

I get what you are saying, but you could just as easily argue that declining to wait for a much bigger pay day in 2 years is reason to take as much as possible now. But like I said, I hope I'm wrong.

Money is not going to be the driving factor. If it was he would have sat on his payday in Japan.

I see it as he is pushed by competition and he was at the apex of the mountain and is looking a a taller mountain to climb.

A person like this is not motivated by greed. He is movitated by challenge

 

[beckdawg]

Toronto: Dark Horse.

Don't see it. They aren't built for today and they aren't built for long term. He'd be signing to play for a middling team.

Hou a front runner. Has built via the draft. Just won a ring and has a solid core. This maybe the front runner in general.

I can understand the logic of wanting to go to a good young team but I don't know houston just strikes me as weird from his perspective. I would imagine advertising wouldn't be as good there given the south isn't particularly fond of foreigners. Like I said it just feels like a weird fit

Angels: They are not afraid to spend. They need the pitching so a match. Question is how far away are they.

Don't think you realize how drastic their money situation is. The next three years without signing anyone they are projected at $139.3M/$144.9M/$166.2M. This is a team that won 80 games. I believe if they go over the luxury tax this year that will make their 4th straight year as well. Teams aren't going to **** around with the luxury tax any more if they can help it. It's actually a pretty hard cap now given the penalties.

Sea: History there but honestly are they that close to contending? Are they there with him?

They are in better position than the Angels in my eyes. They won 78 games so essentially the same talent level. The difference is Felix has 2 years($26.86M/$27.86M) left on his deal which is going to open a lot of money up for them. And their 3 year budget looks a lot healthier at $151.5M/$132.4M/$110.2M. I wouldn't suggest Seattle is a favorite by any means but their the west coast team I feel makes the most sense if he cares about being closer to home.

LAD honestly is the first team to break into Japan. You can not discount them and they have a Japanese SP in their core. Depth wise they are bloated but even then they went after Yu. So don't discount them.

Strongly disagree here. For one thing again LA is massively over the luxury tax($214.5M/$153.8M/$136.9M). And on top of that, you have to assume Ohtani is going to want to play in the majors day one. If you're him why would you look at the dodgers for that? Look at the number of guys they have under contract as starters. You're talking about Kershaw, McCarthy(only thru 2018), Kazmir(thru 2018), Rich Hill(thru 2019), Hyun-Jin Ryu(thru 2018), Kenta Maeda(thru 2023), Julio Urias(thru 2023), Alex Wood(thru 2019), Ross Stripling(not that noteworthy but he is a starter on the 40 man), Brock Stewart(ditto stripling). And that's just the guys on their 40 man. You're also talking about Walker Buehler(#10 prospect who's at AAA), Yadier Alvarez(#45 prospect at AA), Mitchell White(LAD #7 prospect at AA), Dennis Santana(LAD #12 prospect at AA), Trevor Oaks(LAD #14 prospect AAA).

Point here being sure the dodgers would love to sign him and then possibly use those pieces else where but if you're Ohtani and you see that what guarantee do you have of even seeing the majors? They would have to move a bunch of guys to even have room on the MLB roster for him. That's why I don't see LA making much sense for Ohtani and I also don't see them making sense for Archer if he becomes available either. They literally could ditch Kazmir, Ryu, McCarthy and Maeda and still run out Kershaw, Hill, Wood, Urias(former top 10 prospect) and Buehler(current top 10 prospect) and still have a ridiculous staff.

As for the rest of the teams, St. Louis makes little sense to me from his perspective. They aren't a big market and they aren't a particularly well stocked team. Washington I still think is a weird fit. They have already dumped a ton of money into Scherzer and Strasburg. Is he really going to want to go play third fiddle to someone else? If I had to put a top 5 teams I think I'd probably put the Yankees #1, Cubs #2, Seattle #3, Houston #4(because it's a weird fit) and I guess maybe Boston #5... not really sure on that. Doesn't feel like many teams that make sense to me from his perspective.

 

[beckdawg]

Speaking of the dodgers and their absurd amount of pitching... Hyun-Jin Ryu(1 year $7.83M) and Brandon McCarthy(1 year $11.5M) would be interesting considerations for PTBNL or AAA depth type trades for the #5 starter. Presumably given their depth there and desire to cut some money I think the dodgers are likely going to shop some of these guys. Suppose you could argue for Kazmir and Maeda in this conversation too but they seem harder to move in the case of Kazmir and Maeda is under contract reasonably for awhile.

Dodgers don't really need much but some bench depth probably wouldn't hurt them.

 

[CSF77]

If they go the direction of Cobb then they should deal for Archer. Offer One of Happ/Baez or Schwarber with Tseng and Alzolay. If they need a 3rd team to send the pitching to for a 2nd bat for TB then so be it.

After that I would aim high in the pen. Both Mike Minor and Addison Reed. Lock up the 8-9 long term and let the hold overs duke it out for the scraps.

 

[beckdawg]

If they go the direction of Cobb then they should deal for Archer. Offer One of Happ/Baez or Schwarber with Tseng and Alzolay. If they need a 3rd team to send the pitching to for a 2nd bat for TB then so be it.

After that I would aim high in the pen. Both Mike Minor and Addison Reed. Lock up the 8-9 long term and let the hold overs duke it out for the scraps.

If the cubs are going to get archer it's going to be Alzolay regardless of what they do. He's effectively the Cease portion of any trade as he's likely to be back of the top 100. Happ/Baez likely both fill a similar roll to the Jiminez aspect. However, i'm not sure they would want Tseng. The assumption would be if they deal Archer that your rotation would then be Snell, Odorizzi, Faria, Brent Honeywell(probably given he was great in AAA and is a top prospect) and one of Matt Andriese and Austin Pruitt. With Yonny Chirinos, Jose De Leon, and Ryan Yarbrough at AAA they really don't need Tseng even as depth.

I'd imagine if they were to make a deal with the cubs they'd likely want Caratini. Their C's hit .241/.283/.418 last year. They have Wilson Ramos for 1 more year at $8.5 mil. Curt Casali is interesting but he's also 29. And Jesus Sucre is also 29 and not particularly good. The only C prospect they have in their top 30 is Nick Ciuffo who hit .245/.319/.385 in AA as a 22 year old which is ok but he isn't really well thought of(#25 in their system).

I imagine they might also want Zagunis. They have Steven Souza for RF but he's entering arb 1 this year. Corey Dickerson in LF is arb 2. Jake Bauers is a decent LF/1B prospect but given they likely lose Morrison via FA I'd imagine he plays 1B for them next year. Only other OF they have above A+ are Justin Williams(Corner guy AA hit .301/.364/.489) and Joe McCarthy(1B/LF hit .284/.409/.434 in AA)

Something along the lines of those 4 is likely similarly priced to the Q trade. Think you could maybe argue Eloy has higher upside than Baez/Happ and Cease also has more upside than Alzolay. But Caratini and Zagunis are worlds better than the 2 minor pieces in the Q trade and all of the players that i've listed are in AAA or the majors which would likely matter to them. Suppose you could argue that given Happ/Baez aren't Eloy that maybe they get one more half decent piece but think that framework of a deal is fair.

 

[CSF77]

I would be fine with That deal.

 

[beckdawg]

I would be fine with That deal.

I would too but I don't know if Tampa would be. That's sort of why I'm on the fence about them actually trading Archer. The thing is if you trade Archer no matter what you say you aren't competing. Snell would have to take a massive step forward for you to have a real playoff rotation and you'd also likely need Honeywell to come up and be an immediate impact. The deal I listed while comparable to the Q trade really doesn't make them better. It makes them deeper likely but I can't imagine that rotation winning a playoff series.

I'd love to be wrong if Archer actually does become available but from my perspective I think they'd just be way better off dealing Odorizzi and Colome. Honeywell if he's as good as you'd expect would easily replace Odorizzi. Colome would be tougher to replace but relievers hold the least value per dollar and thus are the easiest place for smaller market teams to skimp.

 

[CSF77]

They wouldn't get as much for Odorizzi.

If their goal is dropping 10 mil.

longoria: 13.7 mil
Ramos: 8.5 mil

Archer 6.4 mil

Odorizzi: A2 (A1 was 4.1 mil)
Álex Colomé A1


Now thinking of it the guy that you want to dump is Wilson Ramos. That is a bad deal in general. But could turn out positive value is he bounces back to his 2016 numbers.

Started the season recovering from a torn ACL.
down 3 days in July with a sore hammy


Ended with a -5.4 Off 2.2 Def and .4 WAR.

As far as a catcher is concerned they made their investment into this guy and the D is still plus but he has been banged around some. I'm not sure if Caratini is a match up with them unless they try to trade out Ramos to shed contract.

 

[anotheridiot]

I mean while you're not entirely wrong, he chose to come to MLB this year rather than waiting 2 years and likely getting well over $200 mil. The difference between $300k and $3 mil pales in comparison to that. So it would seem that he has other clear motivations not tied to money.

I'd be surprised if he goes to the dodgers. Their loaded with pitching ready now and it would seem odd for him to want to go there with no assurance of the chance to start in the majors especially when the prevailing thought is he will want a quick re-sign to get some of the money he's missing out on by coming early. Like wise I think that SF and LAA as west coast teams are going to have trouble given their both right up against luxury tax issues similar to the dodgers. Among the playoff teams, Houston seems possible but it also seems like a weird fit. The Yankees would seem plausible. Cleveland seems like an odd choice given the small market nature of their team. The nats are loaded with pitching and would seem odd. Boston strikes me as an odd place given their top of the rotation.

Long story short, if I had to handicap it I think the front runners would be the Yankees and Cubs. But it wouldn't shock me if he went to Seattle given their history with Japanesse players. No other team strikes me as having an obvious reason for him to go there.

It is reported that Ohtani makes 270 million yen now, which converts to 2.3 million US dollars. Add that to the equation of how much he will "lose" if he makes a measly amount like that here.

 

[anotheridiot]

I would be fine with That deal.

Sounds like we are taking a trip in the time machine.

Seems we had to have that pitcher in Garza that we gave up a young stud like Archer to get him.

Sounds too close to doing the same damn thing giving up Alzolay for Archer. No big deal on Zagunis or Caratini, no real place for them here, cubs wont use schwarber but would prefer a stud defender for the once a week gig.

 

[CSF77]

Sounds like we are taking a trip in the time machine.

Seems we had to have that pitcher in Garza that we gave up a young stud like Archer to get him.

Sounds too close to doing the same damn thing giving up Alzolay for Archer. No big deal on Zagunis or Caratini, no real place for them here, cubs wont use schwarber but would prefer a stud defender for the once a week gig.

Many view that Hendry made that deal to save his job

 

[chibears55]

Sounds like we are taking a trip in the time machine.

Seems we had to have that pitcher in Garza that we gave up a young stud like Archer to get him.

Sounds too close to doing the same damn thing giving up Alzolay for Archer. No big deal on Zagunis or Caratini, no real place for them here, cubs wont use schwarber but would prefer a stud defender for the once a week gig.

I dont see Alzolay going anywhere this offseason...

I think if a trade is made for a TOR type starter , A bat will be the main course (Schwarber Baez Happ ) with a couple of other prospects included....

I think Epstein set on changing the look of the lineup a little and will use 1 or 2 of those guys in a trade to get his pitching they need..

I also think if he determined to move Heyward, he will probably look mostly for relief pitchers in return...
Add more depth and competion there for ST

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

We don’t know is Alzolay will be a 1-2. Most are projecting a 3.

On the Garza deal every on flamed out except Archer and honestly Garza gave TB equal value to Archer. TB had better pitching back then in general.

So the way I feel is the Cubs are in a competitive window right now and lost their top RHSP. The F/A market is weak in TOR.

So if they had another year on Jake I believe that they sit on Alzolay but this is what I feel about the subject:

Last year at this time he was not ranked. His value jumped this year and his value is peaking. It makes sense to sell because he was a surprise vs a high ranked draft pick.

So honestly we don’t know what will happen with him. He was not ranked on talent. His performance got him ranked and if he is not able to control his change he may not make it as a starter.

With this in view if they can gain control over Archer then do it.

 

[jooo83]

Money is not going to be the driving factor. If it was he would have sat on his payday in Japan.

I see it as he is pushed by competition and he was at the apex of the mountain and is looking a a taller mountain to climb.

A person like this is not motivated by greed. He is movitated by challenge

We are not talking about a few dollars here. We are talking about 300k compared to 10 times as much. I wouldn't call that greed. Is it possible to increase the amount the cubs can offer through a trade?

 

[beckdawg]

We are not talking about a few dollars here. We are talking about 300k compared to 10 times as much. I wouldn't call that greed. Is it possible to increase the amount the cubs can offer through a trade?

No. They are capped at $300k not because of their limit but because it was the penalty for their 2015 IFA spending spree. Only way they can offer more than $300k is if for some unforeseen reason Ohtani's posting gets held up til july. In july they are allowed to invest up to $5 mil IIRC in any IFAs.

As for $300k vs $3 mil being a big deal... i mean maybe if you're talking NYC vs Chicago but let's say Houston vs Chicago. Is Houston really going to provide Ohtani with the kind of endorsement deals he could get in a city like chicago, LA or NYC? Granted Houston is a large fucking city but I find it hard to believe people in texas are going to want a Japanesse person endorsing local stuff.

Overall, I don't think $3 mil vs $300k matters. The two things that will matter from a monetary stand point are the teams long term ability to compete and sign him to an extension which most see more as a formality and the city the team plays in and it's ability to monetize him via endorsements. It's not difficult for me to envision Ohtani getting several million in local endorsements over the first year or two and presumably he's going to sign a deal with nike or someone. Nike is going to want him in a big city for obvious reasons.

If you want to argue NYY give him the best of all worlds I wouldn't argue but I think NYC also comes with it's own stigmas. Either way, I don't see money being the deciding factor for him because if it were he wouldn't be bolting NPB.

 

[CSF77]

We are not talking about a few dollars here. We are talking about 300k compared to 10 times as much. I wouldn't call that greed. Is it possible to increase the amount the cubs can offer through a trade?

Think Beck hit on one part where he can make revenue outside of his paycheck. I personally believe if it was about money then he would just wait it out and come over as others did.

He is coming early because he wants to measure himself vs the best. Let’s face it. He will get paid eventually and he knows that part. But that 300k to 3mil? Ok I get it if you are a draft kid and you want to help your family out and sort of pay them back and all. But no this is a guy that has been getting paid to play in Japan. Is 300k-3 mil US a major factor? I don’t believe it is.

I believe the major factors are if he feels that DH’ing is too much to expect then getting AB as a pitcher is a fine exchange and he can help himself win games.

He wants to win and establish himself. Playing on a small market or a team that has a history of trading out before they command large cash commitments most likely avoided.

I can see it as NYY and the Cubs. The Cubs really have not established themself as a major Japanese market and he could be the face going forward. Fukudome could have been that guy but he didn’t produce what he did in Japan. Even then he did drive up attention from the Japanese fans.

 

[anotheridiot]

No. They are capped at $300k not because of their limit but because it was the penalty for their 2015 IFA spending spree. Only way they can offer more than $300k is if for some unforeseen reason Ohtani's posting gets held up til july. In july they are allowed to invest up to $5 mil IIRC in any IFAs.

As for $300k vs $3 mil being a big deal... i mean maybe if you're talking NYC vs Chicago but let's say Houston vs Chicago. Is Houston really going to provide Ohtani with the kind of endorsement deals he could get in a city like chicago, LA or NYC? Granted Houston is a large fucking city but I find it hard to believe people in texas are going to want a Japanesse person endorsing local stuff.

Overall, I don't think $3 mil vs $300k matters. The two things that will matter from a monetary stand point are the teams long term ability to compete and sign him to an extension which most see more as a formality and the city the team plays in and it's ability to monetize him via endorsements. It's not difficult for me to envision Ohtani getting several million in local endorsements over the first year or two and presumably he's going to sign a deal with nike or someone. Nike is going to want him in a big city for obvious reasons.

If you want to argue NYY give him the best of all worlds I wouldn't argue but I think NYC also comes with it's own stigmas. Either way, I don't see money being the deciding factor for him because if it were he wouldn't be bolting NPB.

I was confused with that 300K number. I thought that was the maximum the cubs could spend to win the chance to offer him a deal, for the posting part to his team in Japan.

 

[CSF77]

20 mil is unrestricted.