What Theo needs to do in 2018

[Parade_Rain]

Heyward did improve last year. .266 BABIP to .284. He was at .300 plus. Walk rate was a 8.4 so league avg. SO 13.9 which is a all time low.

IDK maybe it takes time for his new swing to settle but there has been improvement. Just not this power that you expect from a guy his size.

Thee wasn't anything new about his swing. Whatever was new didn't show up in games.

 

[CSF77]

Thee wasn't anything new about his swing. Whatever was new didn't show up in games.

[video=youtube_share;FahBKJpzl3g]https://youtu.be/FahBKJpzl3g[/video]

His adjustment was along the same lines Rizzo went through in loading his hands lower. The issue I see is his swing is level vs in a upward plane. Which means line drive and ground ball to 2B if he gets on top of it.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4940&position=OF

It really comes down to BABIP with him.

2011 .260 ended up with BA .227
2012 .319 => .269
2013: .281=> .254
2014: .308 => .271
2015: .329 => .293
2016: .266=> .230
2017=> .284=> .259

so 2017 and 2013 were pretty close years. 2011 and 2016 The years that he pushed over .300 BABIP his BA got up into the .270 range. 2015 was a blip as far as his trends go and might be just solid luck or hitting to the park.

But what I took out of it was his BABIP did improve and his BA increased by .029 which is in alignment with past years.

ISO .130 better than 2016's .094 but below his career avg of .150.

over all he is not going to become something he is not. He had a career worst for the 2nd time then matched production of another year.

2017
BABIP: .284 Career avg: .300
ISO: .130 AVG: .150
SO%: 13.9 AVG: 17.6 Career best
BB 8.5 AVG: 10.4 worst year.

I take it as he can afford to add loft to his swing with that low of a SO rate and his ISO suffering. Or you lead off with him and make him a spray hitter. He puts the ball into play and needs to work on going to left and left center more.

Regardless this is something to mill on.

 

[CSF77]

old analys of him from 2013.

[video=youtube_share;340gehxF2MY]https://youtu.be/340gehxF2MY[/video]

Not sure where he went wrong because he has a very good power hitter approach early in his career. almost textbook swing.

 

[CSF77]

Compare his 25 million to Baez 590,000.

the cubs clearly will not put his bat in a pressure situation either. He led off once. He has speed, he does not strike out, but he cannot handle the pressure. When he looked good he had Bryant and Rizzo behind him, well he would have that at leadoff too.
But then they will count his 10 outfield assists and not say anything about his chances to drive in 40 or so baserunners.

The heyward we signed is not the heyward we got. Maybe our next right fielder might only save 5 outs not 10 and eventually paying him 20 million more than your productive guys just does not work.

actually he had season like that before as I posted. The 2nd vid I posted was from his 27 HR year in 2012. As shown his mechanics were right on and it translated to what he could have become. What we got was not that and Theo had him rework his swing. IDK if it will amount to much as he has become this line drive hitter over the years vs a power hitter which he could have become.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Putting the hands lower in stance is style, not substance. His loading process didn't change. His bat does not flatten soon enough. That's why he pounds so many 4-3 ground balls. Well that and his arm bar. His loading process or lack thereof I should say did not essentially change at all.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/...rrieta-darvish-davis-cobb-chatwood-many-more/

 

[CSF77]

Putting the hands lower in stance is style, not substance. His loading process didn't change. His bat does not flatten soon enough. That's why he pounds so many 4-3 ground balls. Well that and his arm bar. His loading process or lack thereof I should say did not essentially change at all.

Until he produces a season close to 2012 again it is pointless to argue it. The results improved but far from what they were aiming for.

 

[beckdawg]

And so it begins...

http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/11/10/reports-shohei-otani-has-been-posted/

 

[CSF77]

Had to guess.

NYY #1. Best fit team is play off talented. DH and history of Japan players.

Where ever Darvish lands #2. Idol

Rest of league #3. Teams will move a starter if needed

Cubs I’m guessing would put him in Iowa to get him ready for the MLB grind. Theo has a history of caution and has already been through this situation in Boston.

 

[brett05]

And so it begins...

http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/11/10/reports-shohei-otani-has-been-posted/

I called Cardinals an am sticking with that

 

[Shawon0Meter]

Hard to believe he'd go anywhere but the Yankees

 

[anotheridiot]

Had to guess.

NYY #1. Best fit team is play off talented. DH and history of Japan players.

Where ever Darvish lands #2. Idol

Rest of league #3. Teams will move a starter if needed

Cubs I’m guessing would put him in Iowa to get him ready for the MLB grind. Theo has a history of caution and has already been through this situation in Boston.

I doubt theo would put him in Iowa, he only does that if he is saving service time. This guy knows he wont get paid much the first two years, so go where they are throwing the money around, thats the dodgers.

 

[CSF77]

Listened a podcast with Jed. Only things that he gave up:

Bullpen is the hardest area but the biggest strength in a weak F/A class. Add to it the biggest focus with the pen is throwing strikes. That killed them last year. So I take it as look at F/A’s with low walk rates.

He said the roster will for the most part the same but making trades is a part of the business and they wouldn’t be doing the fans justice to not listen to ways to address needs.

Maples I feel will have to get his walk rates in check before breaking into the majors. They will use F/A to address.

Lackey he said he was happy for him and his decision but wouldn’t comment.

Ross he said made his own bed with his choices and becoming that popular. He expects more involvement but it is what it is.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Until he produces a season close to 2012 again it is pointless to argue it. The results improved but far from what they were aiming for.

I actually am an instructor as part of how I earn my living. The style changes amounted to zero. Of course he needs to swing up. The results didn't improve. The two years with the Cubs were his worst OPS+ years of his career. Last year was like winning a 100 meter dash against a one-legged kid.

 

[CSF77]

I was mostly looking at the reverse on his swing in 2012. He was in scync that year and started his swing at a lower plane vs swinging down into the zone and creating a smaller window.

I didn’t find any break downs like that on what it was in 2016-17.

But I get you. For the most part getting his hands down helps with the load-up. He needs to work on getting back to his swing path and the hip rotation and his head staying stable while rotating.

But what I did take from it was he has hit for power and most likely is a mechanic issue.

Another thing Jed said was he wants to see the hitters focusing on using the whole field. Now he didn’t mention name but you have to expect his contact guys like Jason, Almora and Baez will be working on going the other way.

 

[anotheridiot]

Yankees are looking to interview both Aaron Boone and David Ross for manager/coaching roles

 

[CSF77]

Yankees are looking to interview both Aaron Boone and David Ross for manager/coaching roles

Ross would have taken the bench gig

 

[Iceman2385]

I honestly think the Cubs have a decent shot at Otani. I think he should go to the NL, so he can hit when he pitches and pinch hit. I don't think a team will risk DHing him regularly. So I guess I see the Dodgers as the favorites, but the Cubs have a shot IMO. An AL team like the Yankees makes sense too tho.

 

[jooo83]

I honestly think the Cubs have a decent shot at Otani. I think he should go to the NL, so he can hit when he pitches and pinch hit. I don't think a team will risk DHing him regularly. So I guess I see the Dodgers as the favorites, but the Cubs have a shot IMO. An AL team like the Yankees makes sense too tho.

The Yankees and Rangers can literally offer millions more. Maybe I'm just a greedy dude but I don't understand why anyone would sign for 300k rather than 3+ million. I hope I'm wrong!

 

[beckdawg]

The Yankees and Rangers can literally offer millions more. Maybe I'm just a greedy dude but I don't understand why anyone would sign for 300k rather than 3+ million. I hope I'm wrong!

I mean while you're not entirely wrong, he chose to come to MLB this year rather than waiting 2 years and likely getting well over $200 mil. The difference between $300k and $3 mil pales in comparison to that. So it would seem that he has other clear motivations not tied to money.

I'd be surprised if he goes to the dodgers. Their loaded with pitching ready now and it would seem odd for him to want to go there with no assurance of the chance to start in the majors especially when the prevailing thought is he will want a quick re-sign to get some of the money he's missing out on by coming early. Like wise I think that SF and LAA as west coast teams are going to have trouble given their both right up against luxury tax issues similar to the dodgers. Among the playoff teams, Houston seems possible but it also seems like a weird fit. The Yankees would seem plausible. Cleveland seems like an odd choice given the small market nature of their team. The nats are loaded with pitching and would seem odd. Boston strikes me as an odd place given their top of the rotation.

Long story short, if I had to handicap it I think the front runners would be the Yankees and Cubs. But it wouldn't shock me if he went to Seattle given their history with Japanesse players. No other team strikes me as having an obvious reason for him to go there.