What Theo needs to do in 2018

[CSF77]

Yes.

Well guess with the banks money everything is gravy.

 

[CSF77]

The consensus from the national baseball media is that an NL team would risk it. One of the hidden benefits is that if he was struggling on the mound you could keep him on a regular pitching regimen while he continues to hep in the field and at the plate.

I take this as “keeping up with the Jones” approach

The NL know that the AL is more suited for a two way player and even giving him 1 AB every day as a PH will never amount to what he accumulates as a DH/Pitcher.

Otani was a DH/Pitcher in Japan. Not a LF/Pitcher.

So I get it. But I doubt Otani is going to care.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Well guess with the banks money everything is gravy.

Let's say they make a trade for Shark/Melancon, as well and then get Archer. I wouldn't be worried. Lubs me some gravy.

 

[beckdawg]

So reading the Trib article today, Hoyer says the rumored trade with SFG was made up BS. Thanks, Kap. Said Otani is "super talented" and wouldn't discuss further. Lefty bat and OF. Also stated may have to trade players from the 25 man.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-brandon-hyde-20171109-story.html


If they sign Otani, would they trade Schwarber? What could an OF of Otani. Almora and Happ look like with Harper joining them the following season? Pipe dream?

That's pretty unrealistic(Otani in LF). From the scouting I've read he's really not *that* dynamic in the outfield. The scouting I've read suggested a .250-ish bat with above average(20 or so) HR power. I mean if you wanted to play him there a la travis wood occasionally did then sure but he's not really that amazing as a starting LF. That's double when you consider LF is generally a big offensive performer.

Honestly I think people blow the idea of him batting regularly out of proportion. He's interesting because he's 23 and throws 100 MPH. I really don't think teams are going to **** with that for the novelty of a hitter/pitcher combo. It's also why I don't see the DH really mattering in his decision making. There's probably 30-50 guys in the majors you can plug in at DH and hit 20 HRs with a .250 average. That's why I've always seen the NL as far more likely. He will get the chance to bat in his pitcher plate appearances and situationally off the bench when taking out a pitcher. Jake Arrieta hit 64 PAs last year doing nothing special. If he's actually as good a hitter as would be suggested finding him another 100 or so as a pinch hitter isn't that difficult.

Regardless, from my perspective if he's an ace caliber pitcher why would you even chance wearing him down by playing him every day? And to be frank if he were demanding that sort of thing in order to sign him I think it's pretty selfish. Like if he's someone who just wants to help out by hitting whenever he's needed a la Wood/Arrieta did then no big deal. But if he's demanding to play a position and pitch that strikes me as incredibly selfish.

 

[CSF77]

The only way that Otani decides on the NL is if he looks at the history of Japanese pitchers and see’s that moving to the Majors has lead to injury on the majority.

This is due to a diffrent demand on their arms. In Japan they pitch 1 time per week and you see 120 pitch counts because they have a long break. Now they are forced into a 5 day routine and curbed into a pitch count limit. It is no wonder why there has been a history of injury looming ahead.

Then you add into this known factor a unknown factor of hitting every off day.

It just sounds too much like a recipe for disaster And his new Agent may not want to risk it.

 

[CSF77]

Let's say they make a trade for Shark/Melancon, as well and then get Archer. I wouldn't be worried. Lubs me some gravy.

Honestly on the surface it sounds gravy.

You trade your RF. Ok that puts you at plus 1 player. Happ or Baez. Doable.

Then you trade for Archer. That deal you can not lose 2 now because now you have to goto F/A and kill the cost savings.

So now you have locked up the rotation and you now want to trade off Tseng and Alzolay.

Getting creative it would take a 3rd team. Cubs trade out Alzolay, Tseng and 2 from Baez, Schwarber, Happ. Then they get back in return a OF And Archer. 3rd team gets what the Rays dont want etc. or the Cubs trade Alzolay and Tseng to a team that needs them and has a piece that the Rays want with 1 of the 3.

End of the day too many moving parts and the SFG/Cubs deal was just smoke anyways.


Edit: but for Archer and Cobb: they could sign Cobb first then trade Tseng/Alzolay for a depth player then meet Archer’s demands with the added depth. Or just make a strait 3 team deal.

I just don’t see the pieces matching up on a strait deal atm

 

[beckdawg]

Honestly I don't get why people have such a hard on for dealing Heyward. I mean sure his bat has been very underwhelming but trading him away doesn't "fix" the issues the cubs have. What Heyward is today is good leadership/work ethic and strong defense. Theo in his year end presser mentioned the cubs didn't have a ton of guys who were vocal leaders singling out Schwarber as one of those guys. Given the whole WS speech I think it's safe to assume Heyward is another. And moving Happ/Bryant to RF would severely down grade the outfield defense with Schwarber who best case is below average and many would argue worse than that. Additionally, while Heyward's bat hasn't lived up to his contract yet, he's one of the few cubs in the line up who doesn't strike out well above league average.

The whole idea just strikes me as people trying to be far to clever. And the thing is Heyward wasn't even that bad. He hit .259/.326/.389. Baez hit .273/.317/.480. Russell hit .239/.304/.418. If it weren't for the fact 2016 was a disaster for him most wouldn't be so eager to ditch him based solely on 2017's stats. I've said this probably 5 times now but compare 2017 Heyward's numbers to 2014(last year with the Braves) Heyward. In 2014 he hit .271/.351/.384. The power in 2017 was better while his batting average was slightly better in 2014 and his on base was way up in 2014. The two main reasons for that was a 10.3% walk rate in 2014 vs 8.5% in 2017(career rate is 10.4%) and a .308 BABIP in 2014 vs the .284 BABIP he had in 2017(career .300). For what its worth Heyward was a 5 win player in 2014 and you're talking about all he needs to do is have his walk rate and BABIP to return to career norms for him to reach those numbers.

My point here is that I don't think Heyward is beyond saving. And given where he is right now to move him you're almost certainly eating a hideous contract. I'd much rather they get him with Chili and try to iron out a few flaws. You're probably never going to fix all the issues with his swing and make him a prototypical slugger or whatever but even a marginal increase in his production from 2017 makes him a very valuable player.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Honestly I don't get why people have such a hard on for dealing Heyward. I mean sure his bat has been very underwhelming but trading him away doesn't "fix" the issues the cubs have. What Heyward is today is good leadership/work ethic and strong defense. Theo in his year end presser mentioned the cubs didn't have a ton of guys who were vocal leaders singling out Schwarber as one of those guys. Given the whole WS speech I think it's safe to assume Heyward is another. And moving Happ/Bryant to RF would severely down grade the outfield defense with Schwarber who best case is below average and many would argue worse than that. Additionally, while Heyward's bat hasn't lived up to his contract yet, he's one of the few cubs in the line up who doesn't strike out well above league average.

The whole idea just strikes me as people trying to be far to clever. And the thing is Heyward wasn't even that bad. He hit .259/.326/.389. Baez hit .273/.317/.480. Russell hit .239/.304/.418. If it weren't for the fact 2016 was a disaster for him most wouldn't be so eager to ditch him based solely on 2017's stats. I've said this probably 5 times now but compare 2017 Heyward's numbers to 2014(last year with the Braves) Heyward. In 2014 he hit .271/.351/.384. The power in 2017 was better while his batting average was slightly better in 2014 and his on base was way up in 2014. The two main reasons for that was a 10.3% walk rate in 2014 vs 8.5% in 2017(career rate is 10.4%) and a .308 BABIP in 2014 vs the .284 BABIP he had in 2017(career .300). For what its worth Heyward was a 5 win player in 2014 and you're talking about all he needs to do is have his walk rate and BABIP to return to career norms for him to reach those numbers.

My point here is that I don't think Heyward is beyond saving. And given where he is right now to move him you're almost certainly eating a hideous contract. I'd much rather they get him with Chili and try to iron out a few flaws. You're probably never going to fix all the issues with his swing and make him a prototypical slugger or whatever but even a marginal increase in his production from 2017 makes him a very valuable player.

No, I don't think he's beyond saving either but 88 wRC+ is a problem. Get that to 101-108 and he's not a liability.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly I don't get why people have such a hard on for dealing Heyward. I mean sure his bat has been very underwhelming but trading him away doesn't "fix" the issues the cubs have. What Heyward is today is good leadership/work ethic and strong defense. Theo in his year end presser mentioned the cubs didn't have a ton of guys who were vocal leaders singling out Schwarber as one of those guys. Given the whole WS speech I think it's safe to assume Heyward is another. And moving Happ/Bryant to RF would severely down grade the outfield defense with Schwarber who best case is below average and many would argue worse than that. Additionally, while Heyward's bat hasn't lived up to his contract yet, he's one of the few cubs in the line up who doesn't strike out well above league average.

The whole idea just strikes me as people trying to be far to clever. And the thing is Heyward wasn't even that bad. He hit .259/.326/.389. Baez hit .273/.317/.480. Russell hit .239/.304/.418. If it weren't for the fact 2016 was a disaster for him most wouldn't be so eager to ditch him based solely on 2017's stats. I've said this probably 5 times now but compare 2017 Heyward's numbers to 2014(last year with the Braves) Heyward. In 2014 he hit .271/.351/.384. The power in 2017 was better while his batting average was slightly better in 2014 and his on base was way up in 2014. The two main reasons for that was a 10.3% walk rate in 2014 vs 8.5% in 2017(career rate is 10.4%) and a .308 BABIP in 2014 vs the .284 BABIP he had in 2017(career .300). For what its worth Heyward was a 5 win player in 2014 and you're talking about all he needs to do is have his walk rate and BABIP to return to career norms for him to reach those numbers.

My point here is that I don't think Heyward is beyond saving. And given where he is right now to move him you're almost certainly eating a hideous contract. I'd much rather they get him with Chili and try to iron out a few flaws. You're probably never going to fix all the issues with his swing and make him a prototypical slugger or whatever but even a marginal increase in his production from 2017 makes him a very valuable player.

I had a random muse in Heyward but I think it holds value:

Platoon him and Almora in CF and lead off with both. They both are contact bats and a platoon split may prove to hold plus value to him.

Then move Bryant to RF and Baez to 3B. Baez adds D to 3B and there has been arguement that Bryant maybe GG calaber in the OF.

This leaves Happ open for trade still if he is viewed as a 6th man. They still owe Zobrist plenty and they have LaStella and Young to be able to move Baez to SS when needed.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Honestly on the surface it sounds gravy.

You trade your RF. Ok that puts you at plus 1 player. Happ or Baez. Doable.

Then you trade for Archer. That deal you can not lose 2 now because now you have to goto F/A and kill the cost savings.

So now you have locked up the rotation and you now want to trade off Tseng and Alzolay.

Getting creative it would take a 3rd team. Cubs trade out Alzolay, Tseng and 2 from Baez, Schwarber, Happ. Then they get back in return a OF And Archer. 3rd team gets what the Rays dont want etc. or the Cubs trade Alzolay and Tseng to a team that needs them and has a piece that the Rays want with 1 of the 3.

End of the day too many moving parts and the SFG/Cubs deal was just smoke anyways.


Edit: but for Archer and Cobb: they could sign Cobb first then trade Tseng/Alzolay for a depth player then meet Archer’s demands with the added depth. Or just make a strait 3 team deal.

I just don’t see the pieces matching up on a strait deal atm

Tampa Bay is looking straight out offense. Maybe a third player in a deal is a pitcher but they want guys that can hit in MLB right now. They think a rotation of Snell, Honeywell, Odorizzi, etc. is good enough in that division if they can score some runs. If Honeywell is the phenom people think they could be right. I think Snell is going break out huge in 2018. My issue is I think there are other teams that can help them offensively more the Cubs can.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly I don't get why people have such a hard on for dealing Heyward. I mean sure his bat has been very underwhelming but trading him away doesn't "fix" the issues the cubs have. What Heyward is today is good leadership/work ethic and strong defense. Theo in his year end presser mentioned the cubs didn't have a ton of guys who were vocal leaders singling out Schwarber as one of those guys. Given the whole WS speech I think it's safe to assume Heyward is another. And moving Happ/Bryant to RF would severely down grade the outfield defense with Schwarber who best case is below average and many would argue worse than that. Additionally, while Heyward's bat hasn't lived up to his contract yet, he's one of the few cubs in the line up who doesn't strike out well above league average.

The whole idea just strikes me as people trying to be far to clever. And the thing is Heyward wasn't even that bad. He hit .259/.326/.389. Baez hit .273/.317/.480. Russell hit .239/.304/.418. If it weren't for the fact 2016 was a disaster for him most wouldn't be so eager to ditch him based solely on 2017's stats. I've said this probably 5 times now but compare 2017 Heyward's numbers to 2014(last year with the Braves) Heyward. In 2014 he hit .271/.351/.384. The power in 2017 was better while his batting average was slightly better in 2014 and his on base was way up in 2014. The two main reasons for that was a 10.3% walk rate in 2014 vs 8.5% in 2017(career rate is 10.4%) and a .308 BABIP in 2014 vs the .284 BABIP he had in 2017(career .300). For what its worth Heyward was a 5 win player in 2014 and you're talking about all he needs to do is have his walk rate and BABIP to return to career norms for him to reach those numbers.

My point here is that I don't think Heyward is beyond saving. And given where he is right now to move him you're almost certainly eating a hideous contract. I'd much rather they get him with Chili and try to iron out a few flaws. You're probably never going to fix all the issues with his swing and make him a prototypical slugger or whatever but even a marginal increase in his production from 2017 makes him a very valuable player.

Tampa Bay is looking straight out offense. Maybe a third player in a deal is a pitcher but they want guys that can hit in MLB right now. They think a rotation of Snell, Honeywell, Odorizzi, etc. is good enough in that division if they can score some runs. If Honeywell is the phenom people think they could be right. I think Snell is going break out huge in 2018. My issue is I think there are other teams that can help them offensively more the Cubs can.

I would have to look up names but they have a 1B and SS MLB ready. They lost 2 LH bats.

So they would want a DH on the cheap or a 3B then move Longoria there.

Then they have Miller at 2B who is a void.

So going along the thought of Happ/Tseng/Alzolay for Archer it would take a 3rd team to pass over a bat that Tampa could use with Happ at 2B.

The more I really think about it they would be better off targeting Nola

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I would have to look up names but they have a 1B and SS MLB ready. They lost 2 LH bats.

So they would want a DH on the cheap or a 3B then move Longoria there.

Then they have Miller at 2B who is a void.

So going along the thought of Happ/Tseng/Alzolay for Archer it would take a 3rd team to pass over a bat that Tampa could use with Happ at 2B.

The more I really think about it they would be better off targeting Nola

Adames, the SS, is ready but isn't a huge offensive threat and I think you're thinking of Brendan McKay at 1B but he's a two way player and they haven't decided how to use him yet. In either case he'll start in AA. You might also be thinking about Jake Bauers who should be a good LH bat but really doesn't have the power for the position.

 

[beckdawg]

No, I don't think he's beyond saving either but 88 wRC+ is a problem. Get that to 101-108 and he's not a liability.

Agreed but again pointing to the marginal difference between 2014 and 2017... he had a 109 wRC+ in 2014. So I mean you're really just talking about his walks ticking up to career norms and a little better BABIP luck. Honestly I wonder how much of this all revolves around Mallee. Both came to the cubs at the same time and obviously the cubs had reasons for firing him. Heyward's always had issues with his swing but there's a pretty clear difference between his time with the cubs and his time with STL/ATL.

I hate to just throw shit like that on the hitting coach but I really struggle to see how a player who is coming into his prime has his two worst years hitting out of no where. And I remember one of the things headed into 2016 with Heyward was they talked about adjusting his approach to get more power in his swing which clearly didn't work. Frankly at this point I'd be perfectly fine if he were just a line drive machine and ignored a lot of the power that could be there.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly I don't get why people have such a hard on for dealing Heyward. I mean sure his bat has been very underwhelming but trading him away doesn't "fix" the issues the cubs have. What Heyward is today is good leadership/work ethic and strong defense. Theo in his year end presser mentioned the cubs didn't have a ton of guys who were vocal leaders singling out Schwarber as one of those guys. Given the whole WS speech I think it's safe to assume Heyward is another. And moving Happ/Bryant to RF would severely down grade the outfield defense with Schwarber who best case is below average and many would argue worse than that. Additionally, while Heyward's bat hasn't lived up to his contract yet, he's one of the few cubs in the line up who doesn't strike out well above league average.

The whole idea just strikes me as people trying to be far to clever. And the thing is Heyward wasn't even that bad. He hit .259/.326/.389. Baez hit .273/.317/.480. Russell hit .239/.304/.418. If it weren't for the fact 2016 was a disaster for him most wouldn't be so eager to ditch him based solely on 2017's stats. I've said this probably 5 times now but compare 2017 Heyward's numbers to 2014(last year with the Braves) Heyward. In 2014 he hit .271/.351/.384. The power in 2017 was better while his batting average was slightly better in 2014 and his on base was way up in 2014. The two main reasons for that was a 10.3% walk rate in 2014 vs 8.5% in 2017(career rate is 10.4%) and a .308 BABIP in 2014 vs the .284 BABIP he had in 2017(career .300). For what its worth Heyward was a 5 win player in 2014 and you're talking about all he needs to do is have his walk rate and BABIP to return to career norms for him to reach those numbers.

My point here is that I don't think Heyward is beyond saving. And given where he is right now to move him you're almost certainly eating a hideous contract. I'd much rather they get him with Chili and try to iron out a few flaws. You're probably never going to fix all the issues with his swing and make him a prototypical slugger or whatever but even a marginal increase in his production from 2017 makes him a very valuable player.

Adames, the SS, is ready but isn't a huge offensive threat and I think you're thinking of Brendan McKay at 1B but he's a two way player and they haven't decided how to use him yet. In either case he'll start in AA. You might also be thinking about Jake Bauers who should be a good LH bat but really doesn't have the power for the position.

It was Bauers

 

[CSF77]

Heyward did improve last year. .266 BABIP to .284. He was at .300 plus. Walk rate was a 8.4 so league avg. SO 13.9 which is a all time low.

IDK maybe it takes time for his new swing to settle but there has been improvement. Just not this power that you expect from a guy his size.

 

[beckdawg]

Not sure that money matters here but it's interesting that these are the only teams with the ability to spend more on Otani than the cubs

Texas Rangers — $3,535,000
New York Yankees — $3,250,000
Minnesota Twins — $3,245,000
Pittsburgh Pirates — $2,266,750
Miami Marlins — $1,740,000
Seattle Mariners — $1,570,500
Philadelphia Phillies — $900,000
Milwaukee Brewers — $765,000
Arizona Diamondbacks — $731,250
Baltimore Orioles — $660,000
Boston Red Sox — $462,000
Tampa Bay Rays — $440,500

 

[CSF77]

I’m thinking with his choice of agencies and their history of extending deals he maybe thinking of a match based off a handshake deal that they give him a mega extend like Kershaw got.

It would make the bonus look like peanuts.

Add to it he could work a deal with Nippon to under the table some to get the union’s nose out of it. 20 mil is chump change when you are talking a 300 mil deal

 

[chibears55]

Can't believe people still use W/L records...

Doug Fister 3.28 Era and 4-12 that year.

Kuroda 2.78 ERA and 7-13 that year

Zimmerman 3.12 and 6-9 that year

Lincecum 2.77 and 9-9 that year.

And the infamous Anthony Young lost 27 straight over 220 innings and had a 2 war and under 4 ERA.

This is just a few randoms of probably hundreds of cases where pitchers were great but they played on shitty offenses.

It not just for 1 season..
He under for his career and his ERA over 4 and Whip over 1.2..

We just to say he a bad luck pitcher?
That the case then we dont need his bad luck

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

It not just for 1 season..
He under for his career and his ERA over 4 and Whip over 1.2..

We just to say he a bad luck pitcher?
That the case then we dont need his bad luck

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

You must really hate Lester then

 

[anotheridiot]

to assume Heyward is another. And moving Happ/Bryant to RF would severely down grade the outfield defense with Schwarber who best case is below average and many would argue worse than that. Additionally, while Heyward's bat hasn't lived up to his contract yet, he's one of the few cubs in the line up who doesn't strike out well above league average.

The whole idea just strikes me as people trying to be far to clever. And the thing is Heyward wasn't even that bad. He hit .259/.326/.389. Baez hit .273/.317/.480. Russell hit .239/.304/.418. If it weren't for the fact 2016 was a disaster for him most wouldn't be so eager to ditch him based solely on 2017's stats. I've said this probably 5 times now but compare 2017 Heyward's numbers to 2014(last year with the Braves) Heyward. In 2014 he hit .271/.351/.384. The power in 2017 was better while his batting average was slightly better in 2014 and his on base was way up in 2014. The two main reasons for that was a 10.3% walk rate in 2014 vs 8.5% in 2017(career rate is 10.4%) and a .308 BABIP in 2014 vs the .284 BABIP he had in 2017(career .300). For what its worth Heyward was a 5 win player



You must really hate Lester then

Compare his 25 million to Baez 590,000.

the cubs clearly will not put his bat in a pressure situation either. He led off once. He has speed, he does not strike out, but he cannot handle the pressure. When he looked good he had Bryant and Rizzo behind him, well he would have that at leadoff too.
But then they will count his 10 outfield assists and not say anything about his chances to drive in 40 or so baserunners.

The heyward we signed is not the heyward we got. Maybe our next right fielder might only save 5 outs not 10 and eventually paying him 20 million more than your productive guys just does not work.