What Theo needs to do in 2018

[Parade_Rain]

Like flipping a coin. Over the long haul, it is less snd less due to the team not scoring when you pitch.

Pitch for avteam that has no range defensively? Yes, it will cost you. Think Mike Leake in St Louis. Team absolutely has an effect. No argument. But there is NO way it is accurate to say a pitcher has little to no effect on his record. That’s simply not so.

Epstein does not offer a contract to a pitcher based upon ERA. Fact!

 

[DanTown]

Like flipping a coin. Over the long haul, it is less snd less due to the team not scoring when you pitch.

Pitch for avteam that has no range defensively? Yes, it will cost you. Think Mike Leake in St Louis. Team absolutely has an effect. No argument. But there is NO way it is accurate to say a pitcher has little to no effect on his record. That’s simply not so.

Jeff Z pitching record by run allowed (went at least six innings)

0 runs
3 Times
1-0

1 run
5 Times
2-0

2 runs
3 Times
2-0

3 runs
9 Times
2-6

Like, we have better stats to evaluate pitchers than their record. Why on God’s earth would we not use them?

 

[chibears55]

Jeff Z pitching record by run allowed (went at least six innings)

0 runs
3 Times
1-0

1 run
5 Times
2-0

2 runs
3 Times
2-0

3 runs
9 Times
2-6

Like, we have better stats to evaluate pitchers than their record. Why on God’s earth would we not use them?

No doubt there better stats out there that can make a SP look sexy..
But
How sexy can you make a guy after 6 years of constantly under .500 and has ERAs in the 4s


What stat going to tell you that at age 33 34 and 35 that he going to be worth 20 mil per to all of a sudden win games now..

I mean that is the main result were looking for at end of the game... Did they win?
That answer for Samardzija has been NO in most of his starts

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

Let’s see. A bunch of crappy Cubs teams and a crappy Sox team then on a play off Giants team put up a 12-11 then another crappy team.

And you want to bash the guy for being stuck on crappy teams?

He has been a 2.7 WAR pitcher and last year he put up a 3.8. In 2014 When the Cubs sold him for Russell he had 13 losses but peaked at 4.1 WAR.

This is why W/L do not factor in pitchers value.

If I give up 6 runs and my team puts up 14 I get a win. I sucked but got a badge showing how great I am.

If I give up a 1st pitch HR then go on to no hit the rest of the game but my team just went cold that day and got shut out then I suck. Yep a L means I suck now.

See how stupid that sounds.

 

[CSF77]

It is kinda beating a dead horse but Shark is worth 20 mil per at that age. Lackey was avg 16 mil per at the next phase on a pitchers career so 20 mil per is not a reach for a guy moving into his twilight.

I look at it as he has avg 200 Plus for 5 years in a row. So you go into it knowing that you are locked into a 200 IP arm which takes innings off the blow pen.

As far as the rest of his numbers he avg’s a shade under a SO per inning and 1 BB per 3 innings pitched. So he can get a strike out when needed and really doesn’t beat himself with free passes.

Everything else is pretty much BABIP related. Are they making hard contact? Sense the Cubs converted him to a full time starter his low has been .283 and high .303. Pretty much league avg.

Looking at him from a unbiased viewpoint he is a MOR arm that helps stabilize your staff. He is not a TOR and is not a guy that would be concidered a core franchise player.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It is kinda beating a dead horse but Shark is worth 20 mil per at that age. Lackey was avg 16 mil per at the next phase on a pitchers career so 20 mil per is not a reach for a guy moving into his twilight.

I look at it as he has avg 200 Plus for 5 years in a row. So you go into it knowing that you are locked into a 200 IP arm which takes innings off the blow pen.

As far as the rest of his numbers he avg’s a shade under a SO per inning and 1 BB per 3 innings pitched. So he can get a strike out when needed and really doesn’t beat himself with free passes.

Everything else is pretty much BABIP related. Are they making hard contact? Sense the Cubs converted him to a full time starter his low has been .283 and high .303. Pretty much league avg.

Looking at him from a unbiased viewpoint he is a MOR arm that helps stabilize your staff. He is not a TOR and is not a guy that would be concidered a core franchise player.

I even went lower than you in terms of rating him. I said he was a 4 who could often pitch like a 3. The people who are ignoring his peripherals in determining his worth have some other bias going on. If he were to be the Lackey replacement he would be an upgrade. Period. No one is saying he's an Arrieta replacement.

 

[TL1961]

Epstein does not offer a contract to a pitcher based upon ERA. Fact!

Good!
I agree with his approach. Fact!

 

[CSF77]

For sure. I wouldn’t target him as a F/A signing at all but he gives value. The fact that he comes in every start and you can pretty much bank on his production gives value. Is he a guy that you want in a pivot game? No but he is not making what those guys are.

 

[anotheridiot]

This has nothing to do with who we get back. Its getting out of this Heyward contract.

Maybe he opts out and signs for 8 million a year somewhere, but I highly doubt there will be any bidding wars and San Fran has clearly not worked out for Shark and Melancon. Get these two, use Melancon for the 8th, sign Davis for the ninth and you are in business. Resign Jake and you are looking at Lester, Jake, Q, Hendricks, Shark or do what you usually do and put Hendricks 5th again.

These young studs smile and say the right thing all the time, but how can you expect so much from the likes of KB, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Contrares when a guy is out there doing none of it for 25 million.

Great guy, great presence, but seriously, human nature counts.

 

[CSF77]

Actually it makes a arguement that supports Boras on Jake. Jake is a pivot starter and should command closer to 30 per than 20

 

[CSF77]

This has nothing to do with who we get back. Its getting out of this Heyward contract.

Maybe he opts out and signs for 8 million a year somewhere, but I highly doubt there will be any bidding wars and San Fran has clearly not worked out for Shark and Melancon. Get these two, use Melancon for the 8th, sign Davis for the ninth and you are in business. Resign Jake and you are looking at Lester, Jake, Q, Hendricks, Shark or do what you usually do and put Hendricks 5th again.

These young studs smile and say the right thing all the time, but how can you expect so much from the likes of KB, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Contrares when a guy is out there doing none of it for 25 million.

Great guy, great presence, but seriously, human nature counts.

SFG pretty much axed that rumor. Still believe the trade is worth it.

I feel a GG doesn’t justify his contract. His bat has to and it has been inferior to his piers.

You could say if he and Almora platooned CF and you opened up playing time for Happ and Baez you would be better off.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Can't believe people still use W/L records...

Doug Fister 3.28 Era and 4-12 that year.

Kuroda 2.78 ERA and 7-13 that year

Zimmerman 3.12 and 6-9 that year

Lincecum 2.77 and 9-9 that year.

And the infamous Anthony Young lost 27 straight over 220 innings and had a 2 war and under 4 ERA.

This is just a few randoms of probably hundreds of cases where pitchers were great but they played on shitty offenses.

 

[beckdawg]

A name to watch headed into the next IFA period is Julio Pablo Martinez. He just defected and given where teams are with IFA money the thought is he waits til the new period opens in july to sign. That's good news for the cubs as they are out of penalty.

On what he is.... he hit .333/.469/.498 in cuba's highest league as a 21 year old. He also stole 20 in 57 games. He's also a CF so that sort of bat plays even better and judging by his steal total must have pretty decent range. Baseball america guesses he will start in A+ or AA when signed. That'll be interesting if the cubs nab him given their weakness because of trades.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

A name to watch headed into the next IFA period is Julio Pablo Martinez. He just defected and given where teams are with IFA money the thought is he waits til the new period opens in july to sign. That's good news for the cubs as they are out of penalty.

On what he is.... he hit .333/.469/.498 in cuba's highest league as a 21 year old. He also stole 20 in 57 games. He's also a CF so that sort of bat plays even better and judging by his steal total must have pretty decent range. Baseball america guesses he will start in A+ or AA when signed. That'll be interesting if the cubs nab him given their weakness because of trades.

They'll target him for sure and there's little doubt he'll wait until July, there just aren't enough teams to form a competitive market before then with LA, Boston and the Cubs being in the penalty.

 

[Parade_Rain]

So reading the Trib article today, Hoyer says the rumored trade with SFG was made up BS. Thanks, Kap. Said Otani is "super talented" and wouldn't discuss further. Lefty bat and OF. Also stated may have to trade players from the 25 man.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-brandon-hyde-20171109-story.html


If they sign Otani, would they trade Schwarber? What could an OF of Otani. Almora and Happ look like with Harper joining them the following season? Pipe dream?

 

[anotheridiot]

SFG pretty much axed that rumor. Still believe the trade is worth it.

I feel a GG doesn’t justify his contract. His bat has to and it has been inferior to his piers.

You could say if he and Almora platooned CF and you opened up playing time for Happ and Baez you would be better off.

They did not ax the rumor, they axed the fact that they would take back his entire contract. Figure it would cost the cubs upwards of 30 million to make the deal.

I hate to go back to how Black players felt they were treated at wrigley field, but that seems to be the only opt out option, other than just flat benching him 60 games and his desire to try to go somewhere he can play every day again.

Still scratching my head on the signing of him and fowler.

 

[anotheridiot]

So reading the Trib article today, Hoyer says the rumored trade with SFG was made up BS. Thanks, Kap. Said Otani is "super talented" and wouldn't discuss further. Lefty bat and OF. Also stated may have to trade players from the 25 man.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-brandon-hyde-20171109-story.html


If they sign Otani, would they trade Schwarber? What could an OF of Otani. Almora and Happ look like with Harper joining them the following season? Pipe dream?

But can Otani catch?

 

[CSF77]

So reading the Trib article today, Hoyer says the rumored trade with SFG was made up BS. Thanks, Kap. Said Otani is "super talented" and wouldn't discuss further. Lefty bat and OF. Also stated may have to trade players from the 25 man.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-brandon-hyde-20171109-story.html


If they sign Otani, would they trade Schwarber? What could an OF of Otani. Almora and Happ look like with Harper joining them the following season? Pipe dream?

Would you risk your #4 starter running into the ivy? Or a sliding catch? Or diving into the stands for a foul?

That stuff happens every day

 

[Parade_Rain]

Would you risk your #4 starter running into the ivy? Or a sliding catch? Or diving into the stands for a foul?

That stuff happens every day

Yes.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Would you risk your #4 starter running into the ivy? Or a sliding catch? Or diving into the stands for a foul?

That stuff happens every day

The consensus from the national baseball media is that an NL team would risk it. One of the hidden benefits is that if he was struggling on the mound you could keep him on a regular pitching regimen while he continues to hep in the field and at the plate.